Here are the 3B rankings by Steamer PROJECTED SLG% for 2015:
1. Miguel Cabrera- .484 648 PA
2. Kris Bryant- .496, 473 PA
3. Adrian Beltre- .484, 634 PA
4. Josh Donaldson- .470, 632 PA
5. Pablo Sandoval- .464, 597 PA
6. Nolan Arenado- .461, 616 PA
7. Anthony Rendon- .454, 644 PA
8. Ryan Zimmerman- .449, 508 PA
9. Pedro Alvarez- .448, 562 PA
10. Evan Longoria- .446, 641 PA
11. Manny Machado- .436, 609 PA
12. Kyle Seager- .433, 630 PA
13. Todd Frazier- .432, 575 PA
14. David Wright- .432, 576 PA
15. Aramis Ramirez- .431, 527 PA
16. Brett Lawrie- .427, 548 PA
17. Lonnie Chisenhall- .426, 357 PA
18. Josh Harrison- .421, 612 PA
19. Mike Moustakas- .415, 527 PA
20. Chase Headley- .412, 596 PA
21. Alex Castellanos- .408, 531 PA.
Comments:
Cabrera played 10 games at 3B last year so maintains 3B eligibility in a lot of leagues.
Ryan Zimmerman and Pedro Alvarez move to 1B, but retain 3B eligibility for 2015 in most leagues.
Rendon maintains 2B eligibility which is where most fantasy teams will roster him.
Most analysts expect the Cubs to keep Kris Bryant on the farm until May or June to get an extra year of contract control. I would not pay a premium for him, but if you can nab him late in the draft or for under $10 in an auction, he would be a nice bench stash to start the season. He is, of course, long gone in keeper leagues.
Wow! Steamer must really think Fenway Park is going to goose Sandoval's stat line! He has not come close to a .464 SLG% in 3 seasons.
I really like Nolan Arenado to have a breakout season.
So many people think Kyle Seager is undervalued, he is now overvalued. He will likely be much higher than the 12'th 3B drafted.
Josh Harrison gave elite BA last year but with an insane .353 BABIP. Expect a regression and he does not give you elite power. Double digit SB's from 3B are nice, though.
Todd Frazier put up a 20/20 season last year. Steamer thinks he'll hit 20 again, but regress in SB's.
Can Manny Machado finally stay in one piece and have the breakout season everyone thinks he can? Steamer does not think so, but .436 SLG% is solid.
Kind of jarring to see David Wright down at #14. They are moving the fences in at Citi Field once again. Will that be enough to revive his career?
Overall, 3B looks deeper this year. Other than Cabrera, I would not pay a premium price for the position. If you believe Steamer, Sandoval could be a steal moving to Fenway.
I really like Arenado!
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I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but I do believe my projections have Arenado going for 25 HR next season. He's a definite breakout candidate.
ReplyDeleteDrB, who do you think will be DFA for Ryan Vogelsong?
ReplyDeleteJust a guess, but I'll say Heston.
DeleteSurprised to see such a low ranking for Longoria. Isn't he about Pablo's age?
ReplyDeleteJust curious about stashing bench players for keeper effect (a la Kris Bryant)-- how many do you keep for this purpose usually?
We have 5 bench spots. I rarely use them to stash prospects who may or may not get called up and may or may not be all that when they are called up, but Bryant seems like he might be worth it. Last year I stashed Javier Baez and ended up dropping him when he was hitting about 200 with a 40% K rate in AAA mid-season.
DeleteWow looks like a very deep position (assisted by eligibility rules). Not a clear line between tiers and many of the lower down guys bring speed or order position that could move them up your board. I wouldn't move early on this position, but if someone drops that I love I might spring before someone else grabs him. I'd also try to avoid poison pills for my AVG.
ReplyDeleteAre Longoria and Wright (and Amaris Ramirez) really not top-tier anymore. Wow. But you might move them up because they will hit in the RBI spots in their line-ups. I don't know if you cans ay the same for Zimmerman anymore.
I agree it seems to be a fairly deep position. The thing you have to guard against though, is someone grabbing 2 or 3 to fill IF and UT positions. That could leave you with some pretty bad choices if you wait until the end of the draft.
DeleteGood point DrB. Especially if other IF positions are shallow.
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