In Part I, we looked at how the loss of Pablo Sandoval may impact the Giants. In Part II, we will look at what the Boston Red Sox may gain from signing him as well as Hanley Ramirez. A few years ago, the Red Sox went on a spending spree through free agency and trades that netted them Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, John Lackey and Josh Beckett among others. It looked good on paper, but the pieces just did not fit together, in the clubhouse or the field. The result was a last place finish with the architect, Theo Epstein fleeing the scene leaving someone else to sift through the debris. Ben Cherington somehow managed to unload the malcontents. He signed several role players to more modest contracts and the Red Sox bounced all the way back to championship. Those role players were lightning in a bottle from stopgaps, though. The plan was to gradually work in the prospects from one of the strongest farm systems in baseball as the stopgaps moved on. The problem is the rookies were not quite ready and the stopgaps all regressed to about what you would expect from them and another last place finish ensued.
The Red Sox are now on another spending spree and already find themselves with pieces that may not fit. First, let's look at the hard numbers. Pablo Sandoval has averaged 2.7 fWAR over the past 3 seasons, 2.8/600 PA. The Red Sox already had 4 in-house options who can play the position. OK, we'll stipulate that Will Middlebrooks is a bust. That leaves super-utility man Brock Holt who could take over the position and prospect Garin Cecchini who spent most of last year at AAA and played well in a small sample size with the Red Sox. They also have Xander Bogaerts who may play SS, but has played 3B and played it well. All told, I am not sure how much of an upgrade Boston just paid $100 M for.
Then there is the culture of the place. Yes, Red Sox Nation has their lovable overweight dude in Big Papi, but Panda ain't no Papi. While Giants fans in some corners would get restless when Pablo would eat himself out of the lineup, you could always find Panda hats scattered around AT&T Park. There will be no reservoir of good will in Boston. Let Pablo come in weighing 280 lbs and the first slump will turn those Boston fans into an angry mob! Heck, he might not even have to come in at 280 lbs. At his most svelte, Pablo has never been thin! The comment that the option of moving to DH is part of what attracted Pablo to Boston as well as his brother's bristling at any weight incentives is not encouraging in terms of his intention to stay in shape.
Then there is the curious fact of the concomitant Hanley Ramirez signing. Ramirez is a SS who pretty much everyone agrees cannot field the position anymore. Is Ramirez going to displace Bogaerts and SS? Maybe, but 3B is probably his best position now, except that is where Pablo is playing. Most analysts think Hanley will play LF which means that Yoenis Cespedes is almost surely going to be traded, except how much of an upgrade in LF is Ramirez over Cespedes? Even if Ramirez can play LF, will he? I can just see him jogging after balls out there right now!
Even if you take the position that Boston has unlimited money to spend and doesn't care how much it takes for a 0.5 fWAR upgrade, these are still two head-scratchy moves that are not locks for even that much of an upgrade.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Hey Doc, Panda always seemed like a sensitive guy (thus perhaps the feeling he was "disrespected" by the Giants) and I think the Giants, their fans and their clubhouse kind of protected him. I am not sure he will get that kind of support system in Boston and Papi will be long gone as a mentor by the time Panda's contract is up. We saw what a sullen Panda looked like at the start of last season and I can easily seeing him falling into a funk and the fans being relentless on him. It has a good chance of "be careful what you wish for" on both sides.
ReplyDeleteIt has a good chance of being a perfect example of someone who plays for a big contract and then mails it in once they get it! Just be happy he isn't mailing it in for the Giants over the next 5 years to the crippling tune of almost 20 million a year! Think about that for a second. 20 million a year for a guy who has put up very average numbers for a middle of the order bat and who is at high risk of being worse not better over the next 5 years. Thank you Giants for not making this mistake no matter how much I will miss the Panda I would rather see him go than watch us suck with him. Sabes has his work cut out for himself this offseason but now he has some money to play with and I for one am excited to see what he does.
DeleteDidn't the Red Sox learn their lesson with expensive contracts? Pablo, Hanley and now pursuing Lester. That is going to be about $300MM.
DeleteThe good thing is that it might make a player like Gavin Cecchini or Brock Holt available. Someone cost controlled enough to be able to go out and get a middle of the order bat like Tomas.
Pablo felt disrespected because Giants told him to stay in shape. Play winter league or workout to get BETTER. If telling you to improve is disrespectful so be it. Giants were teaching him discipline. Pablo can be unprofessional(with his weight) in Boston because they can move him to 1B or to DH. The disrespect comes from the agent and how he handled the whole thing, but I understand it's due to inexperience. Don't burn bridges buddy. I think the agents of Pablo strung the Giants along while knowing he was leaving. I think Pablo decided a long time ago may be internally through Big Papi that he wanted to come to Boston during the season. Now after winning the World Series Pablo felt bad for what he knew he was going to do and that was leave. I think it's ok for the Giants from a business stand point and for me I want a pissed off Sabean! Being spurned by Pablo now I feel the Giants will have to be all-in with winning in 2015. In resigning Pablo I got the feeling that the Giants felt that it was going to be enough to contend in 2015. Time to go back to pitching and defense. I think management just took the gloves off of Brian Sabean. Don't worry about money...let's win 2015! I feel big moves coming soon.
DeleteI agree the whole situation yesterday was poorly handled by the agent. At least we get a draft pick as compensation.
DeleteRoger,
DeletePablo and Hanley are already almost $200 million. You have to figure that Lester is going to get more than $100mil. I've seen more like $135mil.
Agreed. I just don't agree to go all-in unless the moves make sense. Going all-in is what the Angels tried to do with Josh Hamilton and we all know how that worked. But if you mean adding pieces like Tomas, Lester, or other non quality offer guys I am with you 100%. I do believe the Giants should spend some cash. Tons of money comes off the books next year and we only have 2 starting pitchers on payroll for 2016. I am a big fan of Lester but I would not be too disappointed if we spent the money in LF on Tomas and got a guy like Justin Masterson or Jason Hammel. But I definitely agree we should make a splash somewhere.
ReplyDeleteFor the right price I think Sandoval would have been a solid FA signing. But the Boston money... I think it's too much.
ReplyDeletePanda's best season playing weight was, from what I understand, something under 250lbs, maybe in the 240 range. However, it has not been uncommon for him to tip the scales over 270lbs. 240, if mostly muscle, can work. But when he's rocketing up to 270+lbs, that's just too much fat for his 5' 11" frame and the excess weight (30lbs or more) seems to effect his on-field performance. The one year he was in good shape, he was outstanding on defense. But other than that, he's been average. The fat also hurts his base-running. The MLB average of first-to-third on a single is close to 40%. Sandoval is at 29%. And while it's a small difference, baseball championships and winning records are often made on those small, marginal differences.
As a person I like the guy. Maybe have some beers and empanadas with him. But as a GM wanna-be, I'd make an offer that made me look serious in resigning him and gamble that whoever does sign him is going to get his continuing decline in offensive production coupled with his average (and likely to decline) defense.
In short, I just don't trust him stay in shape in order to earn the paycheck. Even during the 'audition' years prior to the big FA paycheck, he couldn't put in the effort to stay in shape. Now that he's got the big contract, he has even less incentive.
My point is Giants budget is self imposed. Lester is an all-in move. Moncada is an all-in move. Even though I don't think Moncada will play in 2015 season. He can be signed this yr or by July 2015. I don't think the Giants feel Tomas can play LF and or is confident he can play 3B plausibly. This is just me, but my all-in means the Giants lose their 1st round pick by signing Melky( I know he burned his bridges...I know he is kind of similar to Morse, but the switch hitting and better defense is a need)LF, signing Lester(hope he cares more about a ring and will take less money with Giants) SP, and having Moncada ready to go at 3B(2016). I'm ok with Arias playing 3B for now and if need be Sabean can make trade before deadline. Giants are really good also at waiting until just before spring training to see who is available and take a one year flyer on a player(in this case a 3B) or a player released and tried to sneak through waivers may be. Yes, the Giants have 20 mill, but it's self imposed. Giants limit could be 35 mill and I hope that's enough to get a Melky and Lester. Moncada's money will come out of next yrs budget or so I want to believe in my all-in model! All-in isn't throwing money at everything. All-in for me is taking more risk which you can do after 3 rings this decade. Hoping for a Boston vs. Giants World Series 2015!
ReplyDeleteWell, it's very rare these days, but Sabean is a straight shooter in that he stated before and during negotiation that there was no internal option to replace Sandoval and this was his top, number 1 priority. He doesn't play games, even though being upfront weakened his position. I hope that will attract quality free agents who deem stable and trustworthy management an important part of their careers.
ReplyDeleteThat, and a winning tradition, a chance to win a ring, a great manager, at least post-season wise, a great park, great fan base, a no-ego general manager (you know who I am talking about) who doesn't try to take away credit due you (the player), treat you as a person, not some buy-low, sell-high (reputation only) commodity to flip, and you know your teammates will be around and play as a team, instead of playing like this is just a step on his way to bigger and better things (compiling personal stats becomes important)...and you can't blame him either, as he is tempted to believe he will be flipped before becoming arbitration eligible.
I think if you're more than just numbers, more than just stats, but are decent, honorable and reliable, good karma will come your way, even if you are not media savvy (like some one we know who loves limelight) and occasionally say stuff like 'our players are like cockroaches,' and there is not a movie made about your genius.
In other news, it looks like Flannery is stepping down. This has been a bit of a downer of a week.
ReplyDeleteFrom BSN's side I just can't see any chowderhead fan wearing a Panda hat. No Pandas in BSN. No fun.
ReplyDeleteAgree that as soon as Panda's weight hits 270lbs - ding! - the S%#ts gonna hit the fan.
If Pablo has a flailing away at every pitch stretch - ding! - the S%#ts gonna hit the fan.
Money can buy championships but not the underdog passion, heart and soul that make up the Giants team and coaches. On that note, I will miss Flannery much more than Pablo.
Well, Pabs and Flannery were both very special Giants. I'm gonna miss both of 'em. All good things come to an end.
DeleteBut it's hard not to be struck by the great disparity between the devotion, modesty, generosity, and personal warmth in Flannery's statement versus the calculated venality, strategic deceit, and exploitative ploys surrounding Sandoval's migration from one coast to the other. Good things come to their ends differently.
DeleteCheck out Flan's website; http://www.timflannery.com/
ReplyDeleteHe has a life beyond ball. Truly a real cool guy.
I can't imagine anyone either then Flan covering third; or maybe Will commits to starting a coaching career.
Richard in Winnipeg
Will? I say JT Snow... You know he won't send Posey to get gunned down at home in the playoffs.
DeleteI'm glad we didn't go over a Pence deal for Pablo and stated that even that was an over pay. I loved the Panda when he moved well but was disturbed by him when he was slow and over weight. I will miss his throws to first and his flips over the dugout railing but I won't miss his swings in the dirt right after he watched strike 2 go right down the middle. Funny thing about this whole deal is in my house we have 2 fat heads in the "sports palace" one is Buster Posey and the other is Dustin Pedroia as my sons favorite team is the Red Sox. Yes he pulls for the Giants in the NL but as a little kid loved Pedro Martinez. I guess that means I get to rib him when the crap hits the fan when Pablo comes into spring weighing 270.
ReplyDeleteAs expected, many of us are "splitting" now that Pablo has made a business decision and gone with the Red Sox. To put ourselves in his shoes, if some competing company made you an offer that was 10 or 20 million more than your original company, would that persuade you to accept some potential pitfalls of fan scrutiny or "less mentorship?" I think one can overplay the idea of "being disrespected" but if you look at the facts from Pablo's point of view, his decision to go to another team that is also a contender for 10 million more makes some sense.
ReplyDeleteI personally like Pablo and wish him well, he plays the game with heart and although he isn't the most disciplined of all players, we all enjoyed rooting for him on the field and he contributed to 2 championships.
As an aside, I personally feel that the economics of MLB baseball are plaguing the game. The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers have all made it painfully obvious that money is no object when it comes to buying stuff on the field. We like to dissect WAR and value but they want to be the best teams on paper. A harder salary cap would bring better parity and balance to the league-- wouldn't it be nice to see the Twins, Brewers, or (fill in your small market team) compete on the same playing field as the big boys? Instead, we see the sell-offs and free agent pickups annually and hope that the compensation picks and prospects are enough to balance things off. I don't see that as good for the game, but what are your thoughts?
I agree with you on the Pablo part. He was a good Giant and will be long remembered for his contributions to the best era of San Francisco Giants baseball.
DeleteAs for the economics of baseball, it's a complicated issue that takes much longer to address than I can do here. In short, though, I basically don't have a problem with players getting as much as they can and having the freedom to choose where they want to play. The current setup, while not perfect, has achieved as much parity as there has ever been in the sport. It seems to me that the teams who have done the best, the Cardinals and Giants are the teams that are willing to spend money, while at the same time working their butts off to find talent, undervalued talent if you will, anywhere they can find it.
If I would change one thing, it would be to get the minor leaguers representation at the collective bargaining table and get more of the total money available in MLB to the the minor leaguers who deserve to earn a living at what they do too. There needs to be a better route for getting money to the minor leaguers than simply giving signing bonuses. Maybe if they were paid better, it would take away the incentive to get better and move up for some, but I think the benefit would outweigh that risk.
DrB, I agree that you should be able to spend whatever you want to spend but I do not think the penalties are strict enough. I believe the NBA has a better system for the luxury tax. Instead of inflating percentages in baseball (17.5%, 30%, 40%, 50%) for each offending year, I think it should be like the NBA where the fine for going over is over a dollar for every dollar spent. Here is their grid for the 2013-14 season:
DeleteAmount over tax threshold Standard tax per excess dollar Repeat offender tax per excess dollar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$4,999,999 or less $1.50 $2.50
$5 million to $9,999,999 $1.75 $2.75
$10 million to $14,999,999 $2.50 $3.50
$15 million to $19,999,999 $3.25 $4.25
Over $20 million $3.25 + $0.50 per $5 million $4.25 + $0.50 per $5 million
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, there is still no stopping the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers from going over the cap but making a strict penalty if they do. Repeat offenders get the shaft. Based on these figures the Dodgers would have a luxury tax penalty of $84,436,121 instead of $11,400,000 since they were over the cap by $58,872,242. I think I did the math right. lol. Anyways, it would be a much harsher penalty that what they received.
The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers spent and spent but in 2014, fell short of the Royals and Giants, with the Cardinals and Pirates among the Giants' opponents, and the Brewers were right behind those two. I would like those who worry about the economics of baseball to make a showing, based on correlating payroll, market size, and success, that the current system produces continuing disparity. Otherwise, I myself would prefer the current system, in which the revenue goes largely to the players, to a spending cap system in which the revenue goes much more into the pockets of the owners.
ReplyDeleteAs to the treatment of minor leaguers, I'm wholly in agreement with DrB. It's shameful.