It's no secret that the Giants will be shopping for starting pitching this offseason and all indications are they won't be looking in the bargain bin or scouring dumpsters. No, the Giants absolutely have to acquire at least 1 high end SP and could use 2. With almost $50 M coming off their 2015 payroll, and only one current obligation beyond 2017 and with a much stronger farm system than they are generally given credit for, they are in good position to compete for the top tier of free agents this offseason if they so choose. In my mind, there are definitely 2 FA pitchers who qualify at "top tier" and possibly 3. David Price and Zack Greinke(assuming he opts out of his contract with the Dodgers, which he almost certainly will) are definite top tier. I will add Johnny Cueto, although current injury concerns make him more of a 1.5 tier in my mind. Let's take a closer look at these 3 pitchers:
David Price: Price is rare big LHP at 6'6", 220 lbs. He is a hard thrower whose average FB velocity of 94 MPH in 2015 is actually an increase over his prior 2 seasons. He just turned 30 years old on August 28, so the first season of his new contract will be his age 30 season. Here are his career stats:
104-56, 3.09, 8.57 K/9, 2.32 BB/9.
He has pitched his entire career in the AL with most of it for Tampa Bay in the hitter-friendly AL East. He has a history of struggling in postseason starts which may be just a sample-size issue.
Zack Greinke: Greinke is in the 3'rd year of a 6 year contract with the Dodgers. He is owed $71 M over the next 3 seasons, but can opt out after this year. Seeing as how his last 3 seasons have been among the best in all of baseball, he can certainly get a much larger total package than the $71 M he is guaranteed if he does not opt out. Greinke will turn 32 years old in a few days so the first year of his possible new contract will be his age 32 season. Here are his career stats:
142-93, 3.35, 8.11 K/9, 2.18 BB/9.
His numbers over his last 3 seasons with the Dodgers are significantly better than he career averages with a 3 year run which is, again, one of the best in all of baseball over that span. His average FB velocity has remained stable at just under 92 MPH for the past 3 seasons after averaging 94 in his rookie year. He has limited postseason experience, but has performed well in a small sample. Although he won't be cheap, his extra 2 years of age might be expected to yield a contract that is 1-2 years shorter than David Price's and $40-60 M less in total cost. On the other hand, the Dodgers can still give him a Qualifying Offer if he opts out, so signing him would cost a first round draft pick whereas Price and Cueto would not.
Johnny Cueto: Cueto has pitched in an extremely hitter friendly park in Cincinnati for most of his career and still put up top tier numbers. He was traded to KC, a much more pitcher friendly ballpark at the deadline this year, but inexplicably had a string of subpar performances after missing some time earlier in the season with some vague injury concerns. He did have a strong performance yesterday and will have more looks as the Royals advanced in the AL playoffs. Here are his career stats:
96-70, 3.30, 7.42 K/9, 2.60 BB/9.
Prior to the hiccup after the trade to KC, Cueto had been a very steady performer putting up consistent numbers, again in a very hitter friendly ballpark. His average FB velocity has remained just above 92 MPH over the past 5 seasons. He does have a history of a couple of oblique strains and there was something funky with his arm before the trade. How he performs the remainder of the postseason could be a big factor in how teams assess his future risk. He is actually the youngest of the 3 top tier guys and 2016 will be his age 30 season. A team convinced he is fully healthy will place a big value on him.
Again, the Giants are in an excellent position to go after one of these top tier guys if that is what they want to do. The fact that they have not rushed to lock up Mike Leake tells me they may well be keeping their powder dry for a run at one of them. Price will be the priciest with Max Scherzer's contract being the benchmark. That contract was 7/$210 M, but is structured very oddly with no single season costing more than $15 M, but the Nationals paying him that much through 2028! If there is a pitcher who is likely to stay healthy for the duration of a contract like that, Price seems like the guy to me.
Zack Greinke will come a bit cheaper, at least in total cost, although the AAV may be as high as for Price or higher. Greinke's last 3 seasons have been as good as any in baseball. The downside of Greinke would be he would cost a draft pick, but a huge positive is the negative impact on the Dodgers if the Giants signed him away. Yeah, I think that's worth a late-mid round draft pick!
I see Cueto as being a fallback option if Price's price is just too ridiculous and if Greinke just signs an extension with the Dodgers. I have to say, the injury concerns on Cueto give me enough pause that I might prefer to go for a second tier guy like Leake who may be healthier.
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Not related, but interesting, from Pavs: http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/giants-september-recap-rookies-take-over-down-stretch
ReplyDelete7. They Went to Jarrett: There were a lot of good things that happened as the season slipped away, and the development of Parker is near the top of the list. One scout told me after his call-up that he has 80 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and it showed during a series in Oakland. Parker went upper deck for a 474 foot homer that was the longest by a Giant in 2015 and put him in the top 10 for all MLB players. Then he busted out a three-homer game that included a grand slam. At that point, Parker was the first player in MLB history to slug 1.000 or higher in his first 14 games. Parker slowed from there, but still finished his rookie year with a .755 slugging percentage. Here’s the list of MLB players with at least 50 plate appearances in 2015 and a slugging percentage over .750:
Jarrett Parker (.755)
Here’s the list of players with at least 50 plate appearances and a slugging percentage over .650:
Jarrett Parker (.755)
Bryce Harper led the Majors with a .649 slugging percentage and just 13 other players finished within 200 points of Parker. It was a very small sample, but it was enough to put Parker on the radar, and he’ll have a shot at an Opening Day job next spring. As Bochy said many times, Parker opened a lot of eyes.
If he's got 80 power it would help explain why he his MiLB BAPIP is somewhere around .375 (average) for the past 6 years. And that kind of raw power would, to a great extent, offset his high strike-outs and drive a' good-enough' to 'outright respectable' batting average.
It's somewhat related because it's the development of homegrown players like Tomlinson, Parker, Duffy, etc that makes it thinkable to spend what it takes to sign a David Price or Zack Greinke because they help keep costs of other roster spots down.
DeleteAn excellent recap/comparion, DrB. Thanks for putting that together.
ReplyDeleteI think I lean toward Price. What kind of package (years/dollars) do you all think it would take to acquire him?
Scherzer is the obvious precedent. His contract is 7 Years/$210 M but it's structure very strangely with fully half of it deferred past the 7'th year of the contract a fourth paid up front in a massive signing bonus.
DeleteNow, maybe there aren't any more teams out there willing to pay that kind of money for an ace pitcher, but I wouldn't bet against it, so I'm going to say that if the Giants seriously want to sign either Price of Greinke, they better be planning on spending at least $200 M for Price and $150 M for Greinke.
Good post Doc B. The Giants should have the funds to go after one of these three guys. I would really like to see Greinke or Price in a G's uniform. I am still a little cautious given the Zito contract, but they won despite that contract. I really think that the Giants need to sign 2 starting pitchers to compliment Bum, Peavy. It seemed like the league figured out Heston in the second half of the year. It also appears that we cannot rely on Cain being healthy and his old self. If he is, that's a bonus. I looked over the list of free agent starters and some others named popped out to me. Mark Buerhle - he's 37, but has really pitched well in recent years. Could he be had on a Hudsonesque two year deal? Hisashi Iwakuma is 35 and has been injury prone over the last two years, but he is great when health and on. I also looked at Doug Fister and Ian Kennedy (32 and 31). I don't know if they would be looking for moderate 5 year deals, but I'd like to see either of them on a 2 year deal. A rotation of Bumgarner, Price/Greinke, Peavy, Leake, Buerhle/Iwakuma would be great. Keep Heston as the 6th starter when injuries occur. That would be a veteran rotation that would give leadership to a exciting group of younger offensive players.
ReplyDeleteDrB, do you think if the Giants acquired Greinke or Cueto around $150MM that they will still sign Leake or do you think it would force them to get someone cheaper like Fister, Gallardo, etc? I am wondering because it seems that they really like Leake and might want to add him regardless. Supposedly the stadium will be paid off in 2017 but I don't know necessarily if this money would be put into the team. The Giants are great businessmen and although they could afford a $200MM+ payroll, paying millions of dollars for luxury tax does not seem like the right move for them. The Dodgers will pay around $44MM in luxury taxes this year and that is a whole lot of money that goes toward nothing.
ReplyDeleteI still wonder about 1 v. 2 pitchers. We have Bumgarner, and Peavy looked awful good at the end of the year. Considering we have Cain on the roster, if you are doing 2 you're either assuming Cain doesn't play (not unreasonable) or they're not leaving any room for the kids. Granted, Heston petered out at the end, but how can you not like Blackburn as a 5th guy given what he did even if you think Heston isn't the answer? The Giants have been very smart in trusting their farm, over the advice and impressions of the so called experts. Meija, Blackburn, Beede are all no more than 2 years away, and you have to think others like their 2015 picks and some sleepers are not far away. And I'm not even including Stratton or Crick in that mix.
ReplyDeleteAs much as I am worried about Cain, I still lean one guy. I think the Dodgers will beat everyone for Greinke because they just can't afford to lose him. So, I'd probably focus on Price. The issue I think is if you don't get either, do you go with Cueto or Leake.
As for Parker, I'm hoping he is our starting LF next year. I would like to see a OF of Pence, Pagan/Blanco and Parker, with one guy more. Then an IF of Kelby and EA. Kelby grooms to take over CF, Mac to replace Pence (in AAA) and Parker in the long term. Gives guys like Fox, Arroyo, etc a chance to come up. Man, talk about pipeline. Giants are becoming shades of the 70s Dodgers.
I agree about Price although he might be too expensive for the Giants. Something about dominant lefties such a Bum, Kershaw, Price that seem to eat through an opposing lineups.
DeleteYou cannot pencil in Blackburn for anything other than AAA. He has zero MLB experience and the Giants rarely if ever start a rookie off the beginning of the year. Heston was the exception because Cain couldn't go. Bumgarner was more highly regarded than Blackburn is now and he didn't start until June 26th. He only had a few starts the year before as a September call up. So even if Blackburn dominates in Spring Training I don't see him starting unless we have injuries.
You cannot pencil Parker in for LF either. He only played because of injuries. If Aoki or Blanco are healthy they will get the majority of the starts. You have to realize that he only has 54 plate appearances. He did well hitting the ball but he had 21 strikeouts and 5 walks. So technically he struck out in 21 out of 49 ABs which is 43% of the time. That is not good at all. Yes, he did well in those other ABs but averaged over a full season and there is no way his batting average will be anything close to .347. More like .247. I only see him right now as a reserve OF and with time hopefully he could be an everyday player. But man, he needs to keep the strikeouts down.
I'm not one for 'yes, but,' but Peavy was pretty good once he came back. And he finished with a very respectable ERA (3.58) despite those 8 runs in 7.2 innings when he was hurt. So, yes, but for the fact his first two starts were an unmitigated disaster where he was looking like sinking boat up there, he was good.
DeleteI lean two-guys. Bumgarner, ______________, Peavy, _____________, Cain. In the two blanks, we may find Heston in one of them. Or we may find him in AAA in case Cain can't go. I think Blackburn is in a similar situation -- AAA unless Cain can't go. I think one of them could even be trade bait and may be held in AAA for just that reason.
I'd prefer Price, but I don't really see the Giants retaining any of the top three guys. More likely I think we'll see some combination of 2nd tier + 3rd-4th tier. Something like Zimmermann + Chen.
ReplyDeleteIf Leake is the best pitcher they sign, I will be extremely disappointed. I don't see him as a 2nd tier quality pitcher but I think he may very well end up being paid as one.
Zack Greinke has opt out of his contract get it done Giants
ReplyDeleteWe need to keep in mind that whatever the G's pay per year for a top flight FA pitcher, they will have to pay MadBum more per year when it comes time to negotiate an extension of his contract. APGiantsfan
ReplyDeleteThe Giants have Bumgarner locked up through 2019
DeleteBy signing Greinke the Giants not only would get a premier pitcher but take one from the Dodgers. I think that is the play.
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball
Definitely want Price number 1. He is a big lefty, former number 1 overall pick who has just been an ace ever since he first came up to the bigs. He is legit and only turning 30 once the season starts. Greinke I would be okay with too but he's a little older so the contract would have to be shorter, but he's obviously legit as well and would kill it in our ballpark. Cueto I would really prefer not to pony up the dough over the other 2 guys. Besides injury concerns, he's not a big guy and seems way more likely than the other 2 to decline. Just my opinion.
ReplyDelete