When the offseason began, the Bobby Evans, Brian Sabean, Bruce Bochy and Larry Baer laid out an offseason agenda that appeared to be a conundrum, a Gordian Knot if you will. A defensive upgrade in CF, adding power in the OF and at 3B all while staying under the CBT threshold and not giving up draft picks seemed like a plan full of contradictions and mutual exclusions. Well, my friends, it looks like Bobby Evans just pulled it off and how about that?
Today, the Giants acquired OF Andrew McCutchen from the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Kyle Crick, OF Bryan Reynolds and $500 K in international bonus pool money. In addition, the Pirates send the Giants $2.5 M in cash to partially offset McCutchen's $14.5 M salary to keep the Giants far enough under the CBT threshold that they may be able to make 1 or 2 smaller scale acquisitions before they are done. Cot's has the Giants currently sitting $4.5 M below the threshold. They could also stand down and let Steven Duggar be the defensive upgrade in CF and still accomplish all of their offseason goals.
What may be more important than who the Giants gave up in the trade is who they didn't give up. In my mind the Giants untouchables were Heliot Ramos, Tyler Beede and Andrew Suarez. Ramos was off limits because he is the highest ceiling prospect the Giants have had since 2010 and possibly the highest ceiling OF prospect since....well....since Willie Mays! Beede and Suarez provide SP depth that isn't coming from anywhere else. I am not saying I'm thrilled to lose Cricky and Bryan Reynolds. I just did not consider either of them untouchable and the Giants were not going to get McCutchen for nothing. And yes, I would rather have the #2 and #5 draft picks next summer than Cricky and Reynolds and I would rather give up $500 K of international bonus pool money than $1 M.
Like the evening after the Evan Longoria trade, the Giants are a better team tonight than they were last night. If Cutch plays CF, he should be a significant offensive upgrade on Denard Span and no worse on D. If he plays a corner OF, he'll still be a significant offensive upgrade on last year as well as a definite defensive upgrade.
So, Bobby Evans deserves some serious kudos for his work this offseason. He started the offseason by whiffing on Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani, but that may have been a blessing in disguise. Since then, he played the market almost to perfection with several deft moves that not only added talent to the MLB team, but kept them under the CBT threshold and minimized damage to the farm system. Very nicely done!
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Well alright then - there's two more power bats in the lineup! Who do you see them spending the remaining $4.5M on? Speedy CF or Bullpen - there's a hole where Crick was...
ReplyDeleteThey might add a reliever. They might trade Sam Dyson and his $4.3 M salary to get more cap room which would enable a lower cost CF add like Dyson or Jackson. Could they find taker for Pence if they took a $10 M pitcher in return?
DeleteHere's the current Bullpen: Melancon, Dyson, Smith, Strick, Gearrin. Candidates for the final 2 spots: Blach(if he is not in the rotation), Okert, Osich, Fernandez, Gomez, Maronta, Snelton, Gregorio.
Still a number of ways to go. Alex P seems to think they are still in the market for a defensive CF.
I've read that the Giants are talking to RHP Scott Feldman about a minor league/ST invite deal which I think would be a terrific signing.
DeleteAlso Law for the pen. He seemed like a shoo-in for a while.
DeleteAnother benefit of this trade is when he becomes a FA, the Giants may get a draft pick from the team that signs him. That will cover one of the guys given up.
ReplyDeleteUnless the Giants re-sign him... :)
DeleteI don't see a huge upgrade. Rather what I see is we're only getting some modest power to the offense on the road and power that, based on his career splits, and his statcast profile, doesn't play at AT&T:
ReplyDeletePosey -- Exit Velocity 88.71. Average HR 393.16
McCutchen -- Exit Velocity 88.37. Average HR 394.07. And he's not being hampered by half his games being played at AT&T. Rather he played at PNC which is entirely neutral as a home field in HR park factors.
Meanwhile, his career splits say his OPS will be 11% lower at AT&T (while struggling to hit for power) than at a neutral park. So, basically, we got 89% of McCutchen's neutral field OPS (career) and 1 HR for every 40 ABs (career. And, based on what he's done as player, will not be any kind of serious power upgrade with his Buster Posey power profile. (And possibly worse, Posey deals with heavy maritime air AT&T half the year, McCutchen didn't.)
And he's not any better of defender over the past couple of years than Span. In fact, he's worse though his worst year was 2016 not 2017 like Span. However, Span, over the past two years was rated -11.8 with a -9.3 UZR/150 and -34 DRS by FanGraphs. McCutchen was rated -19.1 with a -15.1 UZR/150 and -44 DRS. Add in he had lost his starting job in CF for the Pirates which has a smaller CF than AT&T's 36,200 square feet exacerbated by that horrible run to 421 in Triples Alley. So, in every measurement, he was a worse CFer (in a smaller CF) than Span the past two years.
I'm massively not impressed with this pick-up. He's a one year rental on a guy who is a corner OFer at best. We gave up a player who has finally learned to control a couple of wipe-out pitches and has an excellent three-pitch mix as a reliever plus our #4 prospect for someone in clear decline and not any kind of real upgrade. In fact, he's really not projecting out, once you factor in the park, to be significantly better than Span. He cost us a lot. He'll be gone in a year.
What we got, for way too much, is a guy of faded, past glory who, clearly, isn't living up to his former billing. It's kind of trade that made me as a Giants/49ers/Warriors fan come to absolutely loath trades.
So I'm not impressed. This is one of those 'trades of the bad days' all over again. I just hope he goes to RF and stays healthy and doesn't completely suck at defense like he has the past couple of years.
1. I can't seem to find where I used the term "huge" to describe the upgrade.
Delete2 Using 2 year defensive stats is a bit of cherry picking as it includes McCutchen's 2016 which was a pretty significant negative outlier which I seem to remember was at least partially caused by a nagging injury.
3. I'll take a 1 year contract over almost any 5-6 year contract any day. I could be all wet here, but I consider the player cost of the trade for the Giants to be minimal.
4. I probably would have tried to go a cheaper route with a Maybin/Jay/Dyson/Jackson type signing, but we don't know that any of those players would sign with the Giants and there is a high probability that Cutch gives more value in 2018 than any of the cheaper guys.
"In fact, he's really not projecting out, once you factor in the park, to be significantly better than Span."
DeleteYes, he does.
"He cost us a lot."
No, he didn't.
"He'll be gone in a year."
Comp pick.
Just for the record, Cutch's fWAR Steamer Projection for 2018 is 2.8 while Span's is 0.6.
DeleteI'll use the term "huge upgrade" then. Just by the Steamer projections, that's 2.2 WAR. ZiPS projects 3.0 WAR. That's roughly 5 times the WAR.
DeleteIt amazes me how 31 yrs old became over the hill? I just don't want to give up draft choices and Cutch, in his contract year will be better than the last 2 years, which are huge compared to Span. Pittsburg's park favors the pitcher quite a bit more than the hitter and a step slower for McCutchen is still faster than most MLB OFers. The Giants don't always do what the fans want, but they are more right than wrong with the team and different players. No on Cain and Hamilton!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteFolks, I see this as a solid pick up, this is at the very least a one year rental. We gave up peanuts for him. CRICK, is okay very replaceable in my mind, Reyonalds might turn out to be a 4th or platoon player at best in the majors. Those are cheap pieces for a one year rental. Don't forget, that we also should get a motivated player too, since that he is playing for his last big contract. I don't see where the Sfgiants couldn't do any better. This was good trade, that should benefit the Giants this season.
ReplyDeleteNext move-Get Billy Hamilton
ReplyDeleteOpening Day lineup-
Hamilton
Panic
Posey
McCutcheon
Belt
Longoria
Pence
Crawford
Bungarner
Not bad-Projections (Steamer) has the Giants winning 85 games with McCutcheon on the team which is good enough for a wild card. I'll take it. Hope for a healthy year and bounce back from several of the Giants. Bum, Cueto and Smardzija are a strong 3 SPs and see what develops behind them. Looking forward to season. How many days til pitchers and catchers report?
I am good with the deal!
ReplyDeleteFrom the perspective he just turned 31 in October; and is a FA at the end of this season.
I would anticipate a motivated and energized Andrew MC playing in front of our fans and realizing he will be looking for a 3 to5 year deal at the end of this season.
I'm betting even with our yard a strong season from him!
Richard in Winnipeg
Remember the giants need some room for in season moves (promotions, etc).
ReplyDeleteThe team is certainly better today.
Per Schulman twitter, tax is computed in December so they could go over the tax now and adjust later midseason, if I understand it correctly.
DeleteLG
ZIPS has McCutcheon at 3.0 WAR in a corner and 3.1 in CF, I.e., essentially the same as Steamer. It has him average as a fielder in a corner (-1 DRS) and slightly lower (-9 DRS) in CF, though worth slightly more because of position. I’m guessing that comparisons between him and Span in the field are pretty irrelevant because he will play a corner for the Giants, not CF; and the reason for my guess is that from the start of this offseason the Giants have been stressing their need for a defensive expert in CF. That may be Duggar or, if they can get him with their budgetary plan, Jarrod Dyson, but if McC isn’t better than he was in Pittsburgh, I doubt that he will be/stay in CF.
ReplyDeleteI'm excited that Cutch is now a Giant, his offensive production will help this team. Feel sorry for Bucs fans, had a chance to see a game at PNC park, and know that Cutch was the face of the pirates. Giants are lucky to get him.
ReplyDeleteLG
The Giants ARE playing for the short run -- specifically 2018. Afterall, it IS an even year!
ReplyDeleteGiven that Bumgarner may or may not be with them beyond 2018 (or 2019), Cueto, Samardzija, Melancon probably won't get appreciably better in 2019 (than 2018), real help from the system, other than Slater and perhaps Duggar, is after 2018, what did the Giants give up from last year's roster for Longoria and McCutchen: Span, Arroyo, and Crick.
Of course, Longoria and McCutchen could be like the additions for 2016 and 2017 and problems pop up elsewhere to thwart success, but they do fill chasms from last year without creating a big hole anywhere else.
IMO, they must get better D in CF or that will be the gaping hole. With the offensive potential of the other 7 position players, a .200 hitter would be enough if he can save a hit every few days! Could that be Duggar?
Other than that, it's up to the players on hand to play up to their potential, Evans and Sabean cannot take the field!
Unless there is no alternative, Giants will start Duggar at Sacramento this year to avoid him becoming a "super 2"
ReplyDelete