I am usually so excited by the #1 Giants prospect, I post his profile first and work down. I'm pretty darn excited about Heliot Ramos, more than any recent #1, but I'll try something different this year and start with the HM's and work up. How's that?
Chase Johnson, RHP. DOB: 1/9/1992. 6'3", 190 lbs. Drafted Round 3, 2013. AAA: 0-2, 4.35, 10.1 IP, 0 BB, 9 K's, GO/AO= 1.10. Johnson is a hard throwing former college closer who was a rising star in the Giants organization until 2016 when he started to develop arm problems and was moved to the pen, reportedly to try to preserve it. He started 2017 well enough, but went on the DL on April 23 and underwent TJ surgery in early May. The typical timetable would have Johnson back on the mound in games in May or June, but the Giants generally take it slow with TJ returnees.
Roberto Gomez, RHP. DOB: 8/3/1989. 6'5", 180 lbs. Minor League FA 2016. AAA: 3-9, 4.07, 971 IP, 38 BB, 89 K, GO/AO= 1.32. MLB: 0-0, 8.44, 5.1 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's. Gomez came up through the Rays system but last pitched for them in 2014. He was out of affiliated ball until the Giants signed him to a minor league FA contract. He came on strong late in the minor league season for Sacramento and was given a cup of coffee with the Giants that did not go as well. He's still on the 40 man roster. If he sticks there, he will likely start the season back in Sacramento waiting for another chance to come along as the season progresses.
Pierce Johnson, RHP. DOB: 5/10/1991. 6'3', 200 lbs. Drafted on Compensation A Round 2012(Cubs). AAA: 3-2, 4.31, 54.1 IP, 27 BB, 74 K, 9 Saves. MLB: 0-0, 0.00, 1.0 IP, 1 BB, 2 K's. Pierce Johnson has always had impressive K rates. Seems like I recall somewhere that he is a very hard thrower too. He was DFA'd by the Cubs late in 2017 and the Giants picked him off waivers. If he sticks on the 40 man roster, we'll likely see him in spring training where he is a sleeper candidate for a bullpen job. More likely he starts the season in Sacramento and vies for a midseason callup.
Matt Gage, LHP. DOB: 2/11/1993. 6'4", 240 lbs. Drafted Round 10, 2014. AA: 4-4, 2.88, 78.0 IP, 20 BB, 55 K, GO/AO= 1.36. AAA: 2-7, 5.75, 67.1 IP, 20 BB, 40 K, GO/AO= 1.07. Before you get too excited by Gage's AA numbers, it was his 3'rd season pitching there. Things did not go as smoothly after a promo to Sacramento. He's a contact pitcher with a modest GB rate, a combination that might work better in the majors than in the PCL. The challenge for Gage is convincing the Giants to trust him with a MLB opportunity.
Sam Coonrod, RHP. DOB: 9/22/1992. 6'2", 225 lbs. Drafted Round 5, 2014. AA: 4-11, 4.69, 103.2 IP, 42 BB, 94 K, GO/AO= 1.04. Coonrod is a hard thrower who puts a lot of effort into his delivery. That may have caught up with him late in the 2017 season when he went on the DL. I recall reading somewhere that he underwent TJ surgery, but now I cannot confirm that. If true, he will likely miss all of 2018, then try to mount a comeback in 2019. Many analysts saw him as a future reliever even before the injury.
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Coonrod did have Tommy John. As did Chase Johnson. In fact, here is a list of every Giant who has ever had TJ surgery, since Bill Bradley, including date and what level he had it:
ReplyDeleteSam Coonrod 9/6/2017 SF AA
Frankie Tostado 7/1/2017 SF Coll
Ian Gardeck 5/16/2017 SF A+
Chase Johnson 5/8/2017 SF AAA
Mac Marshall 5/1/2017 SF A-
Ryan Koziol 4/8/2017 SF A
Will Smith 3/28/2017 SF MLB
Justin Alleman 3/22/2017 SF Rk
Rayan Hernandez 2/1/2017 SF A-
Martin Agosta 6/1/2016 SF A+
Logan Webb 6/1/2016 SF A
Dylan Brooks 5/1/2016 SF Rk
Deiyerbert Bolivar 4/1/2016 SF Rk
Ian Gardeck 3/23/2016 SF A+
Cameron Avila-Leeper 9/16/2015 SF Coll
Nick Vander Tuig 6/24/2015 SF A+
Nick Sabo 3/14/2015 SF Rk
Derek Law 6/24/2014 SF AA
Mac Williamson 4/29/2014 SF A+
Matt Krook 4/22/2014 SF Coll
Jeff Burke 4/1/2014 SF Coll
Javier Herrera 1/1/2014 SF AAA
Shane Loux 6/12/2013 SF AAA
Hunter Strickland 5/25/2013 SF A+
Eric Surkamp 7/24/2012 SF MLB
Jarret Leverett 7/1/2012 SF Coll
Brian Wilson 4/19/2012 SF MLB
Jose Casilla 7/1/2011 SF A+
Matt Lujan 5/1/2011 SF Coll
Brett Bochy 4/1/2010 SF Coll
Gus Benusa 1/1/2010 SF Rk
Joe Biagini 1/1/2010 SF Coll
Josh Osich 1/1/2010 SF Coll
Todd Jennings 3/3/2009 SF AAA
Dan Otero 1/1/2009 SF AA
Nick Vander Tuig 1/1/2009 SF HS
Raymond Black 4/1/2008 SF Coll
Mark Minicozzi 1/1/2008 SF AA
Russ Ortiz 8/29/2007 SF MLB
Merkin Valdez 9/27/2006 SF AAA
Trey Lunsford 3/1/2006 SF AA
Jesse Foppert 9/16/2003 SF MLB
Brian Wilson 1/1/2003 SF Coll
Jason Christiansen 5/30/2002 SF MLB
Jack Taschner 2/28/2002 SF A+
Joe Roa 1/1/2000 SF MLB
Osvaldo Fernandez 5/7/1998 SF MLB
Scott Garrelts 7/18/1991 SF MLB
Bryan Hickerson 1/1/1988 SF AA
Bill Bordley 4/13/1981 SF MLB
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit#gid=0
That list is not one that makes you optimistic about the futures of Sam Coonrod and Chase Johnson.
DeleteIt's pretty brutal. And last year was exceptionally brutal with 9 guys getting Tommy John surgery.
DeleteIt's a not a terrible list considering only one in seven minor leaguers even have a cup of coffee in the majors and we are adding on a major medical issue.
ReplyDeleteBrian Wilson
Hunter Strickland
Osich
Garrelts
Roa
Smith...
Thing is, the injury really a prospects chances. First, only 87% recover in what is considered 'fully.' Only 33% recover 'fully' from a second surgery. Recovery time averages 15 months for pitchers and 6 months for position players. Further, players tend to regress in their skills due to the extended time off and how their arm is now working somewhat differently. A UCL on a player, basically, will set a player back one-to-two years.
DeleteOf those pitchers that recover, on average, their ERAs are 0.60 higher than prior. So while they 'recover' they're (as a population) just never quite as good.
So how many of those guys who never made it, might have? We'll never know. But missing that much time as a prospect.. And not living up to your previous potential... It's a big deal for those guys. And I'm sure some of them might have had a reasonable chance as some back-of-the-rotation or bullpen guy. But after the Tommy John... Maybe not so much.
Sounds like don't give up but don't expect nearly as much
DeleteIs a pitcher just beginning his professional career more likely to get TJS or a cup of coffee in the big leagues?
ReplyDelete(Count a pitcher who has had TJS before signing a professional contract as 1/1.)
Once a pitcher has had TJS, is he less likely than the general population (of pitching prospects) to get the cup of coffee?
TJS seems to be "surgery du jour" -- is it now fairly "ordinary"?
Are there complications?