The Cardinals bolstered the left side of their bullpen by signing Lefty Brett Cecil to a 4 year/$30.5 M contract, a figure that some analysts find just a bit startling. Cecil has been a solid, if unspectacular reliever over the course of his career, but he's not a closer and was used more as a lefty specialist last season by the Toronto Blue Jays. He is coming off a season in which he missed the better part of 2 months with a torn oblique muscle. His final line from 2016: 1-7, 3.93, 36.2 IP, 1.96 BB/9, 11.05 K/9. The 20% HR/FB should improve in St Louis, but that is still a lot of dingers to give up. It also took him 54 appearances to accumulate the 36.2 IP, so he averaged right at 2 outs per appearance.
I don't know if there is any such thing as an overpay in MLB anymore, but if there is, this contract would fit the description. More importantly, it likely sets an absolute floor for any reliever with closing on his resume. I mean, there might even be hope for Santiago Casilla to get more than the $6.5 M he got from the Giants last year! Just think of what the elite guys, including Mark Melancon, are going to get! The Giants might want to start exploring the trade market for the closer they need for next year.
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Is this really so much of a overpay for Cecil? The going price for a win is around 7.5 million, so the Cardinals are essentially paying Cecil for a win each year. Excepting this year's injury shortened season, Cecil has easily crossed 1 WAR for three years running. I mean, R.A. Dickey got a higher AAV than Cecil did.
ReplyDeleteProbably not an overpay in AAV, but the total $$$ seems a bit generous for a lefty specialist. Of course the Giants were accused of overpaying for lefty specialists and won 3 WS with them.
DeleteSpeaking of the trade market, ESPN proposed this for the Giants:
ReplyDeleteDetroit Tigers trade OF J.D. Martinez to the San Francisco Giants for RHP Jordan Johnson and OF Steven Duggar.
You have keep up with the Joneses! The Tigers just missed the postseason, so while reports have suggested some possible deals to get younger, they also could give it one more run with an aging roster. Martinez has one season left before free agency, while the Giants could use a right-handed power bat for left field. Martinez fits that bill, although his atrocious defensive metrics in 2016 -- minus-22 defensive runs saved -- are cause for concern.
Thanks, but no thanks. I'd rather we 'struggled' with Williamson and Parker than do that. Or, worse comes to worse, bring up Slater or Cole.
Much as I would love to see Big Mac get his shot, if the Giants could get Martinez for Jordan Johnson and Duggar, I think they would do it and not think twice.
DeleteIf Detroit is trading for prospects, and NOT our top 3, sweeten it up with Francisco Rodriguez, and add another goodie from the Giants.
ReplyDeleteWhen we see the price tag on the Big Three and assess who's bidding, it will be difficult for SF. Between LA not wanting us to beat them, Washington wanting to succeed, Chicago wanting to repeat -- those are the three that stand to lose the most if one of the 3 gets away.
NYY has lessened their payroll, has Sabathia coming off 2018, and will be a player.
Miami says they're in, but we'll see -- the last time they tried to buy a winner was a spectacular failure.
There are multiple potential trade opportunities for a closer: KRod, David Robertson of the ChiSox is probably available, Wade Davis, Alex Colome of the Rays. I would not want to give up Arroyo or Beede for any of them, but pretty much anyone else in the system would be OK to part with for me.
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