Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Hot Stove Update: Jay Bruce Won't Be A Giant

Jay Bruce has agreed to a 3 year/$39 M contract with the Mets a team he played for last season before he was traded to the Indians.  I don't know what this means for the Mets and don't much care.  Unless all of their SP's come back fully healthy for a full season, they are not going to be a good team.  What I do want to comment on is at one point earlier in the offseason, Bruce and the Giants were rumored to be this close to a deal to bring him to AT&T Park.  I was not a big fan of signing Jay Bruce.  He could play LF in AT&T Park, but probably not RF and the endless ground in Triples Alley.  Almost all of Bruce's offensive value is in hitting HR's and as a LH batter, AT&T likely would have suppressed the dingers signficantly, rendering him a very poor fit indeed.

The Giants continue to need a RH masher and a plus defender for CF, preferably with some offense.  May Bruce is none of those, so we can wish him well with the Mets.

23 comments:

  1. Maybe the answer is Lorenzo Cain? Can they afford him without shedding some more salary? Who else is even interested in Cain?

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    1. I would not give up the draft picks and international bonus pool money for a too big, too long contract for Lorenzo Cain.

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  2. Doc, who do you want the giants to get? There aren't many options out there. Sabean don't want to give up draft picks to sign Lorenzo Cain (or so he said)...we will need to sell the Ramos+ to get Yelich. that really leaves us with McClutchen, Carlos Gonzalez and Jarrod Dyson....?

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    1. I think Cameron Maybin for CF or a platoon of Jarrod Dyson and Gorkys would get the job done out there for a nominal cost. For a corner, I would be OK with a McCutchen trade or a Carlos Gomez signing for one of the corners. Someone who can't quite cover CF or quite hit enough for a corner actually fits pretty nice in a corner in SF.

      It's not that I hate Jay Bruce at the price he signed for, but I don't think he can cover Triples Alley from RF and I think the dingers would go down playing in AT&T Park. Without the dingers, he's a pretty big liability.

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    2. I'd be OK with JD Martinez for LF if his price comes down into the Giants range. Martinez also could not cover RF in AT&T Park.

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    3. On the other hand, I might be the only person who would be OK with this, but I'd be perfectly happy if they ran Parker, Mac, Slater, Dugger, Gorkys and Pence out there in Spring Training and get their starting OF from whoever emerges from that mix.

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    4. the giants have options at the corners. when healthy, pence still is a .750-.800 ops guy. parker, williamson and slater should be serviceable and fill in for pence if gets hurt again. but i'm not ready to turn CF over to gorkys and duggar. i think duggar could use another half season. neither dyson or gorkys can hit LHP....and maybin didn't have a good 2017....i may rather see the giants go get calros gomez for the mlb rumor predicted 2 for $22 million or over pay $13 million with a buyout option year 2.

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    5. I agree entirely. Sure, there is some payroll available but use it to bolster the bullpen or bench or just hold it for a possible mid-season acquisition. I'd very much like to see what Slater can do in LF and whether Duggar's glove is sufficient to allow him to play everyday in CF at the MLB level while working on his bat.

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    6. IMHO, unless the 5-man IF returns and surpasses their days of glory), that OF won't delivers enough offense, and it's still a near-negative defense (OF) no matter how it's parsed.
      The 2017 infield (in 3B, 2B, SS, 1B, C order) delivered an approximately perfect 0-1-2-3-4 WAR.
      With Longoria, a complete Belt season, Panik at par all year, and a little more from Crawford and Posey, they might give 10 more wins, optimistically.
      Samardzija isn't giving any more (he's was at his norm in '17), Bumgarner and Cueto may give another 10 (wishful), 4 & 5 something above 0, and the RPs blowing 10 less, the Giants could win with that 0-sum outfield.
      But everything else has to go perfectly and the baseball gods be neutral on luck and injury.
      That's a lot to ask.
      I don't think Evans and Sabean believe they are done.

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    7. Nope. You are not the only one. If there is not a good solution now, it may be better to save the money for a mid-year trade, if the team is in good condition.

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    8. I like a McCutchen and Dyson combo if both can fit under the CB threshold.
      At the risk of chastisement, I think giving Beede for a full year of 31-year old McCutchen is a good bit better than the #1 pitcher prospect for 44 games of a 34-year old CFer turned RFer in 2011 without Buster. (The pitching was a whole lot better in 2011.)

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    9. I'm in on that in-house idea now too - why not include Shaw and Reynolds as candidates and find the hottest bats at Spring Training? And Roger is right - if you feel that you must spend $15M then spend it on some strikeouts from the bullpen. SF may find that they had the answers all along. Wouldn't hurt to pick up Dyson though.

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  3. Hello Doc, I read that Bruce signed else where tonight also, this is becoming an uninspiring off-season for the Giants. Not a big fan of Cuth, or Cargo. It looks like another long season by the bay.

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    1. I still see options out there that would make the Giants competitive.

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  4. Well, like you, I'm not disappointed we're not getting him. Honestly, I've been in full 'rebuild' + 'cost control' thought since the middle of last year even though it's possible we could bounce back to some kind of respectability.

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  5. McCutchen AT THE RIGHT PRICE is an excellent RFer plus he can back up CF just not as well as he could in his heyday.
    There probably needs to be some $$ adjustment which could come from including Sam Dyson in the trade or just not signing him -- can they still not offer arbitration or is that too late? Maybe tomorrow is the last day.
    McCutchen bats right and hopefully 2016 was an off year and he'll replay 2017 in a contract year. Then the Giants give him a QO and get a draft pick (maybe not a good one with the new rules if they go over the CB).
    I trust the Giants not to overcompensate although the temptation will be high. McCutchen in RF with a "cheap" even light hitting CFer who can cover the spacious AT&T would work -- as long as the rest of the Giants play up to their "averages" which they mostly didn't do last year. It would help if Belt comes back, too. And the pitching holds up at least 1-2-3 plus 4 & % beat last years which isn't a very high threshold.
    Lots of if's, next July will tell all: it worked or it didn't.
    The Giants NEED 3 hitters with a little pop, they could be Posey, Belt, and Pence but that would be better than hitting an inside straight. Get one more plus Longoria with an average year and some resurrection of the P-B-P trio and maybe the Giants get another half run per game, but they'll need a full run if 2017's pitchers come back.
    Giants are betting a lot on the comebacks.

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    1. semi platoon mccutchen and gorkys in center. gorkys plays center 2-3 times a week against RHP would be great.

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  6. How bad would it be to include Ramos in a Yelich trade? He's just about a perfect fit for the Giants needs and has 5 years of controlability which takes the Giants through the useful baseball lives of Posey, Belt, Crawford, Longoria, the BIG 3 pitchers, and maybe everyone else!
    He's not Stanton but he's a credible CFer, fast, some pop, and gets on base.
    But is the problem not just Ramos but what else Miami would want?

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  7. First, you are not the only person who thinks we should run with the kids. Slater had a good trial before he got hurt. Mac seems to be a slow start kind of guy so I think giving him a full spring might do the trick. I would be in favor of Pence + Duggar + ? in LF, with Gorkys and Parker as reserves. No issues for me.

    Second, McCutchen might be fine, but at the price the Pirates are asking, we just need to do what Nancy said "Just Say No". NO way should we give up anyone super good for that trade when we're paying for him. And even if we get money back, I still say it is a glorified rental. We do have a decent fill of iffy OFs in the minors (by that I mean Reynolds, etc, -- guys not named Duggar and Helios). I'd be ok on a one for one there. I'd even maybe give up Shaw as I see him blocked for Belt and we have other guys coming up at 1B. More than that, I just wouldn't do it.

    This year will be a cross roads for us. Either the pitching comes back, and we'll be ok regardless of our OF, or it won't, in which case it doesn't matter. Think we need to hold our power dry for now. If the pitching is sub par again, then we should go full on rebuild--trade Bumgarner, get a ton of prospect and if Belt is back, trade him too. Then you put Shaw at 1b and start rebuilding the staff. Pence and Spann will work themselves out in 1-2, and you get guys like Slater, Duggar, Reynolds, etc available as that happens.

    So no, not just you. Best, and Happy New Year.

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  8. John Heyman: Martinez is believed not only to be in search of six years, but at a premium rate of $30MM or more annually. To this point, the level of interest from teams is said to be “somewhere in the $120 million to $150 million range.”
    Martinez has so much more value in the AL than the NL. Reportedly, the Red Sox have dangled 6 years and 150 MM but they're thinking about 50+ balls over or against the Green Monster plus whatever he get on the road. (He's only played 7 games in Fenway but he has 10 singles in 25 ABs, maybe all off the wall, just not enough height! He also has 2 doubles in 2 additional ABs.)
    Two words explain why Martinez hasn't signed and won't sign this month: Scott Boras.

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  9. I don't usually buy into mlb.com/giants (does Chris Haft really know anything about the Giants?) but the lead articles tonight perked some interest:

    1. Distractions gone, Beede ready for big jump
    2. Bumgarner, Cueto rebounding in '18 key to staff
    3. Melancon's return is key to Giants' bullpen
    4. Power behind Posey could perk up SF in 2018
    5. How will Smith fit into Giants' bullpen

    Does that sound like a what if? Or 5?
    And he didn't even mention the substandard OF -- substandard both offensively and defensively!

    OK, Longo solidifies the infield so lets forget about that. Forget about Crawford's emotions, Belt's concussions, Panik's slow start, pressure on Posey to deliver.

    #1 question sort of answered, on Beede, but what about the other 4? What Beede does is of interest but only depending on #2 (and if he's still around).

    #'s 2-5 are unanswered and the OF isn't addressed at all.

    Who is worried that there are too many good things that have to happen and so many bad things (2017) that have to go away?

    I'm by nature an optimist but a skeptic, a lot of prayers need to be answered!

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  10. With the Mets signing Bruce, when Conforto returns Lagares (2 years, 15.5 MM) is the odd man out.
    Not sure the Giants have anyone to offer that they would part with and the Mets would want. Miguel Gomez or Hinojosa and a couple lottery picks?

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  11. time to focus on cameron maybin at this point. would be a good defender at center on a one-year contract.

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