After a ridiculous Kabuki dance of leaks, denials, more leaks, silence and more denials, Pablo Sandoval's agent finally confirmed late today that Pablo would be signing a contract with the Boston Red Sox. The contract is believed to be for 5 years/$100 M. The Giants kept insisting that they had not made their final offer. It either came up short or they were not given the opportunity. In the end, I am not sure how much the Giants really wanted to re-sign Pablo. If I had to guess, Pablo may have wondered that himself which may be a big part of the reason he chose Boston. In any event, while Pablo will be difficult to replace, I am also quite sure that a 5 year/$100 M contract is way too much for him and Boston will come to regret their irrational exuberance here.
If the Giants did not really want to sign Pablo or even if they were ambivalent about it, you have to wonder why they spend the better part of November apparently doing nothing but going through the motions. Was it just a facade to placate the fan base? They now face the daunting task of replacing Pablo as well as addressing other free agents from last year's team and holes to fill on the roster. Make no mistake, the task is daunting. We've had the discussion several times. The FA market is uninspiring to say the least. Sabes has already said there are no internal options. The trade market is limited. I expect the Giants will next make a final push to sign Yasmany Tomas. In fact, we may get to test my theory that the Giants already have a deal in place for Tomas pending Pablo's decision! If they are successful, they will try him at 3B as his agent, Jay Alou, and Jay's uncle Felipe have suggested. They may also make a play for Chase Headley. I don't know if there is any connection between Headley and Bruce Bochy from their Padres days. I think Headley broke in after Bochy left. If the Giants want Headley, they will have to outbid the Yankees for him. Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.
There was talk today that the Giants might go in a completely different direction and make a play for Jon Lester. They do need to upgrade their starting pitching. If they only have enough money under their self imposed salary cap to sign one big name, pitching is probably the most effective way to go. At least one of the Giants beat writers basically wrote off the Lester idea. I personally think Lester is looking more toward Atlanta or the East Coast. The BoSox are trying hard to get him back and seem to have unlimited money to spend and are not afraid to bust through the luxury tax threshold.
This is an opportunity for Sabes to get creative. It's been a long time since Sabes did much in the offseason besides methodically fill holes. Let's see him do something big and crazy here like figure out how to make a play for someone else's prized prospect or maybe an under-the-radar prospect he can get with the trade chips he has. I don't know what it might be, but that's why he's getting paid the big bucks. Personally I really like Garin Cecchini, the Red Sox 3B prospect who now has no place to play, or maybe Will Middlebrooks can still be salvaged?
In Part II, we will look at this from Boston's viewpoint.
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"a 5 year/4100 M contract is way too much for him..." Agreed. A 5 year/$100 M contract is probably way too much for him as well....typos...I get them all the time.
ReplyDeleteDaunting task indeed. I like your idea of getting one of the BoSox 3B prospects...or go with a homegrown option (Crawford?EA?Matt Duffy!?) and get yer WAR elsewhere (as many here have suggested).
Spend some of the $ on SP. I think Lester goes back to Fenway...or he comes to us or goes home to another pitcher friendly park up at Safeco. Why Atlanta? I hope he doesn't join LA or STL....
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
DtF!!!
I believe Lester has a home in Georgia, or something like that. He has been talking to the Braves.
DeleteBetter there than STL or LA. Thanks.
DeleteNWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
We won it all three times in the last years.
ReplyDeleteWe have a pitching friendly park.
We believe our management and coaching staff are respected.
Perhaps money is very important, but they also say you must be a winner to attract free agents. So, hopefully, we can sign a good pitcher.
It's amazing how we won those 3 championships - I mean, Uribe at 3B (taking Pablo's place) in 2010? Crawford replacing Renteria in 2012 at SS? Only one good (very good) starting pitcher in 2014?
Perhaps Sabean will find another Uribe...
In a way, this is better. The Giants begin to move on from the costumes, and Pablo gets to grow up a little, and make a run at a Hall of Fame career that probably wouldn't happen as a Giant.
ReplyDeletePablo looked like the second coming of Tony Gwynn in October but we have to remember how we spent a portion of the season relieved they never agreed on a new contract on an overpay. Once the Giants turned their parade into a sales pitch to sign him, it was over. The Giants don't court players publicly like that. The biggest loss is his defense, I think. Likewise, Pablo probably is going to realize the value of Belt at 1st to save an increasing amount of throws into the dirt.
Yeah. But what drives me nuts is that its based on such small samples. Players run hot-and-cold all the time. It's just the nature of baseball.
DeleteIn his 3 NLDS series, he's a .261 hitter with a .667 OPS.
In his 3 WS series, he's a .426 hitter with a 1.163 OPS.
Which is he? He's neither. What he is, is somewhere around what he's done over the past three years. During this time he's hovered at .280 and .750 OPS with a decline, from the previous year, each year. That's Sandoval. Not the WS. Not the NLDS. Not the playoffs. But the work he does, or fails to do, that puts the team in the playoff hunt over the course of the season.
As for his defense, I think most Giant fans over-rate his defense. Yes, he had once great year when he wasn't fat and out-of-shape. But that was a one-time season. From 2012 through 2014 his combined UZR is -0.5 an d his UZR/150 is -0.2. That's not great defense. That's, well, average (at best). And what I'd expect from someone with the ability who is otherwise hampering himself through his bad life and professional choices.
I be blunt -- I think Sandoval has the physical ability to be one of the greatest 3B of all times. Strong and accurate arm. Excellent quick-twitch and reactions. Excellent fielding skills. Yet I think it's clear that it's not going to happen because he can't push himself away from the dinner table. And that hurts him.
Headley, the FA I've been pimping since Sandoval didn't resign and the FA market became a known commodity is a true defenseman leading MLB 3B over the same period with a combined UZR of 35.2 and ajn UZR/150 of 12.8. That's Gold Glove defense. And Panda is not even close.
I agree that the postseason stat line for Sandoval is sample size driven. He's averaged 2.7 fWAR for the past 3 seasons, 2.8/600 PA. He may have another single season blip in him but I think that's who he is now and is likely to trend worse from here on out.
DeleteWhat I'm not sure of is that that the Giants can pry Headley away from the Yankees.
If you add post-season numbers to Pablo's lines from 2012 and 2014, the totals looks better. Bigger samples! I don't get why we draw a line so fervently between regular and post- season. It gives him 18 homeruns in 124 games in 2012, and a .289 AVG in 2014 - both of which are closer to how we see Panda overall.
DeleteI totally expect another batting title season, and a 25+ homerun season from Panda. Even more so, now he is in Fenway. But overall, I see why the Giants let him go. And one or two good season does not a good 5/6 year contract make. I'm reminded of the Bill Mueller to Red Sox. There'll be one season at least where we Giants fans sigh and watch Sandoval at the top of some batting tables or win a ring in Boston, but I don't think there will be much crying (or booing) for the departed home grown star.
I don't think the Giants go for Tomas at third because they value defense so much at that position. Maybe a Hedley, maybe a trade. I think a guy like Prado might be a good fit. They are going to spend some money getting probably an outfielder and a starter and then back fill with the rest. A good left fielder and a healthy Belt will go a long way to pick up production and then whomever they get at third just has to be serviceable with the bat, some power and a good glove.
ReplyDeletePrado would be a good fit. Is he available?
DeleteThere ya go, got to ask nice if player is available and rationale for becoming available.
DeleteHe's due 11 mil, and you have to figure he's the Yankees choice at 2B or 3B if no Headley.
I know sabes said tgere's no inhouse replacement, but I'd like to see them spend on one impact lf or sp, and go cheap patch at 3b.
ReplyDeleteBetween Duvall/Lisson/Dominguez/Minicozzi (in that order) someone should emerge. Then Arias as the vet, with Adrianza for D. Evaluate midseason if they need to make a trade.
At this point I see two major needs:
ReplyDelete1. New 3B --- minors (unlikely), trade (not my favorite option) or FA (Headley is my FA of choice).
2. Two pitchers. Right now we have four SPs under contract -- Bumgarner, Cain (presuming he does come back 100%), Hudson and Lincecum. And while I'm rooting for Lincecum to figure it out and become a decent-middle-rotation guy, I'm not terribly hopeful at this point in time.
Which means, in my book, there are only 3 starters I feel the Giants can rely on. So, I'd try to get Lester. But I'd also looking hard at Cueto as a fall-back option for one of the two 'upgrade' pitchers. Then, for the last slot I'd sniff around these guys: Peavy, Liriano, Vogolsong, McCarthy and Santana and maybe take a flyer on the AAA/AA SP has the best shot to hang in there at the #4/#5 position.
I would count Petit as a starter too. I like the Lester idea, especially since he does not cost a draft pick to sign. I just don't see the Giants offering Lester what it would take to come to SF and I see him as preferring other regions of the country. On the other hand, the park, the Giants track record with pitching and the 3 championships in 5 years has to be appealing.
DeleteThe Giants do have a strong contingent of pitchers from the South so that may appeal to Lester. Seemed like it help Peavy with the transition.
DeleteSmall point of clarification: Jon Lester is from the Tacoma, WA area. Maybe he likes a little sunshine with his rain...which he'll get in Hotlanta...
DeleteNWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
What would the BoSox want for Cecchini? Guy is a bit like the third base version of Joe Panik. He's probably a chip they use in a package for Cole Hamels. Wish the Giants matched up better.
ReplyDeleteMiddlebrooks on the other hand...
Just make a patchwork of 3B in 2015, but get this Moncada guy. There's nothing in pipeline at third, might as well.
Putting their money in Moncada is a very interesting idea. It blows up their international bonus pool for 2 years, but they can still sign international players for $300 K and less. The Giants often do not go much above $300 K for a single international signee in a year anyway.
DeleteIf no external happens; would love to see an experiment with Crawford at 3rd, uses Duffy/ Adrianza/ Arias role playing SS, back up 3rd and 2nd. I think Crawford would be a great defensive fit, His offensive numbers I believe are acceptable.
ReplyDeleteRichard in Winnipeg
I just don't see the Giants in on FA pitchers this year. They had a $150mil budget in 2014 and in 2015 they have $60 going to Cain, Lincecum, Hudson, Bumgarner and Petit (at $3mil estimated for arb.), and $15mil for Affeldt, Casilla, and Lopez. So $75mil or half the budget on pitchers as is. Add in other relievers and a $5mil type deal for a Vogelsong type pitchers and that is a big chunk of their budget already allocated.
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, while the pitching FA class is deep this year, next year promises to be even deeper, with the likes of Price, Hamels, Zimmermann leading the class then Cueto, Buerle, Porcello, Kennedy, etc. I expect some of the potential FA to do deals before they become available. Others will be traded a la Lester midseason, making them free of compensatory draft picks. The Giants (and all teams really) should keep a tab on this years FAs in case there is a deal/discount to be made, but I just can't see them "all in" this off-season with their current lineup, commitments, belief in their players, and the FAs for 2016.
The Giants have warm bodies to cover the 5 starter positions. Add in Vogelsong and they even have depth. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some retreads and dumpster dives invited to spring training and stored in AAA. Meanwhile, 3b and LF/4rth OF are glaring vacancies. I expect moves to fill those holes.
What ifs....? Jonathan Sanchez or Zito comes back?
Exactly! Just no Dirty or Zeets.
DeleteI tend to think that the Giants don't sign a FA pitcher either. We have 4 penciled in starters (including Petit)--MadBum, Cain, Petit and Hudson. I just don't see us paying big money with Timmy there at No. 5. Even if he goes into the pen (which I think he should), I just don't know that they do that. They have 3 holes: pitcher, LF, 3b. We can fix Lf if we sign Tomas. We might be able to sign tomas and Headley for slightly more than what it would have taken to sign Panda. I'm fine with that, and try one of the kids at the No 5 starter. But to sign a big time FA and leave the other two holes open doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteBTW, fwiw, I'm fine on solving 3b at in house. I seem to recall Dr. B didn't think Crawford could move, but maybe I'm wrong. Having said that, if he could, we have both Duffy and EA at SS (with the other backing up with Arias). That would be ok by me.
As for Panda leaving, I'm not surprised nor am I bummed. $100mm to pay for a guy that likely eats his way out of his contract makes no sense. He was great, I love him and I'm glad he was ours, but committing that type of capital wasn't a good move. Boston will regret both those new signings.
I think Crawford could play 3B, Adrianza too. Duffy is the one I am not sure has the arm for 3B.
DeleteLook I'm a Pay the Panda guy, from day one, no bones. So, how do I feel about this...
ReplyDelete1. It sucks. I have enjoyed our Panda from day 1. No one swings the wild stick like Da Panda. I will miss the shoe tops to chin strike zone. The infectious smile, cowboy boots, pies in the face, blowing a bubble while making a killer play from 3B, circus catches down the 3B line and Panda hats. Verlander was never the same after meeting the Panda. Two WS. It was a good vibe.
2. Won't miss the yo-yoing weight. The BS agent crap. The Santa Cruz hot tub. The Hamate bones. Dude still has a lot of growing up to do.
3. I called it as the Pence + $20M. Well it's the Pence + about $10M. As we discussed it only takes one. The Giants didn't match or Pablo didn't accept - who knows. I do bet the Giants are pretty steamed tho, as they have made very good faith efforts, and some overpays (Timmy, Huff), to keep their home grown guys.
Now for a Cuban! And hopefully someone who can play 3B defense, hitting optional.