Tyler Horan, OF. DOB: 12/2/1990. 6'2", 230 lbs. B-L, T-R.
2013 Rookie AZL: .245/.321/.388, 5 2B, 3B, 10.7 BB%, 21.4 K%, 56 PA.
2013 Short Season: .295/.372/.460, 11 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 10.1 BB%, 17.1 K%, 199 PA.
2014 Low A: .273/. 350/.481, 22 2B, 5 3B, 15 HR, 9.4 BB%, 23.2 K%, 417 PA.
2014 High A: .321/.376/.670, 5 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 7.7 BB%, 26.5 K%, 117 PA.
I've liked Tyler Horan since he was in college at Virginia Tech and I was researching the 2013 draft. He did not seem to be on many radar screens, but I really liked his numbers. I thought he fit the profile of college power hitters the Giants have tended to draft in rounds 2-5 since John Barr became the Scouting Director. The Giants ended up drafting him in round 8, and I obviously thought they got an undervalued player at that point. That's looking good so far as Horan has moved quickly into the upper levels of the Giants minor league system. What really came alive last year was his power, hitting 25 dingers between Augusta and San Jose. The HR tear he went on in San Jose was nothing short of spectacular! He got promoted to Richmond for the AA Eastern League playoffs where he kind of ran out of gas in a small sample size. The EL playoffs were dominated by pitching.
There is a ton of video on Tyler available for viewing on Youtube. You might want to check it out. For those of you who are interested, you might want to compare Horan's swing mechanics with Daniel Carbonell's. To me, they don't look that much different. Horan's has almost no load in his swing and no stride with very little, if any, weight shift. In fact, I would say there is more of a hip turn and weight shift in Carbonell's swing, yet nobody is questioning Horan's power potential. I would be interested in comments from anyone interested enough to look up the videos.
Given the way he ripped up the Cal League after his promotion and his promotion to the Richmond playoff roster, I expect Tyler Horan to start 2015 in the Richmond OF. It's always the big hurdle for hitting prospects. We'll see how he does. Right now, it's a race between him, Carbonell and Mac Williamson to see which one grabs the available OF job in SF first and whether any of them can get there before the Giants fill the position for multiple years from outside the organization. Horan and Williamson are definitely the two major power hitting OF prospects in the system.
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Dr. B, with horan, carbonell and mac you got us dreaming a full homegrown big league team on the field in couple of years. well maybe with the exception of right field blocked by pence.
ReplyDeleteThe top OF free agents for 2016 are as follows: Austin Jackson (29), Jason Heyward (26), Gerardo Parra (29), Yoenis Cespedes (30) and Justin Upton (28). Everybody on this list minus Parra should receive a QO unless they have horrible seasons. All of them are very young for free agency. I expect all of these players to receive $80-120MM contracts or at least in that neighborhood expect Gerardo Parra. Also, you have to assume a few of these players might be extended prior to free agency. This is all could be good news for Williamson, Horan and Carbonell. The Giants are not big spenders when it comes to free agency and some of these players might be too rich for their blood. The last big FA to come from outside of the organization for the OF was Rowand 5 years/$60M. Now the question I have is whether any of our prospects could be ready by 2016. I think Carbonell, Horan and Williamson could possibly be ready for a September callup in 2015 if they play well. Especially if they have "Duffy like" years. However, I don't know if they would have the time impress the front office to earn a starting spot for 2016. But, if any of thrm shows great potential maybe the Giants would a for a 1-2 year stop gap instead of a 5-7 year contract for LF. I think each of these prospects will seal their own fate with a great 2015 season.
ReplyDeleteRodger, why the rush for 2016? Pence and Pagan are signed thru 2018 and 2016 respectively. That leaves LF and Blanco and whatever mystery poor-D, power guy the Giants choose to plug in. Don't see the Giants adding a big play FA in the OF in the next three years (starting pitching is another story).
DeleteSo Yeah, the window is open for Horan/MacW/Carbonell to step up. And whoever doesn't make it puts on a 3B glove.
I said nothing about replacing Pence or Pagan. I am thinking only for LF. Reiterating that this is a big year for Horan, Williamson and Carbonell. I am hoping one steps up and is able to be a callup in 2015. I would rather we have a cost controlled solution in the pipeline for LF going forward. In FA you pay so much more than the players worth. I am a fan of Heyward and Upton but they will be over $100M for sure and cost a draft pick. It would be nice to have a productive player who is pre-arb in LF. I think we all can agree Blanco is not the future.
DeleteThinking only for 2015 will cripple you in future years. Hate hearing that we need to go all in for 2015. We obviously can get far in the playoffs focusing on defense and pitching and not picking up huge contracts.
Intriguing prospect for sure. And you know what the story is with Giants outfield prospects. We're eventually going to hit on one of these guys.
ReplyDeleteWith only 117 PA in high A (at the end of the season with flagging arms), I think it is much more likely Horan starts 2015 in SJ. If he's crushing in his next 100-200 PAs, then go for the promotion to AA. Might as well get him in a groove in the hitters league first. BB% looks good enough. We'll see how close that K rate drifts towards 30% versus stiff pitching comp. All the best to Tyler Horan!
That's my take.
-Ryan out in the hills
Historically, a playoff callup, presages an assignment to that level the following season.
DeleteSan Jose may be historically bereft of offense next year. It will be interesting to see.
DeleteSJ will be just fine with Skyler Ewing and Austin Slater. I wouldn't be shocked to see Arroyo there too.
DeleteSkyler Ewing is a good call. Slater, maybe. Skip Augusta to get Arroyo in a friendlier league? Why not?
DeleteAt any rate, pitchers will be a must follow in SJ.
-Ry
From a developmental standpoint, it would make more sense to start Arroyo in Augusta where he would likely be challenged more than the Cal. Make it a month or two then reevaluate. If he's on track, bump him to SJ. Bypassing a potentially tougher assignment would seem to set him up for more struggles at higher levels later (Richmond). Let him work things out in the SAL first. He's young and has plenty of time, shoving him up the ladder for comfort's sake could stall his progress.
DeleteSorry for the OT, just my .02...
It's a thought, but I'm not sure it works that way. AA is generally considered the biggest challenge. Buster Posey skipped it entirely while Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval only made cameo appearances there.
DeleteI would note that Pablo played 117 games at Augusta, and at a similar age to Arroyo (19). Belt and Posey were both accomplished college pick ups and therefore older. Belt put up a combined .352 BA and 23 HR's across 3 levels from A+ to AAA in 2010, a year after he was drafted. Not a sign of struggling. And Posey, well... suffice it to say there was absolutely no reason to not push him either. Not a blemish on his minors record.
DeleteSo I'd respectfully argue that a stop in Augusta for Arroyo would be prudent, especially considering his age. Of course, nothing in baseball is black and white; he could easily blast off totally skipping the SAL.
Personally, I think it's a waste to put Arroyo back in Augusta. Many prospects go directly from S-K to S-J and Arroyo tore up the NWL, but we'll just have to trust the Giants judgment on his assignment.
DeleteI get what you're saying Doc. I'm only talking about (hopefully) a quick stop there, though. And yes, I'd say by now that the Beards know what they're doing, so we'll just be rolling with whatever they decide.
DeleteYeah, along with Parker/Brown/Perez and the recent minor league signings, there should be some nice competition in the upper minors.
ReplyDeleteIf they come out with one starter, and some Sacramento shuttlers, I'd call it a sucess.
I like your optimism on Horan, it mirrors my own. I was just having a conversation with a cousin of mine who is a big Giants fan and he was asking me who I thought would be the next best hitter to come from the minors and really become a strong player for the Giants. My answer was Tyler Horan. I really like the look of our "baby bull". When comparing the right hand hitting Carbonel and left hand hitting Horan there looks like a lot of difference to me especially in the upper half of the swing. Horan keeps the bat-head in the zone longer due to having a flatter swing plane. Carbonell has quite a bit of loop in his swing but may have the bat speed to overcome that. I would like to see Carbonell start his swing with his hands back a bit farther but plenty of guys have had success with his starting point but it does create much more movement throughout the swing including the batters head. It looks like there has already been quite a bit of change to Carbonell's batting stance since he has come stateside, he is now much more upright. It sure would be nice to see both of them make it, Carbonell the defensive back in center and Horan the line backer in LF.
ReplyDeletebreaking news. our old friend, monell jr, just signed a minor league contract with the mets. good luck to him
ReplyDeletebacci
Best to Johnny. He kind of got lost in a very rich catching environment when he was here.
DeleteBlech. There's more than one way to skin a cat when it comes to power and Ill use the two I know about to illustrate. This is what a swing should look like for a linear power-hitter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AOmyjDHVf8
ReplyDeleteIt's Will Clark as a Ranger. Look how far his hips move forward as he transfers weight. It's more than his hip width. Posey has a similar swing. Pence, for all the weirdness, essentially, has the same class of swing. Sandoval had that kind swing even for a big, fat guy.
Bonds, OTOH, was very rotational. Bonds didn't move his hips as much as Clark and generated the significant portion of his power through rotation. But he had the hips for that kind of batting style; yet even he still gathers and steps forward after the gather to help generate his power: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUTW4FsMeNQ
Anyway, from what I saw of Carbonell, he doesn't do either. He stands very upright with a wide split and rotates his front foot out with virtually no hip movement and he looks kind of stiff. Now, maybe it's changed. After all, it's YouTuve footage of a dubious quality and sample and I just don't know how he's swinging NOW versus before the coaches got to him.
I think Horan has the better swing and has much better gather and weight transfer. But he's no Clark or Bonds, either.
So the obvious caveat is, it's just YouTube videos with little control or context. And there could be other factors involved that could have biased what I can see. However, from what I can see, I can see why scouts could be concerned that Carbonell will not develop his power.
There's one more caveat to what I say. Everything I know is second hand and I'm no professional or professional scout. Rather I picked it up because I have baseball family members and these things come up.
Ha, this discussion has convince me that when it comes to analyzing swing mechanics, you can say any kind of BS you want, and that includes me, and nobody can really argue with you without going through a side-by-side, frame-by-frame comparison and analysis which is obviously not possible in these types of discussions. So it ends up as a "yes it is/no it isn't" or "tastes great/less filling" type of argument. When I look at Horan's swing in multiple videos, I see a very stiff swing with very little rotation and virtually no weight transfer. His swing might be a bit more level than Carbonell's and thus stay in the strike zone longer, whatever that means, but otherwise I see very little fundamental difference in their swings. Yet, Horan somehow hit 25 HR's with that swing last year.
DeleteI agree that both Carbonell's and Horan's swings are not at all like Buster Posey's or Will Clark's. Buster Posey's swing is actually quite complicated and has a lot of moving parts. When he's going good, it is a beautiful thing, but even he gets out of sync with it at times and goes into slumps. I see Carbonell's and Horan's swings as being much more like Joe Panik's. Much less complicated with far fewer moving parts. They are less likely to produce power numbers, but maybe they are both big and strong enough that they can generate bat head speed with just their hands, arms and shoulders with just a bit of a torso twist and balance shift that is not obvious on video, but is definitely there.
Catching up to all the FB's that are mid-90's and above and then adjusting to offspeed pitches is becoming harder and harder, especially for swings with complicated timing mechanisms. I think we are seeing a trend in cutting down on movement in swing mechanics which may increase contact, but may sacrifice power. It will be interesting to see if big guys like Horan and Carbonell can still generate power out of these stripped down swings.