AAA:
Chris Stratton, RHP, 26 yo- 12-6, 3.87, 125.2 IP, 39 BB, 103 K. Posted a 3.60 ERA in 10 IP at the MLB level. I see him ending up as a long/middle relief arm in the majors where he could have a fairly long career.
Clayton Blackburn, RHP, 24 yo- 7-10, 4.36, 136.1 IP, 35 BB, 101 K, GO/AO= 1.19. Posted a 3.22 ERA over his last 8 starts after the All-Star break, but overall took a step back from his spectacular 2015 finish. Will need to come out strong in 2017 to get back into the mix for a MLB callup.
Joan Gregorio, RHP, 25 yo- 6-10, 4.69, 134.1 IP, 49 BB, 152 K(2 levels). The K's tell you he has the highest ceiling of the 3 AAA prospects. Has had trouble staying completely healthy and maintaining consistency in his command. Ceiling ranges from #2,3 SP to bust. Most likely a middle reliever/setup man in the majors where he could produce some dominant numbers.
AA:
Tyler Beede, RHP, 24 yo- 8-7, 2.81, 147.1 IP, 53 BB, 135 K. The Giants top pitching prospect. Looked like he was going to fade again in July, but then put up a 1.60 ERA in 5 August starts and allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP, in his final start of the season on 9/2. Had 66 K's in 61 IP over his last 10 starts of the season. Should move up to Sacramento and be ready for a callup midseason.
Andrew Suarez, LHP, 24 yo- 9-8, 3.63, 143.2 IP, 29 BB, 124 K, GO/AO= 1.20(2 levels). 2015 draftee who rocketed up the system. Had a brief stumble as he started AA but finished 5-1 with a 2.33 ERA over his last 10 starts for Richmond. Not a hard thrower, but the Giants like his command of a 3 pitch mix. Should move up to Sacramento and be ready for a MLB callup about midseason or at least by September. I might rate him a tick behind Blach due to Blach's MLB experience. Those 2 will likely be the 2'nd and 3'rd highest rated pitching prospects behind Beede on my list.
Matt Gage, LHP, 24 yo- 9-7, 3.38, 136 IP, 34 BB, 106 K, GO/AO= 1.60. Gage consolidated his position in AA. Went 5-2 with a 2.92 ERA over his last 10 starts. Also ready to move up to Sacramento, but is there room up there?
Dan Slania, RHP, 25 yo- 11-8, 2.93, 119.2 IP, 35 BB, 111 K(3 levels)- Slania started the season in the bullpen in Richmond, but then was suddenly switched into the rotation with Chase Johnson moving into the bullpen, a move that may have been designed to protect Johnson's arm. Big Dan pitched well in his starting role, but kind of got shuttled around with short stints in San Jose and Sacramento. In his final start of the season for Sacramento he went 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K's. A nice sleeper in the system. His future may still be in the bullpen, but the starting experience will help him in that role.
Sam Coonrod, RHP, 24 yo- 9-6, 2.55, 141 IP, 60 BB, 94 K's(2 levels). Coonrod was effective with poor secondary numbers. Hard throwers with those kinds of numbers generally end up in the bullpen.
Kyle Crick, RHP, 24 yo- 4-11, 5.04, 109 IP, 67 BB, 86 K's. Time may be running out on Kyle Crick. He just can't seem to get command of his stuff. 2017 may be his last chance.
High A:
Mark Reyes, LHP, 24 yo- 9-9, 4.74, 127.1 IP, 60 BB, 80 K, GO/AO= 1.43. A finesse lefty who struggled with command. Not a good look!
Jordan Johnson, RHP, 23 yo- 8-9, 5.33, 120 IP, 39 BB, 111 K. Peripherals better than ERA, but he gave up dingers by the bushel.
Jason Forjet, RHP, 27 yo- 10-7, 4.84, 102.1 IP, 20 BB, 87 K. Ran hot and cold with a lot of QS and even dominant starts but with disaster starts sprinkled in which blew up his ERA.
Jose Reyes, RHP, 26 yo- 4-6, 5.38, 100.1 IP, 33 BB, 64 K. Disappointing season for the hard throwing righty.
DJ Snelton, LHP, 25 yo- 4-7, 4.11, 96.1 IP, 32 BB, 82 K, GO/AO= 2.69. Anther guy who just can't seem to find traction.
Conner Menez, LHP, 22 yo- 4-1, 4.22, 53.1 IP, 16 BB, 50 K's(3 levels). 2016 draftee who made it to High A in his first pro season and held his own.
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Gregario is looking for one of those types of arms they like to use as trade bait at the deadline. Alluring enough to intrigue another team but the Giants always seem to keep the right guys. Seems like we have been talking about Stratton and Blackburn forever, time to figure them out once and for all. Unfortunately I think we already have on Crick
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball
Honestly, I don't know what to think.
ReplyDeleteRight now Beede is the only one in AA I have any real positive feelings about when it comes to breaking into the starting rotation in the near future. Coonrod still has command & control work to do. Suarez seems to be a low-grade starter type. And I have no idea how to look at Slania or Gage as, besides here, nobody really talks about them. And stick a fork in Crick.
And in AAA... I get the feeling that Blackburn & Stratton are middle-relief types and Gregorio is at least another year away as they try to build up his endurance and secondary pitches.
The pitching in the Giants system has thinned out considerably, no doubt. I agree that Beede is the only guy with a reasonable chance to be a top of the rotation starter. There is reasonable depth in AAA and AA, but SJ and Augusta were wastelands last year and the 2016 draft class was weak for pitching.
DeletePitching probably needs to be a priority in the 2017 draft and in international signings.
By not hard thrower (Andrew Suarez) are we talking 93/95 mph. I think it was you but maybe someone else that 'nibblers' of past have a more difficult time these days with what umpires are calling, anyway to me it's still seem like it's a good thing to have a mid 90's fast ball.
DeleteWell, here's a recent scouting report from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. Take it for what it's worth.
Delete"Suarez has retained the same low 90's fastball he's had since high school, an average offering that occasionally creeps past 93 and features some late movement."
Isn't it ALL about 2017?
ReplyDeleteWill the Giants bet all to win next year because in 2018 Cueto, Moore, and Nunez become FA's (or can become in Cueto's case).
Two big holes in the rotation plus the #5 hole this year.
An infield opening for Arroyo if he's ready? If not?
Cain is gone, because even if he comes through in 2017, he's unlikely to be worth $21M in 2018.
Rotation: Bumgarner, Samardzija, Blach (?), Beede (?), Stratton (?), Heston (?), Blackburn (?), Suarez (?)-- maybe there IS room for a $21M Cainer!
If the questions in 2018 aren't enough, there will be openings aplenty in the OF in 2019.
The report that the Giants WILL sign one of the BIG 3 relievers is more credible because competiveness become problematic thereafter unless the farm produces a LOT.
Giants have team friendly options on Matt Moore through 2019.
DeleteAlso, the next FA class is shaping up to be very large so there will likely be some good FA bargains after 2017.
The Giants have options on Moore for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Except for Cueto who can opt out, only Nunez is a FA in 2018.
DeleteCueto can opt-out after 2017 and I expect him to opt out, freeing up about $20 million or so. I have my doubts that Cain's $21 million option gets exercises in 2018 so that'll be another $21 million freed up. So, at that point, I think the Giants would easily have the payroll flexibility to resign him.
And 2018 is interesting. David Price and Clayton Kershaw can both opt-out along with Cueto. Plus there are other pitching FAs -- Matt Harvey, Dallas Kuechel, Garrett Richards, Jose Quintana and Jake Arrieta are all relatively solid to outstanding FAs. All-in-all, about 8 really good pitchers (if the opt-outs opt-out and the others don't resign before FA).
All the rest of the Giants are in Arbitration, have options or are in team control until 2019 when Gillespie and Pence become UFAs. Span might be able to opt out after 2018, I'm not sure.
In fact, except for Pence (or his replacement), I don't think there's much to worry about before 2020. The market's not barren and much of our team is signed long-term or is under control through 2019.
Yup, Giants are actually in great shape going forward, as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball!
DeleteMosesZD, the Giants are being more responsible in their spending than most contending teams and forecast the upcoming free agent market. But aside from the big money they are about to throw at a closer, they still have huge escalations in payroll coming with Belt's and Crawford's contracts ( Whoever worked those contracts were geniuses for what they did the first couple of years.) which essentially cancel out the gains of Cain's contract expiring. Also Jeff Samardzija is making 9 million more a season for the duration of his contract after only getting paid 10 million last season. Lastly, soon it will be time to pay the piper and finally pay MadBum his true market value. Which would be at least 12 to 13 million more a season. So they are in good shape to keep the window open for as long as their core is solid, but I don't think they will be making a big splash in 2018 with those names you posted or unfortunately being able to keep Cueto. I hope that I'm wrong though, because I like Cueto a lot.
ReplyDeletePence's contract is also up after 2 more seasons. He'll be what, 36 years old by then? Giants will likely let him go.
DeleteI think the Giants will happily let Cueto go. 2018 will be his age 33 season. They heavily front-loaded his contract practically begging him to opt out.
I do think the Giants will most likely extend Bumgarner's contract which will likely end up being a big mistake as he is building up a ton of mileage on that arm.
The current rate limiting step in payroll for the Giants is the Luxury Tax threshold which will likely go up in the new CBA.
They will have to pay Cain a $7.5 M buyout after this season, but I don't think that counts against their 2017 Luxury Tax threshold.
They will likely have some payroll flexibility in the 2017-18 offseason.
Yes, we do get some ballooning in 2018. However, according to SportTrac the Giants, with Cueto and Cain, have a $168.9 million dollar adjusted payroll in 2018 with the ballooning. And Cain and Cueto are $42 million of it.
DeleteAnd, yes, I well recognize that we'll be (trying at least) signing a closer this year. And while I expect both Jansen & Chapman to beat Papelbon's 4-year, $50 million contract, I don't expect it to be in the starting pitching range of $20 million/season and up. OTOH, I don't think Melancon will be as expensive since he's not as 'sexy' because he doesn't a 103mph fastball (Chapman) or 98mph cutter (Jansen) and I'd rather the Giants went after him anyway.
With you 100 percent on Melancon. I just think the Giants will not be shopping big names and get real solid supporting pieces to what they already have. Even though if they did, I would be just as happy, because I am already tired of hearing about the Cubs. A team the Giants could have totally beaten, and that was almost beat by a patchwork Indians team. I mean they used a three man rotation because their #2 and #3 where disabled and didn't have Brantley in the OF either.
Delete