Whoa! Yet another surprising and baffling move by Billy Beane! The Oakland A's traded 3B Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for 3B Brett Lawrie plus 3 minor leaguers, RHP Kendall Graveman, RHP Sean Nolin and SS Franklin Barreto. Donaldson has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past 2 seasons. He is first year arbitration eligible as a "Super 2" so has 4 years of team control on his contract. Although he will get expensive in arbitration, he is projected to make just around $5 M in 2015 and if he continues to produce as he has, would likely out earn his salary during that time.
Brett Lawrie is also first year arbitration eligible, but only has 3 years of team control. Although he has been a highly touted prospect, he has not come close to Donaldson's performance over the past 2 seasons. While he could break out like Donaldson did, it seems unlikely that he will approach Donaldson's lofty achievements. I think you have to mark this down as a clear downgrade of starting 3B for the A's.
What makes it possibly a good deal for the future is the acquisition of 3 reasonably talented prospects who appear to be likely to contribute in the future, although probably at least 2-3 years down the road for the shortstop, Barreto, who clearly has the highest ceiling of the 3.
Now, if Billy Beane is blowing up the team he built over the last 3 seasons and is going for a future "window" a few years down the road, then he got good overall value for Donaldson, both quality and quantity. But, if that is the case, then why on Earth did he sign Billy Butler as a free agent?
You have to think that Jeff Samardzija is going to be traded very soon as well and Brandon Moss has publicly wondered if his days with Oakland may be numbered.
Can't wait to see how the Fangraphs boys evaluate this one!
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This is probably the weirdest offseason for the Giants I have seen in a while. I think the writing is on the wall that Pablo wanted out. Hearing we offered a contract around Spring Training that could have been $91MM. Got outbid on another Cuban with potential. I know that people are saying the Giants' interest wasn't as much as hyped. Then why were they the runner up? Would have thought they wouldnt have bid at all if we werent interested. Instead we lose out to someone in our own division. Then a top 3B gets traded from across the bay. Now, I don't know about these propects the A's received but Crick, Duffy and Susac might get their attention. I think a top hitter with 4 years of control is worth losing those 3 players. I think we should be more aggressive but responsible. We are playing the waiting game and in the end I hope we end up with someone who is at least a 3-4 WAR player whether it is a front starter or a position player. To resign Peavy, get a stop gap at 3B and LF we will not be in very good shape unless Cain and Pagan come back in top form. Crossing my fingers and hoping for the best.
ReplyDeleteRemember it was those 3 prospects plus Bret Lawrie for Donaldson. The equivalent for the Giants would have been more like Crick, Duffy, Susac plus Brandon Belt and I'm not sure even that beats Toronto's price.
DeleteAs for Tomas, maybe the key is that he did go to a division rival and maybe the Giants were just making sure the D'Backs at least had to pay a reasonable price? For all we know, if the Giants had not been involved the Snakes could have gotten him for under $40 M!
I'm going with Crawford-Blackburn-Blach-Arroyo has an approximation to this deal. But your package might be close. It's all about who the A's scouts like and who Billy wants to deal with. He knows Toronto was in a win-now mode and could possibly be taken.
DeleteJust lost my post to the nether worlds of the internet (dang, I totally flamed you Anon - you been warned son). But I'll just say - the potential fan-base recoil of trading your spotlight player to the team that shares your market would have been a potential catastrophe for the A's, and Beane is clever enough to not want anything to do with that. However, my scenario was Beede, Okert, Blackburn, Horan, Crick and Susac - that's what it may have taken from our side in absence of any blue-chippers in the rig. And NO, I am not interested in that trade!
ReplyDeleteTomas has huge red flags everywhere you look - he's easily the top candidate for the first cuban hitter who falls flat in the new era. In the last few months of doing research, I ended up being honestly not interested at all, considering the spent resources would be lost towards other efforts.
And Pablo's departure is "writing on the wall"??? Give me a friggin' break guy. G'Lord..
Everything makes sense to me. Panda obviously wanted out if he signed a similar deal elsewhere. New challenge = not happy. You don't see Tom Brady trying to leave a winning franchise for a team in the bottom 10.
DeleteI don't know if that package was enough but Lawrie is all potential. He was a top rated prospect but hasnt done much. 1.7 WAR is not blowing anybodys skirts up. Probably could at least had a conversation. Blackburn would be more untradeable to me than Crick. Love that kid.
Not buying that Beane wouldn't trade Donaldson across the bay. Baseball is a business. You try to get the most value and leave fan emotions out of it. Maybe inside the division I understand but thats not the case. Question is whether a package we deemed fair would be enough.
Don't hate on posters. This is for discussion purposes. Youre not a GM and neither is anybody here. Show respect. You ever take a debate class? Thats fine if you dont like what someone says but show a counter argument and leave your emotions at the door. If you are rude and "flame" people people for starting a conversation and people will grow tired of this site. I don't think DrB wants that or anybody else. I dont agree with everything said here but I dont go around and try to insult them.
I think DrB is right. $91.5 million was a really good 2014 offer. Better than Pence's contract and avoiding the obvious risk of injury or a bad year that could have driven down his contract.
DeleteYet for all his 'Giant's Forever' talk, Sandoval couldn't wait to get out of San Francisco and sign, at a slightly lesser amount from what I've read, with the Redsox.
Why, who knows? I doubt we'll ever get an honest answer out of Sandoval, but I think his dirt-ball agents were part of the issue. I think TV time and endorsement money were part of it. I think his being able to pad his batting stats as Fenway is a hitter's park and it's especially favorable to hitters like him.
What a headline! "Beane throws in the towel".
ReplyDeleteThis move should not have come as a surprise to anybody who follows baseball. Of course he was going to sell high on somebody/ies this winter. Who's next?
Are the A's a lock to not make the playoffs? Probably not. But when you get past the knee jerk reaction and take a wait and see approach, it's not hard to see them fielding a competitive team that is within reach of one of the five spots.
Beane is Mr. Excitement. Making your cool winters warm by the stove.
Excitement is planting a tree and let it grow on its own, providing enough nourishment.
DeleteFor Beane, success must be all due to him and his genius moves, not chess-piece players nor not-that-important-head-baby-sitter-in-the-dugout.
Sabean is the opposite. Excitement for him and Giants fans is watching the other team make the last out of the World Series.
(Chemistry, that not-stat nuisance, takes time to develop, Mr. Billy Beane).
Im sorry but they had the best record in MLB last year. All these trades are dumb. He traded his best player, at a positional wasteland for junk. If I'm a A's fan, I call for Beane head.
ReplyDeleteBeane is dehumanizing the game, robbing the fans of any player identification, and reducing it all to his phantom Holy Grail, success in a World Series, all with his small market excuse.
DeleteThe game is bigger than that. It should be about both success on the filed and developing player-fan bond so fans can invest emotionally in players long term (look at the Giants).
He needs to take himself out of the equation and let natural boom-bust cycles do the work, ride the ascending wave like he did in the early 2000s' with home grown players, not this much-ado, while the Giants have collected 3, yes, count them, 3 rings in the meantime.
Trading Cespedes for Lester was not a smart move. Especially when they were winning. They were over .600 with him in the starting lineup. Plus he was controlled for another year where Lester was never going to be resigned. Then this move is ridiculous as well. His is a plus hitter and plus defender with 4 years of control left. Beane better know what he is doing.
ReplyDeleteThat's what makes it exciting! So long as you are not a diehard A's fan with a closet full of game jerseys, it's kind fun to see him shake the talent tree. Rumors of Samardjiza to White Sox for ???
DeleteIf the A's made a deep run into the playoffs and possibly winning it all because of Lester (see Bumgarner), then the deal would have looked pretty darn good. Ol' hindsight is valuable on this one.
Hindsight is all we have to go by when we take lessons from history or learn from mistakes.
DeleteThen, hindsight becomes foresight.
Beane appeals to our worst nature - the delusion we fans have that we are somehow responsible for our team's success, keeping the stove warm for the winter with all these fantasy league moves.
DeleteBut he is supposed to be a 'real world' general manager.
You look at Sabean. He's all about low key, teamwork, straight shooter (saying there were no internal options before negotiating or, unsophisticated, players are cockroaches) and, I was surprised, that he didn't have any side negotiation while talking with Pablo. He didn't sign another player, making a splash, right after losing out on Sandoval. I know some people get into another relationship right after breaking up an existing one...talk about fast workers. Sabean is the opposite of that. Beane reminds of that fast worker. Yeah, he thinks he's cool and smart Sabean is just dumb and slow. Beane is always full of 'moves.'
I don't know, BLSL. I don't agree with all of Billy Beane's moves and it irks me to no end that he can do no wrong in the eyes of many observers, but to make this into destroying the spiritual/moral fabric of baseball might be taking it a bit far. I mean, it seems to me that the morality ship sailed away from MLB a long time ago.
DeleteJust asking for a chance a kid is able to enjoy his hero-player a little longer (not as long as, like you say, a long time ago).
DeleteBLSL, I agree about the fans losing connections with the players. I love the fact that a lot of our players are homegrown and have that chemistry. I don't know if that is why the fans dont go to the A's games or if it is a economical factor. The A's have been relevant for years and the attendence is pathetic. Maybe it has to do with the lack of stars and when they become stars they get traded. Who knows?
DeleteMakes you appreciate Sabean even more with that long gone morality ship.
DeleteBy the way, to me, he didn't discover sabermetrics, but sabermetrics discovered him. His defense and ground ball must have around baseball for over a century. He's like that smart kid who is not very savvy. He says things like 'our players are cockroaches' and he treats players like humans, releasing them early in spring training so they can possibly latch on with another team, you know, little things like that. And he values managers. My god, you would have thought they are irrelevant according to Beane.
I agree with the part about Billy Beane not discovering sabermetrics. A long time before Billy Beane came on the scene, a famous manager named Earl Weaver highly valued infield and up-the-middle defense and famously said that winning baseball consists of great pitching and 3 run homers. If that isn't Moneyball in a nutshell, I don't know what would be.
DeleteSabean didn't let Beane be his world, but everything we have done successful just make Beane look bombastic.... our home grown players, commitment to your fans and players, chemistry, leadership in the clubhouse, manager, coaching staff, non-splashy trade deadline acquisitions, etc.
DeleteBeane thinks Lawrie can approximate Donaldson for half the contract and bring in a young SS prospect and a couple of pitching prospects and bam, money. I like Lawrie quite a bit and think his power will increase over the next couple of years, he just needs to stay healthy. Defensively it's closer than most think. Add in Upton for some pop in the OF and the power drop from losing Donaldson is made up. Shuffling the deck, that's Billy.
ReplyDeleteBut if Samardzija goes to get Upton and Kazmir goes too, then the pitching comes up short. He ends up robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak. It's just churning the roster while running in place.
Deletewill running in place constitute upper 80's to low 90's wins as you might expect following the trend of recent seasons?
DeleteI think I said in the title that Beane is throwing in the towel on 2015. The A's are about to get worse.
DeleteThis isn't anything new? This is what Beane does best. Look at his payroll! He almost has to look ahead and not be content with the now. His job isn't to make the fans happy! It's to win in a very tough division. Wait until every move is made before you judge this one deal(not you Dr. B, people giving opinions). The A's lost to the team who the Giant's beat in the World Series! Beane is realistic with his resources. He is a trader...mover and shaker. I like Beane because may be he does do too much sometimes. I rather have that then a GM who doesn't do enough. Dayton Moore ring a bell? Vogt was amazing last season! The platoons worked! Beane has balls, just wait and see what his vision is before we all judge him.
ReplyDeleteOh man! I do not agree with this take at all! While this deal has a small chance to turn out good in the long term, mostly if the SS turns out to be the real deal, there is no way it is not a negative in the short term. Make no mistake, Beane is throwing in the towel on the 2015 season right here, right now. I did not like the Billy Butler signing when it happened and it looks even worse now.
Delete