Sunday, November 27, 2016

DrB's 2017 Giants Top 50 Prospects

After several weeks of thought, I really don't have any major change to the list, so we'll make it final.  As always, don't get too hung up on the exact order.  The real value of this exercise is to get better acquainted with future Giants and other minor leaguers in the organization.

(From the original post):  So I've spend some time this Thanksgiving weekend jotting down Giants prospect names, kind of doodling it on on paper.  I start with names off the top of my head.  Once I've exhausted that, I look down stat pages for all the minor league teams and basically fill out the rest of the list by level.  I then look for names I might have forgotten and for names that might deserve to be higher when I am doing the stat page by level thing.

1.  Christian Arroyo, IF
2.  Tyler Beede, RHP
3.  Bryan Reynolds, OF
4.  Ty Blach, LHP
5.  Austin Slater, OF
6.  Steven Duggar, OF
7.  Andrew Suarez, LHP
8.  Chris Shaw, 1B
9.  Heath Quinn, OF
10.  Sandro Fabian, OF
11. Steven Okert, LHP
12.  Joan Gregorio, RHP
13.  Chris Stratton, RHP
14.  Dan Slania, RHP
15.  CJ Hinojosa, SS
16.  Ryder Jones, 3B/1B
17.  Dylan Davis, OF
18.  Sam Coonrod, RHP
19.  Aramis Garcia, C
20.  Miguel Gomez, 3B
21.  Jonah Arenado, 1B
22.  Clayton Blackburn, RHP
23.  Matt Gage, LHP
24.  Cory Taylor, RHP
25.  Jalen Miller, 2B
26.  Kelvin Beltre, 3B
27.  Gustavo Cabrera, OF
28.  Hunter Cole, OF
29.  Reyes Maronta, RHP
30.  Rodolfo Martinez, RHP
31.  Dillon Dobson, 3B/1B
32.  Heath Slatton, RHP
33.  Johneswhy Fargas, OF
34.  Manuel Geraldo, IF
35.  Gio Brusa, OF
36.  Jose Vizcaino Jr, 3B
37.  TJ Bennett, 2B
38.  Jean Angomas, OF
39.  Melvin Adon, RHP
40.  Kevin Rivera, 2B
41.  Raffi Vizcaino, RHP
42.  Matt Krook, LHP
43.  Mac Marshall, LHP
44.  Ryan Howard, SS
45.  Jacob Heyward, OF
46.  Malique Zeigler, OF
47.  Sandro Cabrera, LHP
48.  Chase Johnson, RHP
49.  Jordan Johnson, RHP
50. Nick Hill, 3B
Honorable Mention(no particular order):  Rando Moreno IF, Daniel Carbonell OF, Matt Lujan LHP, Ali Castillo IF, Orlando Calixte IF/OF, Tyler Horan OF, Matt Winn C, Kyle Crick RHP, Preston Claiborne RHP, Ray Black RHP, Carlos Alvarado RHP, Cristian Paulino OF, Ronnie Jebavy OF, Ty Ross C, Hengerber Medina RHP, Logan Webb RHP, Tyler Cyr RHP, Skyler Ewing 1B, Jake McCasland RHP, Michael Connolly RHP, Dominic Mazza LHP, Cesar Yanez RHP, Ashford Fulmer OF, Brandon Van Horn SS, John Riley C, Ryan Kirby 1B, Woody Edwards OF, Victor Concepcion RHP, Kendry Melo RHP, Rayan Hernandez RHP, Garrett Williams LHP, Patrick Ruotolo RHP, Conner Menez LHP, Chris Falwell LHP, Jose Layer OF, Jeffrey Parra C, Cody Brickhouse C, Michael Bernal 2B, Mikey Edie OF, Will Albertson C, CJ Myers RHP, Caleb Baragar LHP, Alex Bostic LHP, Reagan Bazar RHP, Luis Amaya LHP, Cameron Avila-Leeper LHP, Tyler Rogers RHP, Ian Gardeck RHP.

I don't have a Dominican Dandies list yet.


  1. Replies
    1. I will Rogers to the HM list unless someone can convince me he should be in the top 50.

    2. Certainly wasn't impressive @ Sac after doing well AA & A+. We'll know very soon (ST), but apparently the Giants agree with you. Can Rags do anything with a submariner?

  2. Was Ian Gardeck considered for the list? Before his TJ surgery he seemed like a future closer candidate. If he can regain some of his power repertoire he could be a part of the bullpen in 2018 perhaps.

    1. Will add Gardeck to HM. Before the TJ he was an older prospect who threw hard but struggled with command. Definitely a future bullpen candidate, but probably a stretch to think he was ever a future closer candidate.

  3. I have to put Beede above Arroyo. I'm aware of the age/level difference, but (to me) Beede seems, at this point, to more likely be a front-line regular than Arroyo.

    Kudos on having Cory Taylor that high; I might even have him a bit higher (don't have my list available now).

    I'd say Hunter Cole deserves to be higher. Sure, he's limited to LF; but I like him better than Slater (more power at similar level). Gustavo, for all his natural ability, has yet to put anything together. Reynolds may be a tweener. Really, I think if I had to put my money on just one of our outfield prospects, I'd probably go with Heath Quinn.

    1. Not sure why everybody is down on Arroyo. I guess folks were expecting more last year? He did almost exactly what I expected last year. I think his performance at Richmond was darn impressive given his age and experience. So, unless he gets traded, Arroyo is going to be my #1.

      Cole just can't hit consistently. He couldn't even stay hot for a full AFL season! As for power, Slater hit 18 HR's last year.

      Love Quinn's bat, but his a big smaller than Reynolds and is already stuck as a corner OF. I think Reynolds has upside on the power and is still a CF.

      As for Gustavo, #27 on a Giants prospect list isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of his future success.

    2. Not sure about others, but I'm not "down" on Arroyo. If Beede wasn't in the system, and doing what he's doing, Arroyo would be #1 for me.

    3. Not down on Arroyo I just think he's further away than I thought coming into 2016. So, for me, Beede has passed him.

      Beede: Toward the end of the season (August 29th) he threw that 9-inning/11K shutout and the Giants had him hitting 98 mph twice in the ninth inning. Plus he's improved his control and sharpened up his pitches over the year and he lead the Eastern League in ERA, he dramatically improved his AA K/BB ratio and he didn't fade in the second-half, posting a 2.95 ERA over his last 10 starts (07/05 to 09/04). In short, he's flashing top-of-the-order potential.

      Arroyo: Arroyo, OTOH, was out-performed by his team-mates in the batters-box. Slater, Dugger, Cole & Horan all showed more power and two (Slater & Dugger) of the four had better averages to go with it. So his biggest upside -- hit tool -- wasn't terribly impressive and while the east is hard to hit in, he was #6 on the team in BA and 9th (140 ABs ore more) in OPS. It wasn't a stand-out season. There wasn't anything that said 'major jump' or 'move him to AAA'.

      OTOH, it wasn't bad. And considering that he was 3 years, 3 months younger than average, it's probably pretty good. But it did put a damper on the 'he's moving on up' parade in my brain. Whereas Beede, who stumbled hard in AA last year, was cream-of-the-crop this year.

      In short, in two close prospects, once simply did a lot more this year than the other and, in my book, earned his promotion. And so I flip-flopped him with Arroyo. And I may push another prospect or two ahead of Arroyo. Not because I think less of Arroyo, but because I'm thinking more of them.

      But I still haven't come close to sorting it out in my mind. So maybe not.

    4. In other words, you are down on Arroyo. You might want to take a peek at the age difference between him and Slater/Duggar/Cole/Horan. I can see why you might be a bit disappointed in the lack of dingers but the hit tool is doing just fine.

    5. Here are some quotes from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs re. Arroyo:

      "…down year on paper…"
      "…poor hitting environment in Richmond…"
      "….feel for contact remains superb…"
      "…projects as a .300+ hitter with SUPERNATURAL feel for doubles producing contact…."
      "….terrific hand-eye coordination and is remarkably short to the ball…"

    6. Arroyo also cut his K rate significantly and slightly increased is walk rate at AA vs his previous season in San Jose.

  4. Replies
    1. Snelton seems to me to be treading water. He's not getting any younger and is looking more and more like an organizational player. Maaaybe a HM, but even that is a stretch.

  5. Miguel Gomez should be knocking on the door of the top 10 (though certainly not in the top 10 YET)! I would place him higher than Juan Gregorio for sure. Pablo Sandoval was also a guy who didn't seem to have a position, but could just hit hit hit. Sandoval ended up being a stellar defensive 3B, even though Gomez may not have that projection.

    That said, his profile goes a long way in my book - and I sense a little Sandoval in Gomez. For that reason - the incredible hit tool - I'd have him much higher than those players I'm seeing in the teens!

  6. Is the big drop for Chase Johnson because of the injury -- do you know what it was?
    He had 2 separate month+ stints on the DL in '16 from '15 -- but the Giants didn't want to lose him.

  7. Dr. B does this year's list seem weaker in comparison to the last few years? the top is not as strong and exciting, and the 10-30 aren't anything close to big league ready neither...

    1. The difference from last year are the trades of Bickford, Fox, Mejia, and Santos for 3 good major league players who are key to 2017, and promotion to the majors from the list of Williamson, Osich, Parker, Law, and Brown (HM), several of whom are also key for 2017.
      Chase Johnson would be a lot higher IF he has less injury problems going forward. If he's healthy, he could be a call up in September.
      Obviously, the Giants would put Orlando Calixte high on the list -- why else would they sign and protect him if they didn't have plans. He may be to the infield what Hernandez is to the outfield.
      The Top 12 are all exciting, and at least that many more on the list. There are 20 players from the last three drafts who are making noise and at least 10 who will be knocking on the door this year or next.

    2. I think this year's list of comparable to recent years, maybe actually a little stronger. The trades and graduations have been replaced by new draftees like Reynolds and Quinn as well as some intriguing breakouts like Sandro Fabian, Austin Slater and Steven Duggar.

      As I have said before, pitching has definitely thinned out and is now the weakest sector of the farm system, while OF has surged to the front.

  8. I would push that list a bit farther down than 12. Hinjosa could be the real deal and should be coming up in what 2 years? Could come up as a reserve and be ready when Craw's contract is done. I actually like Stratton. He pitched well for the big club and (I think) in winter ball. While I fully expect Beede to take over at least one spot, and I hope Blach takes over the other, having Stratton is nice looking down the road. Stratton also might be a nice alternative to Kontos or Gearrin. I think last year showed having quality pen guys are important.

  9. Off topic a bit, but looks like the Mets have re-signed Cespedes for $27.5 AAV over 4 years:

  10. many thanks for the extensive listing of players. no brilliant insights on my part other than to say when you see where Kyle Crick is on the list, it's a keen reminder that baseball is the great leveler. i really thought he was can't miss.

  11. Appears that the Giants don't want lefty only OFers!
    Prospect: S = switch hitter, R = bats right, L = bats left
    3. Bryan Reynolds, OF S
    5. Austin Slater, OF R
    6. Steven Duggar, OF L
    10. Heath Quinn, OF R
    11. Sandro Fabian, OF R
    17. Dylan Davis, OF R
    27. Gustavo Cabrera, OF R
    28. Hunter Cole, OF R
    33. Johneswhy Fargas, OF R
    35. Gio Brusa, OF S
    38. Jean Angomas, OF L
    46. Jacob Heyward, OF R
    47. Malique Zeigler, OF R
    Daniel Carbonell OF R
    Orlando Calixte IF/OF R
    Tyler Horan OF L
    Cristian Paulino OF R
    Ronnie Jebavy OF R
    Ashford Fulmer OF R
    Woody Edwards OF R
    Jose Layer OF R

    Is this because most drafted players bat right handed, or Giants are looking right?

    1. Interesting observation. Hard to say if it is by design or chance.