Billy Beane today, acquired the Holy Grail of Sabermetrics, AKA Ben Zobrist in a 5-player trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. Here's the full trade: Rays send Zobrist and SS Yunel Escobar to the A's for C/1B/DH John Jaso and 2 prospects, SS Daniel Robertson and OF Boog Powell(no relation to THE Boog Powell of the '60's and '70's O's teams. Robertson was the top ranked A's prospect by most prospect rankings and Powell was around #10 or so. Jaso has also been a SABR darling and both Robertson and Powell put up Zobristian numbers in the minors last year. In addition, the A's send $1 M to the Rays to help cover Jaso's salary. Really?
Since some Giants fans in other corners of the internets are bemoaning the fact that the Giants "lost out" on Zobrist, and since Zobrist is the biggest name involved in the trade, I will expound once again why I am not heartbroken over the Giants "losing out" on him. Now, don't get me wrong. I think Zobrist is a good player. He would be probably be an upgrade for the Giants in LF and at the very least would have given them better depth by moving Blanco to a 4'th OF role. I just don't think Zobrist is nearly as good as he used to be and I don't think he would have been enough of an upgrade to justify losing the kind of talent the A's traded for him. Zobrist's offensive numbers slipped for the second straight year last year. His slash line was .272/.354/.395, 10 HR, 10 SB. OK numbers but Zobrist somehow put up a fWAR of 5.7 giving him an fWAR greater than 5 for the 4'th straight year. Nobody can quite figure out how he did it, but the crazy good WAR score seems to be mainly due to come crazy good defensive metrics. His Steamer projection for 2015 is approximately the same as his line from 2014 except for a regression in fWAR to 3.6, still pretty good. So, there you have it. Yes, Zobrist is a good player. Yes, Zobrist could likely help the Giants in 2015. No, I don't think Zobrist is enough of an upgrade to justify trading the kind of package the A's gave up and not worth the kind of package the Giants would have had to give up.
The other angle I would like to look at is what the A's starting lineup and rotation currently look like:
C Stephen Vogt(probable platoon with Josh Phegley as Vogt bats LH and Phegley bats RH).
1B Ike Davis
2B Marcus Semien or Zobrist
3B Brett Lawrie
SS Yunel Escobar
LF Zobrist or Sam Fuld or Billy Burns
CF Coco Crisp
RF Josh Reddick
DH Billy Butler
SP Sonny Gray
SP Scott Kazmir
SP Jesse Chavez
SP Jesse Hahn
SP Drew Pomeranz
AJ Griffin and Jarrod Parker are due back around midseason.
Maybe Brett Lawrie finally has his long-awaited breakout season and make Billy Beane a genius once again. Barring that, I just don't see a contending team here no matter what the WAR scores add up to. It seems to me that Billy did not have to trade Josh Donaldson and he did not have to trade Jeff Samardzija and this team would look a whole lot better with those two players minus Brett Lawrie, Semien and Josh Phegley, but maybe there is something I am just not seeing?
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Trading away Russell could turn out to be a huge mistake, which he may have tried to justify because Robertson was next in line at SS. And now he trades away Robertson. Neither Escobar nor Zobrist will be a long term fixture at SS like Russell or Robertson promised to have been. Beane used to trade the present for the future, then he traded the future for the present. Now he seems to be doing a lot of running around but ending up in the same place. If Sabean had traded away his top two prospects at the key position of SS or made moves similar to Beane, he would be hung in effigy, yet Beane is lauded as a genius and hailed for not being afraid to make bold moves to compete. Because Sabean will always be seen as "old school" he will never be appreciated by today's self proclaimed sabermetric experts. Perhaps Sabean will finally receive his due on the day he enters Cooperstown (with Beane looking on from the outside).
ReplyDeleteWho votes on GMs into the hall? I bet Beans makes it in - I'd be surprised if he didn't.
DeleteNot sure what Beane has ever done to justify being in the hall of fame. No world series rings, constantly loses in the 1st round of the playoffs, makes terrible decisions when it comes to spending money, and hasn't been successful with the draft at all. The Hudson/Giambi/Tejada/Mulder/Zito days were all players acquired before he got there and that was when they were the most legit under Beane. He's good at acquiring talent but at what cost? Most the guys he got this offseason are projected to be back of the rotation starters, bullpen arms, and fringe/utility players/platoon players at best. He just keeps reshuffling his deck of cards every few years hoping to get lucky. He has no vision whatsoever. Even if the A's put up a winning season next year, expect the results to be the same as they've always been under Beane: no world series or playoff wins.
DeleteIf you are looking for a HOF GM, I think Brian Sabean has a better resume than any other active GM's right now.
DeleteThe Giants should sign Reimold.Solid player.Nice platoon piece.Bat off the bench.Or trade for Victorino.I wonder if they're checking on Billingsley and Ugando.
ReplyDeleteReimold is projected to have a K rate of 29%. I'll pass on that one. Giants already have a similar player in Justin Maxwell. Victorino might be a smart move, but do we really want to be looking at that face in a Giants uniform? I'd be OK with Billz and Ogando on minor league deals, but both are long shots due to all the injuries.
Delete"do we really want to be looking at that face in a Giants uniform ". That has to be in the top ten greatest Dr B quotes of all time, I concur.
DeleteThanks for the info on Reimold.Don't like guys that K a lot.Ugando's medical a don't look good.So,he's out.Maybe Beachy or Billingsley.Victorino would be a nice add.Are you gonna do some more draft profiles tomorrow?
DeleteIn Sabean We Trust!
ReplyDeleteNo matter how you cut it, Zobrist would have been an upgrade for 2015, with a probable draft pick next year. The losses would be the future. More than Sabean would countenance.
We stood pat after 2010 and lost.
We stood pat after 2012 and lost.
We stood pat after 2014 and ....
Zobrist has an amazing OBP, his numbers are very consistent for the past 4 years, and as a switch hitter could bat 2nd behind a healthy (?) Pagan, IF Panik overperformed last year. In any event as you say, it's a tremendous upgrade in LF and becomes another RH bat against tough LH pitching.
Maybe the return of Pagan and Cain and a full year of Belt and Peavy and Panik and Susac and Duffy is NOT standing pat after 2014 -- it is a legup on the team that won the WS but, as is every Spring, there are questions.
I said Zobrist would be an upgrade. The whole point of my post was that he would not be a TREMENDOUS upgrade. Please read before commenting!
DeleteAlso, Zobrist's numbers have NOT been consistent over the last 4 years. Again, I pointed out in the post that they have declined significantly over the past 2 seasons.
Its hard to repeat. 2011 and 2013 were injury plagued. But 2011 was close until they cratered. And 2013 the WBC involvement for 2/5 the roster definitely exacted a price. The Giants have a strong, strong core group of players. I think that gets ignored. But they will also have a big fat target on their back, and every team will play just a bit harder to take down the champs. Going year-to-year with the mid and back end rotation is definitely driving some of the discontent with the offseason. But there are a bunch more arms coming on the market next year. We've won 3 titles with a completely unsettled LF, I don't think getting some name there is a make or break move that has to be done.
DeleteNot to disagree with you -- I would not do that -- I did read what you said! I wrote: "...as you say, it's a tremendous upgrade in LF..." His power numbers have declined, but overall, he could be the ingredient that 2015 needs -- he fits. I am disappointed that so little has been done -- with some returning from injury, that may be enough to fill the Panda hole, but to get lightening to strike again, you gotta go look for it.
DeleteI think 2015 is consolidation, get rid of dead money on the pitching staff, take a breath and go for four in 2016.
Anon! Yes, I read what you said. I did NOT ever say "it's a tremendous upgrade in LF", so whey did you attribute it to me? Take out the word "tremendous" and you would have quoted me accurately. Do NOT put words in my mouth!
DeleteI remember Doc's thread earlier this winter. "Billy Beane throws in the towel for 2015". Well, not quite.
ReplyDeleteZobrist would have helped the Giants quite a bit, but clearly they did not have the pieces. With Jaso's injury situation, in almost seems like you can call Jaso/Escobar anc even swap. The A's definitely needed a SS.
So basically you they got Zo for a B/B+ prospect and maybe a C+ guy. MLB.com has Robertson around #84. This is probably below Ray's target return, but probably right for their needs. What does this trade look like on the Giants farm?
If Christian Arroyo has a studly season in the Cal League in 2015, and maybe Tyler Horan and what he did this past season, that would seem to be about the price, if you catch my drift.
Certainly not bad for Billy. He's been steadily filling his roster needs and his work is not done. Sure, they may come in third, but they should be competitive. Always good to have good baseball in the bay area, Billy Beane will always have his detractors.
-Ryan
Maybe Beane did not throw in the towel on 2015, but he might as well have. When you look at that lineup and rotation, do you honestly see a contending team? Oh, and Jaso for Escobar is NOT an even swap. According to Susan Slusser, taking on Escobar was part of the PRICE Beane had to pay to get Zobrist.
DeleteWell the Giants were in the conversation with the Rays and they didn't "win" the Zo lottery. That tells me they wanted something like Duffy and one of our pitchers in Beede, Crick, or Blackburn and that would have pissed me off. Duffy looks like he could be a clone of Zobrist in a year or two of seasoning and one of our top 5 minor league pitchers is going to be needed in the rotation in 2016. To much cost for a guy that is starting to fade.
DeleteIt's hard to know what to make of Jaso as we wasn't available to play because of concussive issues (was it?).
DeleteOh well, Billy brings excitement to the offseason, you've got to give him credit. And his teams compete year in and year out on much lower payroll than the Giants.
Seems like Giants need some big years from their guys to contend in '15.
I'm actually pretty sick of hearing payroll as an excuse for Billy Beane. Payroll didn't stop him from going out and getting some high priced talent last year now, did it?
DeleteI agree that payroll as an excuse for Beane is absolutely ridiculous. Beane is wasting 10 million per year the next 3 years on Butler, he wasted 10 mill last year (or the year before?) on a bullpen player named Jim Johnson. They gave away 1 million in the Zobrist trade and will pay Escobar a total of 13 million the next 2 years. Kazmir is making $12 mill a year at a position where the A's constantly grow back of the rotation starters on trees. Payroll is not an issue, the issue is the choices Beane makes about where to spend that money. To win you have to have a great core of veteran, reccurring players who have a voice and presence in the clubhouse so other players can look to them. You make the right decision on who you want to spend money on to keep them apart of that core, and then you fill up the rest of the roster with young prospects and smart free agent additions. Beane keeps missing with his drafts and has traded away what little great prospects he had. He also traded his studs for prospects who aren't even considered top prospects. He gave away his future to acquire some players, then traded his all stars for a large amount of OK prospects, and then traded what top prospects remained for more veterans....the past 6 months will backfire on him big time. He has no vision at all
DeleteThe reason Anon2.58PM's post is long is because Billy wants it that - too many moves for anyone to track - in order to hide what Anon wrote: Beane keeps missing with his drafts.
DeleteIn any case, more and more, I am like 'Billy who?'
I agree that Billy Beane's draft record is extremely suspect at best, but he has also traded away his top 3 prospects since the middle of the 2014 season.
DeleteSometimes I think Beane is trying to live up to the Legend of Billy Beane.
ReplyDeleteHe's just trying to field a competitive roster, and go for it when it's within reach like last year, and maintain young talent in the system all while battling with Oakland budget constraints.
DeleteFolks like to hate on him because there's a book about him, there's a movie about him, and they somehow feel bad for the players he trades and the fans that purchase jerseys.
Once you understand Billy's motives, it's business as usual and often somewhat predictable.
-Baseball Guy
If his goal is to go for it this year, then he should not have traded Donaldson and Samardzija, and I'm sick of hearing payroll as an excuse for his failures.
DeleteField a competitive roster? He traded his best pitcher and hitter for a large amount of middle tier prospects. He traded his 2nd and 3rd best bat for more middle tier prospects. By middle tier I mean back end starters, utility and fringe players. He's wasting 10 million a year for a player who's production he could match by signing a player to a minor league deal or 2 million deal. He then trades his last remaining top prospect and a valuable top offensive catcher/trade chip (and 1 million dollars!) for one year of a veteran and 13 mill/2 years for a mediocre player (Escobar). Of course we should mention the 2 terrible trades during the season, where he mortgaged his future by trading future Derek Jeter and a young, 1st round OF who could be an offensive stud for 2 pitchers, which they grow on trees by the way, one a stud and the other an average veteran. Then, while trying to go for it all, they actually subtracted major offensive value from their MAJOR LEAGUE LINE UP to add another pitcher. That trade is so horrible for this very reason: going for it all, he actually makes his lineup worse to try to improve his pitching. When you go for it all you have to trade your prospects because they won't effect your major league club. When you subtract major league talent like he did, the trade doesn't improve your team and it's just wash out.
DeleteFirst, let me make a disclosure--I am the biggest homer of them all. I am so bad that when I was a kid going away to camp in the 70s, I had my folks send me Giant clippings and would think "we're only down 20 games and have 25 left. We can still do it." Now I live in the hell that is LA, and I haven't changed. Wore my Giants jacket on the day we lost 100 games, and it was HOT.
ReplyDeleteOk, with that said, my simple observation is that this is a trade you make when you're in a pennant race, in front, have lost your starter and want to roll the dice because you never know when you get the next window. Washington shows us never ever assume next year will be the same. And this move is more like what we did for Beltran--sure we don't like the long term consequences, but it was a calculated move. But to trade three high profile picks for a guy who is a solid if not spectacular utility guy seems stupid. We have that guy. His name is Duffy. I'd rather see how he can play LF than give up two top picks and a decent get at SS. My sense is Zobrist would have cost us Beede or Crick (our two top picks), Susac and Duffy (those seem comparable in position and ranking). That is just down right crazy. Giving up Susac hurts us not because he's gone but because Posey gets worn down. Duffy is a super utility guy who can spell both Crawford (who we know needs to be spelled) and Panik. With our rotation basically about to be poster children for AARP, why the heck would we give up either Crick or Beede.
I said it during the craze for a new second baseman. JUST SAY NO.
We'll be fine. We have Carbonell, Parker, Horan and maybe even Brown to be the 4th OF. I'm actually more concerned about our rotation than I am the offense given I think a healthy Pagan, a full year of Belt, and rest for Posey and Crawford without giving up any real offense will more than make up for things if we have no injuries. If we do, we are hosed anyway. Zobrist wouldn't make a difference. Better to stand pat, draft well, compete for this year and continue to have a team built for a marathon and a race. All immediate gratification gets you is a hangover when you wake up and realize the consequences.
Don't forget Justin Maxwell as an option for LF. I think we may be underrating his potential. I know I have always like him. Yeah, it will take some capturing of lightning in a bottle, but hey, it's happened before. Thing is with Maxwell, he came essentially free, for the cost of a minor league contract.
DeleteOur rotation may be poster kids for AARP but only one of them is older than Zobrist.
Delete