Friday, December 19, 2014

Hot Stove Update: Giants Fill 3B Hole With Casey McGehee

The Giants filled their 3B hole today with a reported trade for Casey McGehee from the Marlins.  McGehee has had an up and down career including a stint in Japan in 2013.  He is coming off a return season to MLB in which he had a solid BA for the Marlins but almost no power.  He was a late bloomer who got started on his MLB career late so is still arbitration eligible at the age of 32.  MBLTR estimates that he will make $3.5 M through arbitration this year.  After initial rumors had the Giants shipping out Matt Duffy and/or Hunter Strickland, they ended up giving the Marlins RHP's Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo.  I had Flores at #21 in my preliminary Top 50 prospect list with Castillo as an Honorable Mention at best.  Flores has displayed solid K rates with very low BB's indication plus command at an early stage of development.  On the other hand, he has been more hittable than you would like from a top pitching prospect.  Flores has probably been passed by both Keury Mella and Michael Santos in rankings of Giants pitching prospects.

McGehee was not what I had in mind for the 3B position, but you could argue he was the best available 3B after Chase Headley was taken off the market.  McGehee comes dirt cheap compared to Headley and Headley is not without his risks, so this is a low risk deal for the Giants which could pay decent dividends.  If it allows some flexibility to fill other needs, either in the offseason or in midseason, it is even better.

McGehee's batting line last year was .287/.355/.357, 29 2B, 4 HR, 4 SB, 9.7% BB, 14.8% K, 177 H, 691 PA.  Just for a point of reference, McGehee had the 13'th most hits in MLB last year.  In fact, his nickname in Miami was Hits McGehee!  His OBP would have been second on the Giants after Buster Posey, his 29 doubles would have tied for 2'nd with Hunter Pence.  His 56 Runs would have been 4'th on the team and his 76 RBI's would have been 3'rd.  The question of course is whether he can sustain that level of production. It came with a BABIP of .335.

32 comments:

  1. Doc, we need a header from you:

    "Sabean throws in the towel for 2015"

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  2. I've liked Kendry Flores for a pretty long while. But he hasn't been able to develop all that quickly. Still young enough, still somewhat projectable. But didn't he also end the 2014 season with a shoulder injury?

    All noted, I think it a fair trade. One year of a pretty decent MLB hitter for some young arms with a bit of upside, but also risk they'll never see The Show. What I'm not loving is getting yet another one-year rental. Wait, you say he's got two years of control left? How's that? Well, okay then. McGehee won't be a #4 hitter. But might do alright. I actually think it would be nice to see him bat 8th, move Crawford up to 7th. But we'll have to see who is playing LF. My expectation is that it's Blanco.

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    1. I think McGehee can not be a FA until the summer of 2016..Decent control if he works..Can see him towards the bottom (7/8) or even the #2 hole depending on how PANIK fares..Good to have options

      SteveVA

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    2. nope, he goes fa at end of 2015 season

      bacci

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    3. Hey Bacci..Thanks..My bad...I read the following....
      2015 Status: 3rd-Year Arb Eligible, Earliest Arb Eligible: 2013, Earliest Free Agent: 2016...

      Thought that meant AFTER the 2016 season

      SteveVA

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    4. Sorry, I thought I had read somewhere that there was 2 years of arbitration involved. It's just one. Fixed. Still an OK deal, IMO.

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    5. I will stick with what I posted yesterday, that the Giants should have no trouble re-signing McGehee if they want to for 2016. He would go on the FA market as a journeyman in his thirties at a cost larger than $3M or whatever he gets for 2015. I think I saw that he might get $3M if he went to arbitration. He is not likely to be a hot item next post-season. This eases my doubt about him as a rental.

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  3. I gave my thoughts in the other post but another thing I read about McGehee was that he slumped in the season's second half, hitting .243 overall compared to .319 in the first half. Can't say that is surprising for a palyer his age just returniung to the STATES to play in the heat of MIAMI and given that he PLAYED 160 GAMES!!! You keep him fresh and well rested in SF and perhaps his power numbers come back to some of his previous years...then you really have a good deal...This could be a real SABEAN SPECIAL which I am liking more than my first reaction...

    STILL NEED SOME POWER IN LF...CRAIG would do nicely and Please God no SD Padre castoffs!!!!

    SteveVA

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    1. Funny, but Blanco did virtually the opposite. Hit .220ish before the All-Star break and almost .300 after.

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  4. SteveVA,

    You are right in Maybin and Venable but I think Seth Smith is a decent hitter. Excellent eye. 69BB vs 87K. 31 2B, 5 3B and 12 HR. Is under control until 2017 at around $7M per year. Defense is about average. Good for about 3 WAR per year. Since Padres just got 3 starters they might give him away. I wouldn't mind him platooning with Blanco. We would give up a lot less than someone like Craig. Craig will make up give up a major prospect and/or Susac. Pass on Craig unless the prospects are very low level.

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    1. Right you are Roger on Seth Smith..I just don't see SD trading him here but they will gladly send us Venable or Maybin! No thanks! And ditto on Denorfria! Unless he can hit against us!

      I like Craig a lot and expect him to return to his former level but, you're right, Craig would indeed cost more Still, I'm not as adverse to giving up prospects as you are (that's what most of them are there for) especially for somebody under control for more than a few years..All moot because we don't seem a match for Boston nor does sabean seem ready to give up any prospects that matter.

      SteveVA

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    2. SD is going to have to release some people, so whoever picks them up gets them for free. Might not happen before the end of spring training, though.

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    3. Chris Denorfia is with Seattle. He was traded at the deadline last year.

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    4. Seth Smith is L-L, like Blanco, with more power, more $$, less speed, less field, not a candidate to platoon, awful choice!

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  5. He hasn't done much in the last couple of years but legendary Giant tormenter Scott Hairston is out there still. Let's get him on a minor league contract...could be passable platoon partner for Blanco if he makes the club, and buys us a bit of time to evaluate prospects like Mac and Carbonell. This would also leave us with funds to pursue Moncada.

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  6. Sabes like em older and cheaper. Marlon Byrd is right up Sabean's alley. Welcome him into left field with Journey's Open Arms playing.

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  7. Well, it could be worse... And he gives us another year or two to find a high quality replacement. Which may, or may not, include Ryder Jones as part of the replacement pool. Or, who knows, the guy could play well and keep the job.

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  8. Giants are learning how to sign free agents...give them all no-trade protection!

    I'm kind of lost here on salary cap Dr. B. If you give player a signing bonus. Is that money counted against the cap? Peavy will get 11 million in 2015, but 4 million of it in bonus. So, did Giants add 7 million towards cap or 11 million? I know Lester received a big signing bonus also...just trying to figure it out.

    If signing bonus doesn't count against cap... could you hypothetically give Mad Max a contract that gives him the Kershaw money he wants. Say a 20 million signing bonus, but in salary he gets 10 million for 2015? It will be 30 million total, but the way the contract is set up it keeps Giants from luxury tax? Am I right or wrong on this theory? If I'm wrong forget everything I just wrote!

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    1. There is not salary cap. There is a Luxury Tax Threshold that the Giants have said they do not want to go beyond. I only have a rough estimate of what the threshold is. I have no idea payroll is calculated in terms of the Luxury Tax and I don't care. The Giants are either going to go above it or they aren't. Don't care about that either. The Giants have said the Romo, Peavy and McGehee acquisitions do not preclude other additions. I will take them at their word on that and not worry about the Luxury Tax.

      I would add that the fact the Giants apparently made a serious offer to Jon Lester tells me that what we think we know about the Luxury Tax is wrong or the Giants have decided they are not constrained by it.

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    2. I am not 100% sure but I believe the signing bonus is spread out over the contract. So I think $2M would count against the cap this year and $2M next year. So, a total of $9M would count this year and $15M next year.

      Don't quote me on this but I think that is how it works.

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    3. I think Roger is right, the signing bonus is spread out over the length of the contract. The penalty for the first year going over the tax is 17.5% of the amount you go over. It goes up to 30% the second consecutive year followed by 40% then tops out at 50% the 4th year and stays there. If a team that exceeds the tax drops below the threshold the following year then the tax rate resets.

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  9. You play 160 games in Miami, you're healthy!
    Giants' success won't depend on McGehee though: it's the Big 3 who totaled barely 170 games in 2014 (Belt 61, Pagan 96, Cain 15). With "full" seasons from them, the 2015 Giants arguably are as good as the 2014 WS champs.

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    1. Arguably is the word because I thin kwe're going to have to be better than last year's bonus wild card gift...Also we really don't know what a full year of Belt really is..Had one Decent "year" for a 1B..other then that, some promise but alos, injuries and struggles...Agree on Pagan...and Cain though..Both need to be healthy..To me that still won't be the only thing that matters....The age of Hudson..the inconsistencies of Timmy..Will Panik and Pence repeat...I'd feel MUCH better with another starter or, more likely, a bat with some decent power in LF..It's gonna be real hard.

      SteveVA

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    2. When we've won, we had the roll of the dice our way--multiple lightning in bottles, key pitching performances, etc. When we've lost, it rolled the other way--Posey's injury was too much to come back from, other injuries, bad performances, etc. We have a nice team and a great coach; that gets us a shot. But it will (and always does) take timing. Washington and the Dodgers know all about that.

      I like how we're set up for the longer term. Yes, we have three guys who can get gassed in the starting rotation. But I actually like the Peavy move--he brings some fire in his belly. And if we can be competitive through the All Star Break, we have guys like Blackburn ready to contribute (which also sets us up nicely for 2016 rotation).

      In terms of OF, I have a similar view. Carbonell will be in AAA, Mac will hopefully be in AA, you've guys like Parker/Horan who can be the next Panik. Sets up nicely for a catalyst at break and next year.

      The one hole is 3b, where we don't seem to have anyone. So something has to give. I would think Duffy will get a shot to play there or maybe they will take Panik up on his offer to move. This moves gives us some insurance if that doesn't work (I would think that maybe they experiment a bit but let McGehee start, working in Duffy/Panik on off days to see what happens). That's fine. Not sure if his defense is as good as Panda's, and his offense is probably not as good as "hot Panda" but maybe ok compared to "cold Panda".

      I do believe a year of Belt and Pagan helps a lot. We never really had much Brandon last year, and Morse/Panda never seemed to be firing at the same time. So if we get more from Belt, and since we know we get more from the black hole that was 2b, we should have a decent offense.

      Best part three high round draft choices to go after a 3b, without giving up anything for it. While Flores was a nice pitcher, he wasn't in BAs top 20 and I think they have 7 or 8 SPs in the first 11 (Meija, Mela, Stratton, Crick, Blackburn, Blach, Beede, Ysla--sorry if I butchered any spellings there). Even if you don't agree with the rankings, there is a full rotation plus in that list beyond Flores, and we have MadBum and Cain (we hope). Gotta break some eggs.

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    3. As I mentioned, I had Flores penciled in at #21 in my preliminary Giants Top 50 Prospects.

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    4. Flores was 22 (I believe) on my list. I finally got around to posting my top 50 yesterday. I'm excited to see yours this year Doc, and how they match up and differ.

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  10. Dr. B.Good shit kicking the facts in the last paragraph.I'll take that all day.

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  11. casey is a bay area boy, he isnt an obese fat body, has a stable home life, will hit for average and play a solid corner

    im happy

    bacci

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  12. Bet good money that McGehee outperforms The Panda against LHP. OK, that's a gimmee, but Giants W-L record against LHP is not so good. This will help, and gives Boche an option agaainst LHP to swap with Panik. I like the trade very much: they did cll him Hit McGehee in Miami.
    Boche talks about going light on Bum, out early. Should be the same for Hudson -- he flat ran out of gas at the end although he had a great Game 2 against Nats and G's got the win with a Save going to Matt Williams. He will learn, but Boche rung up the new guy!

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  13. I'd take a flyer on Carlos Quentin if the Padres are still in the dealing mode. If he's healthy he'd produce at least what Morse gave us and play a better left field. Padres would have to take some of his salary but if they were willing, I'd do it.

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    1. If the Giants were willing to put up with crappy defense in LF, they would have just re-signed Morse. They loved the guy and what he brought to the clubhouse. There just wasn't a place for him to play. Just forget about Carlos Quentin!

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