This group of pitchers will be significantly less expensive than any in the top 2 tiers. At the same time, there is a high probability that 1 or more of them will perform better than 1 or more of the top 2 tier guys.
Wei-Yin Chen, LHP. 30 yo. Career Line: 46-32, 3.72, 6.97 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, GB/FB= 0.96. Nobody is talking about this guy but you could easily make a case for him being 2'nd tier as he has put up those numbers in the big, bad AL East. His average FB velocity last season was 91.6 against 91.5 for his career. He is young enough to give a long term deal. I'm guessing he'll just re-up with Baltimore, but he's well worth kicking the tires on.
Marco Estrada, RHP. 32 yo. Career Line: 36-34, 3.95, 7.97 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, GB/FB= 0.62. Soft tossing RHP with a strong FB tendency who has had his ups and downs. He's pitched in some pretty terrible pitching environments and survived. He may be earning himself a bigger payday with his postseason performance with Toronto. His average FB velocity in 2015 was 89.1 MPH against a career average of 89.5.
Doug Fister, RHP. 32 yo. Career Line: 65-63, 3.42, 6.07 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.56. There is a lot of sentiment for the Kid from Merced. He's got several red flags flying over him as his K/9 has slipped well below 6 over his last 2 seasons and his average FB velocity took a dive to 86.4 in 2015 against an 88.7 career average. Probably someone to stay away from unless he comes dirt cheap and you don't have to count on him.
JA Happ, LHP. 33 yo. Career Line: 62-61, 4.13, 7.63 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.22. JA Happ has kicked around a few places. One intriguing thing about him is he is one of the few pitchers to gain velocity over time. Last year, his average FB velocity hit 92 MPH against a career average of 90.8. He's maintained the increase for a couple of years now, so it's likely not a fluke. He thrived on Ray Searage's extreme pitch-to-contact approach in Pittsburgh which allowed him to cut his walk rate way down. He'll probably just re-up with the Pirates, but he's another guy worth kicking the tires on.
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP. 35 yo. Career Line: 47-25, 3.17, 7.70 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.62. Has missed some time with injuries in Seattle, but when he's been healthy, he's been excellent. His average FB velocity in 2015 was 89.5 MPH against a career average of 88.9 despite an early season oblique strain which cost him about half the season. He's looking for a 3 year contract. He'll probably re-up with Seattle but another guy worth kicking the tires on.
Scott Kazmir, LHP. 32 yo. Career Line: 98-90, 3.96, 8.54 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.15. Kazmir's early career was ruined by injuries, but he's been healthy for the past 2 seasons and put up very nice numbers. His average FB velocity in 2015 was exactly at his career average of 91.5 MPH. You've got to respect the injury history, but might be a nice option up to a 3 year deal.
Ian Kennedy, RHP. 31 yo. Career Line: 75-68, 3.98, 9.30 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, GO/AO= 0.94. Had a rough season in San Diego when his HR/FB ballooned despite pitching mostly in HR suppressing ballparks. Is his velocity dip to 90.4 MPH from a career average of 91.3 a red flag? His K rate remained strong, so you have to think there is still some upside in there.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Fister seems like a good buy low candidate on a one year deal. Would he take less to play in the bay?
ReplyDeleteKazmir is a Peavy type. More gritty vet than anything else now. Not sure it's worth locking up a rotation spot for multiple years with a guy who hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2007.
I like Zimmermann as the guy to lock up. Insure the contract against TJ so the money isn't thrown away if he gets hurt.
As ogc has pointed out in a prior comment, there is really no such thing as insurance against pitcher injuries. I mean, if you were an insurance company would you write a policy on Jordan Zimmermann knowing the epidemiology of UCL tears and recurrences after TJ?
DeleteAlso, the Giants clearly need more of a sure thing pitcher than Fister, and once they add a Price/Greinke or a Leake, why would they spend any money buying low on a guy like Fister when they already have Cain, Heston and Blackburn in house?
DeleteWonder if Mattingly leaving has anything to do with Greinke's decision on resigning with LA. Who would you rather pitch for: Bochy + Righetti or 2 new coaches with most likely little managerial experience? I heard Gabe Kapler could be front runner for manager job. Really? Hire a guy to handle $300MM payroll whose accomplishments are coaching Team Israel. Good luck Doyers.
ReplyDeleteAgreed on Kapler. I've heard him comment on TV. Unless there is a side of him that does not come through as a commentator, man, I just can't see him being the right guy for that job. On the other hand, I'm not sure who would be the right man for that job! I think they need someone with previous managerial experience, bviously someone who is comfortable with the sabermetric dogmas of the current front office. I've read that Bob Geren is a candidate. He worked with Billy Beane, but I seem to remember him taking some pretty serious criticism while managing in Oakland. It will be interesting to see who they hire and how they fare as manager.
DeleteWhat are the rumors about Bruce Bochy on the list of suitors for the Dodgers? Does that mean they would try to trade the Giants to get him? He has a contract until 2019. I don't think he can just quit and go somewhere else while under contract. Not sure what to make of it. I don't see any scenario that the Giants would trade Bochy, especially to the Dodgers. What am I missing here?
DeleteI have not seen any rumors about Bochy going to the Dodgers. That seems very far-fetched to me. Bochy just doesn't seem like a Andrew Friedman type manager and the Dodgers don't seem like the type of organization Bochy would want to work for.
DeleteRoger - I just read one of the articles commenting on the SI piece that first suggested the possibility of Bruce to the Dodgers. Rest assured, that was the biggest piece of rubbish, pseudo-journalistic, "here's a bunch of words I put together, what do you think of them?" reporting I have ever seen. Nearly equivalent to me musing that I think that when I cut that apple in half, there's going to be a banana on the inside. If I buy enough apples, it's possible, RIGHT?!
DeleteBottom line is - I was realizing today that the Dodgers are going to awaken soon to the same reality as every other team in baseball: That there is no way to buy playoff wins these days. You MUST build your franchise from the inside out, complimenting great youth with high caliber and well stitched thread from the bullpen and clever trades - not for the best players, but rather for the players you need.
The Dodgers did not take this route, and they will need to begin from the same place as everyone else. Championships cannot be bought, only built
Here is one link besides beat writers talking about it on Twitter.
Deletehttp://www.sportsworldnews.com/articles/49304/20151016/los-angeles-dodgers-rumors-bruce-bochy-possible-replacement-for-don-mattingly-video.htm
Right, that's the one. Did you read that?? Seriously, here's the quote we're referring to:
Delete"'Make no mistake; going after (the) current San Francisco Giants manager is swinging for the fences for the Dodgers in just about every way imaginable,' SI.com wrote. 'However, the thing about swinging for the fences is that, if you make contact and get a hit, you're more often than not going to hit a home run. That remains true in this instance with the Dodgers and Bochy.'"
THAT DOESN'T EVEN MAKE SENSE. Those are just phrases they guy put together, they literally have no meaning.
Rainball, I totally agree. If you are not building your team through the draft you are not building it right. Giants, Royals and Cardinals were all built mostly through drafting and small free agent signings. I was just interested on how these people think there is any shot at getting Bochy. First, we do not make trades with the Dodgers. Second, why would we trade one of if not the best manager in baseball. I just didn't know if manager contracts were different than player contracts where he could quit and join another team if he wanted to. I didn't think they were different and figured he is ours until 2019.
DeleteThe Giants did take Bochy from the Padres while he still had time on his contract, but it was clear that the Pads and Boch were just about done. There is no way the Giants are breaking up the Dynasty unless forced into it by retirement and/or years of bad play.
DeleteNot just clear, but it was reported to be clear. The difference with Bochy/SD is that Alderson made it very clear that Bochy will not be the manager after his one year remaining on his contact was up, I believe it was reported in public, so he could be a lame duck manager or pursue a job elsewhere, which Alderson reportedly told him to do. Luckily the Giants were willing to listen even with Alou in the position (from what I recall, it was out of the blue, Alou shifting, Bochy coming in).
DeleteIn this case, the Giants have him signed for four more seasons, and both sides are very happy, from all appearances, and especially since Sabean and he has become best buds. While, as the saying goes, everything has its price, I really don't see either the Giants allowing him to talk with the Dodgers or Bochy wanting to talk to the Dodgers, let alone the two sides agreeing on a trade. Why would the Giants allow him to talk? Only if he says he wanted to talk is my guess.
Why would he want to move to LA? Right now, he's a god in SF. We would still appreciate him and all that, but if he moves to LA, that's burning the bridge right there with many fans. Also, with his heart condition, why move to LA and take on all the pressures that come with that? His wife wouldn't be happy with him taking on all that stress. And I'm not aware of any personal connection with LA, like Butler, Schmidt, others had, even Kent, but he was an Army brat, travelling the world, born in France I believe, and made his name with Astros and Padres. He's been there done that with Padres, so unless the Astros come a-calling, I don't see why Bochy would move from the Giants.
Generally, teams cannot buy a championship. Nobody seems to have enough money to do that, except maybe the Yankees (I thought the Dodgers might, but so far, so bad for them, yea!). But if you look at their history under the Steinbrenners, the only time they truly had a dynasty like the old days was in the late 90's, when the team led by Jeter, Petite, Rivera, Posada (i.e. the guys Sabean obtained and developed for the Yankees) won all those championships. They also won with Reggie, but that was the early days of free agency when other teams were still unskilled in dealing with that. That last one I consider bought, but that was just the one.
DeleteMoney helps, but it has to be part of a bigger plan. The Yankees of the late 1990's were mostly homegrown with free agent pieces to fill holes. The D'Backs more or less bought 1 championship by signing RJ and Curt Schilling I think the Yankees won one year in the 2000 decade with a bought team. Other than that, it's been mostly unsuccessful.
DeleteBochy's signed through 2019. I seriously doubt the Giants would release him to go manage the Dodgers of all clubs! And I can't imagine why he want to. Bloated payroll. Lots of egos. Losing one of their two best pitchers. And a GM that left the last Manager hung-out to dry with a pathetic bullpen that only the Dodger fanboy/apologists at FanGraphs liked while most everyone was of the consideration that it was substandard and an Achilles heel.
ReplyDeleteJust an updated blub from MLB Trade Rumors (and no, there is nothing on MLBTR about Bochy and the Dodgers):
ReplyDelete•Starting pitching will be a focus for the Giants, who are interested in Zack Greinke and Mike Leake, Heyman writes. They will also exercise their $5.5MM club option on Nori Aoki, so long as he continues to progress from late-season head injuries that stemmed from being hit in the head by a pair of pitches. San Francisco will decline Marlon Byrd‘s $8MM option.
I wonder if the Giants seriously think they have a shot at Greinke and if they think Greinke would consider coming to SF? That would be a real combination punch to the Dodgers, that's for sure!
DeleteHey Doc, what do you think of Brett Anderson as a Tier 3 prospect? He had the highest groundball pct in MLB this year, which plays into the infield strength of the Giants, and he stayed healthy for a full year finally. Maybe a lower AAV deal with incentives again, or do you think this year alleviates his health concerns? If the Giants go after Greinke (and get him) and find Leake too expensive, it might be fun to take 2 pitchers from the Dodgers!
DeleteMy opinion is that Greinke is not leaving LA. One, I think he likes being there. Two, LAD is way over the threshold and so appear willing to pay whatever it would take to keep Greinke. That's a deadly combination for any hopes of the Giants stealing him away, as much as I love entertaining that thought.
DeleteI think the Giants will get involved in order to drive his price up. If he somehow chose the Giants, great, but getting the Dodgers to pay more is the goal, I believe.
I do not think much of Anderson. I see him being a redux of McCarthy, where the pitcher has a history of injuries and never pitching a full season, then has a good full season, signs a big contract, then gets injured again. Let LA keep that (and pay more for that :).
I don't think it's likely that Greinke leaves LA, but I would not be shocked if he did. Greinke is going to go where he gets the biggest contract and I'm not so sure the Dodgers want to keep paying all that money out in Luxury Tax fees. Friedman was brought in for a reason and I think it was to find a way to win without the profligate spending. We'll see.
DeleteI still see the Giants needing to add or re-sign at least two if not three starting pitchers. On their 40 man roster right now only Bumgarner, Peavy, Heston, Cain, and Leake are currenlty listed. (besides Lincecum and Hudson). I don't think we can count on Cain to be healthy and his old self. Leake is a free agent. I like Heston, but the league really started to figure him out last year. Are we planning on seeing if Stratton can join the rotation? Otherwise, we really only have two solid starters going into next year. I think we need to add a frontline start and one more, at least.
ReplyDeleteI wouldl ike to see them add Price, but I also think we should look at this list of second and third tier guys and sign at least two of them to two year deals to bridge the gap til guys like Beede are ready.
Here is my version of a reasonable offseason trying to stay under cap:
ReplyDeleteSign Zack Greinke. Pick up option on Aoki. Trade for Carlos Carrasco (VERY cost controlled until 2019) which would headline Susac, Beede and C. Johnson. Sign Ben Zobrist for 2 years as a nice depth signing. He can platoon with Aoki and also cover corner OF injuries as well as injuries to 2B, 3B and 1B. Very versatile. Blanco can give Pagan days off.
Rotation: Bum, Greinke, Carrasco, Peavy and (Cain or Heston or Blackburn)
Bullpen: Romo, Strickland, Kontos, Casilla, Osich, Lopez, Petit
OF: Zobrist, Blanco, Aoki, Pagan, Pence
IF: Belt, Panik, Crawford, Duffy, Tomlinson, Adrianza
C: Posey, Brown
Love it! Let's go with it. Get Bobby on the phone. My favorite parts (aside from the top tier SP signing) are trading for Carrasco (couldn't love it more) and no passing up on Leake. Personally, I think Happ is the only pitcher on this list I would rather have than Leake considering the contracts I expect to be handed out.
DeleteI would trade Belt before I have up that package of prospects. Move Posey to 1B and Susac at catcher and used the savings toward the pitcher
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball