Friday, November 18, 2016

Scouting the Draft: Giants 2016 Draft Review, Rounds 1-10

We'll review the Giants 2016 draft and take a look at how the kids did in their MLB debuts.  Just for fun, we'll put a letter grade on their performance.  Just remember the letter grade is for performance only and not necessarily a judgement on the quality of the pick or the player's future as a prospect.  Listed ages are their 2017 season age.

Round 1:  No pick.  The Giants lost this pick when they signed RHP Jeff Samardzija to a FA contract.  Grade B.

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Round 2:  Bryan Reynolds, OF, 22 yo, B-S, T-R, 6'3", 200 lbs.  College- Vanderbilt.  Highest Level- High A.

SS:  .312/.368/.500, 12 2B, 5 HR, 5 HR, 11 BB, 41 K, 154 AB.
Low A:  .317/.348/.444, 5 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 20 K, 63 AB.
High A:  4 for 12, HR(3 games, Cal League Playoffs).

Reynolds was ranked in the first round by many analysts and he performed like a first round talent in his pro debut.  We'll dock him a half grade for all the K's.  A-.

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Round 3:  Heath Quinn, OF, 22 yo, B-R, T-R, 6'2", 190 lbs.  College- Samford.  Highest Level- High A.

Rookie:  .600/.778/.800, 5 AB.
SS:  .337/.423/.571, 19 2B, 9 HR, 26 BB, 50 K, 205 AB.
High A:  .353/.421/.412, 17 AB.

I had him as a potential 2'nd rounder.  Terrific pro debut showing the RH power the Giants were hoping they got with a reasonable K rate.  Grade A.

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Round 4:  Matt Krook, LHP, 22 yo, 6'4", 195 lbs.  College- Oregon.  Highest Level- Short Season.

Rookie:  0-1, 1.59, 5.2 IP, 2 BB, 2 K, GO/AO= 4.33.
SS:  1-3, 6.17, 35 IP, 33 BB, 39 K, GO/AO= 3.77.

There are some things to like here.  The K rate is dominant as is the groundball tendency.  Obviously has a long way to go to overcome the control issues that emerged in college.  Grade D(Still like the pick in round 4).

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Round 5:  Ryan Howard, SS, 22 yo, B-R, T-R.  6'2", 180 lbs.  College- Missouri.  Highest Level- Short Season.

Rookie:  .250/.400/.250, 8 AB.
SS:  .272/.313/.371, 4 HR, 13 BB, 24 K, 224 AB(.317 over his last 10 games).

Solid, if unspectacular pro debut for the college SS.  Grade B.

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Round 6:  Gio Brusa, OF, 23 yo, B-S, T-R.  6'3", 220 lbs.  College- Pacific.  Highest Level- High A.

SS:  .264/.298/.495, 15 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 11 BB, 69 K, 220 AB(.325 last 9 games).
High A:  0 for 2, BB(1 game).

Enigmatic player who ran hot and cold in college and that trend continued in his pro debut.  Switch-hitter had a pretty severe platoon split hitting just .219 from the right side  and .286 from the left.  K's and defense are also question marks.  Power showed up, though!  Grade C.

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Round 7:  Garrett Williams, LHP, 22 yo, 6'1", 205 lbs.  College- Oklahoma St.  Highest Level- Short Season.

Rookie:  1-0, 2.57, 7 IP, 3 BB, 5 K's, GO/AO= 2.75.
SS:  1-2, 5.68, 25.1 IP, 14 BB, 22 K, GO/AO= 1.60.

Similar profile to Matt Krook.  Touted HS prospect who struggled with control in college.  That continued in his pro debut.  Grade D(nothing wrong with taking a flyer on the upside in Round 7).

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Round 8:  Stephen Woods, RHP, 22 yo, 6'2", 200 lbs.  College- Albany.  Highest Level- Short Season.

Rookie:  0-2, 2.67, 27 IP, 17 BB, 25 K, GO/AO= 1.59.
SS:  1-0, 5.63, 8 IP, 5 BB, 12 K's, GO/AO= 1.00.

More control issues.  Grade D+.

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Round 9:  Caleb Baragar, LHP, 23 yo.  6'3", 210 lbs.  College- Indiana.  Highest Level- High A.

Rookie:  5-2, 2.51, 61 IP, 21 BB, 53 K, GO/AO= 0.88.
High A:  0-1, 4.76, 5.2 IP, 5 BB, 3 K, GO/AO= 0.56.

Pretty good numbers but at a low level for a top 10 round college draftee.  Grade C.

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Alex Bostic, LHP, 22 yo, 6'3", 195 lbs.  College- Clemson.  Highest Level- High A.

Rookie:  2-4, 5.59, 46.2 IP, 27 BB, 39 K, GO/AO= 0.89.
High A:  0-1, 6.35, 5.2 IP, 4 BB, 7 K, GO/AO= 0.13.

More control issues and at a low level.  Jumps of Baragar and Bostic from Arizona to SJ late a bit curious.  Grade D+

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Overall, the hitters drafted in the first 10 rounds had terrific pro debuts.  The pitchers, wow!  No bueno!  Let's hope the mythical Giants pitcher whisperers can fix one or two of these guys!
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4 comments:

  1. MosesZDNovember 18, 2016 at 11:47 AM

    I think a D for Krook is a bit harsh. I'd give Krook a B-. He was a Round 1 (supplemental) in 2013. Was lights-out as a true freshman at OU before he blew his elbow in 2014. Missed all of 2015 with Tommy John rehab. 2016 was up and down, but from what I understand from all the things I've read about TJ surgery comebacks, the first year back pitchers really have a hard time with control & velocity both down.

    But even with his control problems, he punched out 60 batters in 46.2 innings while allowing just 31 hits in college/Cape Cod and another 41K's in 40.2 in Rookie/SS and has reported hit 96MPH on the gun. So his stuff is still there, he just needs to get it back under control.

    Fun fact: He was drafted in 2013 by the Marlins. He was the second-highest pick to not sign in 2013. The highest -- Phil Bickford.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanNovember 18, 2016 at 1:38 PM

      I think there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Krook's future, but the letter grades here were for current performance only. A K/BB barely over 1 is not a good look.

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    2. MosesZDNovember 18, 2016 at 3:59 PM

      Ah, I see your point.

      I look at it differently. Opportunity Cost vs Realizable Reward. Baseball draftees have a fairly low success rate. For example, of all the Top-5 picks between 1990 and 2006, only 48% became successful major leaguers (not necessarily stars, just had successful careers). And those are the best prospects. Drop down to 26-through-30 and it's just 10%.

      So, to me, the cost is really low for a player that was, more-or-less, a 10% chance draftee in 2013. But with Tommy John, it's probably less than 10%. But it's got to better than the miserable chance the typical 4th rounder has.

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    3. DrBGiantsfanNovember 18, 2016 at 4:26 PM

      I think I said I still like the pick in round 4 for exactly those reasons. The exercise is just looking at performance in their pro debuts.

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