Ehire Adrianza, SS/2B. DOB: 8/21/1989. B-S, T-R. 6'1", 170 lbs.
2014 MLB: .237/.279/.299, 106 PA.
After I made my 2015 Top 50 Prospects list, I wasn't sure Adrianza actually still qualified as a prospect after spending all of 2014 on the MLB active roster(except for a rehab assignment). So I looked up BA's definition of a prospect. Adrianza still qualifies with 115 AB's over the last 2 seasons with 130 needed to "graduate". Service time is not a factor. IMO, Adrianza might be one of the great sleepers out there. He is a true SS, a plus defender at the toughest position to find plus defenders, except maybe catcher. I think the bat is underrated. True, he hasn't shown much at the MLB level in very limited playing time and he had his ups and downs in the minor leagues, but he also maintained walk rates ranging from 8-13% in the minors with K rates in the 15-20% range. He also batted .333 in 31 PA's in June of last year and .313 in July before going down for the season with a hammy.
I don't think it is fully appreciated how close we came to an alternate universe in last year's championship run. Joe Panik did not exactly hit the ground running after his callup and Adrianza appeared to be slowly but surely gaining control of the 2B position. Adrianza started all the games from 6/14-6/21 going 6 for 21 or a .285 BA before his first hammy. When he came back in July, Panik had still not solidified his position and Adrianza started the games from 7/21-7/24 going 4 for 14 or .267. Those are not great numbers, but they were better than what anyone else was doing up to that point. Adrianza went down with the bad hammy on 7/24 and did not return. Panik took over and continued to struggle for a few games, then went 3 for 4 on 8/4, 2 for 5 the next game and 3 for 5 the game after that. The position was his and the rest is history. The position is now Panik's to lose and he appears to have a death grip on it.
I don't know if the reason why Adrianza has not been traded yet is because other teams are not interested or because the Giants refuse to include him. Maybe the right deal just hasn't come along. For now, I expect him to be the reserve MI to start the 2015 season. If he ever gets an extended chance, I think he can be at least an average MLB SS with above average D. Problem for him is the Giants already have a guy who fits that description entrenched at the position. It will take an injury or someone doing a face plant for Adrianza to be more than a reserve with the Giants.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
One thing is absolute in baseball-- "What have you done for me lately?"
ReplyDeleteIf you really ascribe to the meaning of that question as it applies to baseball, you begin to understand that no player has a lock on a position. Ever. It's a constant grind to keep it, with the wolves incessantly howling at the door. One bad stretch and you're given a break to sort things out. If your replacement blows up while filling in, what was touted as a 6-year lock is suddenly forgotten as quickly as it arrived.
But that's what makes this all so damn interesting, right?
There were Giants teams in the past where your replacement never blew up and you survived many bad stretches.
Delete'Tomorrow do thy worst, for I have lived today.'
I like Ehire a lot. He should soak up all the INF starts ahead of Arias, who may not make it to August with Duffy looming.
ReplyDeleteThe backup INF is a huge role, and Ehire is perfect for it, entering his prime with 5 years of team control.
Yeah, it would make sense to trade this guy for his sake, but more sense to kick Arias to the curb because he does all matter of baseball skills better than Arias.
ReplyDeleteBoth Arias and Adianza start season as backups while Matt Duffy seasons in Sacramento.
Agreed. Duffy should not be left to rot on the bench. He should be improving his game and playing everyday for the River Cats. Adrianza could be a decent trade chip if a SS was to go down on another club. A guy like Tulo always seems to go down for the year.
DeleteI like Duffy in Sacramento -- we have tickets for opening day!
DeleteYah, that's what I see. When Arias's contract finishes this year, we let him walk and use Duffy and Adrianza as backups in 2016.
DeleteI still think Crawford is traded at some point this year, probably for pitching. He's our best bargaining chips, will bring us something of value in return without costing any prospects and we have a similar and cheap player in Adianza in the wings.
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball
I don't see that happening. He is probably the Gold Glove winner if it wasn't for Andlerton Simmons and he does have some decent stretches where he shows he can hit and with power. However, consistency is just not there. If he can keep his slumps down to a minimum he could be one of the best SS in the National League. I do not think he is going anywhere until Adrianza shows he can hit at the MLB level. It might take an injury for him to show us that. He is never going to prove that to us as a utility player.
DeleteI don't see Crawford going anywhere in the next 2 years at least. He's stepped up his game in 2 postseasons. Giants have a long history of sticking with guys who have gotten it done for them, maybe too long!
DeleteIf Crawford goes, Giants will be getting a really good player at a position of need. Not that it will happen; just saying it will take a really sweet deal to let Crawford go.
DeleteI don't get it then. If Crawford isn't going anywhere for the next couple of years are you saying that Ehire is either going to be traded or relegated to a bench player? If either of those happen, then I'd think we'd be making a mistake. The Giants are going to have to trade something of value to get something of value. Personally I would prefer it to be Crawford, who I think is what he is, versus a higher upside prospect or two that others are going to want.
DeleteBilly Baseball
The Giants will keep Adrianza as insurance for a potential injury to Crawford and a potential injury/faceplant by Panik.
DeleteRight now, there is nothing that Crawford or Adrianza would bring back in trade that would be an equal or higher value at another position. Not sure how long before Crawford hits free agency, but the Giants SS job is his until that time.
Crawford for one of the Met's pitchers they are dangling?
DeleteLooks like Vogey is headed to the Astros, so there is another FA starting pitcher off the table as an option.
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last time this team was so willing to hold onto a guy who appeared to have little upside? Is it because they are sure he will blossom or because no one will give them anything worthwhile in trade? It must be maddening because it has been very hard to figure out how good he is going to be. Has he been playing winter ball? I'm glad my job isn't riding on how he tuns out.
ReplyDeleteNobody's job is riding on how Adrianza turns out. I know other teams were asking for him in trade talks last year and the Giants wouldn't give him up. I don't know if that is still the case. I am not sure why you say he has so little upside. He is a plus defender at SS, he has terrific size for a SS and is very athletic looking on the field. He put up consistently good K/BB's in the minors. I think he has all kinds of upside and I believe the Giants think so too.
DeleteThis is the 1st time I have heard that he was asked for in a trade. There were a few teams who needed SS after guys got hurt last year and there was never any word of talks between those teams and the SFGs.This was at a time when 2nd base needed a solution desperately and LF was barely passable itself. As for the little updside I wrote, I should have written major uncertainty. Sure, he has plenty of athleticism which leads to his plus defender status. Yes, his K/BB rate is consistently ok in the minors, but so is his less than appealing BA, OBP and wRC+. When one looks at the AA batting numbers,he doesn't compare favorably to guys who have been successful in the majors (Belt, Panda, Bill Mueller) and I know you aren't fooled by the inflated numbers in AAA. Where you see sunshine, I see the uncertainty of fog. I hope he proves me, wrong but fear the situation where he gets to prove out.
DeleteYou are simply uninformed re. teams asking for Adrianza last offseason. All the discussion of this came out in the spring when the Giants had to keep Adrianza on the 25 man roster or risk losing him via waivers. As for his minor league stats, they were inconsistent, but not nearly as bad as you are making them out to be and they were not just good in AAA.
DeleteI would also point out that what might look like pretty crappy offense from a 1B or OF prospect might be pretty darn good from a guy who can pick it at SS at the MLB Level. Ever check out what Crawford's stats looked like in the minors?
DeleteThe deal with Adrianza, IMO, is that people write him off after one quick glance to the minor league profile. How many folks would you think realize that he was promoted to AAA at 18 years old, literally one season removed from the DSL? It was just a couple game stint, but how many players ever set foot in AAA at that young an age? The kid has had a MLB glove since he was very young. Look a little closer, and you see a guy who was young for his level nearly every step of the way, and still drew 301 BB to his 469 K. He has always shown a patient approach, yet most will point right to the .249 MiLB career average.
DeleteJust days after his first MLB call-up, he knocks one out of Yankee Stadium off of Andy Pettitte. And while most think he was useless offensively in 2014, he was hitting above .300 in both June and July before suffering his hamstring injury. It's hard for teams to call asking about a guy who's been on the DL most of the month (this in response to the comment that teams with SS needs wanted no part of him).
I'm not saying that Adrianza is a future superstar (and neither is anyone else here that I can see). But he's 25, a stud defender, he turned heads in spring training last year, and he's hitting .300+ with 3 HR in the VWL this winter. Sure, Crawford is only 27, but he's already heading into arbitration. If the Giants are looking to buy out his arb years, then I suppose they'd look at trading Adrianza. But maybe they eventually sell high on Craw? And they also still have a long-term opening at 3B. I guess I'm just not sure why you'd want to give up on a young, cheap SS with upside.
I think Adrianza is the Giants' best insurance policy to step in for Crawford in case a long term fill in is needed. The Giants value defense and Adrianza can definitely provide that at SS, perhaps even better than Crawford so they won't be missing anything in the field. I think they feel that he will hit enough so as to not prove a big void there in case Craw is out for a while. Adrianza might be worth more to the Giants than other teams, since they are the best judges of what they have on hand, and they may find trade offers for him to be underwhelming, especially if those other teams are not quite convinced he is capable of being an everyday starter right away. The Giants might be better off keeping him for now.
ReplyDeleteI have liked Adrianza for quite awhile now. In 2010 I definitely thought he would be our SS of the future way before Crawford. I still think he has better hands and footwork than Crawford and his contact skill s are probably better as well, however Craw has that arm and has proven he can hang at the big league level. It seems like every time Adrianza starts to gain some footing he has some sort of injury that derails his progress and usually it happens at the worst possible time. I would hate to see the Giants trade him now when the team that gets him would be buying low.
ReplyDeleteI believe I remember Adrianza having either an above average or even plus arm at SS. That's one of the tools that makes him a solid lock to stick at Short.
DeleteI've too have liked Adrianza from afar for a long time, and a closer look at the numbers (...goes back and checks the numbers...) shows that (Indeed!) he's had a good walk rate all the way through the system, though not a great K%. I think the kid has some power in his stroke - which is extremely level and has natural loft - and looks to finally be growing into his frame. His challenge is to stay healthy & be ready when the universe conspires to give him that next shot.
For excitement sake, I'm also in the group who wouldn't mind if the Giants can sell high on Crawford and bring back important pieces, and allow Adrianza to assume the role of SS and 8th-place hitter. I'd have to assume Crawford would be a highly sought-after piece on the market were he really available, and Adrianza promises Plus Defense and a very inexpensive present and future. Hopefully, the Giants can find a way to evaluate the MLB hit tool this year, allowing them to decipher a future at the trade deadline or next offseason - any more bench time for this kid and he's going to have a tough time starting a career at age 27.....
Adrianza went 3-5 with a double and 2 RBI tonight in the Venezuelan Winter League play-offs. In the play-off rounds , he is hitting .389 while playing shortstop.
ReplyDeletewhere are the stats available for the season - I don't see Adrianza's line at mlb.com.
DeleteLimited action?
Thanks for the info!
ReplyDeleteI still like Adrianza. People point to his poor batting lines but neglect to account for the fact that he's very young relative to the competition in most cases. They point to AAA being an offensive boost without pointing to AA as being tough on hitters sometimes.
ReplyDeleteThe key things, to me, to remember about Adrianza is that despite being very young against the competition, he didn't strike out that much, sometimes posting a very good contact rate, while also walking a lot, and coupling that with great defense at SS. That suggests the potential that when he catches up in age, and perhaps fill out more on his skinny frame, he can do more with the bat and get more hits. Hitters who can make contact, even when overmatched by the older competition, has a skill that generally translates as he rises and gains more experience. And SS has a low bar for offense, so if he can at least be replacement level, which his good contact rate and walk rate suggests that he can (a high contact hitter who can walk should be at least replacement level offensively), his defense should be enough to make him a 1-3 WAR player (I find that defense stats vary a lot), should he ever play a full season.
I agree wholeheartedly about the alternate universe view. Adrianza was on the brink of grabbing the 2B role when he got injured. I think that 3B could be his chance in 2015 should McGehee return to his poorer performing seasons (as suggested by his very high BABIP and lack of power last season).
At worse, I view Adrianza as next in the line of players like Blanco and Arias, hence another reason he's not traded. Both were good contact hitters (so was Stewart) who the Giants picked up to be good backup guys with good defense and OK offense off the bench. We have seen how injuries affect players and seasons. Crawford admitted to returning too fast in 2013, Adrianza should be at the point now that the Giants would be comfortable throwing Crawford on the DL instead of letting him play on.
I don't know why people are so down on Crawford. His contact rate can get really good sometimes, and when he's on a streak, he's got good power. Plus his very good defense (if he didn't fail on the easy plays too often, I'm sure he would win a Gold Glove one day). Plus, it is not like it is easy to find a good SS on the scrap heap or in the draft. You find a good SS, you hang on to him until he starts declining. It is not like every SS can be a Tulo or Jeter, you need to appreciate players like him as well as the Posey and Bumgarners.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, I think Crawford's ready to break out, any time now, just like Belt. People forget, but he was one of our offensive leaders early in 2014, it certainly wasn't Pablo, who was all out of whack (I think he was following Miggy's advice to be a superstar and get more walks). He's been a good enough hitter, especially considering that he's had to man the hellish #8 spot mostly, where it is tough to hit.
And you never know, should Crawford go down for any reason (see Scutaro/Holliday for example), what would we do if we didn't have Adrianza in reserve? And as much as I think Panik is a slamdunk, he's in as much danger as well, plus maybe teams figure out a weakness, at which point, maybe Adrianza gets his closeup chance again. And 3B is no sure thing either. We have a lot of reasons why the Giants would want to keep Adrianza around without considering that he has the creds in the minors that he might still break out. And the Giants like having reserves like this, like Blanco, Arias, Petit, now Vogelsong, who can come in off the bench and give a good enough performance generally.
People also forget that he's still only 25 years old. Hasn't reached his physical peak, and maybe that is all he needs to translate that good contact and walk rate into good MLB performance. Many players don't figure it out until later, not everyone is like Cain, Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner. And at worse, he's a great backup, which is what I hope from for Brown still, again, another position with low offensive threshold but where he can provide a lot of value defensively, I view Brown as Blanco's successor, should Gregor leave in free agency, or perhaps they will be a great R/L pair on the bench, should Gregor decide that staying here is better than alternatives (though I have to assume that if anyone offers him a starting job, he's gone; but he loves the place, the team, so we'll see)