Thursday, November 27, 2014

Thoughts on Yoan Moncada

With the signing of Yasmany Tomas yesterday, the international buzz shifts to Yoan Moncada, an name that had been siphoning away some of the exuberance surrounding Tomas for awhile.  In fact, if you are still scratching your head over why Tomas deal was lower priced than had been predicted by many, Moncada may well be part of the reason.  Moncada's situation is a bit different in that he is just 19 years old.  His age and experience makes him an international amateur FA according to MLB rules as opposed to a MLB free agent.  More on that later.

Yoan Moncada is a middle infielder who has played both SS and 2B in Cuba.  He has a compact build at 6'1", 210 lbs.  He is a fast-twitch athlete who Kiley McDaniel reports has "plus-plus speed" and at least moderate power from both sides of the plate.  There is a highlight video out on the internet that mostly shows him diving for balls at both 2B and SS with a few batting sequences.  In one sequence, it does look like he gets down the 1B line in just over 4.00 secs.  His numbers at all levels in Cuba are very good.  Levels of play in Cuba are a bit confusing, but it appears that he has played 2 seasons at their MLB equivalent level with decent numbers i.e. .260 BA with high walk rates and approximately .450 SLG%.  As of the last report I could find, he had yet to be seen by many MLB international scouts, but has subsequently had workouts witnessed by scouts reportedly including Giants representatives.  It is generally agreed that if he was a draft prospect, he would easily be top 5 and probably be #1 overall.  He might need up to 1-2 years in the minors, but his level of experience in Cuba would suggest he would probably be almost immediately capable of playing at the MLB level.

From the videos I saw, he certainly looks both athletic, fast as heck and strong.  Although his body has been compared to Yasiel Puig's, he does not look as tall a Puig and his body not nearly as brawny.  I think he looks a bit thick in the middle for a 19 year old and would be mildly concerned that his body not only does not have physical projection but may actually have negative projection.  In other words, if he fills out any more, he will be overweight!  The other thing is you really can't tell about his defense from the videos as we all know that there is a lot more to defense than diving stops.  Diving stops in one game might be "past a diving Moncada" in another!  I'm not saying his D is not good.  Just that you cannot tell from the video highlights that are available.  The fact that he has already played 2B and that some scouts think SS may be the one position he cannot play adds to the caution here.  If he can't play SS, it would seem that both 2B and 3B waste his speed tool in terms of defensive value and he may be best used as an OF, not that there is anything wrong with that.

Now we get to the complicated part.  If Moncada were a MLB free agent, the bidding to sign him would probably go at least as high as Abreu, Tomas and Castillo and probably higher.  I'm thinking somewhere in the $80-100 M range.  The problem is that under international bonus pool rules,  all money has to go toward the signing bonus which has to be paid off within 12 months as opposed to a MLB contract in which the total amount can be spread out over 5 or more years. In most cases it has been over 6 years.  In Moncada's case, since he is so young, it could be extended for 10 years or more.  In addition to requiring everything to be paid upfront in a bonus payment, there is a 100% penalty paid to MLB for every dollar over the signing team's bonus pool, plus the signing team would then be only able to sign international prospects for $300 K or less for the next two years.  So, a signing bonus of, say, $30 M would actually cost $60 M!  Current estimates by most analysts are that Moncada will get a bonus in the range of $30-50 M for a total cost of $60-100 M which would all have to be paid within 12 months.  Obviously, not every team in MLB is going to be able, let alone willing, to make that kind of lump-sum payment.

The next problem with the Moncada situation is nobody knows exactly when he will become available.  He has been declared a FA by MLB, but still has to go through government clearance to come to the U.S. which can take variable lengths of time.  This makes it extremely difficult for teams to budget the kind of money that will be required to sign him.  For instance, if the Giants decided he was their guy, they might sit out the FA period going only for dumpster dive types in order to save up money to sign Moncada.  The problem is, that could come before spring training or after July 2, and there is no guarantee they would be the team that ended up signing him anyway, which would leave them with nothing to show for this offseason and a whole bunch of unspent money!

In summary, while Moncada looks like an exciting prospect, possibly the best in several years, I would be cautious about getting too irrationally exuberant about him for the following reasons:

1.  He may not grade out as high with professional scouts as with guys who write for websites.  We've already seen some of that with Tomas.

2.  The Giants have always adhered strictly to a yearly budget.  If a player gets too expensive for the current season's budget they will either pass or backload the contract to make the short term budget work.  They do not have that flexibility with Moncada.

3.  Sabean likes to wrap up his offseason business as soon as possible, so it is unlikely that he would want to hold back available money from the offseason for a future payment to Moncada, especially when there is no guarantee that Moncada would sign with the Giants at all!

It is likely that the only way Moncada wears a Giants uniform is if the baseball people are so blown away with him that they go to ownership and beg for them to break out the Greg Maddux/Rainy Day Fund money, or perhaps even borrow from future savings on the ballpark mortgage to sign him.  Maybe Yoan Moncada is worth all that.  Based on the small video snippets I've seen, I have to say I am skeptical.

24 comments:

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    1. Happy Thanksgiving to you too, DrB.

      We are thankful for the 3rd ring in five years. Thank you, Giants.

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  2. Happy Holidays and the Giants have a rainy day fund exactly for this reason. They will sign Moncada. I guess it's a good time to say I'm very thankful of your blog DR.B! Thanks for keeping us faithful informed. I don't think anybody who reads your blog takes you for granted. Again, thanks!

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    1. Thanks Justin. I appreciate you reading and commenting.

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  3. Happy holidays from Canada Doc!
    Richard in Winnipeg.
    P.s I want Max S signed.

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    1. I slightly prefer Lester to Scherzer mostly because Lester won't cost a draft pick, but OK, pretty unlikely that a #20 draft pick would turn out better than Scherzer over the life of his contract.

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    2. Happy Belated Thanksgiving to you all! Let's Go Giants!

      NWGiantsFan
      DtF!!!

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    3. Hello Richard, bring on Mad Max! get the K signs ready to be hung from the arcade. If you thought Scherzer was great in the AL, wait until he comes over to the "punch and judy" NL.

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    4. I saw a stat the other day showing Max Scherzer has thrown 6000 less MLB pitches than Lester and they are the same age. A lot less wear and tear on that arm. I would be excited over either player but Max possibly could be more durable over a long term contract. There are plenty of other factors for durability and velocity but throwing that many of fewer pitches couldnt hurt. Just my take.

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    5. Boras is peddling the low mileage theory, but Jeff Zimmermann of MLBTR pretty much debunked it as the evidence does not confirm that lower career pitch counts confer more durability going forward. In fact, there may be a slight trend in the opposite direction!

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  4. Dang Doc, you made signing Moncada sound difficult and burst some bubbles. Maybe it's the Yankees who make the irrational splash - wouldn't be the first time.

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    1. Just calling 'em like I see 'em.

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    2. And just when you thought you could focus on Yoan Moncada, another Cuban Yoan shows up. Yoan Lopez is a 21 year old RHP, 6'4", 190 lbs. who has touched triple digits. He is also a FA who must get government clearance to play in the U.S. He will be subject to the same signing rules as Moncada.

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    3. seems a lot easier to find arms that that bring that kind of gas than to find a talent capable of manning the hot corner with all kinds of upside.

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  5. I have to add here that when I started writing this post, I had every intention of saying that the Giants should put all their chips in on Moncada and dumpster dive the rest of the offseason, but after doing the research, I found out it's not quite that simple.

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  6. Dr. B, Any reason I would not be able to relpy on this blog using my iPad? Has anyone else had trouble posting from an iPad?

    Just wanted to share some thoughts on the offseason. I would love to sign both Cubans named Yoan. A player who has that kind of speed in Moncada would be a great attribute for our lineup and could be a fixture at 3b for many years . Lopez would be a fun project and exciting arm to try and tame. I think he sounds like Chapman and I hope that Rags and the Giants would try and keep him in the rotation to max out his potential.

    The penalty of not being able to sign any player over 300K next year would not be that big of a deal for me, because I think that Giants have done a great job in finding cheaper finds in the caribbean over the past few years.

    Go get 'em Giants

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    1. Have no idea about the iPad thing. I am extremely tech ignorant. My family bought me an iPad so I could work on the blog when on vacation, etc. I had some success using it for that purpose but finally pretty much gave up. I find those things extremely cranky and difficult to use.

      The biggest barrier, by far, to signing Moncada and/or Lopez is not the limitation on future signings. The Giants sometimes go for 2 years without any international signings above $500 K. The problem is going to be the amount of upfront money they would have to pay. $70 M that has to be paid within 12 months is a whole lot different than $70 M that is spread out over 5 or 6 seasons.

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    2. I always post with my iPad. I'm more likely to lose what I've written, and to be unable to leave an unpublished post to go look up stats, for example, than I am with my desktop. But the iPad can go where my family happens to be, and the desktop is a somewhat distanced monolith.

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  7. If it were possible for a team to buy the no. 1 draft position for fifty million dollars, with permission then to give the draftee a ten million dollar signing bonus, I find it hard to imagine that for me this would seem like a great bargain. This is true for any #1 draft pick I can think of in recent years, including Strasburg and Harper, whom I think of as the most drooled over. Yet other people seem to differ from me when the equivalent comes up in Moncada, who would in addition come with the signing restriction on other internationals, the distortion in offseason trading that DrB mentions, and still another caveat.

    That is, with American players teams can find out a lot about a prospect's character, work ethic, flexibility, willingness to take instruction, and behavior as a team member. With an international player, especially from a country with whose baseball personnel Americans are less likely to have a lot of collegial contact, I would imagine that accurate information would be a lot harder to come by.

    In light of the cost and the probable areas of ignorance, I'm skeptical about the enthusiasm for breaking the bank for Moncada, especially among fans who have never seen him play.

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    1. Great points, Mr. C.

      It is very possible that this 30 million dollar figure is grossly inflated. Tomas didn't come that close to 100. Surely other teams are also able to do the math and to likewise gasp at the prospect of ceding 60 million dollars for one player in one year.

      What if the real best estimate of a signing bonus is closer to 10 million? The posting fee for Japan seems like a formidable barrier at 20 million. Maybe teams like the Yankees and other teams that may have some payroll to burn would be willing to go 30 and no higher for the one year outlay. It's hard to image the Giants committing more than 30 million to one player in 2015. Scherzer may come close to that as well.

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    2. One big difference between Moncada's situation and the posting system for Japanese players is that once you win the posting fee, you 1. Have exclusive bargaining rights with that player which helps keep the total cost under control and 2. You can offer a MLB contract and spread the contract out over several years. In Moncada's case, you are bidding in a blind auction with other teams throughout the process and you have to pay the entire contract plus penalty within 12 months.

      It is probably true that the Giants could spread that cost out over several years through internal bookkeeping. I am sure that is how some teams do it. I am not sure that is how the Giants do business. Again, they have historically adhered quite tenaciously to yearly budgets.

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    3. Because they adhere to the budget so tenaciously, they'll probably come in 2nd or 3rd in the Moncada sweepstakes to a team that adheres less tenaciously, or more irresponsibly.

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    4. Yes, and may be better off that way, just as I'm guessing they're better off having the much-touted, but at last heavily discounted Tomas on someone else's payroll.

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    5. I believe that if the baseball people went to ownership and told them Moncada was a guy they had to have, ownership would find a way to get it done. That's a pretty high threshold though. While I think Moncada is an exciting prospect, I am not at all sure he is a guy you go to ownership for and tell them they need to break out the RDF or borrow from future budgets for.

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