We've kind of hit a dead phase for writing things that would interest Giants fans. They are not in the postseason. The Hot Stove League does not fire up until the World Series ends. There's a few managerial shuffles going on, but writing about managers tends to be pretty boring, especially if it has nothing to do with your team. Barry Zito retired and wrote a nice little eulogy to his own career, but I wrote a long piece about Zito a couple of years ago and don't have much, if anything, left to say about him.
I'm open for suggestions of what to write about. Please feel free to suggest specific topics or general themes. For Fantasy Baseball, I am starting to look at next year's rookie crop after an unusually big year for rooks in 2015, but it might be a bit early for that. I'm also starting to look at next year's draft crop, but again, it's awfully early. Not sure what else there might be to review from 2015.
What do you want to hear about? Also feel free to ask any questions you may have. Those are usually fun.
I've got a bit of writer's block going, so help me out.
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I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on the 40 man roster, who gets protected from the rule 5 draft.
ReplyDeleteI'll try to do something. It's not that wasy to figure out service times and who has to be protected and who doesn't. The Giants just dropped 3 players from the 40 man which gives you a clue as to how many they are thinking of adding this offseason.
DeleteI know you've been doing prospect lists for a while, maybe a review of your oldest one, and then you can do that annually
ReplyDeleteThey have to clear room for the players coming off the 60-day. I think they dropped those three to make room for Panik, Susac, and Perez when they are off the 60 (this still leaves a decision on Sanchez, also on the 60). And the Giants will still have to make room for new players and Rule 5 protection. Should be interesting at the winter meetings :)
ReplyDeleteOne thing I keep looking at is the various top 100 lists, are they really doing such a good job? Obviously we follow the Giants and the Panik/Duffy/Tomlinson emerging stories didn't catch us off guard (although Tomlinson was definitely up there in terms of surprises). Accountability? Seems like prospect writers really get stuck in their ways, whether it is the showcase circuit guys, the top 10 picks that get all the hype, what not.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand... The Dodgers have 5 guys in the MLB top 100, I just checked. Seager, Urias, De Leon (a pretty good pop up story), Peraza (the nugget in their disastrous deadline trades) and Grant Holmes. Los Gigantes... nada.
Is this going to be an accurate prediction of the future? I doubt it personally. But prospect writers obviously see something here. Don't know how to really articulate this, but somewhere there is some writing to be done.
Just looked up BA's 2015 Top 100 list. It's actually pretty good, but no list is perfect. As for the Giants and top 100 lists, I've been saying for awhile that while they may not be that strong in terms of elite, blue chip prospects, they are way deeper than most systems in terms of future usable talent. Whether that will eventually catch up with them as the elite core of Bumgarner and Posey age, I don't know. It may be already catching up with them with the decline of Timmy and Matt Cain. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
DeleteHow about doing a profile on the next 3 Giants in our farm system that you believe will be everyday players.
ReplyDeleteAny trades you would like to happen that could help out the 2016 Giants. I for one think Carrasco would take a lot but with only $37.5MM until 2020 (19 & 20 are option years) it could allow us to pursue bigger moves and being more flexible in the future.
Next 3 Giants prospects to turn into everyday players? I'll include starting pitchers as everyday players. Right off the top of my head I'd say Clayton Blackburn, Mac Williamson and Tyler Beede. Christian Arroyo is not far behind with Jarrett Parker having an outside chance. "Sleepers" would be Austin Slater, Hunter Cole, Rando Moreno, Chase Johnson and Adalberto Mejia.
DeleteI have been thinking that the Giants should pursue Jason Heyward. I have not seen you write anything about him, but have seen a lot about pitchers. He seems like the best player available on the market pitcher or hitter and is still young. I would love to have a core of our infield, Posey and Heyward for many years to come.
ReplyDeleteThoughts on Heyward and a pitcher? How about buy lowish for Ian Kennedy for the back end to bounce back, he used to be a #1 for the Dbacks when they made the playoffs.
Clint in Anaheim Hills
Someone asked me last offseason, I think out of exasperation with me for panning huge long-term contracts for almost every player on the market, if there was ANY FA in the next few years I would give such a contract to. My answer was Jason Heyward. He's a position player, so the risk of injury is lower. He give value on both offense and defense. He is young enough so there is still a reasonable hope of upside. I was reading just a day or two ago someone who was projecting a contract in the $160-$180 M range, possibly touching $200 M. $200 M might be pushing it just a bit, but even at $200 M, Jason Heyward would be a better long term risk than Buster Posey's contract. If he is signable in the $160-180 M range, then by all means, that might be the bargain of this offseason and I would definitely be OK with the Giants doing then then going after some less expensive pitchers to fill out the rotation.
DeleteWhat to do with Christian Arroyo. A good what to do. What position should he play? Giants don't have spot for him.
ReplyDeleteBeing that Arroyo is still in High A it isn't a concern or problem. AA is the test anyways. Look at Gary Brown's High A year for example. We all thought he was the next big thing. AA is the test to see if he can handle good pitching. So, I am thinking 2018 or a 2017 September callup at the earliest. Anything can happen by then.
ReplyDeleteHow about an alternate universe series where we can look at how Jon Lester and the Giants would have done together in 2015. Same with Panda (limiting the role of Duffy). Shields, etc.
ReplyDeleteAgain, it'd just be a fun exercise during this lull. Interested to see if any of the targets that didn't turn out would have changed out prospects this year.
If you are watching them anyways, what about recaps/thoughts on Arizona Fall League or World Series games. Most of us are probably also watching the games, even if connection to Giants is tenuous.
ReplyDeleteDr B,
ReplyDeleteI'm interested in your analysis of baseball stats, in particular for pitchers. For instance, in your recent analysis of 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier pitchers, you include a helpful line like this:
Doug Fister, RHP. 32 yo. Career Line: 65-63, 3.42, 6.07 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.56
And then there is a discussion of how fast their fastball is, or throw in the fWAR of the xFIP or something of that sort. Honestly, I am not so sure which of these stats to "buy" into, since many of the pitchers seem rather similar. What goes into your "smell" test? What makes Kershaw or Bumgarner better than the 2nd tier? Is it FB velocity or spin rate or something else?
Good question! I will try to gin up a full post about it. Briefly, those would be the 4 major things I would look at: K/9, BB/9, groundball rate or ratio, and velocity. For an elite pitcher, you want a K/9 to be no less than 8, preferably 9 or although that is crazy hard to sustain. You want BB/9 to be below 3. Anything above 3.00 is a red flag for poor command. Groundball rate is less critical in the NL West as most of the ballparks suppress HR/FB rates, but a high K pitcher with excellent command who gets a lot of groundballs is going to be an ace. Velocity is not an end-all, be-all, but in general higher velocity pitchers have more margin for error, so velocity is important.
Delete"Red Flags" or "Zitos" for evaluating a FA pitcher for a long term deal would be a declining K rate and/or a declining average velocity. Stay away from those guys!