Here are the Steamer SLG% PROJECTIONS for shortstops in 2015:
1. Troy Tulowitzki- .527, 601 PA.
2. Hanley Ramirez- .474, 601 PA.
3. Javier Baez- .418, 589 PA.
4. Ian Desmond- .416, 619 PA.
5. Jose Reyes- .410, 640 PA.
6. Starlin Castro- .409, 611 PA.
7. Xander Bogaerts- .406, 547 PA.
8. Jhonny Peralta- .401, 573 PA.
9. Jed Lowrie- .397, 561 PA.
10. Wilmer Flores- .396, 513 PA.
11. JJ Hardy- .392, 616 PA.
12. Brad Miller- .389, 420 PA.
13. Asdrubal Cabrera- .383, 600 PA.
14. Jordy Mercer- .383, 564 PA.
15. Alexei Ramirez- .379, 634 PA.
16. Erick Aybar- .378, 620 PA.
17. Andrelton Simmons- .373, 625 PA.
18. Jean Segura- .372, 515 PA.
19. Danny Santana- .371, 519 PA.
20. Jimmy Rollins- .358, 561 PA.
21. Alcides Escobar- .347, 602 PA.
22. Elvis Andrus- .345, 663 PA.
Shorstop is a wasteland from about Ian Desmond on. The problem is you will have to pay a first round draft pick or over $40 for Tulo, a guy who has not stayed healthy for a full season in recent memory. Hanley is in a similar boat, although you will only need to spend a 2'nd round pick to get him. Desmond has been going in the second round in every experts mock draft I've see so far.
I would target Desmond in the second round or for about $30 in an auction. It's a steep price, but the alternatives are grim.
With a position this thin, it might be a good idea to take a flyer on breakout by Bogie.
The other way to go is to take a guy who will give you SB's such as Segura, A. Escobar or Andrus. Don't plan on you being the only one in your league who thought of that, though.
I'm just not seeing that many breakout/sleeper candidates at the position. With Didi Gregorius out of the way, Chris Owings should get about 600 PA's which would boost his HR's into double digits. If Brandon Crawford continues to improve, he would start to be fantasy relevant, even in mixed leagues.
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Steamer (fangraphs) give Craw a .350 SLG. Shouldn't that get him on your list? His 8-10 homers should get him to 8th-12th in SS next year. And he'll play. But steamer gives him a 230s AVG, he doesn't steal enough, and he is a lock for the bottom of the order (keeping his RBI/RUN chances low). I'd "watch list" him in case my first SS went down. I also think he should bat around 250 AVG rather than 230 which might mean punting your AVG.
ReplyDeleteUntil Crawford consistently bats somewhere besides the 8-hole, he is probably not a viable SS option in most fantasy leagues. I included Escobar and Andrus with lower projected SLG% because of the SB factor and they will likely go much higher than #21, #22 because of it.
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