The Giants are in pretty good shape at 1B at the major league level, but this may be their thinnest position on the farm.
MLB Starter: Brandon Belt- .243/.306/.449, 12 HR, 7.7 BB%, 27.2 K%, 235 PA. If you project Belt's 2014 numbers to 600 PA's, you get 30 HR's which is rare power these days. I think he can hit for a better BA than .243 if he can stay healthy too. He does still strike out an awful lot and still struggles with inside pitches. I still think he needs to back off the plate by a couple of inches. I mean, a fastball down the middle is on his forearms and one on the inside corner is at his elbows!
MLB Reserve: Travis Ishikawa- .274/.333/.397, 2 HR, 7.4 BB%, 28.4 K%, 81 PA. Ishikawa's value went way up when he showed he could play a passable OF. That gives him enough versatility, along with his ability to pinch hit, that I think he will be on the roster next year.
Of course, we know Buster Posey will play some first base against some LHP's to rest his legs yet keep his bat in the lineup, but I am not going to list him as a reserve. Arias can play 1B too but that's strictly as an emergency as you just cannot afford to put a bat like that at 1B.
AAA: Nothing. Adam Duvall may be more of a first baseman than a 3B at this point, but I'm still putting him in the mix at 3B. Mark Minicozzi played a lot of 1B and is a minor league FA. He may be back.
AA: Angel Villalona- .227/.290/.381, 10 HR, 5.8 BB%, 23.5 K%, 400 PA. Angel V battled an injury and hit just .173 after the AA All-Star game. He was not terrible in the first half. It might be time to just move him up to AAA and see what happens.
Ricky Oropesa- .241/.315/.330, 5 HR, 9.2 BB%, 22.8 K%, 391 PA. Ricky also played some 3B but had to compete for PT with Angel at 1B and Lisson at 3B. Hit .276/.353/.362 after the AA ASG. Still not nearly as much power as I had though we would see coming out of college. I think he tends to get too deep into counts and maybe needs to be more aggressive early. Another guy who probably just need to get out of Richmond and see what he can do in the PCL.
High A: Brian Ragira- .260/.320/.444, 20 HR, 7.3 BB%, 25.1 K%, 506 PA. Ragira flipped a switch in the second half, raking the Cal League for a .297/.353/.524 line with 15 HR in 229 AB. I would think he would surely move up to AA next year.
Low A: Craig Massoni- .255/.325/.346, 1 HR, 8.9 BB%, 26.2 K%, 169 PA. I was hoping Massoni would hit better than this although Augusta is one of the toughest hitting environments in the entire minor leagues.
Short Season: Skyler Ewing- .291/.417/.473, 8 HR, 15.8 BB%, 12.3 K%, 228 PA. Wow! Look at that K/BB! That is a Joe Panik line except with a lot more power! Is this guy for real? Can't wait to see what he does and where next season. I would think he will start 2015 in San Jose. 6'th round draft pick in 2014 out of Rice. College Senior so will need to move fast, but early returns look promising. Played catcher a little in college. Can he play 3B?
Rookie: Chase Compton- .282/.391/.342, 1 HR, 9.4 BB%, 23.7 K% in 139 PA. Undrafted FA signing out of Louisiana-Lafayette. Giants seem to really like that school!
Scott Price- .275/.363/.377 in 69 AB. .250/.353/.341 in 44 AB low A. Another undrafted FA signing.
DSL: Anthony Gomez- .238/.378/.331. 19 yo in 3'rd DSL season. Not looking at all like a prospect.
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I'd like to see Belt work with Willie Mac. I've never heard anything about McCovey's coaching abilities, but if there's one guy he should be giving notes too, it's Belt.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is Belt tips his plate approach. His best AB's are when he defends the strike zone laboriously, and then taps into his power when he gets his pitch. You can visually see pitchers unraveling.
Willie Mac certainly knew how to get around on an inside pitch!
DeleteMake or break year for Belt IMO. If Pablo leaves, we are really going to need him to step up. He's got to start producing on all of the potential we have been hearing about.
ReplyDeleteI don't see any make or break years in Belt's future any more than every year is make or break for all ballplayers.
DeleteMake or break? Would one say that about Sandoval if he is a Giant next year? I ask because Belt outproduced Sandoval in 2013, with 4 fWAR or 4.3 rWAR, and Steamer predicts about the same production from Belt in 2015, 3.4 fWAR. If that is the point from which Belt is going "to start producing," with the corollary assumption that he hasn't started yet, the Giants will miss Sandoval, if he leaves, very little indeed.
ReplyDeleteI would give a lot of credit to Belt for getting himself ready for the playoffs. I never thought we would make it to the 25 man,let alone start and produce.
ReplyDeleteInstead of make or break, I would say breakout or not.
I completely agree on the suggestion to have Belt move back in the batter's box. Once pitchers started pounding him inside, that was the first thing I thought about. I wonder why he hasn't done so already.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it has to be way off the plate like Jason Heyward, but 2-3 inches would give him a little more room on the inside corner and still allow him to cover the outer half just fine. I suppose the other option would be to choke up like Hunter Pence, but even Pence stands farther off the plate than Belt.
DeleteOne would also have to consider the fact that Brandon Belt's excellent pitch recognition and strike zone judgements are and would be further affected by where he positions himself in the box. Being right on top of the pitch may have been something that's given him a leg up in his excellent control of the plate. Moving a few inches might have some pretty significant effects on how well Belt can tell ball from strike.
DeleteWhat one would need, and would be easy for the team to make, is a chart or heat map of pitches that Belt swings at and misses, contacts weakly, and takes for called strikes--either misrecognitions or pitches awkwardly placed for his swing. Then one would be in a better position to guess whether a change in stance might help him, or whether his problems are those of limited talent.
DeleteI agree that changing his stance might involve some retutoring as to recognition of balls and strikes, and gauging pitches more generally. Then too, I wonder how stubborn Belt is about accepting coaching at all. My sense is that he has resisted taking expert advice in the past, either from too much confidence in himself or from too little in risking a change, both of which seem consonant with his personality as it's been apprehensible to fans.
I am not persuaded that Belt has such great pitch recognition or strike zone judgement. He takes a lot of pitches he probably should not take and swings at a lot that he probably should not swing at. That's not to say he's a terrible hitter or should be replaced. It's just that I think there is a lot of untapped potential still there.
DeleteHave we forgotten that Belt hit .289 with an .841OPS in 2013? And .275 with a .781 OPS in 2012. And are forgetting what happened this season:
ReplyDelete"After a slow start, Belt appeared to be on his way to matching 2013's breakout season (.289/.360/.481) during a hot May in which he slashed .304/.407/.609. That is, before a pitch broke the 26-year-old slugger's hand, which deprived him of nearly two months of games. Belt returned for 11 games and was then hit in the face by an errant throw in batting practice, leading to lingering concussion symptoms and multiple trips to the disabled list. He's slashing .233/.290/.437 with 12 homers in 206 at-bats. "
So, he started slow, turned up the pace and was improving his slash line when he broke his hand. Which made him miss two months. Then, after he worked himself back he got beaned in the head and missed even more time. Then managed to work himself back onto the 25-man play off roster to play well in the playoffs, batting .295 with a .758 OPS and 6 RBIs.
So, I'm sorry if his slow start and poor year has confused people to his talent and they're worried that a guy who has shown growth and solid potential had a rough year. But I'm not confused and I don't see any reason to be terribly concerned. While he could, like all players, stand to improve any weaknesses he might have in his game, he's a slugger with good power and a good eye and reasonable wheels and plays good, albeit not great, defense.
Nobody has forgotten anything or is confused about Belt's talent nor is anyone terribly concerned. I happen to think that Belt still has untapped potential. He still gets busted on the hands or swings and misses at back foot sliders way too often. It appears to me from watching a lot of his AB's that he might have a better angle at some of those inside corner pitches without sacrificing the outside corner is he just backed off the plate by a couple of inches. That's all!
DeleteI believe I did point out that if you project his numbers out to 600 PA's you get 30 HR's which is quite good, so maybe he doesn't need to do anything. To my eye, though, he would have a better angle at pitches on the inner half of the plate if he just backed up by about 2-3 inches.
Sorry, that was a comment in general response to the make-or-break comment. Not to your post. I probably should have linked it directly with a reply instead of making it general.
DeleteBelt hit a HR in the 18th inning. The 18th Inning. Nobody else's war hit it. And he's playing 1B next year. Enjoy!
ReplyDeleteOff topic but I thought it was pretty interesting the way the Michael Cuddyer free agency worked out. I was very surprised he went with the Mets. Knowing that the Rockies have a potential payroll issue on their hands and being 36 in May, I think I would have taken the QO and pushed the Rockies hand. There is no way they would have wanted to pay him the $15.3MM for 2015. I think he could have forced them to do a multi year deal and probably earned more than $21MM. It is not like the Mets are in any position to do much in 2015. He must have wanted out pretty bad because he had all of the leverage going forward if he accepted the QO.
ReplyDeleteBelt is an intriguing player. Someone who gets extremely hot; cools; looks lost; gets super hot again. The problem has been his inability to play full-time since the yo-yo-ing began a few years ago...whether that's through said yo-yo-ing, platooning, or injury. If he could stay healthy and play every day, his tendency to play hot and cold would even out a bit and we'd get some consistency. And if that happens, we know what he's capable of. He, Posey, and Pence should be the middle of the order power, with Pagan (or whoever the future at leadoff is) and Panik setting the table. With a SS capable of hitting double digit homeruns, it limits the need to overspend on Pablo. With that being said, we'll need someone with offensive abilities to either man LF or 3B next year, and then I'd be fine with a platoon/defense-first scenario at the remaining spot.
ReplyDeleteLucky
When has Belt ever been yo-yo'd or platooned? Please educate me!
DeleteSarcasm?
DeleteIf not, dare we revisit the "Free Belt" movement? 2011 brought out the worst in the "play the kids" contingent. Then there was the couple years of "Bochy won't let him hit lefties" to endure. Now he just hasn't stayed healthy.
I yearn for a full year, uninterrupted BB.
Lucky
OK, if it was sarcasm, sorry for not picking it up.
DeleteHahaha...I was actually questioning if you were being sarcastic. It's probably a dead topic now, anyway.
DeleteLucky