Wow! I guess Vogey just can't quit the Giants, huh? After Jake Peavy re-signed, giving the Giants 5 starters plus a swingman, it appeared there was no chance that Vogey would be back for another year as a Giant. When it was reported that he was close to a deal with the Astros I was all ready to write a Thoughts on Ryan Vogelsong farewell post. Then, in less than 24 hours, it all turned around. The Astros talks stalled. As soon as it was reported that the Giants were involved, you KNEW he was coming back. Remember, this is the guy who wouldn't sign a minor league deal with the Dodgers when literally nobody else wanted him because he DIDN'T WANT TO BE A DODGER! So the Vogey story continues for at least one more season.
Vogelsong actually had a much better season last year than his 8-13 W-L record would indicate. He started 32 games, pitched 182.2 IP. He had the second best K/BB of his Giants tenure, very close to his 2012 numbers. His average FB velocity rebounded by a full MPH into the 90 range. It would seem that even though he will turn 38 about mid-season, he still has something left in the tank.
The question now is what role is he going to play? The Giants now have 6 SP's on the roster plus Yusmeiro Petit. Will they put Petit plus one of the SP's in the bullpen? Will they dabble with a 6 man rotation to make up for the extra wear and tear of another long postseason run? How likely is everyone to stay healthy?
The most likely scenario is that when everybody is healthy, either Timmy or Vogey will come out of the bullpen, but I would like to see the Giants try some things with a 6 man rotation. Instead of a standard 6 man round-robin, I would like them to use the extra guy to allow each starter to skip a start every 6'th start or so. It could be adjusted according to who is going good and who is or isn't feeling fatigued, but I think a scheduled skipped start here and there could do wonders for an aging rotation that has been overworked now for 5 seasons.
What do you think Ryan Vogelsong's role will or should be?
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I have a sneaking hunch that Hudson won't be ready to go by Opening Day, and this move allows the Giants to not rush him back too soon. So I really do see Vogey and Timmy in the same rotation to start the season. Other than Bumgarner and Lincecum, every other starter on the club has some injury/durability concern. Peavy hasn't been the model of health over the last few years, and Cain has been DL prone since August of 2013. I personally see plenty of starts to go around for all these gentlemen, but I do think Vogey is the first guy pushed to the bullpen when all are healthy. It really all hinges on Timmy for me. If he can hang around through the first half like he did last year (3.66 ERA), Vogey could see a lot of work in the pen. But if Timmy can't hack in, I don't think the Giants will hesitate to make a swap.
ReplyDeleteI'm doing some projections right now, and here's what I've got for games started. I'd love to hear everyone's feedback, and am always open to tweak things. Should add up to 162...
MadBum 33 GS
Peavy 30 GS
Cain 29 GS
Hudson 26 GS
Lincecum 23 GS
Vogelsong 16 GS
Petit 5 GS
I agree that Hudson may not be ready when the season starts and Vogey takes his place. This will also give them time to sort out the Lincecum issue and if he isn't cutting it by the time Hudson is back then Timmy most likely go to the pen to "work it out" which is my predication of how this plays out.
ReplyDeleteAfter seeing those 2+ innings starts in the World Series this move was a "must do". I think they saw that he may actually go with another team and it pushed them both to do a deal. I think, like our position players, it gives us some flexibility and sometimes that is more important than players just plugged into specific roles, especially over the course of 162 game season. The Giants seem to value it more than most teams do.
Billy Baseball
About time on Vogey. Giants have been beating him up for the last two winters.
ReplyDeleteI like the 6-man, spot/skip starter model. Hadn't seen that floated before. It lends itself to our situation if (HUGE if) everyone gets and stays healthy.
If all the Giants starters are ready to go April 6th (Game 1) in Phoenix, wouldn't that be a first, for a few years?
ReplyDeleteThen, the Giants have -- ta dah -- 14 straight games without a break, a day off, then 9 more!
23 games in the first 24 days of the season.
One day off!
Methinks that someone in the FO looked at the freakin' schedule and said we might need another starter or two to start the season.
Thus Voggie was signed.
Dr. B, I think you're really on to something; we've got mostly (aside from MadBum) starters who are either old or in question. Vogey adds depth, so (as others point out) we can weather the potential breakdowns. And a six man rotation as you outline could really payoff late in the season.
ReplyDeleteI suggested a flexible six-man rotation a few weeks ago, on this site and Shankbone's. I didn't have Vogelsong in mind, but I agree that it might well work with him, assuming that Bumgarner and probably Cain pitches every five days, and that Bochy can phase others in and out, as he does with position players. What bothers me about the scheme is that the Giants have three dubious choices: surrender a reliever (Kontos), surrender a position player by carrying thirteen pitchers, or get a complicated pattern going by which Bochy and Righetti have to figure out how to keep starters ready for both starting and bullpen duty.
ReplyDeleteAgree with your coment, 100%.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the schedule and past history, I can see the Giants carry 13 pitchers for the first month of the season. I like Doc's 6 man skip start rotation and maybe that works later in the season but at the start I expect there maybe one or two guys that may not be ready. I wish we were as deep as the Nationals and could give Bumgarner 3-4 more weeks of rest skipping his first 3 to 5 starts of the season. He is a beast and would probably never agree to such a thing but there is a bit of concern as to how he will fare post all star break following his 2014. I'm really happy for Vogie, he always will have a place on my all Giants team for pitching with attitude and being a fellow Dodger hater.
ReplyDeleteAmen! Gotta love Vogelstrong! And his Gigantes loyalty vs Doyer $!!!!
Delete6 man rotation idea? Love it!
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
And Vogey makes 23 -- 23 of the 25 players on the WS roster are under contract plus Pagan, Cain, McGehee, and Aoki.
ReplyDeleteGiven that those 4 will be on the OD roster (if healthy), who of the 27 won't?
Duffy, Adrianza (no option years?), Machi, Arias, Strickland, Perez?
Three of those six plus Susac are on Doc's Top Prospects, but are there any other prospects or ST invitees (?) or guys like Abreu, Sanchez, Kontos, Gutiérrez with ML experience who can hope to make the magic 25?
Not everyone will be healthy, but the brains have a whole lot of talent and not much room.
Starting 8: Posey, Belt, Panik, McGehee, Crawford, Aoki, Pagan, Pence. SP(5): Bumgarner, Cain, Peavy, Hudson, LIncecum. Bullpen(7): Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Machi, Petit, Vogelsong. Bench(5): Susac, Ishikawa, Adrianza, Arias, Blanco.
DeleteThat is 25 and that is the Opening Day Active roster barring injury.
Agreed. Unless an OF lights it up in ST, Ishi will get every shot at the PH gig.
Deletewhile he doesn't seem to offer much versatility over a season, that's not what he's here for
If there's a long term OF or 1B injury, he'll get leap frogged by a AAA kid, and stay in his PH role.
I think Strickland takes Machi's spot in the pen.
DeleteI also think somebody takes Ishikawa's spot in the roster.Duffy will beat either Eihrianza or Arias.Duffy's not going to the minors.He's too valuable a bench piece to have in AAA.Having Blanco,Duffy,Susac gives us great depth off the bench.Brown,and Jackson are gonna be interesting to watch in the spring.Maybe one of them take Ishikawa's spot.
DeleteDS, don't underestimate the power of the option. Players that have them will go to Sacramento to start the season.
DeleteDo you mean Justin Maxwell rather than Jackson? I can't think of any Jackson in the organization.
I'm not positive DrB, but I'm figuring DS is referring to Brett Jackson, who the Giants Rule 5'ed this winter. Seems like a heck of a long shot. But I like the idea of getting a Rule 5, can always use the lemon law to return him, if he's not the droid we're looking for.
DeleteWhoa, am I blocked on your site now DrB? My comment is awaiting approval? Alright, sorry if I ever offended you or anybody here. Cheers.
DeletePretty sure Adrianza is out of option years. Ish would have to agree (I think) to go to Sac. Sanchez will be in Sac (I like that). Abreu, Kontos, Gutiérrez? Trade for 50th round picks? Two of them have low ML ability.
DeleteThere will be a trade or two.
No, Carmot. You are not blocked. We just had to institute a moderation policy due to some aggressive troll behavior. Your comments are welcome.
DeleteI forgot about Brett Jackson. Yeah, that is a huge longshot. I would think Justin Maxwell and several others are ahead of him on the depth chart right now.
Adrianza was out of options last year. He will be on the team, barring a trade.
Got it, DrB. Thank you. I worried, since I know you deleted a few of my previous comments a while back, I think that was a first for me anywhere on the interwebz. I certainly understand your new practice; sadly, it's the way of things I suppose. *sigh*. Please keep on keepin' on. Your informative posts are greatly appreciated.
DeleteI can't figure the pecking order for OF depth. I agree, Ishi makes the bench. I figure Perez would be next up. But Parker or Brown? Dominguez, because he can play all sorts of positions and has more pop? Maybe Horan would be able to "pull a Duffy" and get the call from AA Richmond? Maxwell seems a long shot, but so was Colvin. Jackson. Herrera should be healthy again.
Yup, Adrianza, Machi, Kontos, and Ishikawa are all appear to be out of options. Rough on Kontos, for sure. No room for him since Vogey signed.
Yeah, I remember deleting a couple of your comments, but I've long since forgotten what it was about. I think we had gotten bogged down in a "yes it is, no it isn't!", "tastes great, less filling!" argument and I finally decided you'd said your peace and it was getting too redundant.
DeleteAgain, I judge posts, not people. If the troll who seems to have an irrational love for Adam Duvall and an even greater irrational hatred for a blog he obviously comes and reads multiple times per day wants back into the discussion, all he has to do is start making reasonable comments. They will get posted.
Vogey will be in the pen.With the innings Vogey,and Petit give you out of the pen you won't have to go to six man rotation.Having 2 guys in the pen that can pitch 1-4 innings an appearance is a big deal for our staff.You'll see Vogey's velocity increase a little with the reduction in innings.I think in the future you might see older SP move to the pen to extend career.Vogey said if they want him in the pen he'll pitch out if the pen.Team player.I think Vogey's gonna have a good year.
ReplyDeleteThe nice thing is, at least to me, that the Giants really don't bank on "Petit as 6th starter." They know what they have and if he's the fall-back, they've got a serious rotation problem.
ReplyDeleteI also think the rotation will end up: Bumgarner, Cain, Peavy, Hudson, Vogelsong
And the pen: Petit, Lincecum, Affeldt, Casilla, Romo and a couple of guys from the 'we have to make hard choices group' of Kontos, Machi, Strickland, Okert, Law and Lopez.
Note: Lincecum and Vogelsong could swap roles. The Giants could go to a 6-man rotation to protect the older guys. There are other possibilities.
It's hard to believe the Giants will not give a guy they are paying $18 M every chance to win back a starting job. On the other hand, the Giants may already decided it's a sunk cost and moved on.
DeleteB/R's prospect list is out. And they have Mejia second. Is there something about him that I'm not seeing? Seems weird to give a guy who has a 50 game suspension coming up the #2 prospect status.
ReplyDeleteLists are lists. Everybody has their biases. Mejia is quite clearly not the second best prospect in the Giants system. The problem with a list like this is some people will look at Mejia's name at #2 and just stop, right there. They figure that if Mejia is #2 then everybody below him must be worse, so the system stinks. It's stuff like this that contributes to a perception of a weak Giants farm system.
DeleteHeck, baseball prospectus ranked Mejia #1! I can't for the life of me figure out why...
DeleteI like Mejia and can easily see top 5 love on a prospect list. Being left handed always gives you the benefit of the doubt when comparing a LHP to a RHP. When my son, who was a pretty good RHP, was going thru the college recruiting process we saw kids who were LHP that we knew well, that were getting better offers with equal or less stats and velocity. It's just the way it is. I know there is a 50 game suspension but that doesn't erase the fact that Mejia is big and strong and has the velocity and control to make it. Once he does make it you never know if it will be him, Crick, Beede, Blackburn or Blach that actually end up being the top performing prospect at the MLB level.
ReplyDelete