Yesterday I commented that the Giants still do not appear to have their defensive upgrade in CF even after the signing of Austin Jackson and Gregor Blanco. If they are serious about staying under the CBT "cap", they don't have more than about $1 M to spend on the position and man, when you put it that way, it sure is curious as to why they thought it was a good idea to spend $3+ M on Jackson. I also noted that with anticipated upcoming FA signings, there may be players hitting the waiver wire which the Giants have second dibs on this year. With that in mind, I set out to find a defensive CF for the Giants and discovered they may already have him.
I went to Fangraphs and clicked on Batting Leaders and narrowed the search to CF, but widened the PA's from Qualifying to 0. In other words, If they played 1 inning of CF in 2017, they would be on the list. I then ranked them by UZR/150 which normalizes UZR to an equal number of games played, 150. Here's what I found:
Just for point of reference sake, Juan Lagares, who I think we would all agree is one of the very best defensive CF's out there, was #10 with a UZR/150 of 24.7. Billy Hamilton who was the Giants dream CF at the beginning of the offseason checked in at #29 with a 10.0. Byron Buxton who is also an elite defensive CF was #24 at 11.8.
Alen Hanson was #20 with a 16.2! Alen Hanson! Yes, he played just 78 innings in CF last year, but he apparently made some plays in that time and got that number. For what it's worth, Gorkys Hernandez was #38 with a 7.5. I am not sure who would hit better, Hanson or Hernandez. Jackson and Blanco are both likely to hit much better, but I'm pretty sure the difference in offense would be more than offset by the inferior D for Jackson/Blanco.
Looking at what's likely to be available out there and the likely cost, the Giants may be just as well off letting Hanson and Hernandez compete for the placeholder CF job until Steven Duggar proves he's ready, which might be now anyway.
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Memo to Bobby Evans: The Doctor is one smart cookie!
ReplyDeleteAgain great analysis Doc!
Richard in Winnipeg
Another Pirate!
ReplyDeleteHanson has some speed! If he can get on base! Bat him 9th!
Switchhits, too, better against LHP.
It's a good find Doc. However.
ReplyDeleteUGGGH
The problem with that "pairing" is that there is absolutely NO upside, and the floor is below sea level. The Giants cannot have minor leaguers playing important positions up the middle for the team in SF, if they even expect themselves to take themselves seriously. That's bad for a clubhouse over the long term.
Additionally, Alen Hanson was worth -0.8 Def based on fangraphs valuations in 2017, and is sitting at 0.1WAR projection for 2018 over 70PA. The reason they project him for 70PA is that he's not a viable big league player! and his BA could easily crater below .200 with extended exposure (he's never hit above .230 in 2 seasons, with no power and limited stolen base ability).
Hanson's best season in AAA was when he was 24 (his 2nd season in AAA), and his wRC+ was 102. Even being old for the league (or of average age) he was only an "Average Minor Leaguer." Further, in his entire minor league career he played 1 game in CF.
I think this is a trend based 100% on Small Sample Size. With regular at bats, this is a classic Gorkeys who'll be exposed and will not be an asset to the team. It't not a bad data point to recognize, but it's also not any kind of a solution to CF, IMHO.
The Def is an aggregate number which combines both IF and OF defense. The UZR/150 is only for his work in CF, admittedly a very small sample size, but remember we are down to dumpster diving now.
Delete...and just like that, the D'Backs sign Alex Avila to catch and DFA Rey Fuentes, a former very highly rated CF prospect whose star has faded a bit.
DeleteBTW, is anyone else having problems with the Fangraphs site? I have a very nasty pop-up ad that just won't go away. It only appears on Fangraphs.
I have not had any trouble with the fangraphs site of late. Do you use "Add Blocker" for google chrome? Highly recommend - best thing to happen to the internet in years.
DeleteIf we're going to go with a guy who's a very strong CFer defensively with concerns about the hit tool, we should just let Dugger go at it. Then again, don't want to interfere with his development..
Was it good to bring up Belt after his great 2011 Spring?
ReplyDeleteNo
Delete