The current Giants tend to fall behind early and give up leads late. Not a good combination! This game, it was the latter as Jeremy Affeldt messed a clean bed made for him by the brilliant pitching of Madison Bumgarner and a 3 run HR by Michael Morse to cough up a 3-1 lead and ultimately the game. Key Lines:
Angel Pagan- 2 for 5, 2B. BA= .308. Pagan has hit on all 7 games since his return from the DL for a .312 clip right about his season average. He also made a nice sliding catch of a blooper in CF to help Bummy shut down a Phillies' rally.
Pablo Sandoval- 3 for 5, 2B. BA= .283. Pablo's salary drive continues! When he's in shape, he's one of the best in baseball at the position. Can he stay in shape for 5 years?
Michael Morse- 1 for 2, HR(16), BB. BA= .276. Morse let a soft flyball fall in front of him for a hit earlier in the game that drew the ire of the fans in attendance. It ended up not costing any runs. He more than made up for hit with a beautiful 3 run dinger to drive in all of the Giants runs. For awhile, it looked like it would be enough. He hit another bomb to Triples Alley that might have travelled farther, but was caught by Marlon Byrd near the warning track. When Morse's bat is hot, you can tolerate his defense and maybe it's heating up?
Joe Panik- 2 for 4. BA= .264. Panik is hitting .389 over his last 10 games. He needs to move up in the lineup already! Duvall may have more power, but he's still searching for contact at the MLB level. Panik's basehits from the 6 hole could keep rallies going a bit longer. As it is, Panik is hitting in the middle of a reverse donut with Duvall and Crawford providing empty space around him.
Madison Bumgarner- 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K's. ERA= 3.14. Bumgarner was on fire. The Phillies broadcast team was already talking perfect game by the 4'th inning. Of course that's where it ended. Bummy was throwing too many pitches for K's on 3-2. Other than that, it was one of his best pitched games of the year, and he's had some good ones.
Jeremy Affeldt- 1.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 2.05. I was watching the game and didn't see it, but apparently Affeldt slipped while making the gopher pitch to Cody Asche. Maybe he did. I'll have to go look at the video. Affeldt has been a great Giant, but he does run hot and cold, and he's been cold for a week or two now. I'll say this though, regardless of whether he slipped or not, or whether it as a hit-me pitch, that ball did not look like a HR coming off the bat. Asche basically hit a pop-up out of RF at AT&T Park. That just doesn't happen, especially that time of night. Gotta think there was some unusual carry there.
The Loss leaves the Giants 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 0.5 games out of the second Wild Card slot.
Tim Hudson takes the mound for an afternoon start facing Kyle Kendrick.
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lets face facts, this team is not doing anything in the post season, if it lucks out and makes it
ReplyDeleteit lacks both focus and drive and wholesale changes must be made in the offseason
ot. faye vincent has been making the rounds discussing the naming of the new commish
according to vincent, number one on the new commish's agenda, should be peds, because "peds in sports, corrupt them..."
thank god that vincent is no longer the commish
i hope that by naming a labor atty the league will be serious and make changes to the farm system...which i believe, for an org flush in cash, is the most important thing to do
bacci
I don't know if the Giants have what it takes to make the postseason, but if they get in, anything can happen. They definitely have to turn things around, but I can still see them getting hot down the stretch and carrying over into the playoffs.
DeleteI would also like to see majors changes in the draft and farm system in baseball.
Right now, the minor leaguers are very much disenfranchised. The only time they have any leverage at all is when they sign their first pro contract. The MLBPA is incentivized to keep as much money as possible at the MLB level and has basically conspired with MLB through the collective bargaining process to severely limit that leverage. The minor leaguers need some form of collective representation. It seems to me the simplest way to achieve that and the least painful for all parties is to include the minor leaguers in the MLBPA and call it the Professional Baseball Players Association.
DeleteGreat topic of conversation folks, and I agree wholeheartedly with what has been suggested here. I believe the alternative would be for the minor league players to form their own union. The leverage they have is that MLB DOES NOT EXIST without hoards of minor leaguers giving up other career avenues to pursue a slim-to-nill chance of everything working perfectly & making an MLB team.
DeleteIt's a tough road to walk, though. Hence why it would probably be much better for the MLB players to allow those MiLB levels to join the PA.
I guess the big problem with simply including the minor league players in the MLBPA is the concept of one man, one vote. Since there are a lot more minor leaguers, you would have to figure out a way proportionalize their input and control of the process.
DeleteDr.B - I have a request.
ReplyDeleteThis is your blog and you can run it how you like. However, I absolutely despise reading about how Sandoval's play is affecting his contract status. It seems time he has a great statistical game, what I instead read about is how much that going to cost the Giants/some other team, in this new contract.
I do not follow baseball to talk about money and politics. Honestly, every time the subject of Pablo is linked to "the money he's going to make next year", it's an absolute buzzkill, and it detracts from my joy towards the simple aspects of the game - which is what I love about baseball, and I think it's something we all love about baseball.
Would it not be appropriate to simply enjoy that Pablo Sandoval is showing the game that he's a great player, with supreme potential, and some very serious concerns towards his future? I have no problem discussing the if's, and's and but's of whether to sign Pabs up long term. But taking every game and dissecting it in terms of how much money it's going to translate into.......is absolutely not what I love about the game of baseball. I hope, to some degree, this can be a more limited occurrence - or regulated to focused posts about Pablo's contract, rather than infiltrating his stats line every night.
I completely understand your frustration with the situation, but it's a huge issue for the Giants are their fans. It is impossible to understand the majority of what happens in baseball these days outside the context of money. I'm not really trying to make a point here. Just commenting on the reality that 1. Pablo is having a very good season. 2. That is going to have a huge impact on both his future and the future of the Giants. I'll try to tone it down a bit if it has become too repetitive, though.
DeleteThanks for the response Dr. B. That's all I can ask for, and I certainly appreciate both your take and the willingness to meet half way.
DeleteNow, on a completely separate topic - HOW IS PANIK NOT HITTING IN THE 2-HOLE??
ReplyDeleteTwo - no, scratch that - Three things should be totally obvious to the perceptive observer:
1) The Giants need to shake things up, Stat!
2) Hunter Pence is much better suited to hit deep or at least 3rd in the lineup, in order to make use of his XBH and RBI propensity. (Just hit a home run with the bases empty, for context.)
3) Joe Panik is the perfect guy, at this moment, to occupy the 2-spot. He's hitting very well, he takes walks, he has "sufficient speed on the bases", he's got a good approach at the plate, he had unexpected success from the 2-spot earlier, the Giants lineup would look MUCH better "lengthened", and his abilities are being WASTED hitting in that "reverse donut" (nice term there) at the bottom of the order.
(For context - Today, 2nd inning: Morse triples, Ishi flies out softly, Panik then walked on 4 pitches, and Crawford/Hudson out easily and strand the runners at third and first. Man, that irks.)
Is it not blatantly obvious to everyone else..? Or is Boch being [un]characteristically thick? Either way, I'm frustrated on this one & the Giants don't have the leisure of losing games by 1 or 2 runs with this mistake being made right now.
This team is better than they're playing!!!
I completely agree with you on this one, RainBall. At the very least, please move Panik up one notch to #6 where he has a chance to drive in a run or two with his basehits, but the 2-hole seems tailor made for him.
DeleteAgree, Panik is perfect for the 2 hole and Pence is being wasted there.
DeleteYou hit the nail on the head, with both points. The Giants DO need to shake things up - they've certainly brought up some new faces in the last month, but Duffy and Susac are mostly just riding the pine now. Gregor Blanco is falling out of favor it seems... DrB has suggested it, and I will second... give Gary Brown a shot! What is there to lose at this point?
DeleteThe point about Panik hitting #2 is dead-on. When the Giants were at their best down the stretch in 2012, the top of the lineup was getting the pitching staff early runs almost every single night. Well, Pagan (when healthy) has had even better production than that season, and he hasn't missed a beat since returning. The problem is, there's no Scutaro behind him to set up the RBI situation for the big dogs. Here's how I look at it, though. Why was Scutaro so successful? He certainly didn't have any power... but we all knew he was going to give a good AB every time out. Hit the ball the other way, take a walk, find any way to move Pagan into scoring position. Joe Panik can do that, and he's currently in the middle of a Major League hot stretch at the plate.
Pence should be slugging in the 5-hole, where he can drive in runs like he has for his WHOLE career. Panik should be using his strong bat control abilities behind Pagan. It seems simple to me... what is the holdup?
Optimizing your lineup by The Book, an article by Sky Kalkman rptd 2012 at www.beyond.the.boxscore, summarizes current opinion on the topic. It advises that the #2 batter be one of the three best on the team, with a high OBP. We don't know yet how high Panik's OBP is likely to be, but there's little doubt at the moment, is there, that Pence fits the best-hitter, high-OBP profile better than Panik?
DeleteDrB's suggestion that Panik hit #6 is in keeping with what's now known about lineup construction. The criteria others are evoking to justify their impatience with what Bochy has been doing, may be outdated. Look at The Book (Tango, Dolphin, Lichtman), or at Kalkman's mini-summary to see why.
I haven't read the book and I probably would learn a great deal if I committed the time.
DeleteHowever, Barry Bonds did not hit #2 on any Giants team, ever, and for good reason. I believe an offense is a balancing act, and you have to place your pieces with extreme care. If Panik moves into the 2-spot and flounders, it doesn't take much to resign the strategy. If he hits .270 as he is now, it's a huge step forward.
Furthermore, when something ain't broke, don't fix it. When something clearly is, then it's time to pull out the tool cabinet.
With all due respect Campanari, I doubt Bochy is reading online articles about how to construct a lineup. To me, Pence's talents are best suited for the middle of the order. In-game power is a rarity in baseball today. Pence has it, and he has shown the ability to both hit for power and drive in runs every season in his career. I would much rather prefer him hitting 4 or 5 in the order, with a bat control player like Panik batting #2... regardless of what the manual tells me I should do.
DeletePence is not exactly known as a particularly high OBP guy. He's at .338 this season which is right at his career .339. That is not terrible, but also not something that is going to make you stamp your feet and say, "he has to hit #2, dammit!" Panik's season OBP was .317 coming into today's game(it's higher now), but remember, he got off to a slow start in the majors and it's still a small sample size. His career minor league OBP was an excellent .365 and he's right around .400 for the month of August after today's game. He's clearly a classic #2 hitter- disciplined hitter, sees a lot of pitches, left-handed so can pull the ball through the hole with a runner on first and doesn't have the kind of power you would want further down in the lineup.
DeleteI can live with Panik at #2 or #6, but I agree you don't want Pence leading off or in the 2-hole long term.
The point of sabermetrics, as of that of scientific studies in any field, is to reexamine status quo assumptions. If the usual assumptions turn out to be questionable, then it is not "blatantly obvious" that they should be followed, or that one should have "a classic #2 hitter" as one's #2 hitter. If one doesn't know what current thinking on a subject is, fine; but then one might hedge one's opinions, and perhaps inform oneself so that one can understand why Bochy (who I presume knows a hell of a lot more about baseball than all of us) makes the choices he does. I doubt, like covechatter, that Bochy reads online articles about lineup construction, though he might well have read The Book or have had its findings passes on to him. There's a good chance that Bochy doesn't need to read online articles, but then, Bochy has a level of expertise that might make it unnecessary for him, unlike critical amateurs who post on baseball blogs in their spare time, to do so.
DeleteMaybe Panik would be optimal batting second on this Giants team, and maybe Pence would be best lower down in the order. I don't know. But I wouldn't want to argue the case on catch-as-catch-can, recollected "wisdom" while I ignored the statistical arguments that bear on the question. DrB doesn't treat patients in accord with the protocols of twenty years ago, ignoring what's been published since; and I don't see why the posters on his site should opine (except that whatever we opine is ineffective and so, harmless) without being up-to-date.
Prior to the very recent emergence of Panik as an offensive force and with Brandon Belt out with one injury after another, I think a strong case can be made for Pence being the best option as the #2 hitter. Right now, I'd think about moving Panik into that position, but Bochy may reasonably feel he doesn't want to put that kind of pressure on the kid until he's established himself a bit longer at the MLB level.
DeleteMaybe I will do a post on My Thoughts on Lineup Construction which may or may not agree with The Book.
DeleteI'd be very intrigued to read your thoughts on that, on weighing the factors in making a series of ongoing compromises.
DeleteIt might be a little repetitive but the Pablo signing is probably one of the biggest issues that could have a huge impact on the Giants over the next 5 years. As I see it Pablo's new contract when combined with the millions already spent is a huge question mark. If we sign him and he doesn't perform there will be little wiggle room to fix the team. Considering his past indescretions is it worth the gamble? This is something I have been going back and forth with. Yes, when Pablo is "right" he is one of the top 10 players at his position in baseball but who is to say once he gets a fat contract he doesn't come in after the off season in a year or two as big as his contract.
ReplyDeleteThat is exactly the dilemma for the Giants and it's a big one.
Delete"If we sign him and he doesn't perform there will be little wiggle room to fix the team."
DeleteYou've summed it up here RBJ. I think this is the biggest element of the equation. He may be great - and he may not. However, the stakes are greater than the Giants can play in. If Sandoval flounders with the big contract and long-term commitment, we're in a big league quagmire.
On the other hand - if the Giants let Sandoval go and take the draft pick, they move forward in restructuring a team that in the next 3 years is going to require a huge turnover. To me, it's a stage that needs to come. The truly ideal situation would be for the Giants to flex their financial muscle and show that even a big contract with Sandoval would not hamper future investments - but I'm not very confident that this is the case, and I won't blame them for not being "bottomless spenders."