Pablo Sandoval has been one of the key pieces in the Giants homegrown core of players responsible for winning 3 World Series Championships in the last 5 years. Not only has he been a key contributor on the field, he has been an ambassador for the team and the sport with his unique build, style of play, enthusiasm and Panda alter ego that captured the imagination of fans, young and old. I mean, can you imagine watching a Giants game on TV without the camera panning to fans wearing panda hats? While Pablo Sandoval has been one of the most exciting players to watch over the last 6 seasons, he is also one of the more frustrating to watch given his battles with various health issues and a feeling of unfulfilled potential.
I first heard the name Pablo Sandoval when he was listed as a 17 yo switch-hitting catcher with the rookie league Arizona Giants in 2004. The line he put up there was not remarkable: .266/.287/.373, 9 2B, 5 3B, 0 HR, 177 AB, 17 K's. You can already see both a low walk rate and low K rate here. We'll call it a high contact rate!
Instead of sending him to low A ball in 2005, the Giants kept Pablo in extended spring training and sent him to short season Salem-Keizer in the Northwest League as a third baseman. He raked the NWL: .330/.383/.425, 15 2B, 3 HR, 294 AB, 33 K's. Again, note the high contact rate. It was in the fall of 2005 when I first saw his picture in Baseball America. Yikes! Let's just say it looked a little different than what I was expecting! The numbers were mighty impressive, though.
2006 in low A ball was disappointing to say the least: .265/.309/.322, 20 2B, 1 HR, 438 AB, 22 BB, 74 K's. Not only did he hit poorly, but he committed errors at 3B at an alarming rate. He was moved to 1B so he could concentrate on his hitting. His name disappeared from top prospect lists.
The Giants promoted him to High A San Jose for the 2007 season where he split time between catcher and first base. The numbers were an improvement on 2006, but still less than impressive for the Cal League: .287/.312/.476, 33 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR, 401 AB, 16 BB, 52 K's. He still had a high contact rate and showed a lot more power. Late in the season, I saw him hit one of the longest HR's I've seen anywhere off James McDonald in San Bernardino. The ball appeared to be still rising when it made contact with the netting that keeps balls from flying out into E Street. I kind of filed that away and said to myself that there may be more here than meets the eye. I also noted that he was a lot more agile around 1B than I would expect for a guy his size.
Pablo was back in San Jose to start the 2008 season, now 21 years old, still relatively young for high A ball. He was still splitting his time between catcher and 1B. This would prove to be his breakout year as he raked the Cal League: .359/.412/.597, 25 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 273 AB, 23 BB, 39 K's. He was given a midseason promotion to the fearsome AA Eastern League and did not skip a beat: .337/.364/.549, 13 2B, 8 HR, 175 AB, 8 BB, 20 K's. He was called to San Francisco in late 2008 where he continued to rake: .345/.357/.490, 20 2B, 3 HR, 145 AB, 4 BB, 14 K's. He never went back to the minors again except for rehab assignments.
When I look back at Pablo's 2009 season, I am amazed at just how monstrous it was: .330/.387/.556, 44 2B, 5 3B, 25 HR, 572 AB. He earned an fWAR of 5.1. He was one of the few bright spots on an offensively challenged team that won 88 games that season. I think this is the season where Barry Zito made the comment that Pablo looked like the Kung Fu Panda while running the bases. A guy showed up in the RF arcade wearing a panda suit and wouldn't you know it, Pablo hit a HR right to him! The nickname stuck and before you knew it, panda hats were flying out of the Dugout Store and being worn all over AT&T Park.
2010 was the year the Giants finally put it all together and won the World Series, but it was also a bitterly disappointing season for The Panda. He seemed to enjoy the major league life just a little too much, gained a ton of weight when he was already very large. He was so out of shape, he would end up gasping for breath after routine fielding plays. His slash line plummeted to .268/.323/.409, 34 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 563 AB. His defense suffered even more and he put up a paltry fWAR of 1.4. He was benched for the postseason in favor of Juan Uribe.
The Giants sat him down after the season and told him in no uncertain terms that they expected him to be in better shape the following year and if he wasn't he would find himself back in the minors. Pablo signed up for a fitness camp in Arizona run by a former Olympic Decathlon champion in what became known as Camp Panda. He came to spring training in obviously much better shape. His 2011 season was interrupted by a broken hamate bone in his wrist, but when he played, he looked like the Panda of 2009: .315/.357/.552, 26 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 426 AB, fWAR= 5.5.
Pablo spurned another round of Camp Panda in the fall of 2011, played winter ball in Venezuela and came to spring training looking like he had gained back some weight. He missed more time after fracturing the hamate bone in his other wrist. While his line was not bad, it was not up to his 2009 and 2011 standards: .283/.342/.447, 25 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 396 AB, fWAR 2.6 which projects to the high 3's or low 4's in a full season of AB's. He capped the season with the 3 HR's in Game 1 of the World Series and won the WS MVP award. With no more hamate bones to worry about, 2013 looked like it could be another breakout season where Pablo took it to a whole new level.
2013 was disappointing for both Pablo and the team as he was again noticeably out of shape. Again, his line was not terrible, but not what you would hope for from The Panda: .278/.341/.417, 27 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 525 AB, fWAR of 2.3. He was a negative defender. Toward the end of the season, Pablo let it be known that he had hired his brother to be a live in chef and was finally eating healthy. At his postseason press conference, GM Brian Sabean openly expressed his frustration saying it was now up to Pablo. The Giants had done everything they could do to help him. He had 1 more year left on his contract. The Giants made him a lowball extension offer, but were clearly leary of making a high priced, long term commitment.
Pablo showed up to spring training in 2014 looking noticeably thinner. Perhaps pressing from the knowledge that he was playing for his next contract, he got off to a terrible start to the season hitting .177 in April. After that, he hit over .300 for May, June, July and August before slumping again in September. His defense, both to the eye and by UZR was improved over 2013. Overall, his line ended up not much different than 2013: .279/.324/.415, 26 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 588 AB. The improved D bumped his fWAR to 3.0. He started the postseason slowly, but hit over .400 for the World Series and contributed to the Giants 3'rd championship in 5 seasons, a truly remarkable run. It may be just me, but by the end of the season it looked like Pablo was again noticeably bigger than he was in spring training.
The Giants and Pablo Sandoval now have a huge mutual decision to make that will impact both him and the team immediately and for years to come. Pablo clearly loves being a Giant, the camaraderie on the team and the adulation he gets from Giants fans. Does he give that up to take the biggest payday he can find on the market? Do the Giants trust that he will keep his weight and conditioning issues under control for the duration of a large, multiyear contract? Does the risk of a long term deal outweigh the immediate loss at a position that will be extremely difficult to fill?
We should know the answer to these questions soon.
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"Extremely difficult to fill": one way to do so for the short run is to divide Sandoval's on-field contribution into offense and defense. If the team had a deft-fielding 2 WAR third baseman, and could pick up another 1 or 1.5 WAR at another position, it would compensate for the lack of Sandoval. If Belt were to play a full year and thereby contribute another 1-1.5 WAR, or if a full year of Panik were to add to the WAR total the Giants get from 2B, we would be in 2015, minus Sandoval, where we were in 2014 with him. Again, this assumes the team can put a highly capable defender worth 2 WAR at 3B. Since the team got only 1 WAR from Morse this past year, trading for a desirable LF might well add enough WAR to compensate for losing Sandoval. It would be lovely to add these extra WAR to the WAR produced by a fit, focused, professional Sandoval on the Giants, but if comfortably rich Sandoval gets fatter and fatter while also eating up the team's financial resources, we won't have some of those extra WAR to add.
ReplyDeleteI hope Duvall is working his butt off this winter on his defensive chops at 3rd.
ReplyDeleteSeems they could try a system similar to what they've done in LF where Duvall plays 6 innings, takes some mighty hacks, and cedes to the plus defenders Arias/Duffy later. Or run a quasi-platoon out of their in-house options.
It seems if Sandoval gets to sit down and talk shop with the Sox, then game over. I bet the White Sox would be interested as well.
Pablo's situation (obviously) has some similarities to the Pujols/Cards situation after the 2011 season. World Series winner has to decide whether to overpay a popular hometown hero. (Cards, like the Giants, even made a low-ball offer early on to Pujols (Want to say it was around 5/80 or so?)).
ReplyDeleteIt's been said, but I have to agree: Giants need to come up with a considered, final, best offer for Pablo. And not move it, regardless of market.
Given that, it sounds like an almost certainty the Red Sox would overpay, feeling Pablo and the RF short porch are a match made in heaven. That story will not have a happy ending unless Pablo puts up consistent, superstar numbers. Kind of a sensitive guy in a demanding, backstabbing, acrimonious atmosphere. LIterally dozens of stories anger and discontent from the lockerroom over the years. Some of them must be true. I remember that photo of Punto, Crawford and Gonzalez on the private jet after they were traded to the Dodgers in 2012: They were beside themselves with joy, like they'd escaped hell.
I hope Pablo stays. And honestly, my number is very high. Give him the Pence deal. But, he'll get offered more.
What kind of package would it take to get Kris Bryant from the Cubs? Crick, Stratton, and Susac/Sanchez?
ReplyDeleteThe Cubs are not going to trade Kris Bryant!
DeleteThat would be comparable to the trade of Wil Myers for James Shields. So Bumgarner for Bryant and CJ Edwards. Sound good ? Not so much.
DeleteYeah, Kris Bryant ain't going anywhere.
DeleteObviously, make the QO so we can at least get a draft pick. And I would make a 'generous' offer, in hopes that Pablo wants to stay. But it's most likely that Panda will get a ridiculous overpay, and we'd be foolish to get into a bidding war. Let's hope he's content to be 'very rich' here, as opposed to 'super rich' somewhere else.
ReplyDeleteWe better prepare ourselves for the Giants to get into a bidding war with the Yankess for Headley's services. I like Headley and think he can produce just as well offensively as Panda did this season. Obviously, I don't know if Headley will be the clubhouse presence or postseason performer Panda is, but I think he can give us similar production at the plate along with improved defense.
ReplyDeleteOh, and extend a QO to Sandoval. It would be crazy not to.
Ok, the Cubs have Mike Olt, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant ready at 3B. If Pablo leaves, the Cubs seem to be a good team to make a trade with. Of course, out of those three I would like to see Giants go after Bryant. Granted top prospects rarely get traded...isn't a blog where you dream the impossible? May be I shouldn't think Giants could trade for a top prospect? Or, why would the Cubs even trade a top prospect. I do know that Bryant with the way the Cubs handled him and was upset he wasn't brought up in 14' after great season. Could be something or it could be nothing. This is the reason Giants might have a shot at getting Bryant with the right package. What do I know...wishful thinking because that's how a fan thinks.
ReplyDeleteI still think trading for Bryant is wishful thinking no matter how the Cubs have handled him. And I don't think he was really all that upset.
DeleteNow, I have heard rumblings that the Giants should target Mike Olt. He'd be high risk, but he could put it together ala Chris Davis.
Yeah, Baez seems ticketed more for 2B and Bryant for 3B. Luis Valbuena, anybody?
DeleteI'd take Valbuena, but he might cost more than someone like Olt. Does he have much upside, though?
DeleteNo upside on Valbuena. In fact, I would say he is a pretty good bet to regress.
DeleteI think we are asking too simple of a question here. We will not replace Sandoval at 3B. His presence at the plate, his reputation among pitchers that you can't pitch to him because he can hit anything when he's hot, his relatively good D and his obvious fan appreciation and success at the concession stands.
ReplyDeleteI think the Giants "replace him" by improving other situations. For instance, there is a glut of pitching available this offseason. It is not far fetched to think there will be replacements for the end of the rotation at a relatively team-friendly price when it's all said and done. If we improve 2-3 wins at the back of the rotation, add in Panik and Belt for a season, we have "replaced" Sandoval statistically.
Long opinion short, the Giants need to upgrade an arm in the rotation, add a couple nice pieces to the bullpen (Sabean has a history of doing this rather cheaply) and find a serviceable 3B if Sandoval is ready to sign for a load of cash. I say the Pence contract is a great place for negotiations.
Last thing: with Sandoval's weight issues and on and off motivation, the last thing we need is a financially secure Panda who has no need to be in great shape. His play fluctuates greatly and money seems to be a great motivator. Once he gets it, is he just Mo Vaughn trying to play 3B?
The Cubs are not going to trade Bryant or Baez, who are possibly top 5 prospects in the game. The Giants just don't have the pieces in the minors to even draw mild interest from the Cubs. I would not even consider Olt, who has struggled mightily with the bat in the minors... the Giants can cobble something better with in-house options. I just can't see Panda with another team... it would be a lose-lose, especially if Panda ends up in a tough fanbase city like Boston. Giants likely to go fewer years but higher AAV. They can try to groom Arroyo or Jones as his eventual replacement.
ReplyDeleteI understand the risk involved but does anybody think we should have offered Peavy a QO? Seems most people think he will get a 2-3 year deal either with the Giants or somewhere else. Worst case if he did not reject the QO we could come right back and offer a 2 year deal that would work for both sides. Maybe 2/$26MM?
ReplyDeleteI believe Peavy is ineligible because he was an in-season acquisition.
DeleteYou are completely right!! I forgot. I just read Baggarly's tweet and thought about it but you are correct.
DeleteAndrew Baggarly @CSNBaggs · 1h 1 hour ago
#SFGiants have made a $15.3 million qualifying offer to Pablo Sandoval, I'm told. They did not offer on Peavy, Vogelsong, Romo or Morse.
Thanks for the update, Roger. Sounds like Peavy is gone unless the Giants are willing to go 2+ years. Seems like he enjoyed being a Giant, but he now has two WS rings with his last two teams after joining them mid-season. Despite Bochy being here I'm not sure he was here long enough to feel ingrained as a Giant, and his poor post-season performance certainly didn't help things either from his perspective or the team's. Romo is likely gone too, since the Giants have always shown skill in finding useful bullpen arms at a bargain. Had he not lost the closer's job there might be more incentive on both sides to keep them together for 2015. Morse was a good Giant when it counted most, and a great clubhouse guy, but alas, he and the Giants both realize his best fit is in the AL. So that leaves Vogey. I just have a feeling he comes back for one more year at a reasonable cost, slots in as the #4 or #5 starter, gives it his best shot for a strong season, then hangs it up. Oh, and I am pretty sure the Giants and Panda work things out, allowing him to keep playing with the team and city he loves, and pleasing his large fanbase. Not sure if I am thinking more with my heart than my head and purely as a fan rather than objectively, but that is my gut feeling on each of these players.
DeletePence earned "the pence" because he's a workout freak who plays 155+ games a year. Panda, while being a post season hero, just hasn't shown that level of discipline outside of a contract year. I play Duffy at third before I risk that kind of cash. The Cards have shown that its not the end of the world when a franchise icon leaves. Sometimes you have to let go.
ReplyDeletePujols was age 32, the Panda age 28, and we don't have Matt Adams waiting at 3B.
DeleteDuffy's arm looks like a slingshot from SS, we need a cannon from 3B.
I have no problem with post season heroes.
Yes, the age factor is a huge consideration, as well as the fact that the potential replacements for Panda don't quite match up offensively or defensively. Others have mentioned we can replace Panda with some kind of offensive-defensive platoon, but the truth is that would entail two different players staying healthy and performing up to expectations. And "replacing" Panda's offensive production by shoring up other areas is not ideal either... signing Panda to a reasonable contract would not preclude addressing those other areas of weakness since I am sure the 3rd WS title has provided at least a modest revenue boost. I hope Panda can have a heart to heart talk with fellow players who have been in his situation as a beloved fan favorite who moved on. Reading between the lines of Pujols' interviews since leaving the Cardinals suggest that he really misses St. Louis and regrets leaving and that it was his perceived "poor handling" by management that was the only reason he left. If the Giants and Panda can work things out amicably both sides can hopefully avoid a painful parting of ways that would really be a lose-lose situation for both parties.
DeleteOnce upon a time I got PO'd at the administration of the healthcare facility where I work. I was contacted by the medical director of a competing group and offered a position. Fortunately, some of my concerns were addressed and I ended up staying. In retrospect, leaving for the new job would have been the worst mistake of my life! The grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence.
DeleteI like the idea of overpaying a bit on the average salary and keeping the contract to 3 years. 51 to 60 million over 3 years.
ReplyDeletePanda isn't playing on a 3 year contract, so kiss that idea goodbye. As for the age of Pujols, the point is moot because Sandoval also isn't going to get a 10 year deal. The Giants have plenty of time here. They've extended a QO and can wait to see what the market for Sandoval is. No need to go crazy breaking the bank until we see what numbers in $$$/years teams are talking about. It isn't the end of the world if he leaves, plus we'll get a great draft pick as compensation.
ReplyDeletePeavy is a goner. He'll be too expensive for the postseason taste he left in our mouths...
Romo is long gone. I'll wish him well, but that frisbee is slowly flattening out.
Morse was an awesome Giant in the mold of Burrell, but he's made for the AL playing DH with a handful of 1B days thrown in.
Vogelsong isn't a hot commodity. Wait for pitching market to unfold, see what's available and know he's an option if we need it.
Why nor give him a 5 year deal and, when he gets too fat to be in the field, trade him to an AL club. Giants might have to eat a few bucks, but it's worth it.
Delete"Why not give him a 5 year deal"? I'm all for it if the price is right... The price is going to be inflated because there is an influx of pitchers on the market and few proven hitters. 5/100mil is probably close to what it would cost... Not sure he hits for enough power for an AL club to jump out of their chairs to sign him to DH towards the end of a contract.
DeleteWhen there is an influx of pitchers and few proven hitters, the law of supply and demand implies we find undervalued deals in pitchers.
DeleteIs that how it will play out? We will have to wait and see.
I love how everyone talks about Panda's decision like it is an actual choice he is going to make! There will be no considering of ANY offers that aren't the highest and everyone should get that one by now. There are no hometown discounts in Free Agency (if they would have extended him at the beginning of the year maybe). The players association will never allow Panda to take less money and I would bet just about anything that the Giants will not be the highest bidder.
ReplyDeleteAs for replacing him, I don't mind going with internal options like Duffy, Duval, Arias, and even Buster to see if anyone stands out next season. Headley isn't a good option and niether are Asdrubal or Aramis but if any of those guys slipped through the cracks and could be had on the cheap then maybe. I'm more concerned about getting another starter and a decent LF.
The last option that sounds crazy but could be a possibility is Josh Donaldson. Beane and Sabes don't get along as we all know but Beane has never found himself in such a tough spot as he is right now. His farm is depleted and it might be the best chance Sabes has to pry away a nice piece from Billy. Billy will want Crick and probably a few more top prospects but for some reason I could see this working out.
I like it. Back up the Brinks truck with whatever prospects the Giants have. Blackburn, Crick, Mejia, + Duvall and I don't if that that's enough.
DeleteThis is about as unhinged a comment as I've seen in awhile. Pato, just a year ago, Hunter Pence gave the Giants a HUGE hometown discount! To think the Player's Association is dictating to players what offers they can accept is the stuff of conspiracy theory enthusiasts. Do players usually take the highest offer regardless of where it came from? Probably, but I am quite sure it is not universally true.
DeleteHe signed the extension before hitting the free agent market if I'm not mistaken which I often am. Jared Weaver was another and MadBum and Cain did it too but they all signed before other teams were able to make bids on them. Nobody can make anybody do anything but the players association will surely make an effort to encourage Panda to go with the highest bidder to help set the market for guys like Headley and others. If for nothing more, Panda is human and anyone with half a brain knows that you take the money now even if it is just 1 million more like Juan Uribe did when he left to go to the dodgers!! There are no loyalties and once a player hits free agency he doesn't come back. Aside from uncoveted players like Voggie last year I can't really think of anyone else who tested the market and turned down bigger money to come back.... ever!!
DeletePence could have been a FA in a few days. The season was over. He had no reason to be afraid of a serious injury anymore. You are not suggesting that Hunter Pence was too uninformed to know what is market value was, right? Hunter Pence was, for all practical purposes a FA and he gave the Giants a HUGE hometown discount!
DeleteI would say that a player who chooses not even to find out how much the market would bring him, if only to get a higher matching offer from his preferred team, is certainly not behaving in the simply venal way that Pato thinks is universal. And I believe that in the last few years Giants' players have chosen to stay with us rather than get slightly more elsewhere; but I can't give specific examples, so I put this forth hesitantly. Certainly players have made choices based on geography (Carlos Lee comes to mind) or park characteristics (Olerud vetoing the Giants, ditto A. Soriano), so factors other than money affect players' decisions. More important, though, is that history is a pretty fallible guide in individual cases, especially when the affection of fans, the prospect of WS titles, and one's playing environment are factors, as here with Sandoval.
ReplyDeleteRegardless, is the thrust of Pato's comments that we should simply abandon the idea of Sandoval's return? Should we simply make a strong pitch for Headley, say, whom Pato for unspecified reasons doesn't want, on the grounds that the sooner we act to get a third baseman the better? Or is Pato making sure that we don't get our hopes up, because he is solicitous of our feelings when we are let down, as we will be?
I find myself in the very odd position, for me, of agreeing with him that the Giants can best direct their care and dollars elsewhere, for an SP and a LF, putting off finding a new 3B for the time being, till sometime in 2015. I'm not sure this has ever happened before.
Andrew Torres turned down more money to come back to the Giants, possibly a foolish decision on his part. I believe Scutaro signed for less than he could have gotten elsewhere. Pagan gave the Giants a chance to match the best offer from somewhere else.
DeleteI agree with Pato to the extent that I believe in most cases money is the biggest factor in ballplayer's decisions but it is not the only factor and it is not the biggest factor for some players. The Players Association is not standing over the players with a whip telling them they have to choose the highest bidder regardless of personal preferences or non-monetary needs.
I never saw this reported, so this is only my assumption of what happened, but I think that Pagan and the Giants had an under-the-table agreement. With the Giants not giving him a QO, I think they bought themselves an offer to match any offer he received, but with an additional discount applied (I assumed it was approx. 10%). It was very odd at the time that they did not offer a QO, and when they got him at a relatively decent deal (4/40), I thought SOMETHING like this HAD to be in play.
DeleteExcellent analysis of the Giants in Fangraphs yesterday (4 Nov) by Tony Blengino, "How Good Were the 2014 Giants?" By analyzing batting, pitching, and defense through very up-to-date statistical methods, he breaks down the team's areas of success. He also endorses the notion that the Giants need to put their disposable funds into pitching, not Sandoval. I found both the methods of analysis and the conclusions very illuminating.
ReplyDeleteIntuitively, it makes sense to me to put money into pitching, as I commented yesterday. We will see in due course what direction the Giants choose to take.
DeleteDisapointingly, the Giants younger pitching prospects seem to have stalled a bit, and at this point there's no guarantee that any of them will be making contributions - either this year or into the future. So, with that in mind, were I the FO, I would look at sewing up the front 3 of the rotation by signing a very solid & durable #2 - Shields, Lester, Liriano??, Scherzer. Yikes - none of those names seem like typical matches for the Giants.
DeleteWill Cain show up this year with a strong right arm? Will it help the struggles he was having, even at that? Does Kyle Crick even have an MLB starting future? Huge year for that kid.
I honestly have no idea what's going to go down this offseason, but I have a feeling that Sabean may look to the trade market before he shells out a massive contract & drops that 1st rounder.
(Post Script - Honestly, Blackburn/Blach/Mejia are likely to turn into at least 1 reliable, inning eating 4th/5th starter. That should do well to replace Voggie and act as an upgrade in 2015, but boy did I have higher hopes on the Giants 2014 miL pitching corps.)
I'm sure there are designs on fixing Bede (control) and getting him on that faster (college pitcher) track to the Majors.
DeleteVery early returns don't show a quick correct.
I think Beede might move a lot faster than we imagine is possible right now.
Delete