GM's who appear to win offseasons often don't win regular seasons or postseasons, but winning offseasons provide an excitement of their own independent of, you know, real baseball wins or losses. Bobby Evans started out this offseason with what seemed like an impossible task: Upgrade 3 OF positions and 3B, add power to the lineup and upgrade defense at least in CF all while staying under the CBT threshold which the Giants were about $10 M short of when the offseason started. Evans, brought back memories of Bobby Fischer at a chessboard, making move to set up other moves sometimes 2 and 3 moves in advance. It was an offseason tour de force if you will.
The checkmate move came today with the signing of Austin Jackson to a free agent contract reported to be 2 years/$6 M with incentives which could boost it to $8.5 M. Grant Brisbee over at MCC has been pimping Austin Jackson all offseason and is a very happy man. I'm less thrilled, but it's an OK move that stabilizes CF and gives the Giants a net to work with under Steven Duggar.
Jackson had a solid season last year with the Cleveland Indians slashing .318/.387/.482, 19 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 3 SB, 10.1 BB%, 20.1 K% in 318 PA. The BA was fueled by a .389 BABIP, but before you go screaming about BABIP regressions, please note that Jackson's career BABIP is .352.
The only place where Bobby Evans may have fallen short of his stated offseason goals is in CF defense, assuming Jackson is going to be the starting CF. Jackson's defense is somewhat polarizing among different analysts with ratings ranging from average CF to not good at all. I guess it depends on what metric, if any you go by. The one I prefer is UZR/150 because it takes playing time out of the equation. By CF UZR/150, Jackson is not only not an upgrade on Denard Span, he may actually be worse, although Jackson's is a projection from a very small sample size for a metric that is notoriously unreliable in SSS's. If Jackson can't cut it in CF, the Giants still have Steven Duggar and Jackson would still be a fairly cheap 4'th OF option and most likely an upgrade on Gorkys Hernandez.
Bobby Evans is almost certainly done for the offseason except for a minor league signing or two, but what an offseason it's been! Again, kudos to Bobby and a truly impressive bit of GM'ing, a true tour de force! The Giants may stink in the regular season, but Bobby just may have won the offseason.
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Does this mean offseason over? Not the worst move ever but seems like it would be good to add at least one more piece. The only penalty for going over the CBT is lost international bonus money at this point so it wouldn't be a bad idea to add someone like Jon Jay to complement Jackson along with a cheap bullpen option. I would love Lorenzo Cain but that would mean lost draft picks but I'm not sure they should be as concerned about passing the CBT to add a couple more players that could make all the difference.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest concern the way this team is constructed now is leadoff. The bullpen and rotation will have their work cut out for them but I want one more option for leadoff so Cutch can bat in the middle of the lineup. I figure Jay makes the most sense since he gets on base and bats lefty. Dugger could still be the 5th OF or stay in AAA while Parker further proves his worthlessness the first month of the season as the 5th outfielder.
Penalty for going over CBT: Bumgarner has team options for 2018 and 2019. If the Giants I tend to try to re-sign him, which will presumably cost them a Paul Bunyan size arm and a leg, they had better not be paying a whopping penalty on whatever CBT overage he may produce. Hence they should try to be under in 2018 or 2019, no? This coming season, that goal seems plausible; next year, with a new set of unknowns, it may very well be less so.
DeleteIf they can stay under this year, then the CBT penalty resets and becomes much less for going over in '18 and '19. At least that's my understanding.
DeleteAlso, the Giants history suggests they will sign Bumgarner to a big extension at some point, but they should not.
DeleteDr B,
DeleteYour recollection appears Zito-like and cain be subject to bias. We appear to have been down this road before...
Hmm, not sure I understand your comment DocGroo - DrB is saying the Giants need to avoid another Zito contract: Incredible pitcher who's greatest days are very very likely behind him, and will take 5-7 years at max salary. That's what we want to avoid, and I'm very much in this party too.
DeleteI'll be honest, my hope is that the giants are struggling to stay afloat at the midway point, but Bumgarner, Crawford, Belt, Posey & Cutch are all/some of them are killing it. At that point, you sell very high on Bum and 1 or 2 of the others IF you can get back serious value in high-ceiling prospects from contenders. It's time for the 2-3 year rebuild, which would also likely net us high draft picks for the next 2-3 years.
But we'll see!
I'm really impressed with the changes over the Winter. This team was signature "aging players who won the WS and are on the downhill," but in reality we're loaded for another fun and interesting season.
Rainball,
DeleteI'm with you. It breaks my homer-heart to step back and be honest, but the way forward without going into decades of doldrums is exactly what you've laid out. Unless the Giants are clearly contenders this year and next, we need to clean some house. You're spot on that the best way to do that is to trade big contract/big production assets to contending teams who are in "win now" mode and willing to part with high level talent and deal with the money ramifications after they make a serious run.
In that particular scenario, I actually think the best player to trade would be Brandon Crawford if he gets hot. His contract is reasonable, his glove is proven, his bat can be streaky, etc. My experience tells me that when his defense begins to decline, his value will shrink to almost zero --- sell high while you can on this type of player.
One last thing on my mind: we shouldn't underestimate the power of lineup production. Posey, Cutch, and Longoria have all been the only legitimate bat in their lineups at times lately. To bulk the 3 of them together may actually boost their quality of pitches overnight. Wouldn't be surprised to see an uptick in power for all 3 because of the protection they will afford one another.
Well, from the beginning of the offseason I've been far more in favor of rebuilding than reloading. I just don't really see the Giants being able to field a play-off contending team this year, or probably the next two or three, which means the moves he made were for naught now and will cost in the future.
DeleteI really felt it was time to bite the bullet and fire-sale off some of our best assets and start stocking the farm and moving talent through the system to see if they can make it instead of finding old-retreads and trying to squeeze an improbably run out of them.
Worse, even if I was in one last run, I didn't like the trades he made. The Longoria trade has has a major chance of becoming yet another big-contract albatross around the Giants' neck. And we gave up one of our best prospects to do it. I'd have rather kept Span and platooned him with Pence on a 'hot hand' basis in LF and be done with the two of them once we went to the 40-man roster.
McCutchen... Oh boy. Evans traded our #4 prospect and Crick for the worst center fielder in the majors over the past two years. I'd rather Crick blow-up and Reynolds fail to even get a cup of coffee than have brought in the one-year-rental of McCutchen.
And now this guy. At least he was a FA. But I don't see him as a difference maker. Rather, he's the guy everybody wants to replace but there always seems to be one more need that's more critical so he just keeps piddling along with his career. He's not horrible. He's not as bad as McCutchen and Span were last year, that's for sure. But, really, he's just a place-holder. A guy that is filling a gaping hole with, hopefully, better than replacement-level baseball.
I think DocGroo was agreeing with me in a cryptic way. At least that's the way I took it.
DeleteI am not sure rebuild was an option as the Giants would have to have sold low on almost every one of their assets. I think it is reasonable to think that the additions combined with positive regressions to the mean for several core players could be a winning combination. At the beginning of the offseason, I proposed several low cost additions that would have stayed under the CBT threshold or only slightly over. Evans added more expensive pieces but was also able to subtract some sunk costs and ended up under the CBT. If the goal is to compete in 2018, I think Evans did about as good a job as you could hope for and even more. This may bite in 2020 and 2021 but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.
I have to say, the Jackson acquisition has me scratching my head a bit. He's classic tweener: Doesn't field well enough for CF and doesn't hit well enough to be a corner. He's fine as a 4'th OF, but does not address the Giants biggest stated need of upgrading D in CF.
DeleteJackson is a big plus bat against lefties - could be situational PH, plus relieve Pence/Cutch in late innings. As far as 2020 goes, you could envision a core outfield of Shaw, Duggar and a RF bat and a rotation of Bumgarner, Stratton, Blach, Beede, Gregorio or some new faces meanwhile developing new bullpen pieces for the next couple years. Don't forget if they aren't winning by July this year then any of these veterans that are playing well will fetch some good players in the fire sale.
DeleteJust saw on Twitter, from Baggs, that Jackson will be reprising his role as 4th OF. So I think we can expect 300-400 PAs, and Duggar as the starting CFer.
ReplyDeleteI would be down with Duggar as the starting CF with Jackson as 4'th OF.
DeleteI hope Austin Slater is still in the mix somewhere.
DeleteHis stats project for a full season of 500 AB's to 15 Homers and 80 RBI's
Richard In Winnipeg
The problem with Slater is he is coming off core muscle surgery which can take some time to fully recover from. The Giants needed certainty and couldn't get that from Slater. Same reason they could not count on Arroyo for 3B. Once they acquired Longoria, Arroyo was blocked for the next 4 seasons and was more valuable as a trade chip than a prospect.
DeleteYou can’t hand Duggar centerfield without a monster Spring. So little high minors experience, I don’t see how this happens.
DeleteSpring Training performance really should have nothing to do with the decision.
DeleteBaggs twitter says they are not done looking for good CF defense and suggests,a centerfielder with less then 3 yrs experience might be a trade target. Could he be,talking about that Brewers CF Keon Broxton?
ReplyDeleteLG
I did not read Baggs to say they are affirmatively looking, but rather if they are looking then it would need to be a 3 year guy. Some recent statements from the FO saying they are looking at both external and internal. Not sure why not trust Duggar than trade a bunch of prospects at this point. It does seem like Jackson will be a 4th OF, although could be a bit more of a platoon early with Duggar given R/L batting (at least until--we hope--Duggar establishes himself). As a 4 OF, not a bad get.
DeleteWill be interesting to see last spot. Mac is already 27; Slater is only 25. Both have options, IIRC. I would think that the FO would prefer Mac--need more power, he's older, need to see if he can take over or cut him and clear up a roster spot. Plus, as a 5 OF, you'd not get as many chances and they may want Slater to get every day bats given his injury. Would think Shaw starts in OF in AAA, given we lost Cutch and Pence after this year and need to start getting some new blood.
The problem with Mac is he seems to be stuck way in the back of Bochy's doghouse for whatever reason. I thought he was out of options, but apparently has one left, so will most likely start the season in AAA hoping for an opportunity.
DeletePanik can lead off.
ReplyDeleteLast year he slashed .288 .347 .421
He was 2nd on the team in ABs, and 2nd in just about every offensive stat, including BA and OBP.
Bat the basestealing threat 9th.
it'll be interesting who wins the last outfielder spot between parker and gorkys. i think they would like to have pablo and kelby be the bench players in the infield and kelby can also be the fifth outfielder.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Gorkys might be the starting CF out of the gate? Bochy has had positive things to say about him and he's a far better defensive CF than Jackson by UZR/150. Jackson and Parker would be the #4 and #5 OF's with Duggar starting the season in AAA.
DeletePlease do not put Gorkys even on the team. Steamer projects him to slash .253/.319/ .346
DeleteGorkys had his opportunity last year and did not capitalize. Much rather see what Duggar has to offer.
i think we could see gorkys and jackson platoon in center and maybe parker and pence platooning in left to start the year. i think this is mac williamson's last chance to impress or he could end up being dfa'd before the season starts.
DeleteYou would not platoon 2 RH or 2 LH hitters. It's 1 RH and 1 LH. I could see Gorky starting in CF with Austin Jackson filling in all 3 OF positions to give guys days off here and there. Maybe each of the OF starters gets 1 day off per week with Jackson starting 3 games per week as their sub.
DeleteTea leaves say Jackson is the 4th OFer, Giants not done -- yet.
DeleteAlmost has to be a trade--there's no money left is there?
About the penalties for going over the CBT: wasn't it the case that the type of compensation for Cutch when he goes FA changes based on whether the Giants are over or under the CBT? The 2nd round pick becomes a 4th round pick. Did I dream that? And while I'm ok with the trade, I agree with a poster upthread that we lose a pitcher in Crick who actually misses bats. That's why I no longer see Blach as viable. He just doesn't miss bats and his style of pitching, I would think, is easier to solve.
ReplyDeleteBlach is é was a bull dog last year.
ReplyDeleteHe deserves a full opportunity to re-earn a spot.
He has the guts of like I said a bull dog.
I will be rooting for him!
Richard in Winnipeg