Chris Stratton, RHP. DOB: 8/22/1990. 6'0", 194 lbs.
2012 Short Season: 0-1, 2.76, 16.1 IP, 5.51 BB/9, 8.82 K/9, GO/AO= 1.00.
2013 Low A: 9-3, 3.27, 132 IP, 3.20 BB/9, 8.39 K/9, GO/AO= 1.13.
2014 High A: 7-8, 5.07, 99.1 IP, 3.26 BB/9, 9.24 K/9, GO/AO= 1.52.
2014 AA: 1-1, 3.52, 23 IP, 4.70 BB/9, 7.04 K/9, GO/AO= 1.29.
Chris Stratton has been a bit of an enigma to this point in his professional career. He was the Giants first round draft pick in 2012 out of Mississippi St after a breakout college junior season. His pro debut with Salem-Keizer was cut short by a concussion suffered when he was struck in the head by a batted ball during batting practice. It took him all of the offseason to recover and the Giants conservatively placed him in Augusta for 2013 where he put up good numbers, but not as strong as you would hope for from a first rounder drafted out of college. Augusta Chronicle sportswriter, David Lee, wrote positive things about his stuff and felt he pitched better than his numbers indicated.
Stratton got off to a rough start in San Jose in 2014 with an ERA of 5.30 over his first 5 starts. He improved those numbers as the season progressed and put up strong peripheral numbers including a much improved groundball ratio. He got a late season promotion to AA where his ERA improved but his K/BB suffered. The K/BB was skewed by his second AA start in which he walked 6 batters in 3 IP throwing his K/BB out of whack in a small sample size. He pitched 6 shutout innings with 6 K's in the clinching game of the first playoff series.
Joe Ritzo in a mid-season article, reported that Stratton's FB velocity was 89-91 MPH with a good curve and changeup to complement it. I also know the Giants converted him from throwing mostly 4-seam FB's in college to mostly 2-seam in the pros. I think you can see this reflected in his steadily improved GB rates.
I think 2015 will be a key season for Stratton. With his borderline velocity, he needs to be more consistent keeping the ball down and on the ground, and his secondary stuff needs to work consistently. Right now, he is looking like his ceiling is fringe MLB starter. The guy who pops into my mind is Brad Hennessey. Pitchers can succeed in MLB with that kind of velocity, but it's a tightrope with little margin for error.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Last year you wrote he "sits 89-93, touches 95 and has impressive downward movement" with his fastball. What happened to that?
ReplyDeleteI saw him sitting at 92 in Visalia while a top prospect with the DBacks, Aaron Blair was sitting 94-96.
DeleteHe has an easy, fluid motion, and the ball jumps out of a window from behind his head so there is a little bit of deception. His 92 seems to get on hitters well enough. When I saw him, he was getting hit hard out of the stretch and with his offspeed stuff. His breaking wasn't real crisp the night I was there.
He still looks pretty lean out there and there's some room to fill in. I was hoping they'd move him to AA last year to get him out of those band boxes like the one in Visalia. Doc B is probably too down on him here at whatever in the high 20's, but Stratton has certainly been a disappointment for a 1st rounder.
Make or break year in 2015 at AA? Possibly.
PS - he also looked like a guy who could be effective as a flyball pitcher. he was able to record swings and misses and pop outs while riding that 4 seamer up in the zone.
DeleteThe "sits 89-93, touchs 95" came from Baggs, you specifically quoted him for that number, not as your own information.
DeleteCurious, he was #10 last year and "stable" but has fallen far with several guys above him traded away.
Is the good news here that 20 guys made a good bit more progress, or, after you got good measurements on his FB, you revalued him down?
Love your stuff, especially this year living in Sacramento, it will mean so much more, seeing the guys so often that are movin' on up!
DeleteThanks for the clarification, anon. I had forgotten writing that or where it came from. I would say his slippage is due more to a general improvement in the Giants system than a major slippage on Stratton's part, but Ritzo reporting a FB of 89-91 doesn't help his cause.
DeleteWell, it's unlikely to get better, BUT IF he can spot it within a dime or if it has so much movement, it's gonna be grounded or popped often, he can live. Otherwise, adios, hasta la vista, lo siento
DeleteNot that he "deserves" to be any higher, but in reality, I think he is a bit higher on the list. Just the idea that some adjustment or consistency could unlock the guy who was SEC pitcher of the year over Michael Wacha. I think he ends up pitching in the majors to some extent, with an upside to be a quality pitcher for a few years.
ReplyDeleteWatched Stratton at SJ last year and he looked really meh. Nothing stood out and there didn't seem to be any electricity in his stuff. FB at 90 - 92 high of 93. Little swing and miss and was not fooling anybody - except for the Beer Batter thank god. Got hit hard and was out by the 4th. Don't know what to make of Stratton, but agree he's got to show real progress this year to even remain in the Top 50.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Vogey is going to sign with the Giants for one year. Wonder who on the 40 man roster will get the DFA. Brown, Dominguez, Parker, Black, Gregorio, Kontos, Heston??? Probably will be one of those. Dominguez is my best guess.
ReplyDeleteWhoever it is, they'll probably clear.
Deletefine by me. giants need depth in sp and vogey will again be throwing with a chip on his shoulder to prove everyone wrong that he is done
DeleteIf Vogie or Lincecum can't be a #5, or then Petit, and the two of them become the long (we-give-up) relief.
ReplyDeleteAnd he's insurance for Hudson early. A good, like everything else this winter, not great signing.
BUT, a full season at 2014 levels by Pagan and Panik (both) plus Aoki make up for Sandoval and Morse in everything except HR power, but there will be more doubles and triples and less heartbreaks.
I'm less concerned with runs scored than runs allowed. If the starters can keep it to 3 or less through 6, we will win 90+, make the playoffs and roll the dice again.
Unfortunately, this is the Nationals year unless we can trust Matty to give it away again.
Honestly, this guy is brutal to rank. When he was drafted he was throwing 4-seamers and could, from what I read, hit 96MPH, plus he had a swing-and-a-miss slider that was his #1 pitch. Last I read people were talking about his 'meh' change-up and curve and he didn't have an MLB fastball while his stats are not exactly impressive. I haven't read anything about his slider and wonder if it has fallen a part.
ReplyDeleteI also wonder if that concussion just made him timid on the mound and that's his problem. And once he regains his confidence he'll pitch like the Round 1 talent he was graded to be.
For those who are curious, if you take out that 6 BB start that DrB mentioned, Stratton had 20 IP, 25 H, 7 R/6 ER, 6 BB, 17 K, 1 HR, or 1.55 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 ,7.7 K/9, 2.83 K/BB, 0.45 HR/9, 2.70 ERA in AA.
ReplyDeleteI noticed in the Top 50 ranking post that someone noted that Stratton has been working to induce weak contact. Could that be taken as a sign of his cautiousness after getting hit on the head by the batted ball? Or a sign of something the Giants have been working with him on? Anyone heard more about this?
In any case, I would note that at 24 YO for the 2015 season, progression would place him in AAA at 25, and majors at 26, which is still young enough to be considered a viable prospect in baseball. Only the top pitchers, like Cain and Bumgarner, reach AA by age 22 (they both did it earlier, natch) so he's not that far behind at reaching it at age 23-24. If he can continue the good line I captured above, by avoiding the bad starts (since his first two starts were shaky, I would be inclined to give him some slack for now), he could be a nice middle rotation starter, which is not bad at all to get from an 18th overall pick in the draft, that's actually pretty good.