Blake Miller, IF. DOB: 4/25/1990. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 195 lbs.
2013 Rookie AZL: .211/.412/.237, 19.6 BB%, 23.5 K%, 51 PA.
2013 Short Season: .309/.373/.485, 8 2B, 3 HR, 8.2 BB%, 17.3 K%, 110 PA.
2013 AFL: .193/.303/.211, 10.6 BB%, 16.7 K%, 66 PA.
2014 High A: .299/.354/.453, 24 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 6.4 BB%, 19.6 K%, 409 PA.
2014 AA: .304/.373/.402, 5 2B, 2 3B, 8.8 BB%, 20.6 K%, 102 PA.
To me, Blake Miller is an example of why the Giants farm system is better than what it is generally given credit for. He does not get a sniff in any top prospect lists. Yet, if you look at his numbers stretching back to college, he has done nothing but hit at every level. He has ideal size, a well proportioned body, can play multiple IF positions, and he hits, and hits and hits some more! I mean, what's not to like here? He got a late start in the pros as he was drafted as a college senior, so age vs level may be a big factor in getting no respect, but now that he has had significant PA's at AA, it's less of a concern. I just look at that AA line and think there is a ton of reason for optimism that the hit tool is for real. You hit like that and there is a place for you in MLB somewhere! It will be interesting to see if the Giants extend his time in AA to start 2015 or if he moves up to Sacramento. What position he settles into will be interesting to watch too. He played 2B, SS and 3B last year, but more 2B than the other two. He might be best served continuing to play multiple positions to keep his options open. He might even consider trying on an OF's glove and patrolling some in LF a la Travis Ishikawa!
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Miller was another prospect on the club All-Star list:
ReplyDelete"Miller headlines the list of 2014 San Jose position players named to the organizational All-Star team after earning team MVP honors and then finishing the season with Richmond. Miller hit a combined .300 between the Giants and Flying Squirrels – third-highest in the system among qualifying hitters. His 85 RBI’s ranked tied for second in the system while he also contributed 29 doubles, six triples and eight home runs this year. "
http://sjgiants.mlblogs.com/2014/10/09/five-sj-giants-named-organizational-all-stars/
That's nice, but organizational all-stars don't mean a whole lot. Basically it's just a list of players who put up the best numbers at a particular position regardless of age or level. I mean the catcher for the Giants list this year was the DSL dude who was something like 20 years old.
DeleteI understand that. I just find it interesting that the last two prospects you've profiled both made the team's MiLB All-Star list. Which is better than the 'failure' list.
DeleteI like Miller a lot as well. A lot of folks still think of him as the kid from the obscure college in Oregon, but as I said before, I attended/worked for a school in the same D2 conference. I've talked with our head coach about him. Most folks in the conference knew he was a MLB-caliber player, and couldn't believe he wasn't getting more hype. He was one of the best hitters for Sac State before he was at Western Oregon. The guy can play, and I think the Giants benefitted greatly from his unknown status in the draft.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting they played him in the Arizona Fall League (AFL) after his season in 2013. Do you see that often or does that mean anything, as far as how management saw him?
ReplyDeleteIs 20% K% high, slightly high or average, by itself and relative to his B% of 8% (AA numbers)?
The Giants have definitely been aggressive with Miller which I think tells you something about how management views him.
DeleteThe K rate is on the high side, but not in the red zone. His K rates seem to range in the 15-20% range. I consider anything under 20% to be good.
Giant sure do have a lot of your middle infielders coming up. Someone is going to have to make a switch to make room, especially with Panik locking up second base for the next few years.
DeleteBoth Miller and Duffy seem to be able to play multiple positions, so that helps. Much as I like Panik, I would caution that he is not necessarily a sure thing going forward, although he has earned himself a lot of rope. There are potential future trades. These things tend to work themselves out over time. Having too much of a good thing is a good problem.
DeleteI too like Panik. But his BABIP this past season was very high, and may indicate that his plate performance was boosted by lots of luck. If one regresses the BABIP to ca. .300, the "normal" level, he's mediocre, with pretty minimal power. Of course, he may make such good contact that he can maintain a high BABIP and prove himself a sure thing. We won't know for a while.
DeleteMy optimistic projection for Panik going forward is he starts to draw more walks and hit for a little more power and ends up doing what he did in San Jose, except at the MLB level. That looks doable to me and does not require him to sustain a very high BABIP.
DeleteYour projection is only a bit more optimistic than the fan projection on Fangraphs, if San Jose is your norm. I think it's entirely doable. He should draw more walks since his BB percentage in 2014 was lower than what he's been doing for his career. If his high BABIP in 2014 resulted from hard contact rather than abundant luck, he should hit for some more power too. And a reason to think that it was hard contact is that he was about 10% over league average last year in his Line Drive pct, and way better in his LD/FB percentage. When he hit the ball in the air he hit line drives much more often than the average player. He probably, the, was hitting ground balls on the nose too.
DeleteBut sophomore slumps are common enough that even if we should be closer to rubbing our hands together than to wringing them, we need to be cautious, as you were, DrB, in your original response. However, like Richard in Winnipeg below, I'm very impressed with Panik's maturity, composure, and baseball I Q, which none of them is susceptible to sophomore slumps.
You provide such great information, saves a lot of guesswork by us interested but not so deep fans.
ReplyDeleteThese glimpses into the potentials of the guys who are going to fill the holes that we all know so well at 3B, LF, and CF, assuming the other position players are more than adequate for a few years.
I sure would like to see the best OFers and 3Bman candidates dualing in Sacramento this summer for the Panik-call we can expect sometime.
A misplaced thought on SF's starting pitching (misplaced because we're talking position players mostly, lately):
How many staffs have FIVE starters who have been the ACE of a staff, and, arguably, Vogie was the Giants most reliable starter in 2011, might be SIX! And then, before the finish up guys, we have the long reliever-spot starter supreme.
Can't the mound braintrust who we know are good, maybe the best, not forge four if not five able starters out of this?
Yeah, a lot is health and comebacks, but that's mucho proven, savvy, talented guys, and if they can't be credible, there really IS an odd-year jinx!
Of course, being a past "ace" does not mean you are one now. The Giants have some depth at SP now, but I have a feeling they are going to need it and may even need to add before the trade deadline.
DeletePanik indeed has earned a "lot" of rope.
ReplyDeleteHis play in game 7 demonstrated maturity and composure beyond most rookies I've ever seen.
Richard in minus 40 below Winnipeg
What the heck happened to Blake Miller?? He was the only player in San Jose in 2014 that had any MLB potential and suddenly he has already retired!
ReplyDelete