When evaluating pitchers, we often use a term called "stuff." What is "stuff" you say? I don't know if anyone has ever defined the term. It definitely has to do with quality of pitches. It is also more than simply velocity as pitch movement is also an important component of "stuff". One logical way of measuring "stuff" is by the ability of the pitcher to get batters out all by himself, without the aid of fielders. The obvious measure for this ability is strikeouts. Not all strikeouts are created equal though. Some pitchers are better at getting batters to not swing at pitches that the umpire calls strikes. Other pitchers are better at getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. A few pitchers are good at getting hitters to swing and miss at pitches within strike zone. Intuitively, a pitcher who can get batters to swing and miss at pitches within the strike zone might be working with better "stuff" than pitchers with lower rates of the same measure.
With the advent of PitchFx and electronic systems for calling balls and strikes, we can measure how many times a pitchers induces a swing and miss at pitches inside the strike zone. Thanks to David Laurilia who posted these numbers in his Sunday Fangraphs column. He credits Mark Simon of ESPN. Here are the Top 10 pitchers in MLB in order of their percentage swinging strikes within the strike zone last year:
1. Chris Sale- 23.2
2. Max Scherzer- 21.8
3. Marco Estrada- 21.7
4. RA Dickey- 21.1
5. YUSMEIRO PETIT- 20.5
6. Jacob DeGrom- 20.3
7. Collin McHugh- 20.0
8. Michael Wacha- 19.8
9. Cole Hamels- 19.7
10. Clayton Kershaw- 19.7.
Just saying…...
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Interesting post. Looks like our presumptive No. 3 SP has the STUFF! Hopefully Cain comes back country strong. Guess Timmah is SP No. 4 and VogelStrong may be back to compete for SP No. 5 or Petit's old spot.
ReplyDeleteNWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
Interesting, thanks.
DeleteDo they have career numbers as well?
I also think there may be difference between the percentage of swing-and-miss strike once and the percentage of swing-and-miss strikes thrice in a row (or various other combinations).
That is, a pitcher may be able to produce a swing-and-miss early in the count, but is not able to do it again to finish a batter off.
If Cain is able to resume his #2 role, I would think Huddy slots in at #4 and Vogey and Timmy battle it out for #5. The #5 battle would be interesting since whoever doesn't start will likely be the swing man. Timmy would seem to profile better in that role than Vogey given his past success, although Vogey is largely untested as a swing man so it remains to be seen how he would fare in that role. Some who comment on this site are in favor of the Giants adding an elite starter. If that happens it would guarantee a bullpen role for Timmy and maybe leave Vogey without a job. If we decide to keep Vogey, then maybe it is time to consider trying Timmy at closer. Casilla and Romo have had periods of success as the closer but neither has a stranglehold on that position. Strickland, Cordier, Okert, and the other prospects need more seasoning. It is something I would at least like the Giants to consider and try in spring training.
ReplyDeleteSoft tossing RHP's with poor command generally do not make good closers.
DeleteNO! Timmy gives up too many walks and HR. He also can't hold runners. Plus he's a soft tosser right now compared to other closers.
DeleteI personally would like to throw Fleet into that battle for No. 5. I think we dodged a bullet by only having one leftie during the playoffs and think we need to balance the rotation. Fleet's numbers seem pretty good. I would give him a shot and go with a rotation of MadBum, Cain, Petit, Fleet and Hudson, with Timmy out of the pen. I realize The Freak won't like that, but the FO has been patient enough with him IMHO.
ReplyDeleteFleet is a RHP.
DeleteFrom the reports I've read, it sounds like Fleet has the type of stuff that might get him an audition as a long-relief type. My guess is that if the Giants had any ideas of him as a starter candidate, they would have promoted him to the majors quite a while ago. They won't fill their 5th starter spot from the farm this spring, but if they were leaning that way, I'd say Blach had a better chance than Fleet. I could be totally wrong though!
Delete1 stud and 4 pasture horses...
ReplyDeleteCain - hope he makes it back to pre-perfect game stuff. He's been pitching with the floating bodies for 4+ years, so chip-free is he back? Either that or the Giants got another Zito on their hands. #2 starter with stuff, if healthy.
Hudson - last year his off-season conditioning was cut short due to injury recovery time. This year it will be due to the WS win. Either way, and a year older, Huddy figures to be a #3 when fresh and a #5 when gassed. Giants will need to preserve him (maybe a skipped start or two in August/Sept).
Petit - step up to the mound every 5th day brother - you've earned it. #2 stuff mainly at ATT, #4 when in CO or other bandbox park. I think Petit will be grande as he has stuff and is fearless to pound the plate with it.
Timmy - I know OGC thinks Daddy knows best and will fix Timmy. I doubt it. Timmy is at best a #4 and at worst a bullpen long man. Let's hope his ego can take the pounding.
Voggie - sign him, please. He was the Giants "cained" pitcher of 2014. But as the WS showed he does not have put-away stuff any more. He did start every game and eat innings and that's worth a lot from your #5 guy.
Bottom line, I also think it's wishful thinking that the four pasture horses will make through the season without breaking down. I don't see any MLB-ready farm help, so Sabes will go dumpster diving this Winter for another starter and long man or three.
Yeah, I'm not sure why anybody thinks there is anything fixable with Timmy. He's the same pitcher he's always been except with diminished velocity. The velocity did not drop off suddenly but has been steadily eroding since 2009 at least. I'm pretty sure the list of pitchers who have regained significant velocity after losing it steadily over many seasons is a number you can count of one had and still have fingers left over! For the same reason, I do not understand why people think Timmy would make a good closer.
DeleteLike Shark said, Cain has been pitching with loose bodies in his elbow for at least a few years. I read somewhere where he said he hasn't been able to fully extend his elbow for a few years. You would have to think that would decrease some velocity and control. As long as the articular cartilage in his elbow was not to beat up he should be fine and hopefully have an uptick in velocity.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if we can measure any of this "stuff." I am hoping that we get at least a solid #3 to bolster the starting rotation, because I don't know that we can rely on Huddy, Petit, Cain, and Lincecum/Vogey to all stay intact and productive. Heck, it is true that the team didn't get to 90 wins with that same rotation last year, which is patchwork and certainly didn't give many of us a whole lot of faith in getting past the Nats.
ReplyDeleteI am not complaining about the end result and it was yet again a miraculous season. But to say that the rotation doesn't need upgrading and we will just do fine with dumpster diving is a little light in my book.
Who said the rotation doesn't need upgrading? I agree that it does. I just think that Sabes is confident enough in his ability to find good pitching on the cheap that he is not about to spring for one of the elite pitching FA's. That's all!
DeleteProblem is anyone he is going to get on the "cheap" is going to have a question mark like the guys we already have. He is going to almost have to get another starter that is a "sure thing". Just look at the pitching around the league, without an upgrade of at least one more solid top tier guy, I am not sure we are even in the top half of rotations out there. I know we would be near the bottom in our own division.
ReplyDeleteWith pitchers, sure things are rare birds. Look at Lincecum, great till suddenly he wasn't, and Cain, ditto for reasons (we hope) of injury. The history of long-term contracts has been discouraging, and particularly so for pitchers. Sure things that may well not be at all sure, and top tier guys who have a foot, unbeknownst to anyone, on a banana peel--these guys will want and get long-term contracts. I'm hoping that the Giants stay clear of those.
DeleteYes, we need help in our rotation. I'm hoping that Masterson or McCarthy is a Giant before long, so that we can do Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, one of those M-pitchers, and Lincecum/Petit. And I'm not so sure that with the first three of those pitchers, plus even Peavy, we would be near the bottom in our own division.
Anon,
DeleteI hear what you are saying. I don't necessarily disagree with it. I'm just telling you what I think the reality of Sabean's thinking is. If he goes for a stud pitcher, I think it will be mid-season rather than the offseason.
I'm pretty optimistic about Cain coming in healthy and being a solid #2 starter. I also think Huddy will give us another decent season. You have to remember Hudson probably didn't get a fair amount of time to do solid work on his lower body last off season which would cause him to wear down over the course of a season. I think the guy that no one is talking about that may make a difference this season is Clayton Blackburn. A mid season call up could happen if he starts off strong. He has good control and a number of pitches, if he threw a little harder he would probably be our #1 prospect, I'm a little partial to Clayton as he comes from my area in Oklahoma and pitched against my son in HS so we have been following him for awhile.
ReplyDeleteI like Blackburn a lot too. Saw him pitch in Rancho Cucamonga in 2013. He did not do well that day, but the velocity was 91-93 on the FB which should be plenty if he has command and secondary stuff. His problem at the time was that his secondary stuff was limited to a slow rainbow curve and a slow changeup. I said at the time that he needed a mid-velocity breaking ball. I believe he told Conner Penfold that he was working on a cutter or slider in the AFL. The leaked tapes from the Astros camp seemed to indicate that Blackburn was a kid the Giants were willing to trade. I hope they keep him! I agree that he could help as early as mid-season this year.
DeleteI think,Doc B is right, we will probably be going into the start of the season with our guys and see how things go. If we are close in the West at mid season a deal can be made at the trade deadline to find a starter or we can hopefully bring up Blackburn or one of the other kids if they are tearing it up in the minors. Last season was a little disappointing for our pitching prospects but I think a few of them will bounce back and have everyone talking.
ReplyDeleteAgree that if Sabean goes after a stud pitcher, it will more likely be at mid-season than this offseason.
DeleteI am a big Clayton Blackburn fan as well. Great K/BB ratio! Only 1 HR in 93 innings. But one thing sticks out: his age. 2015 will be his age 22 season. He is very young. I think Austin Fleet will be given a shot before Blackburn unless injuries pile up or he wows in the first few months of AAA. I know they moved Bumgarner up very early but he was a first round draft pick and expected a ton from him. Clayton was a 16th round draft pick that they have plenty of time to mold into a great pitcher.
ReplyDeleteI think it depends on how they all perform in the first half of the season. Jake Dunning is another guy to not sleep on here.
DeleteRumor is Giants are looking at Lester. I am telling you they are going to sign a big name pitcher.
ReplyDeleteI think Lester is a much higher probability signing than people think because he doesn't have a QO attached.
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