Gregor Blanco agreed to a minor league contract with the Giants, which is how he joined the Giants in the first place back before the 2012 season. To be honest, I'm scratching my head a bit over what Gregor's path to making the team is, but this give me a good excuse to review the career of what might be the most undervalued player in Giants history, if not all of baseball history. He'll always be remembered for The Catch that saved Matt Cain's Perfect Game, but he was much more than that. For 5 seasons, Blanco always seemed to start the season as the Giants 4'th OF and always seemed to be starting by the end of the season which included the postseason twice.
From 2012-2015, 4 seasons, he ran up a fWAR of 9.3. He did that through a combination of strong plate discipline, savvy baserunnning and scintillating defense. Those are qualities that add up to winning baseball. Unfortunately for Gregor Blanco, in spite of tremendous strides in how to measure the previously unmeasurable, teams still too often pay for shiny batting averages, dingers and ribeyes. As Jeff Kent infamously put it, "the money lies in the RBI's." If you add up Blanco's career fWAR including a couple of negative years, you get 11. That should be worth a total of $78 M on the open market. Blanco's total take home pay in his career so far? About $15 M. Now THAT is value! Now he's signed a minor league deal after posting 0.5 fWAR in 256 PA's last year for the D'Backs which should be worth about $3-4 M.
The problem for the Giants is while Blanco can still get after it in LF, he is no longer a good defensive CF. Combine that with the recent signing of Austin Jackson who is in pretty much the same boat, it's hard to see how they have improved their D in CF which was their primary stated goal at the end of the 2017 season. Maybe they are still looking for their CF and Jackson/Blanco will be a L/R 4/5 OF? Stay tuned!
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It seems like a thank-you contract and one more shot at getting to the Majors. This year it's Blanco. A few years ago it was Travis Ishikawa.
ReplyDeleteLast year it was Michael Morse! If nothing else I see Blanco as motivation for Dugger, Slater, Williamson, Parker, and Shaw to impress this spring. Blanco doesn't even have to have a great spring to win a job, he just has to watch all the youngsters flop and he is our 5th OF. If I am an opposing pitcher not trying to win a job in spring training I think I would be serving up cookies to Mac and Jarret to make them look good in hopes that the Giants make them the 4th and 5th OF's.
DeleteI feel like it is going to be very hard for the Giants to stay under the CBT this year unless they trade some of their major league talent. This move makes it appear they are doing everything possible to stay under but the team isn't complete yet and there isn't room to add any more significant payroll while still staying under. Even if they break camp as is, they will need to add payroll at the trade deadline if they acquire anyone which will put them over.
ReplyDeleteIf that is the case then wouldn't it make sense for them to completely blow the payroll out of the water for a year? I'm hoping they are waiting patiently for FA's to start jumping on 1 year deals and they decide to splurge and swoop up a starter, another bullpen arm, and another OF. I know the penalty is stiff including lost draft picks but if they keep trying to catch lightning in a bottle and don't, this team could end up having some significant holes.
The other option is to trade one of our major leaguers and there are only 2 that make sense. Dyson and Panik could be replaced internally to clear room for one more impact OF. It may have to be both if they want to stay under and have any flexibility at the trade deadline. I wonder if Pittsburg would be interested in trading Harrison for Dyson and Panik. He could play 2B and be our 4th OF. He could lead off too. Hmmmmm......
CBT -- wait and see.
DeleteIf the G's can play .500+ ball to mid July, and the opportunity exists, blow up the CBT then.
If 2018 proves 2017 (and the 2nd half of 2016), blow up the team in July.
As always, terrific stuff.
ReplyDeleteDo YOU, Doc, believe the Giants, even with a "great" CFer (if they get one) really have a chance?
Doesn't just about everything have to work out better than the average that the players on the roster have ever done, some much better, some just average, but maybe do toilet jobs from the key guys?
Posey, McCutchen, Longoria, and Belt (BB: XXXX -- crossed fingers, both hands) could be a formidable middle LU, with contributions from Panik, Crawford, and Pence, and health from 12 or 13 pitchers, and the missing link in CF. (Milwaukee is going to have to give up someone, aren't they?)
Miracles do happen, lightning does actually strike the same place, you can fill an inside straight (helps not to need three cards, tho).
It will be interesting -- what do the Giants need to do by mid-July to be believable? .571 winning percentage (which happens to be winning 4 of 7, like taking a series!), projecting to 92-and-a-half wins? Or is less OK? How much less?
Right now, the Giants have 1 significant hole and are shaky in 2 other areas: 1. They need a CF who will give them plus D. I think they have done enough on offense that they can afford to punt offense from the CF position. Maybe Gorkys and/or Duggar can fill that need, but for a team obviously wanting to win now, they need more certainty than that. 2. They are depending on unproven talent for 2 rotation spots. That could work out great if 2 of the 4 kids do well, but more likely to end up with 1 or 2 huge holes and that's assuming 1-3 stay fully healthy. 3. To me, the bullpen is not close to postseason caliber.
DeleteHaving said all that, the guy on MLBTR's Chat today pointed out there are still a whole bunch of free agents out there. The Giants may not have the resources to sign any of them, but as other teams sign them, guys will get DFA'd and the Giants hold the #2 waiver pick for all of them, so maybe they find a diamond or two by dumpster diving.
One thing I think they need to do is try to trade Sam Dyson and his contract even if they have to send a prospect or two to make it happen to give them a bit more space under the "cap". Short of that, they might have to just bite the bullet and go over.
Dyson: He might get traded during the season too, if the bullpen shows some depth. It gives the FO the cap space for a patented mid-season vet pickup.
DeleteWaiver: That's what I was implying with the Brewers OF, they need to send trade some quality to fill out their rotation. SF doesn't have the players, but they could pick up some Plus-glove replacement level CFer that get waived somewhere.
But Dyson was essentially the closer at times last year, no?..
DeleteI guess if he's needed as the closer again this year... it won't really matter anyways as everything else would necessarily be bad enough to warrant selling him off regardless.
That said, I've always thought he's got enough value from showing out last year to find a new home via trade this year.
Gregor great Giant, and underrated player, as you say DocB.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't see him really challenging for a spot until one of the starters or prospects on the 40-man roster hits the 60-day DL. He's not on the 40-man roster is he?
Agreed about the bullpen not being postseason caliber. As of now from the left side, they'll have Will Smith, who's coming off of TJ, with Osich and Okert competing to be the 2nd lefty. It seems risky to me to go into the season like this and can't believe they haven't addressed this yet even with a minor deal or two. Understand dealing Dyson for further tax space, and would be good with getting a lefty reliever for him, otherwise wouldn't it weaken the bullpen further? I might be wrong, but I see Dyson as the top 8th inning setup reliever to Melancon since he has the most experience as a closer on their pitching staff other then Melancon. Wish they could sign a Tony Watson, but he's probably out of their price range.
ReplyDeleteLG