The Giants caused a minor flare up of the hot stove embers. Unfortunately that kind of drowned out a conversation about my #23 Giants prospect, Skyler Ewing, who I am pretty excited about. The big Hot Stove news was the signing of Norichika Aoki to a 1 year/$4 M with a second year team option at $5 M with a $700 K buyout. In addition, he can earn up to $1.5 M in incentives each year of the contract, so the maximum payout is $12.5 M.
As you might recall, Aoki made a splash in his first MLB season in 2012 with the Milwaukee Brewers putting up a 10 HR/30 SB season with an OBP of over .350. Although he has continued to be a decent player, he regressed from that promising start. Here are his full stat lines over his last 3 seasons and his Steamer projection for 2015 per Fangraphs:
2012: .288/.355/.433, 10 HR, 30 SB, 7.3 BB%, 9.4 K%, 0.5 BsR, 9.3 Off, -5.7 Def, 2.3 fWAR, 588 PA.
2013: .286/.356/.370, 8 HR, 20 SB, 8.2 BB%, 5.9 K%, -3.9 BsR, -1.6 Off, -3.5 Def, 1.6 fWAR, 674 PA.
2014: .285/.349/.360, 1 HR, 17 SB, 9.8 BB%, 8.9 K%, 0.4 BsR, 2.6 Off, 0.2 Def, 2.3 fWAR, 549 PA.
2015: .279/.343/.371, 6 HR, 18 SB, 7.6 BB%, 9.0 K%, -1.1 BsR, 1.2 Off, -5.9 Def, 1.5 fWAR, 593 PA.
If I had to guess, I would say that his HR total may look more like 2014 playing in KC than 2012 and 2013 playing in Milwaukee, but hey, that's the projection. Even at that, those lines don't look a whole lot different than Gregor Blanco's. Speaking of which, here are Blanco's stat lines from 2012-2104 with his 2015 Steamer projection, again per Fangraphs:
2012: .244/.333/.344, 5 HR, 26 SB, 11.3 BB%, 23 K%, 3.6 BsR, 0.2 Off, 7.2 Def, 2.3 fWAR, 453 PA.
2013: .265/341/.350, 3 HR, 14 SB, 10.2 BB%, 18.6 K%, 1.2 BsR, 1.0 Off, 10.3 Def, 2.9 fWAR, 511 PA.
2014: .260/.333/.374, 5 HR, 16 SB, 9.2 BB%, 17.3 K%, 0.1 BsR, 3.6 Off, 1.7 Def, 2.0 fWAR, 444 PA.
2015: .249/.328/.346, 5 HR, 17 SB, 10.1 BB%, 18.9 K%, 0.6 BsR, -0.8 Off, -0.1 Def, 1.7 fWAR, 551 PA.
As you can see, Aoki gives you a higher BA and fewer K's, but in every other respect, Blanco has been the better player over the last 3 seasons. He was even a better all around baserunner in the year Aoki stole 30 bases! When you normalize their overall performance to 600 PA/season, Blanco has averaged an fWAR of 3.0 while Aoki has only mustered a 2.3.
Aoki is not an upgrade on Gregor Blanco. They are actually very similar players, but if anything, Blanco is the better of the two. What Aoki gives the Giants is depth. Hey! 2 Gregor Blanco's is better than having just one! In addition, Aoki comes very cheaply. Not only is he affordable for this season, he did not cost any prospects, a draft choice or a longterm commitment.
Everybody assumes that Aoki will be the starter in LF with Blanco on the bench waiting for Pagan to get injured. That is likely true to start the season, but mark this one down. Like last year with Morse, I think there is a high probability that Blanco is a starting OF by the end of the season whether Pagan gets injured again or not.
There is an interesting article in Fangraphs today by Jeff Sullivan in which he finally gives credit to Brian Sabean for knowing something about advanced metrics. The Giants are currently projected by Steamer to hit 108 HR's in 2015, by far the lowest total in MLB. At the same time, they are projected to have one of the higher position player fWAR's in MLB. Hey! Brian Sabean apparently believes in WAR!! Stop the presses!
At any rate, the Giants continue their evolution into a team of low K hitters who grind out AB's and keep the line moving while playing at least average defense,something Brian Sabean prophesied way back in about 2007 or so when he foresaw the precipitous decline in power across baseball, particularly with the nature of the Giants ballpark and the parks of rivals such as the Dodgers, Padres and A's, teams they play on the road every year.
It is an interesting laboratory experiment to watch progress.
BTW, if the 108 dingers is throwing you into a panic, the Giants won the WS in 2012 after hitting just 103 HR's in the regular season and the KC Royals played in the 2014 WS after hitting just 95.
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Players to watch in spring
ReplyDeleteBlackburn,Blach,Crick,Cordier,Hall, Black, Brown,Carbonell,Jackson.
It would be nice to see Brown or Carbonell add speed,defense,righty bat in OF.I wonder if we're in on Beachy or Billingsley.
I forgot Okert.
DeleteOur 2012 starting rotation had Cain (probably nursing his elbow already), Bumgarner, Vogelsong (still good), Lincencum (slightly better than what we got in 2014 or 2015?), and Zito (easy to upgrade, right).
ReplyDeleteDo we need Haren or another starter? Are they looking for one? I think so.
...2014, or will get in 2015?
Deleteso giants are gonna try defense over offense this season
ReplyDeleteim ok with it
bacci
The stat comparison I would like to see for the last 2-3 years would be the comparison between Aoki's full time stats as a starter and Blanco's stats when Pagan was injured and Blanco was forced to be a top 3 OF...Memory tells me Blanco wilted a bit and would be better as a 4tj OF who gets alot of tiem
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think AOKI is as consistent (in a good way...285/.350) as they come and is a good signing and I love Blanco as a 4th OF who is always ready to step in...And on the cheap! For one year! Yeah, power would be nice,but i still like it..
SteveVA
Blanco hit .296 in the second half last year.
DeleteYou brought that up in another thread. I answered it, but apparently you didn't go back. So I'll copy-paste it here:
DeleteThat's kind of thought provoking. Because Blanco batted .223 in the first half (mostly because of that horrible April at .125) but batted .296 in the second half and by that time he was full-time as a starter thanks to Morse, Belt & Pagan missing time and the position shifts the various injuries caused.
Something else of note, he also batted fairly poorly when he was forced into the lead-off spot (.145) but when Bochy finally put him in bottom-half of the order, his BA perked right up. But that's just one year and that's not enough data to make a real case.
So I look at 2013 to see what kind of pattern may emerge. First half he was stronger (.277) than second half (.244), supporting your assertion which 2014 rebutted. But, once again, when he was batting in the bottom-half of the order, he was batting significantly better (.283) than as a lead-off man where he batted .242.
2012 was just too small to be reliable. But it suggests the same BO problem.
Perhaps the problem is the manager failing to recognize the order-expectations pressure on Blanco might be impacting his hitting and that Blanco should be a career 6/7/8 hitter. Possibly behind Crawford or just ahead. With the lower expectations of that BO position, he could be more productive.
Or perhaps it's just normal variation and some statistical flukes. In any case, there's no reason to believe he 'fades' so much as gets stuck in unfavorable situations where he doesn't play as well.
I honestly think the leadoff thing is mostly a sample size issue. Blanco does get into ruts where he tries to do too much, though.
DeleteDR B..Let's not cherry pick with one year...
DeleteEven if we go with 2014 when Blanco hit .296, AOKI hit .317/.377 post All Star
In 2013...Blanco hit .247/.343 after the All Star break and, more importantly,,.169/.270 in JUly and .226/309 in August (the months Pagan went down).
In 2013, Aoki hit .276/.350
In 2012, Blanco hit .231/.325 post All Star
In 2012, Aoki hit .278/.340
In all cases, I'll take AOKI..none of this a slam on Blanco....I want both but think AOKI is the more durable and consistent starter
SteveVA
BTW, I'd made a keying error when I was computing Blanco's over-all 1/2 average. So I'll just copy the by-slot averages for 1 & 2:
Delete1 .213
2. .148
Not sure exactly what the keying error was, but I should have seen it.
As for the rest of Blanco, Blanco is a much better defenseman than Aoki. And another interesing bit. WHen Blanco is playing CF, Bochy does tend to put him at the top of the order. BUT, when he's playing LF, he's generally 5th through 8th. So we get some interesting BAs:
DeleteCF:
2014: .244
2013: .224
2012: .187
LF:
2014: .284
2013: .305
2012: .255
So, if Blanco is batting where he's best (bottom-of-the-order) and playing in LF, I think he's a better player than Aoki. Better defense. And, as a .280ish hitter in those less-pressure spots... So, to be honest, while I'd love some big stud LF as an upgrade, I think I'd rather go with Blanco and have him bat at the bottom-of-the-order where he thrives.
Lead-off is around 40%, or more, of his at bats in any one year. Same with CF. And the numbers (with the Giants) are consistent from year to year giving us hundreds upon hundreds of ABs with the same pattern. So I'm not sure how we can just say it's a sample-size problem when it's around half his PAs over three years.
DeleteBut if you have a different, better narrative to fit the facts, I'm certainly not one to stop-up my ears and declare Papal infallibility.
If you look at the largest sample size possible, the entirety of their production over the past 3 seasons, Blanco is clearly the better all-around player. I mean, he even had the same fWAR in about 100 fewer PA's in 2012, the year Aoki wowed everybody.
DeleteAnd Steve, come on! Are we really going to stop at BA and OBP for the second half splits? Why not add in the SLG% which gives Blanco the edge in OPS by about 30 points? Talk about cherry picking!
Your reply was he hit .296 in the second half..Nothing else..I just added OBP to the equation...Bottom line, We'll agree to disagaree and I'll leave it as I like having both players on the team and think Sabean made a smart signing....ANd if he needs power mid-season, the AOKI contract won't get in the way of anything
DeleteSteveVA
You know, I was just trying to quickly point out that Blanco had a pretty good second half which corresponded to him assuming a bigger role on the team when Pagan got hurt. I was not trying to make some grand other point that required a full stat line. You, on the other hand, called me out for cherry picking which would seem to require that you not indulge in it yourself.
DeleteI hate to point it out -- I like Blanco a lot -- but the Aoki signing does make it possible to trade Blanco if Sabean so decides. Still have Brown as a serviceable backup centerfielder. Perhaps Blanco for a righthanded version of himself.
ReplyDeleteSigning Aoki, who is an inferior player, in order to trade Blanco would not be a good move.
DeleteA word to the wise: The Wheeler-Beltran trade has been discussed to death. Any references to it in a coulda-should-woulda tone will get the button.
ReplyDeleteIt's water under the bridge. Time to move on. The Giants have won 2 WS since then, for crying out loud!
I literally laughed out loud when I read that at the end of his post. Thought the rest of the post was fine though..
DeleteEh, it's a dangerous slope though eh?
This is actually a surprisingly lackluster discussion for such a pivotal signing. I personally love it, bit I guess I figured folds would be more opinionated.
In games Aoki started, KC was 72-54
ReplyDeleteAoki slash line in KC's 2nd half (81 games): .320/.382/.414
Aoki can bat at the top of the lineup or the bottom
Aoki had a good ALDS and ALCS. Thankfully, not so much in WS!
Aoki Post All-Star: .317/.377/.408. OPS= .785.
DeleteBlanco Post All-Star(when Pagan was hurt and Blanco starting): .296/.365/.449. OPS= .814.
Let's face it. These two are basically the same player. Aoki will give you a higher BA and fewer K's. Blanco will give you slightly more power and more walks, is a better all-around baserunner and is a better defender.
In term of overall value as measured by fWAR, Blanco comes out as the slightly better player, but I'm happy to have both of 'em on the team.
DR B..Let's not cherry pick with one year...
DeleteEven if we go with 2014 when Blanco hit .296, AOKI hit .317/.377 post All Star
In 2013...Blanco hit .247/.343 after the All Star break and, more importantly,,.169/.270 in JUly and .226/309 in August (the months Pagan went down).
In 2013, Aoki hit .276/.350
In 2012, Blanco hit .231/.325 post All Star
In 2012, Aoki hit .278/.340
In all cases, I'll take AOKI..none of this a slam on Blanco....I want both but think AOKI is the more durable and consistent starter
SteveVA
Cherry picking? Cherry picking? You are calling me a cherry picker when you CONVENIENTLY fail to include SLG% and OPS in those second half splits? Come on, Steve! You are better than that!
DeleteBlanco definitely has a month or two each season in 2012-14 where he goes off the rails. He also has a month or two where he is on fire. Important cog to the Giants success, and a slick glove out there. In 2012 his 2nd half splits were miserable but he ended September en fuego.
DeleteI do think there is something to the leadoff role, I don't think its small sample, I think its the pressure he puts on himself and the stats are real. YMMV.
I do think Aoki probably has a better inner feel for what kind of a player he is and is better at staying within himself at all times.
DeleteI like the Aoki signing. Bat Blanco lower in the order. Let's get another Ring!
ReplyDeleteNWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
How about a top of the order consisting of Aoki, Panik, & Pagan: there's nearly a 75% chance one of them will be on base when Posey comes up #4 in the 1st inning.
ReplyDeleteReally set the table for Posey, Pence, and Belt.
Most teams have winning record when they score first, but Giants have been phenomenal.
If Aoki is going to be the starting LF, which I assume he is, then I would like to see him lead off with Pagan moving down in the order a bit. Third would be a great fit for him. Gives him a chance to use his gap power to drive in runs. Pagan gets a lot of doubles and triples which then take Buster out of DP situations. Then you go Buster, Pence, Belt, McGehee, Crawford. That is actually a nice lineup!
Delete