Monday, June 9, 2014

Scouting the Draft: Giants 2014 Rounds 11-40 Picks

I'll try to run down the Giants rounds 11-40 picks here.  Check out CoveChatter's epic post on the same subject over on his blog linked to the left.  I'll be a bit more cursory here.  I don't know much about a lot of these picks.  There are a lot of HS picks in the last 10,  most of whom will likely not sign.

11.  Greg Brody, RHP, Belmont:  6'1", 188 lbs.  1-1, 1.57, 23 IP, 5 BB, 26 K, 8 Saves.  College closers are not bad bets after the first 2-3 rounds.

12.  Jameson Henning, SS, Western Illinois:  6'4", 190 lbs.  .310/.341/.386.  Large for a SS.  Obvious comp is Brandon Bednar.

13.  Luis Lacen, OF, Beltran Academy, HS, P.R.:  6'4", 194 lbs.  B-R, T-R. No stats.  On video he is a big athletic looking kid with long arms.  Does not have a lot of extra movement in his swing, but has natural length due to his height and arm length.  Raw with a long way to go, but a big ceiling.

14.  Kevin Rivera, SS, Beltran Academy, HS, P.R.:  5'll", 160 lbs.  B-S, T-R.  More compact than Lacen.  The most noticeable thing on his videos is he short-arms/shot puts his throws from SS.  That won't work!

15.  Benton Moss, RHP, UNC:  6'2", 174 lbs.  4-2, 3.62, 97 IP, 35 BB, 77 K.  Scouting reports say he hits 94 MPH with the FB.  Highly intelligent.  Recipient of a prestigious scholarship that Giants executive Bobby Evans also received back in his day.

16.  Kevin Ginkel, RHP, Southwestern JC(CA):  6'3", 187 lbs.  8-3, 2.76, 88 IP, 18 BB, 58 K's.

17.  Caleb Smith, LHP, South Carolina(Aiken)- 6'3", 195 lbs.  0-1, 3.71, 26.1 IP, 28 BB, 36 K.

18.  Edrick Agosto, RHP, HS, P.R.:  6'4", 273.  Jumbo size kid who reportedly hits 92 on the gun.

19.  Richard Amion, OF, Alabama St.:  5'11", 190 lbs.  B-R?, T-R. .336/.452/.498, 4 HR, 17 SB.

20.  Bret Underwood, OF, Northwestern St.:  6'1", 202 lbs.  B-S, T-R.  .309/.368/.404, 13 SB.

21.  Matthew Crownover, LHP, Clemson:  5'11", 201 lbs.  8-6, 2.90, 99.1 IP, 20 BB, 90 K's.

22.  Mark Reyes, LHP, Crowder(MO) JC.  6'2", 205 lbs.  8-3, 2.20, 86 IP, 10 BB, 81 K.

23.  Jordan Johnson, RHP, Cal State Northridge:  6'3", 180 lbs.  3-6, 4.33, 72.2 IP, 15 BB, 39 K's.

24.  Michael Peterson, RHP, Riverside CC(CA):  No stats.  6'6", 195 lbs.  88 MPH.

25.  Byron Murray, OF, HS:  5'10", 200 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  Kevin Mitchellesque hitter semi-famous for hitting tape measure HR's in showcase derbys.

26.  Hunter Cole, 3B, Georgia:  6'1", 186 lbs.  .319/ .400/.430, 3 HR, 3 SB.

27.  Conner Kaden, RHP, Wake Forest:  6'3", 200 lbs.  2-3, 3.52, 61.1 IP, 26 BB, 52 K's.

28.  Nick Sabo, LHP, Long Beach St:  6'5", 220 lbs.  4-6, 3.30, 79 IP, 28 BB, 49 K's.

29.  Ryan Cruz, RHP, College of the Canyons(CA):  6'3", 205 lbs.  6-6, 3.91, 92 IP, 40 BB, 62 K.

30.  Cliff Covington, 1B/LHP, West Florida:  6'3", 195 lbs. .321/.434/.489, 4 HR, 5 SB.

31.  Nick Nelson, RHP, HS:  6'0", 179 lbs.  6-2, 1.21, 75 IP, 49 BB, 99 K.

32.  Hunter Williams, OF, HS:  6'3", 215 lbs.  B-L, T-L.  Perfect Game describes him has having "huge power."

33.  Jared Deacon, C, CS Fullerton:  .225/.336/.233.  Giants seem to include a defense-first catcher in every draft class.

34.  Tim Susnara, C, HS:  6'1", 195 lbs.  B-L, T-R. Perfect Game:  Defensive tools stand out.  BA went from .340 to .310 to .225 in the last 3 years.  Video looks like a typical A's player.  Scrappy!

35.  Mitch Hart, RHP, HS:  6'3", 175 lbs.  FB 92.  "Projectable."  Committed to USC.

36.  Zach Taylor, C, HS:  6'1", 210 lbs.  B-S, T-R.  No info.

37.  Garrett Christman, SS, HS:  6'2", 180 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  Does not look like a SS at the next level.  More of a power hitter type. Dad is a Giants scout.  Kid said he was surprised he was drafted.  Is open to turning pro, but expects to go to college at Butler.

38.  Benito Santiago Jr., C, HS.  Like dad, he's an undersized catcher.  I'm thinking he will go to college.

39.  Joe Ryan, RHP, HS:  6'2", 185 lbs.  91 MPH.  Committed to Cal St. Northridge.

40.  Riles Mahan, SS, HS:  6'3", 180 lbs.  Also not a SS at he next level.  UK commit. Unlikely to sign.


  1. Something about a Junior Santiago sounds awesome to me.

    The Giants system could use a high baseball IQ catcher like a Stewart amongst their high upside guys, and Catching does seem to be a position that is hereditary to some extent. Bochy having worked with his dad makes it interesting, and puts some weight behind all the "Giants family" talk. I kind of think this was a steal for the Giants if he signs.

    That said, have the Giants almost given up on the toolsy position players, like the Posey types that represent "sure things" for more risk, upside projects? I'm not sure the clubs got the framework within the system to make that work. Heck, even with pitching, watching Tuig's development makes me a little worried for Beede.

    1. Each draft class has it's own unique characteristics. I'm not sure I would describe Buster Posey as "toolsy", "sure thing" yes, but not toolsy. I am sure if there had been a Buster Posey available at #14 this year, the Giants would have jumped on it. If anything, the Giants have not taken enough of the high upside projects in the early rounds. They have preferred to take those types in the later rounds where the success rate is even more daunting.

      As for Beede, there is really no comparison at all between him and Vander Tuig. Beede has way more size, velocity and stuff. I am afraid Vander Tuig may have left his arm on the mound in Rosenblatt Stadium, but his stuff was limited even before that. He was always a pitchability college guy and the track record for those types is pretty dismal.

    2. Buster was considered a blue chip draft, wasn't he? The mythology is he could play every position on the field. He wasn't Harper, but the closest the Giants have come to drafting a full rounded stud out the block.

      The Tuig - Beede comparison is mostly about college guys leading their teams in winning seasons, and looking experienced, and like a short trip to the bigs after some refining. Same schedules and maturity. Not meant to compare stuff.

  2. I think the Giants had a little bit of success with Jonathan Sanchez about was on and off, never quite went away.

    And we are still working with Crick on control.

    I don't remember Cain having control issue in the minors, but only the first few years in the big leagues, until, I believe, the Unit came and I think, he convinced to give up a little velocity for control. The same with Santiago Casilla, whom the coach(es) instilled the same belief.

    Marlowe is another guy, I believe...lots of strike outs and walks in college. Still a work in progress I think.

    So, I hope they can help Beede with his control issue as well...and all the other hard throwing guys we have drafted....This guy, Caleb Smith from USC(Carolina), 17th round, 28 BB in 26 IP?!?! Can be he the next Jonathan Sanchez?

    1. To me, this Tyler Beede "control issue" thing has been blown way out of proportion. Beede's control is about where you would expect it to be for a hard throwing young pitcher his age. More development? Yes. "Fix"? There is nothing broken so nothing that needs to be fixed!

    2. Doc, I hope you're right. I am just basing it on what many 'experts' have written.

    3. Please refer me to any "experts" who say Beede needs to be "fixed."

    4. Doc, I read mock drafts and draft reviews about his walks.

      I wrote above that I hope we can 'help' with his 'control issue.'

      If you ask me to cite 'experts' who say he needs to be 'fixed,' I am not sure I will be able to locate such a precise quote. His walks, yes. Many have mentioned that.

      'To help,' as I wrote above, is my own. I hope they can help him with his 'control' - I said that based on what I have read from 'experts' who mentioned his number of walks this past year.

    5. You understand that Beede's walk rate actually improved significantly from 2013 to 2014, right? A BB/9 in the 3's is not optimal, but it is also not terrible. If you want an example of a college pitcher who had much worse walk rates, you don't have to look any further than Timmy. Again, I just don't get this angst over what I would consider to be a normal walk rate for a young, hard throwing pitcher at his stage of development.

    6. His BB/9 was right at 4, again not optimal but not "broken" and within the range of what you would expect from a hard throwing young pitcher at his stage of development.

    7. Timmy's BB/9 his junior year in college was 4.5.

    8. Matt Cain's BB/9 in AA was 4.19 in 2004. It was 4.59 in AAA the year he was called up. It ran in the 3.5-4.1 range his first few seasons in the majors, he has gradually brought it down into the mid-high 2's as he has matured.

    9. Tim Hudson is a pitcher with good control, right? He had BB/9's of 3.77 and 3.81 at Auburn then ran right around 4 through the minors. His first season in Oakland when he went 11-2 with a 3.23 ERA his BB/9 was 4.09.

      I could go on and on, but I think you see the point. There is nothing about Tyler Beede's walk rates that are alarming or need to be "fixed."!!!

    10. Doc, I hope you're right and, as always, he's one of our own now and I want to believe they will help him with his command or control issue.

      Let's just forget the word 'fix' - this from your own June 5, 2014 comment, right after the draft:

      In case you think the teams that let him drop know something the Giants don't, remember Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner! The Giants are the ones who know what they are doing! They obviously think his command issues are behind him or that they can fix them. He could well be Timmy's replacement when Tim's contract is up after 2015.

      I would go with 'fix' or 'help him with control issue.' Either is fine. In case, maybe he can still succeed at that walk rate or better, once he goes through his development

    11. Yes, I said that then in a snap take on the pick. After giving it more study, I am more and more convinced that there really is nothing that needs to be "fixed" other than continuing a normal development path. The whole command thing has been blown way out of proportion!

    12. Let's hope he develops and I share your optimism.

    13. I don't think the Giants and Dick Tidrow are the miracle workers with pitcher's they've sometimes been made out to be, but they have a solid track record of developing and nurturing pitching, both at the minor league and major league levels. There is always risk in even the highest draft picks. I am convinced that Tyler Beede was the BPA when the Giants selected him at #14 overall. Whatever happens going forward is on him and the Giants pitching coaches. I think there is a great chance that he will be the next great Giants pitcher to come out of their farm system, if Kyle Crick doesn't beat him to it.

    14. I agree.

      There are no sure things in life, but our team has a good track record.

      Check out Caleb Smith with his hairdo. I hope he makes it.

    15. They're definitely due. Isn't Madbum the last Giants drafted arm to stick? I guess Wheeler counts

    16. I was following the draft and I was fully expecting the Giants to take Touki, but I trust the Giants draft experts on this one. The Dbacks are getting praise heaped on them for taking a chance on the upside of Touki, but as Dr. B has pointed out, Beede's upside is not much less than Touki's, if even. And Beede is further along in the development process. The Dbacks are a pretty miserable team right now and could be a number of years away from being competetive again, so they can afford to take it slow with Touki if necessary. The Giants are currently legit contenders and their window of opportunity of being good is still fairly open but maintaining their strong starting rotation is going to be of tantamount importance in the near future. I don't see anything wrong with taking the highest upside college arm that was still on the board in Beede. This season has been a stark reminder of the fragility of the young pitching prospect and pitchers in general. Touki is a long way from the majors... a lot can happen: injury, loss of velocity, stagnation in development, problems adjusting to professional baseball. Not to say that any of those things could not happen to Beede, but he has faced a higher level of competition and has been exposed to some adversity and criticism already. He has been described as a great teammate and the "life of the clubhouse," to which we may draw whatever conclusion we may, but certainly sounds like a positive take on him. The selection of Beede certainly fits the Giants' MO of picking high upside players who have fallen out of favor for whatever reason(s). And we have seen that they do have a favorable track record when doing so.

    17. BJunk, agree with your "needs" context call on drafting Beede over Touki. The Giants don't need a potential ace starter five years from now. They need 1-3 starters stepping in by 2016. That is assuming they have to move on from Voggie and Huddy (age/performance) and Timmy (cost/performance).

      That's why I think they went for Beede over Touki. If Wheeler was here or any of the other AA/AAA starters had panned out from the last couple of years, then they would have had the depth to draft Touki and wait. And this year none of the AA/AAA studs we love have laid down solid starter numbers, yet. So the Giants got the guy that could be a starter in 2016, Beede.

      I'm okay with this call by the Giants.

    18. I do not think drafting Beede has anything to do with what's going on right now in the farm system or with any perceived organizational needs other than to get the best darn player available in the draft.

      BTW, check out Chris Stratton's line tonight.

    19. DocB, got to disagree on your BPA comment here. The Giants and most teams pick the BPA who meets their team needs and who can be signed within budget. This especially true for the #1 pick, where you have your one real chance to pick a projectable player who could make it.

      The libertarian ideal of BPA, is often spouted, easy to rally around, but rarely true. On the draft board every targeted player is ranked, not only for BPA potential, but also based upon signability, organizational drafting strategy (see Giants pitching, up the middle players. more college over HS youts, relievers even in early rounds), and MLB team needs.

      The fact is the Giants project needing 1-3 starting pitchers in 2106. So yes, I do believe they did draft to their most critical need with their first pick - a step-in starter in 2016. Both Beede and Touki had BPA status at #14. Touki may turn out to be the HS stud of the decade, his BPA ceiling is very high. BUT, only Beede could be projected to be step-in starter in 2016. The Giants made a BPA pick who, yes, meets their timetable needs. Good on them.

    20. We will have to agree to disagree on that one. Signability is always a consideration, but the new draft rules have really blunted that. Most players now sign quickly for at or near slot. I believe that Beede was the highest guy on the Giants draft board in terms of ceiling and probability of reaching it. I do not believe that MLB needs were a consideration.

    21. Well if Beede slots in as a starter in 2016, we should both be very happy!

    22. Actually if Touki floats a 3MM bonus demand there might have been trouble. This is worth watching, because the Vanderbilt commit is pretty legendary. It would be frickin' hilarious if that was the reason Toronto passed - they could have re-drafted Beede btw, he did sign a waiver. That would most likely be enough to edge Kevin Towers out of the big seat. The Giants have more cashish than usual but they can't really go meet a 3MM bonus demand. They'll give Beede straight slot though, no doubt.

  3. This may be wishful thinking, but do you think that Beede compares well to Max Scherzer?

    1. He gets traded to the Tigers? Mano...

    2. I think Shankbone was making a joke. Sure, any big, hard throwing(mid-90's) RHP with strikeout stuff would be a good comp to Beede.

    3. Yep, a joke. The NL West has had a few back to back to back pitcher comps. The D-backs have traded away most of theirs. The Rockies have busted. The Dodgers and Giants have reaped benefits.

      We get to do it again now: Freeland, Beede, Touki, Holmes - the Pads didn't make it a trifecta, they took Trea Turner before the run. If only they took Newcomb! I have to say I'm a lot happier with Beede than I would have been with Newcomb. I also like Beede more than the first 3 righties off the board. Just got too hopped up on Touki.

      This Mark Reyes character is looking good. I think the Giants drafted a couple of guys they liked better when they showed up to scout. Sam Hilliard at Crowder looked pretty good to me, he lasted until the 31st round, might be a bonus demand guy. Similarly, Mitch Hart and Webb faced off against each other - the Giants take a chance on Webb in the 4th, draft Hart late with bonus demands outside their bankroll.

    4. Reyes' numbers look A-OK. Led his team to a state title back in high school, 17-k outing in the championship. Low-90's fastball back then, I'm hoping that's ticked up a couple notches in the years since.

    5. MLB has Seth Harrison listed as a senior but he's actually a junior. Pretty interesting look. I like that team a lot, Jace Conrad looked good from the stats side, he went a little later in the draft. I think the Giants had a nice solid draft.

  4. Lot of time to talk about Beede later. I thought the Giants did their usual good job of shaking the tree for scouting profiles that might have a shot at the show. I don't think they draft Crownover there if they don't think they can make it work, that's pretty exciting. Luis Lacen is already signed, that is pretty exciting. The ideal height of a Gigante prospect is apparently 6'4. I liked Hunter Cole and Nick Sabo late. Curious if they can land one of the HS guys in the 30s, my bet would be on Tim Susnara out of St. Francis but don't sleep on Hunter Williams, who they actually listed as a LHP.

    1. Susnara would be a sweet grab. His swing/body impress me more than John Riley, and I like(d) that guy a lot. Where did you hear about Lacen? Is BA posting signings?

    2. I haven't been looking at BA very often. I imagine they will do their usual bonus info (which is good, but not always totally accurate, I corrected 2 of the signings last year). Lacen I saw from his twitter, no $ info yet.

    3. He looks like an interesting kid. Maybe some growing up needs to take place... but you can probably say that about all 17 year olds.