The Yasmany Tomas watch is over. The D'Backs agreed to a deal of 6 years/$68 M with an opt out clause at 4 years. As you recall, Tomas is a Cuban OF with impressive power potential, but questionable just about everything else. I wrote about him in an earlier post after seeing some video of him hitting a couple of 'taters. I liked his swing. I also said we don't know much more about him and we would have to trust the Giants scouts on him.
This is my current take: 6 years/$68 M is a lot lower than some of the earlier predictions about his price which in some cases was over $100 M. Several big money teams who seemed to be interested backed off late, reportedly due to concerns about conditioning and weight. He also struggled against good college pitching in an international tournament. The Giants reportedly had 4 separate workouts with him and had personal connections to his agent, Jay Alou. Given that Pablo signed with Boston, the Giants certainly had the resources to top the D'Backs price if they really wanted him. I have to believe that the Giants talent evaluators just were not that impressed and they basically passed on him.
After the Hellickson trade, I have to say I am less than impressed with Dave Stewart's talent evaluation skills so I do not necessarily think this is a good deal for the D'Backs. As for the Giants, we know they also have looked at Yoan Moncada and may have decided to use the Tomas resources on him. Or, they may be more serious about a Jon Lester signing than we think. In the end, if they let Tomas go for this price, I have to believe they were less than impressed by what they saw and I am willing to trust their judgement.
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That's quite a bit less money than I was expecting as well. Maybe MLB isn't buying into his hype? Doesn't sounds like many teams were even in on him. All I know is, if he becomes an impact player, that's going to be another bargain contract. I hope the Giants didn't miss out on another great opportunity here.
ReplyDeleteCove Chatter
I don't know what to think. I'm bummed a bit. We'll see on Moncada, that's the prize, IMO.
ReplyDeleteBefore 2014, Sabean said "the window is now closed." He also said, "bless their hearts, these guys are not ready" regarding Susac, Panik, and Duffy. He believed in Strickland for high-leverage situations during the playoffs, after directly coming off TJS rehab. Same guy that found amazing guys like Burrell, Ross, Casilla, Blanco, and Petit for us also got Francoeur, O Cabrera, Tejada, Hall, and Uggla.
He's been known to "kick tires" and "the asks were too high, I wasn't going to make a bad trade." So, yet again we conveniently place 2nd or 3rd in bidding. Which amounts to nothing. But might appease some fans, who "believe" we tried our best to get this guy. Yeah, like we went to the end to keep Sandoval. L-O-L. Like the song says, "Don't Believe The Hype."
I like the upside on Tomas' projection. A LOT. 30+ 2B and 25+ HR, even if he hits .250 avg/.310 obp with only 40 BB to 140 SO in 500 AB. That's a guy that would closely match the overall value of Pence, Cespedes, Eaton, Melky, Kemp, Votto, or LaRoche for the 2014 season. Big spenders as the Giants are in overall payroll? Should be able to eat that 12M AAV if it fails. Didn't cost a pick. Doesn't cost prospects.
Gotta take some sort of risk to get the massive rewards. My bet goes on prime years every time.
Hellickson is a different deal, though. Fly ball pitcher in Arizona? Just look at his HR/9. LOL. This guy admitted to pitching injured to raise his arb value. I didn't want him. Might be great entertainment to follow. I don't think Yasmany's deal should've been cost-prohibitive to us. Power is very hard to find these days. 12M AAV. Prime years, short-ish six year contract w/ opt-out. Dang. Cheers.
The Giants did enough tire kicking on Tomas and the price ended up low enough that I have to believe the Giants were just not that impressed. Covechatter posted a tweet from Dave Flemming that said every time he asked Giants management about Tomas they said they liked him, but then would give mixed signals. One rap was that he struggled against good pitching in small samples.
DeleteI think it is very possible that when they took the complete player into account including his weight and conditioning issues, his defense and pitch recognition issues, they just weren't that impressed.
I guess I'm starting to feel very confused about the Giants' intentions with these Cuban players. Everyone raves about how serious they are, yet they always come up second. Part of me thinks they weren't that impressed with Tomas, and yet they reportedly were higher on him than 28 other teams. I'm not criticizing the organization here, but something just isn't adding up.
DeleteI agree, if they weren't all that impressed, why bid on him at all? My current theory is they liked some things about him and were willing to spend a certain amount, but were not impressed enough to put in an offer they knew would blow all other teams out of the water.
DeleteI really thought I liked Tomas as well but I think you guys are right, the Giants just didn't see it. He does have a lot of uppercut to his swing and all we really got to see of him was a few highlights of him crushing "cookies". His defense must have looked pretty bad and his conditioning must have given them visions of the bad Pablo. This also makes me wonder about a couple of other things, maybe this means we are serious about Lester and maybe the Giants think Carbonell is pretty close.
ReplyDeleteCould be more than his defense.
DeleteI mean, can't he get DH money bigger than this contract in the other league?
A number of teams were rumored to be in on Tomas. After working out for a bunch of teams he ended up getting substantially less than what was expected. So it was not just the Giants who passed on him. That must be telling. That he was signed by a rookie GM who is probably looking to make a splash seems telling also.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely. The cheaper he got, the more tempting he would have been to a greater number of teams. But no one wanted Tomas even at a 30% discount from the buoyant predictions being made, except for a team desperate because of weak play, multiple injuries, and the bad luck of playing in the same Division as MLB's leading Moneybags and MLB's World Champion. Why single out Sabean, who created those World Champions, when his judgment was shared by almost everyone else? Why bring up some trial-and-error hirings--O Cabrera, Uggla, Francoeur--made in difficult times, to allege something about a long-term hire at a non-exigent Giants high point four months before the season begins?
DeleteCan't fault Dave Stewart's evaluation. I think it's the same problem that the Giants had some years ago where free agents don't want to play for Dbacks or Padres for that matter. You get stuck overpaying for non players like Rowand. I look for Giants to re-sign Morse and put him at 1B and for Belt to be put in a trade. Carbonell has no bat. Giants looking for a SP and LF. 3B will be Moncada in 2016
ReplyDeleteI did not say anything about Stewart's evaluation of Tomas other than to point to the Hellickson trade. IMO, that trade does raise serious questions about his talent evaluation. Maybe he will be prove right in the long run and I will be wrong, but right here, right now, it looked like a very poor decision.
DeleteIt's being reported Giants were runners up for Tomas, so they must have wanted him more than most teams.
ReplyDeleteWasn't Tomas the one with questionable fielding skills at 3b, anyway?
I guess Sabes is just resolved to slapping a Panda hat on Hector.
If we get Moncado then okay, but also throw Tanaka in that mix. From a fan's perspective I'd love to see those type of signing. We don't know how the bidding went so it's unfair to judge. Plus y'all know Sabes loves CF. Think if Tomas can only play LF/DH and he's a TTO hitter, is that worth 68$. Remember we just missed on Abreu which would have gasp.. moved Belt to LF! So we know that if a FAR superior bat comes into play we're going be in. Tomas to me wasn't that guy. Now I'm thinking that if we were gonna spend on Lester, why not Tanaka? Unless of course, the Giants saw a flaw in his delivery. As much as we drool over bats, we KNOW SP is how we can win most effectively. So if we don't get no Cubans im gonna be pissed about the Asian man we missed out on. (No disrespect to anybody)
ReplyDeleteIsn't Tanaka's UCL hanging by a thread? Japanese pitchers have been good when healthy, but they have had trouble staying healthy once they start pitching in MLB.
DeleteTanaka cost $175M, including $20M posting fee, for seven years, so a team that outbid the Yankees would be paying, what? $10M, $15M, more than that. So far he has pitched three months' worth of baseball for the Yankees, ending in early July. I would be pretty worried if I were a fan of a team who had invested anything distantly approaching that much money in a player who proved so fragile so quickly.
DeleteI have to say, in the wake of disappointment about Tomas' poor showing before the Giants' and other scouts, that I feel wary about the oohing and aahing over Moncada. I don't know how much of the collective ecstasy is justified and how much is pure hot air, or pure flammable hydrogen. I very much doubt that the vast majority of the oohers and aahers know more than I do about it.
Yeah but we know he's injured now. If we sign him before the season MAYBE our pitching wizards fix his delivery. And did you see him pitch lol. Okay Cain hurt too, who you think can come back stronger? And say both fully recovered, I'd love to have both in 2016. You telling me you'd take Lester? I'd gamble on the upside. Moot point though, we got who we got (Lincecum $18 million). Say we gave Tanaka, 18$million plus the money earmarked for Panda, I'd love our team coming into 2015.
DeleteAndre? Who the hell is this Tanaka you are talking about? Do you mean Kenta Maeda? Tanaka was signed by the Yankees last year and is not available.
DeleteAs for Maeda, do we know he is being posted yet? I mean sure, kick the tires on Maeda. The Giants are, in fact, rumored to be interested, but only for a decent price. If the bidding goes anywhere close to what the Yankees paid, no thank you!