Scouting the Draft: 2016 First Round Review

We've talked many times about how the Giants got first round talent when they drafted Bryan Reynolds in the second round and second round talent with Heath Quinn in the second round.  I thought it might be both interesting and educational to review the first round draft picks and a few selected supplemental first and second round picks to compare early pro performances.

1.  Phillies:  Mickey Moniak, OF, HS.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 185 lbs.

Rookie:  .284/.340/.409, 11 2B, 4 3B, HR, 10 SB, 11 BB, 35 K, 176 AB.

Solid start at an appropriate level.

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2.  Reds:  Nick Senzel, 3B, College(Tennessee).  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 205 lbs.

Low A:  .379/.415/.567, 23 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 15 SB, 32 BB, 49 K, 210 AB.

Senzel can hit, for sure.  The 15 SB's surprised me.  The rap on him is he's already a corner IF, but hey, if you can hit like this, who cares?

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3.  Braves:  Ian Anderson, RHP, HS.  6'3", 170 lbs.

R(GCL):  1-0, 0.00, 18 IP, 4 BB, 18 K.
R+(Appy):  0-2, 3.74, 21.2 IP, 8 BB, 18 K's.

Mid-90's FB.  I read one scouting report in BA that seemed to be saying he tends to lose velocity and command at about 50-60 pitches.  That should improve as he fills out his frame as long as he trains properly.

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4.  Rockies:  Riley Pint, RHP, HS.  6'4", 195 lbs.

R(Pioneer):  1-5, 5.35, 37 IP, 23 BB, 36 K's.

The buzz on Pint is velocity, 102 MPH in HS prior to the draft.  Sat easily in the upper 90's in his pro debut.  Command is a work in progress.

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5.  Brewers:  Corey Ray, OF, College(Louisville).  B-L, T-L.  5'11", 185 lbs.

High A:  .247/.307/.385, 13 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 9 SB, 20 BB, 54 K, 231 AB.
Low A:  .083/.313/.083, 12 AB.

High A is a very aggressive placement for a new draftee.  He was demoted to low A, which is itself fairly aggressive.  Disappointing start to his pro career, but I would not write him off yet.  I think this may have more to with the Brewers not placing him appropriately.  Hopefully there is no lasting psychological damage.

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6.  Athletics:  AJ Puk, LHP, College(Florida).  6'7", 220 lbs.

Short Season:  0-4, 3.03, 32.2 IP, 12 BB, 40 K's.

The K's and the BB's look good here.

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7.  Marlins:  Braxton Garrett, LHP, HS.  Signed late.  Did not play.

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8.  Padres:  Cal Quantrill, RHP, College(Stanford).  6'2", 165 lbs.

Rookie:  0-2, 5.27, 13.2 IP, 2 BB, 16 K.
Short Season:  0-2, 1.93, 18.2 IP, 2 BB, 28 K.
Low A:  0.1, 17.36, 4.2 IP, 4 BB, 2 K's.

First two stops looked great.  We'll write off the Low A numbers as SSS and fatigue.

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9.  Tigers:  Matt Manning, RHP, HS.  6'6", 190 lbs.

Rookie:  0-2, 3.99, 29.1 IP, 7 BB, 46 K's.

Dominant secondary stats at an appropriate level.

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10.  White Sox:  Zach Collins, C, College(Miami).  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 220 lbs.

High A:  .258/.418/.467, 7 2B, 6 HR, 33 BB, 39 K, 120 AB.

Some 3 true outcomes stuff going on here.  If enough of those outcomes are dingers, you can do worse from the catcher position.

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11.  Mariners:  Kyle Lewis, OF, College(Mercer).  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 210 lbs.

Short Season:  .299/.385/.530, 8 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 3 SB, 16 BB, 22 K, 117 AB.

Nice mix of contact, plate discipline, BA and SLG% here.

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12.  Red Sox:  Jason Groome, LHP, HS.  6'6", 220 lbs.

Rookie:  0-0, 2.25, 4 IP, 0 BB, 8 K.
Short Season:  0-0, 3.38, 2.2 IP, 4 BB, 2 K's.

Polarizing prospect.  Non-baseball issues may get in the way of his talent.  Many thought the Phils would take him #1 overall.  Very late to sign.  Tiny sample size here.  10 K's in 6.2 IP is a good start.

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13.  Rays:  Josh Lowe, 3B, HS.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 190 lbs.

Rookie:  .258/.386/.409, 6 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 20 BB, 27 K, 93 AB.
Short Season:  .238/.360/.400, 6 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 17 BB, 32 K, 80 AB.

Impressive for a HS draftee to get 80 AB in Short Season ball.  Gotta wonder about a kid who is already a corner IF out of HS.  3 true outcomes feel here.

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14.  Indians:  Will Benson, OF, HS.  B-L, T-L.  6'5", 225 lbs.

Rookie:  .215/.326/.430, 10 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 10 SB, 22 BB, 60 K, 158 AB.

Speaking of 3 true outcomes, did Adam Dunn clone himself?

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15.  Twins:  Alex Kiriloff, OF, HS.  B-L, T-L.  6'2", 195 lbs.

R+(Appy):  .306/.341/.454, 9 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 11 BB, 32 K, 216 AB.

Nice numbers for a pro debut.

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16.  Angels:  Matt Thaiss, C, College(Virginia).  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 195 lbs.

R(Pioneer):  .338/.394/.569, 7 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 65 AB.
Low A:  .276/.351/.427, 12 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 22 BB, 28 K, 199 AB.

Love the numbers here.  Could be a fast mover.  Angels will have to resist the urge to rush him as they desperately need production from the catcher position.

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17.  Astros:  Forest Whitely, RHP, HS.  6'7", 240 lbs.

Rookie:  1-1, 7.36, 7.1 IP, 3 BB, 13 K.
R+:  0-1, 3.18, 11.1 IP, 3 BB, 13 K.

SSS. Nice ratios.

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18.  Yankees:  Blake Rutherford, OF, HS.  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 195 lbs.
R:  .240/.333/.400, 25 AB.
R+:  .382/.440/.618, 7 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 24 K, 89 AB.

Another polarizing prospect.  Some see him falling to the Yankees at #18 as a sign the draft is manipulated.  20 yo in first full season is old for a HS draftee.

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19.  Mets:  Justin Dunn, RHP, College(Boston College).  6'2", 195 lbs.

Short Season:  1-1, 1.50, 30 IP, 10 BB, 35 K.

About what you would expect for a #19 college pick in short season ball.

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20.  Dodgers:  Gavin Lux, SS, HS.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 190 lbs.

R:  .281/.365/.385, 10 2B, 5 3B, 25 BB, 43 K, 192 AB.
R+(Pioneer):  .387/.441/.484, 3 BB, 8 K, 31 AB.

About what you would expect from a HS draftee in rookie ball.  Pioneer League is an extreme hitter's league.

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21.  Blue Jays:  Tim Zeuch, RHP, College(Pittsburgh).  6'7", 225 lbs.

Rookie:  0-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 0 BB, 2 K.
Short Season:  0-1, 3.52, 23 IP, 5 BB, 22 K.
Low A:  0-1, 9.00, 8 IP, 2 BB, 14 K.

Small sample. Ratios look good.

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22.  Pirates:  Will Craig, 3B, College(Wake Forest).  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 212 lbs.

Short Season:  .280/.412/.362, 12 2B, 2 HR, 41 BB, 37 K, 218 AB.

Terrific plate discipline.  Might want to see more power out of a college corner IF draftee.

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23.  Cardinals:  Delvin Perez, SS, HS(PR).  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 175 lbs.

Rookie:  .294/.352/.393, 8 2B, 4 3B, 12 SB, 12 BB, 28 K, 163 AB.

I think I remember really liking this kid's scouting report.  Love the early numbers.  Cards do a great job of drafting.

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24.  Padres:  Hudson Potts, SS, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.

Rookie:  .295/.333/.399, 12 2B, 2 3B, HR, 8 SB, 9 BB, 34 K, 183 AB.
Short Season:  .233/.352/.267, 9 BB, 13 K, 60 AB.

Nice numbers at the appropriate level.  Big for a SS. Will he stick there?

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25.  Padres:  Eric Lauer, LHP, College(Kent St).  6'3", 205 lbs.

Rookie:  0-1, 6.75, 4 IP, 1 BB, 7 K.
Short Season:  1-0, 1.44, 25 IP, 7 BB, 28 K.
Low A:  0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 1 BB, 2 K.

Ratios look good.

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26.  White Sox:  Zack Burdi, RHP, College(Louisville).  6'3", 205 lbs.

Rookie:  0-0, 0.00, 1 IP, 0 BB, 1 K.
High A:  0-0, 5.40, 5 IP, 0 BB, 4 K.
AA:  0-0, 3.94, 16 IP, 9 BB, 24 K.
AAA:  1-0, 2.25, 16 IP, 11 BB, 22 K.

Talk about fast-tracking!  Hard throwing college closer who could be pitching for the White Sox in 2017.

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27.  Orioles:  Cody Sedlock, RHP, College(Illinois).  6'3", 190 lbs.

Short Season:  0-1, 3.00, 27 IP, 13 BB, 25 K.

OK numbers at an appropriate level.

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28.  Nationals:  Carter Kieboom, SS, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 190 lbs.

Rookie:  .244/.323/.452, 8 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 12 BB, 43 K, 135 AB.

More 3 true outcomes stuff going on here.

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29.  Nationals:  Dane Dunning, RHP, College(Florida).  6'4", 200 lbs.

Short Season:  3-2, 2.14, 33.2 IP, 7 BB, 29 K.

OK numbers at an appropriate level.

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30.  Rangers:  Cole Ragans, LHP, HS.  6'4", 190 lbs.

Rookie:  0-0, 4.70, 7.2 IP, 6 BB, 9 K's.

Tiny sample size.

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31.  Mets:  Anthony Kay, LHP, College(Connecticut).  Signed late.  DNP.

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32.  Dodgers:  Will Smith, C, College(Louisville).  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 192 lbs.

R+(Pioneer):  .321/.394/.429, 28 AB.
Low A:  .256/.371/.305, 11 BB, 18 K, 82 AB.
High A:  .216/.330/.320, 14 BB, 31 K, 97 AB.

Lots of walks, lots of K's.

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33.  Cardinals:  Dylan Carlson, OF, HS.  B-S, T-R.  6'3", 195 lbs.

Rookie:  .251/.313/.404, 13 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 16 BB, 52 K, 183 AB.

Did some good things, but lots of K's.

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34.  Cardinals:  Dakota Hudson, RHP, College(Mississippi St.).  6'5", 215 lbs.

Rookie:  1-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 0 BB, 9 K.
Short Season:  1-1, 0.96, 9.1 IP, 7 BB, 10 K's.

SSS.

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Other notable draftees in 1S and 2'nd rounds:

35.  Reds:  Taylor Trammel, OF, HS.  B-L, T-L.  6'2", 195 lbs.

R+(Pioneer):  .303/.374/.421, 9 2B, 6 3B, 2 HR, 24 SB, 23 BB, 57 K, 228 AB.

Pioneer League, but still, nice numbers.

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36.  Dodgers:  Jordan Sheffield, RHP, College(Vanderbilt).  6'0", 185 lbs.

Rookie:  0-0, 0.00, 1 IP, 0 BB, 0 K.
Low A:  0-1, 4.09, 11 IP, 6 BB, 13 K's.

Unimpressive results but a SSS.

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37.  Athletics:  Daulton Jeffries, RHP, College(Cal).  6'0", 180 lbs.

Rookie:  0-0, 2.38, 11.1 IP, 2 BB, 17 K's.

Performing well at a low level is better than performing poorly.

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38.  D'Backs:  Anfernee Grier, OF, Auburn.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 180 lbs.

R+:  .214/.267/.500, 14 AB.
Short Season:  .240/.278/.307, 9 SB, 3 BB, 21 K, 75 AB.

Still early in his career, but those numbers are not what you are hoping to see from a pro debut.

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46.  Brewers:  Lucas Erceg, 3B, JC(CA).  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 200 lbs.

R+:  .400/.452/.552, 8 2B, 2 HR, 8 BB, 16 K, 105 AB.
Low A:  .281/.328/.497, 9 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 12 BB, 38 K, 167 AB.

Erceg can hit. Nice get for the BrewCrew here.

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53.  Ryan Boldt, OF, College(Nebraska).  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 210 lbs.

Short Season:  .210/.273/.263, 167 AB.

Disappointing numbers.

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Comments:

1.  If you are still wondering why lefty relievers are so valuable, note the number of B-L, T-R draftees here.

2.  Although most of the draftees got off to good starts, Reynolds in round 2 and Quinn in round 3 look awfully good for the Giants.