Thoughts on Yoan Moncada

With the signing of Yasmany Tomas yesterday, the international buzz shifts to Yoan Moncada, an name that had been siphoning away some of the exuberance surrounding Tomas for awhile.  In fact, if you are still scratching your head over why Tomas deal was lower priced than had been predicted by many, Moncada may well be part of the reason.  Moncada's situation is a bit different in that he is just 19 years old.  His age and experience makes him an international amateur FA according to MLB rules as opposed to a MLB free agent.  More on that later.

Yoan Moncada is a middle infielder who has played both SS and 2B in Cuba.  He has a compact build at 6'1", 210 lbs.  He is a fast-twitch athlete who Kiley McDaniel reports has "plus-plus speed" and at least moderate power from both sides of the plate.  There is a highlight video out on the internet that mostly shows him diving for balls at both 2B and SS with a few batting sequences.  In one sequence, it does look like he gets down the 1B line in just over 4.00 secs.  His numbers at all levels in Cuba are very good.  Levels of play in Cuba are a bit confusing, but it appears that he has played 2 seasons at their MLB equivalent level with decent numbers i.e. .260 BA with high walk rates and approximately .450 SLG%.  As of the last report I could find, he had yet to be seen by many MLB international scouts, but has subsequently had workouts witnessed by scouts reportedly including Giants representatives.  It is generally agreed that if he was a draft prospect, he would easily be top 5 and probably be #1 overall.  He might need up to 1-2 years in the minors, but his level of experience in Cuba would suggest he would probably be almost immediately capable of playing at the MLB level.

From the videos I saw, he certainly looks both athletic, fast as heck and strong.  Although his body has been compared to Yasiel Puig's, he does not look as tall a Puig and his body not nearly as brawny.  I think he looks a bit thick in the middle for a 19 year old and would be mildly concerned that his body not only does not have physical projection but may actually have negative projection.  In other words, if he fills out any more, he will be overweight!  The other thing is you really can't tell about his defense from the videos as we all know that there is a lot more to defense than diving stops.  Diving stops in one game might be "past a diving Moncada" in another!  I'm not saying his D is not good.  Just that you cannot tell from the video highlights that are available.  The fact that he has already played 2B and that some scouts think SS may be the one position he cannot play adds to the caution here.  If he can't play SS, it would seem that both 2B and 3B waste his speed tool in terms of defensive value and he may be best used as an OF, not that there is anything wrong with that.

Now we get to the complicated part.  If Moncada were a MLB free agent, the bidding to sign him would probably go at least as high as Abreu, Tomas and Castillo and probably higher.  I'm thinking somewhere in the $80-100 M range.  The problem is that under international bonus pool rules,  all money has to go toward the signing bonus which has to be paid off within 12 months as opposed to a MLB contract in which the total amount can be spread out over 5 or more years. In most cases it has been over 6 years.  In Moncada's case, since he is so young, it could be extended for 10 years or more.  In addition to requiring everything to be paid upfront in a bonus payment, there is a 100% penalty paid to MLB for every dollar over the signing team's bonus pool, plus the signing team would then be only able to sign international prospects for $300 K or less for the next two years.  So, a signing bonus of, say, $30 M would actually cost $60 M!  Current estimates by most analysts are that Moncada will get a bonus in the range of $30-50 M for a total cost of $60-100 M which would all have to be paid within 12 months.  Obviously, not every team in MLB is going to be able, let alone willing, to make that kind of lump-sum payment.

The next problem with the Moncada situation is nobody knows exactly when he will become available.  He has been declared a FA by MLB, but still has to go through government clearance to come to the U.S. which can take variable lengths of time.  This makes it extremely difficult for teams to budget the kind of money that will be required to sign him.  For instance, if the Giants decided he was their guy, they might sit out the FA period going only for dumpster dive types in order to save up money to sign Moncada.  The problem is, that could come before spring training or after July 2, and there is no guarantee they would be the team that ended up signing him anyway, which would leave them with nothing to show for this offseason and a whole bunch of unspent money!

In summary, while Moncada looks like an exciting prospect, possibly the best in several years, I would be cautious about getting too irrationally exuberant about him for the following reasons:

1.  He may not grade out as high with professional scouts as with guys who write for websites.  We've already seen some of that with Tomas.

2.  The Giants have always adhered strictly to a yearly budget.  If a player gets too expensive for the current season's budget they will either pass or backload the contract to make the short term budget work.  They do not have that flexibility with Moncada.

3.  Sabean likes to wrap up his offseason business as soon as possible, so it is unlikely that he would want to hold back available money from the offseason for a future payment to Moncada, especially when there is no guarantee that Moncada would sign with the Giants at all!

It is likely that the only way Moncada wears a Giants uniform is if the baseball people are so blown away with him that they go to ownership and beg for them to break out the Greg Maddux/Rainy Day Fund money, or perhaps even borrow from future savings on the ballpark mortgage to sign him.  Maybe Yoan Moncada is worth all that.  Based on the small video snippets I've seen, I have to say I am skeptical.