Monday, February 16, 2015
Scouting the 2015 Draft: Beau Burrows
Beau Burrows is one of my favorite prospects in the 2015 draft class and I would definitely put him on my short list of players I would not be disappointed in if the Giants drafted him in the first round. He's a 6'2", 195 lb RHP who consistently hits 96 MPH on radar guns and averages 93-95. The intriguing part to me is he also ranked #6 in Trackman measured spin rate on his fastball and the PG AA game, a measurement that correlates with swinging strikes. He also threw the highest percentage of strikes with the FB at 82% at the World Wood Bat gathering. On video, he has powerful rock and fire delivery that is eminently repeatable. He adds in a nasty breaking ball that is already a plus pitch and a changeup that is a bit on the firm side, but has some fade. One criticism is lack of physical projection, but my goodness! How much projection do you need if you are already hitting 96 MPH? BA has him ranked at #35 in their early 2015 draft rankings. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has him at #27. He would be an absolute steal at #31 for the Giants, but I believe he will end up being drafted much earlier. Again, I would not be disappointed if the Giants grabbed him at #18, but I could see him going even higher.
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Sometimes I really wonder about scouts, writers, etc. And what I mean is that they stop looking at the whole-player concept -- production, skills and intangibles -- a player has as they chase 'potential.' So guys who are really good players with solid production and clearly have the physical attributes necessary to play professional sports, but don't have those undeveloped 'upsides' drop while guys who are high on potential, but spotty production, rise.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, if a guy is hitting 96 and is comfortable at 93-to-95, as long as he's got command and can spot that FB appropriately, he's got one + pitch already. And if he's got two plus pitchers (FB & breaking ball) and one or two more half-way decent pitches he's got as much as Bumgarner and many other starting pitchers.
If Burrows' FB was 90 MPH and another kid who is 6'5", and on the thin side, but with good bone structure was also hitting 90 MPH, you would obviously prefer the kid who has potential to get stronger and increase his velocity. Now, if the projectable kid is and Burrows are both hitting 96, but the "projectable" kid has a wild hair up his nose, well, how likely is it that the "projectable" kid is going to both add significant velocity and improve his command? Probably not very likely. So yeah, in that situation, I would prefer Burrows and definitely prefer him over a "projectable" kid who is throwing 90 MPH now, because there is no guarantee that the "projectable" kid is going to ever hit 96 let alone go above that.
DeleteIf a guy like Burrows is ranked in the 25-35 range, that just solidifies the mindset that the Giants *could* decide to go the 2011 route, taking the best hitter available with their first round pick, then going after a power pitcher with that supplemental #31. At this very early point in the game, there are a number of strong prep and college pitchers that should still be available at that time.
ReplyDeleteNot that high school stats matter too much, but of all the profiles I've been researching lately, Burrows has some of the most eye-popping numbers I've come across.
For his career, he owns a 1.26 ERA and a 23-4 record over 184 IP (32 starts), with 262 k (12.8 k/9) and 68 bb (3.3 bb/9). In a state like Texas, that's no joke!
I agree. This draft is a bit thin on hitters, so I think the Giants could very well go hitter in the first round if the right one is available, just because the right hitter might not be there in the supplemental round and second round, but a good pitcher will be.
DeleteBurrows fits the profile of the type of HS pitcher they have gone for- excellent command of a plus fastball, a high ceiling guy who is also advanced and can move fast despite being so young. Donny Everett fits that description too. I have not researched Nikorak yet, but he might too.
Nikorak looks and sounds like Madison Bumgarner from the right side to me. 6-5, 225, 97 mph fastball, potential plus breaking ball and a changeup that's (according to Perfect Game) at least 15 mph slower than his heater. They comment that he's a good student as well. Another guy who could very well be a top 10 pick, or a sweet, sweet steal if he falls to the middle of the 1st round (or even supplemental).
DeleteMy dream draft for the Giants would be Alonzo Jones at #18 and one of the HS power pitchers at #31.
DeleteI think we're in the same boat DrB. Jones, Trenton Clark, Nick Plummer, Chris Betts... there's a lot of high upside HS hitters that could be available in that spot. If history tells us anything, I would probably be willing to put money down that they go for a college hitter in that spot though. If not, my gut says they'd go for the top pitcher on their board.
DeleteKiley McDaniel released his top 200 MLB prospects today (or yesterday). He ranked the top 140 (grade 50 and above), then listed the remaining 60 by team (grade 45 players by his standard). Susac made the top 100, while Beede and Crick were ranked pretty close together in the 120-140 range. Ironically, he had Derek Hill... the CF I was hoping the Giants would draft last year... exactly two spots ahead of Beede. It'll be very interesting to see how their respective careers play out.
DeleteArroyo was the only Giant listed in the bottom 60, FWIW.
If Ian Happ is there at #18, I think that's the pick. I think Jones may have more upside, but it would be hard to argue with Happ.
DeleteI was looking at Kiley's list. There are quite a few that I don't necessarily agree with his placement on. Probably Williamson's injury kept him off the list, but I think he deserves to be on there somewhere too. Possibly Blackburn. Probably too early for Edie, but I'm thinking he might make it next year or the year after.