The commissioner of my league announced that he is going to a 6X6 format next season and will replace the Wins category with QS and K/9. I am going to assume that ERA and WHIP correlate fairly well with QS, although there may be exceptions. For instance, a pitcher who throws 8 QS but gets blown out in 2 disaster starts may have an inflated ERA relative to his QS's. What QS's will do is give credit to the pitcher who has a good start, but fails to get a W because of low run support or a Blown Save. QS may be less of a crapshoot than W's, but using Dominant Starts or some sort of Game Score metric would probably do a better job or rewarding very good starts and penalizing bad ones. Here is a list of all 2016 SP's with 100+ IP in order of K/9 with their ERA. If you can find a correlation between K/9 and ERA, you have a better eye for pattern recognition that I.
1. Jose Fernandez(RIP), Marlins- 12.49, 2.86.
2. Yu Darvish, Rangers- 11.84, 3.41.
3. Robbie Ray, D'Backs- 11.25, 4.90.
4. Max Scherzer, Nationals- 11.19, 2.96.
5. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals- 11.15, 3.60.
6. Noah Syndergaard, Mets- 10.64, 2.61.
7. Michael Pineda, Yankees- 10.61, 4.82.
8. Danny Salazar, Indians- 10.55, 3.87.
9. Rich Hill, Dodgers- 10.52, 2.12.
10. Vince Velazquez, Phillies- 10.44, 4.12.
11. Chris Archer, Rays- 10.42, 4.02.
12. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers- 10.39, 1.69.
13. Justin Verlander, Tigers- 10.04, 3.04.
14. Madison Bumgarner, Giants- 9.97, 2.74.
15. Jonathan Gray, Rockies- 9.91, 4.61.
16. Aaron Nola, Phillies- 9.81, 4.78.
17. Drew Pomeranz, Red Sox- 9.78, 3.35.
18. Corey Kluber, Indians- 9.50, 3.14.
19. Danny Duffy, Royals- 9.30, 3.56.
20. Chris Sale, White Sox- 9.25, 3.34.
21. Carlos Carrasco, Indians- 9.23, 3.32.
22. Francisco Liriano, Blue Jays- 9.22, 4.64.
23. Kenta Maeda, Dodgers- 9.17, 3.48.
24. Carlos Rodon, White Sox- 9.16, 4.04.
25. Archie Bradley, D'Backs- 9.08, 5.02.
26. Cole Hamels, Rangers- 8.97, 3.32.
27. David Price, Red Sox- 8.92, 3.99.
28. Scott Kazmir, Dodgers- 8.85, 4.56.
29. Steven Matz, Mets- 8.77, 3.40.
30. Jon Lester, Cubs- 8.75, 2.44.
31. Kevin Gausman, Orioles- 8.72, 3.61.
32. James Paxton, Mariners- 8.70, 3.79.
33. Jake deGrom, Mets- 8.70, 3.04.
34. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals- 8.68, 4.51.
35. Jake Arrieta, Cubs- 8.67, 3.10.
36. Colin McHugh, Astros- 8.63, 4.34.
37. John Lackey, Cubs- 8.60, 3.35.
38. Drew Smyly, Rays- 8.51, 4.88.
39. Ian Kennedy, Royals- 8.46, 3.68.
40. Marco Estrada, Blue Jays- 8.44, 3.48.
41. Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox- 8.41, 4.71.
42. Adam Conley, Marlins- 8.37, 3.55.
43. Johnny Cueto, Giants- 8.11, 2.79.
44. Mike Foltynewicz, Braves- 8.10, 4.31.
45. AJ Griffin, Rangers- 8.09, 5.07.
46. Kyle Hendricks, Cubs- 8.09, 2.15.
47. Matt Moore, Giants- 8.08, 4.08.
48. Anibel Sanchez, Tigers- 8.05, 6.04.
49. Matt Shoemaker, Angels- 8.64, 3.88.
50. Carlos Martinez, Cardinals- 8.02, 3.04.
Like I said, if you can see a pattern here, you are much better at pattern recognition than I. So, what drafting strategy will I employ in my league's new 6X6 format? I believe that WHIP correlates better with ERA than K/9. I also believe WHIP is more stable over time than ERA. So, if I continue to load up my bench with SP's who have a low WHIP and rotate them into the starting rotation with daily lineup resets, I can rack up QS's and K's while still winning a majority of WHIP's and ERA's. In a 6X6 League, you can better afford to punt one category, so fill RP slots with relievers with high K/9 regardless of Saves. The other strategy would be to punt W's and K's, spend all your allotted pitching dollars on a few ace SP's and then load up on relievers which would give you K/9, ERA, WHIP and Saves.
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If it helps make your fantasy baseball experience more fun than good. I sometimes wonder if it is beginning to be too much with the different stats for points. Its always good to improve on something, but when are we getting to a point where it doesn't make sense. This seems to take away the need to draft an ace with the first couple of picks, depending on how many teams are in your league.
ReplyDeleteI actually like the good old standard 5X5 format myself. Yeah, Wins are a crapshoot but you are never going to exactly replicate the real game no matter what you do. If my commissioner really wants to mirror true performance, he should probably use some type of Dominant Start or Game Score metric to replace Wins rather than QS and K/9 just seems redundant with K's to me, although I understand his desire to give value to non-closer relievers which is a trend in the real game.
DeleteOn the offensive side, I understand using OBP instead of BA, but if you do that it takes away value for the Ben Revere type leadoff hitter because it's so hard for a leadoff hitter with no power to draw walks. I would also prefer Total Bases to HR's since in a BA/HR format you don't get any credit for triples or doubles. SLG% helps with that but I prefer counting stats to rate stats whenever possible.
This might be helpful:
ReplyDeletehttps://playbook.draftkings.com/mlb/why-you-should-focus-on-strikeouts-and-how-to-predict-them