Most baseball fans pay no attention at all to the annual amateur draft. Of those who do, most pay no attention at all to Day 3 when the vast majority of drafted players have never been heard of before by even the most obsessed of draft watchers. This year, a small minority of Giants draft watchers, posting mostly out of another more well known blog, are declaring this to be a terrible draft by the Giants, mostly due to a perception on their part of an extremely poor Day 3.
Major league ballplayers sometimes come out of the later rounds of the draft. Over the years, the Giants have had their share of successes from these rounds. Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson come immediately to mind. Overall, though, the percentage of players drafted in rounds 16-40 who go on to a significant MLB career is in the low single digits or less. I wonder how many draft watchers picked out Romo, Sanchez or Wilson and said, "oh, great job of drafting there, Giants!"?
With that, and with reasonable expectations of what we are going to find, let's break down day 3 of the Giants 2012 draft by round:
16. Ian Gardeck, RHP, Alabama. Juco transfer who was the 8'th round draft pick of the White Sox last year. Had a 98 MPH FB with a plus-plus slider in JC, but was wild this spring and didn't see enough action to get a good scouting report. Project for the Pitcher Whisperers.
17. Chris Johnson, Jr, RHP, Portland. 4-4, 3.08, 76 IP, 21 BB's, 57 K's. 6'4", 195 lbs. No scouting report. Has nice size and decent stats from a good program.
18. Matt Duffy, SS, Long Beach State. .244/.336/.289. 6'2", 170 lbs. LBSU has a long history of being strong at SS. From his numbers, I'd guess Duffy's contribution is more on defense although LBSU has a very pitcher friendly home park. Hit .266 and led his team in RBI's in 2011.
19. Randy Zeigler, LHP, Louisiana- Monroe. Zeigler was Louisiana-Monroe's Friday starter. Doesn't always have great command, but can generate swinging strikes with a FB that goes 87-91 with late run plus a slider and change. 5-7, 3.69, 112.1 IP, 56 BB, 111 K's.
20. Mitch Delfino, Jr, INF/RHP, Cal. .355/.413/.485, 5 HR. 6'3", 209 lbs. No pitching stats listed in the Cal website even thought he's listed as a 2 way player.
21. Ben Turner, C, Missouri. .284/.373/.353. 6'4", 220 lbs. No power for a guy of his size. Draws walks with low K's.
22. Brennan Metzger, Sr, OF, Long Beach State. .302/.405/.407, 2 HR, 11 SB. LBSU's leadoff hitter and top BA. Drew 22 BB's against just 14 K's.
23. Drew Leenhouts, Sr, LHP, Northeastern. 6'3", 200 lbs. 7-3, 3.93, 91.2 IP, 35 BB, 87 K's.
24. Andrew Cain, Sr, OF, UNC Wilmington. 6'6", 222 lbs. .322/.416/.523, 12 HR, 23 SB. Big dude who is athletic enough to have been his team's starting CF and steal 23 bases in 26 attempts. How can you not love taking a flyer on a guy like this in round 24?
25. Sam Eberle, Sr. 3B/C, Jacksonville State. 6'0, 215 lbs. .359/.469/.579, 8 HR, 39 BB, 22 K's.
26. Mason McVay, LHP, Florida International. Big(6'7", 240 lbs) LHP. TJ alumnus who moved to FIU's bullpen and posted a 3.36 ERA with 72 K's in 64 IP. Hit 94 last year but sat in the 87-90 range this spring. Secondary pitches are "fringy" and he walked 41 batters, but LHP with his size, velocity and K's are always in demand.
27. Chris Fern, Jr.,LHP, Union(KY). 6'4", 235 lbs. 7-1, 2.47, 76.2 IP, 17 BB, 72 K's. Gotta love the size and stat line.
28. Chris Rapp, 1B/OF, Louisiana-Monroe. Rapp hit 9 HR's for the Sun Belt Conference champs. He's been drafted twice before out of JC ball. .322/.418/.527, 9 HR, 7 SB.
29. Shayne Houck, Sr., OF, Kutztown(PA). .329/.473/.588, 9 HR. Ryan Vogelsong's school. Houck holds most of the school offensive career records. Played 3B in college.
30. Michael Blanchard, OF, Austin Peay State. Blanchard has "top of the scale speed" but his "feel for hitting is short." .290/.405/.379, 2 HR, 45 BB's, 63 K's, 16 SB, 4 CS in 248 AB. You can teach a fast guy how to steal bases. You can't teach the speed. K's a lot, but also draws a lot of walks and appears to have enough power to keep pitchers honest.
31. Jason Forjet, Sr, RHP, Florida Gulf Coast. Smallish RHP. 2-4, 3.01, 95.2 P, 22 BB, 83 K.
32. Chris Pickering, Sr, LHP, Rhode Island. 7-7, 5.73, 86.1 IP, 35 BB, 51 K's. OK, I'll concede that this one might be a throw away pick, but it's getting late.
33. Brandon Farley, Sr. RHP, Arkansas State. 6'2", 200 lbs. 2-4, 5.30, 37.1 IP, 14 BB, 40 K's. K/9>9 with a low walk rate? Why not take a chance at #33?
34. Zach Edgington, LHP, UCSB. 2-2, 3.35, 80.2 IP, 35 BB, 56 K's.
35. Daniel Grazzini, RHP, San Mateo JC. 6'3", 195 lbs. 3-0, 16.2 IP, 3 BB, 17 K's.
36. Clint Terry, LHP, San Mateo JC. 7-2, 74.2 IP, 24 BB, 56 K's. 6'2", 195 lbs.
37. Drew Jackson, SS, HS. Younger brother of Cubs prospect Drew Jackson. Premium defensive OF, but scouts aren't sure about the bat. Has a commitment to Stanford, so you have to think he'll be going to school.
38. Nolan Long, RHP, HS. 6'9", 225 lbs. 88 MPH FB smooth delivery. Committed to Rhode Island and leaning toward going to school, but says he will listen to Giants scouts.
39. Kevin Fagan, 2B, HS. .495 BA, 11 HR, 20 SB. 6'0", 175 lbs. Committed to Stetson.
40. Tyler Ferguson, RHP, HS. Ferguson is big(6'4", 210 lbs). FB went 94 early in the spring but declined to 88-90 later. Committed to Vanderbilt and reportedly wants to be a physician, so you have to think he will be going to school.
So, there it is. You can make up your own mind based on the limited information we have on these players. Does anyone think Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez or Brian Wilson would have stood out in this list? When you have a guy as projectable as Blanchard at #30, I'm really not sure what some people think they are going to get down here in the draft that's better than that. Same can be said of a Mason McVay at #26 or an Andrew Cain at #24.
I have no problem with the Giants Day 3 draft. In fact, I think it has quite a few very intriguing players considering the odds across all of baseball for these draft slots.
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I read that Ian Gardeck was the #1 Juco player in the the country for 2011 and was drafted in the 8th round, but elected to go to Alabama instead of signing. He probably should have signed, but the Giants may have got a gem here late in the draft. I love this pick! Anytime that the scouts (Perfect Game) think you are the top option of any classification and your team can draft him on the 3rd day that is a definite win for the organization.
ReplyDeleteLastly, I really hope they can sign Nolan Long (6 foot 9 inches, wow) and Kyle Fagan away from school because that would give this draft a little something extra to dream on.
Go Giants.
John Sickels was impressed with the Giants draft, because of the position the giants were drafting and the amount of money they had. Matt Garrioch thinks Ryan Tella was a really good hitter picked up in the 11th Round and Drew Jackson if the giants could get him signed if not could be a top 3 round in 3 years. Ian Gardeck big time sleeper. Sickels also mentioned Chris Stratton as the possible steal of the draft, I remember last year he said the same thing about Boston's Matt Barnes (he's really doing well) so I trust him. In overall am changing my grade from C- to a B-, am still disappointed with the hitting and the lack of upside. Going thru the minors I see teams with a bunch of HS hitters in their farm who are promising while the giants only have Tommy Joseph, that has to change.
ReplyDeleteCan you name some of those teams with more promising HS hitters than the Giants who also drafted near the same slots or below?
DeleteAm not talking about this draft but others. Teams like Yankees, Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati, Kansas have promising HS bats in their system (Tyler Austin, Mason Williams, Gavin Cecchini, Nick Castellanos, Wil Myers, Daniel Fields, Max Stassi, Brandon Jacobs, Sean Coyle, Ryan Brett), all of these guys were drafted after the 3rd Round some between the 8th-12th rounds so theres no excuse that the Giants could not get them, the problem is either the Giants don't like to spend if is not a top 10 pick or they just prefer college players. And right now all those college hitters that the Giants drafted instead of these guys are struggling and performing worse (Panik, Brown, Dominguez)
DeleteFirst of all, none of those guys have reached the majors yet. Secondly, we're back to the same old tired argument about teams that have made it a strategy to go well over slot for expensive HS talent that drops to them. That was a legitimate strategy in prior years, but went out the window this year with the new, tighter slot rules. You are comparing apples and oranges. If you want to complain about the past go ahead. The Giants did go over slot for HS talent here and there, but they were never going to go whole hog for that strategy even in the Neukom years. There just isn't any point in moaning about it. Wasn't going to happen.
DeleteThis year had completely different rules which essentially prohibit doing what the Tigers did with Castellanos. In this case, it's not just the Giants, it's everybody. The rules just don't allow it any more!
My issue with the draft is strictly the sequence of drafting college sr's, and then suddenly drafting a bunch of HS. I recognize that the players they drafted are intriguing. But the question is whether it is really true that at the time when they drafted each of these players, there was no JC or HS player that is more intriguing than the player they ultimately drafted. Having said that, I am a huge fan of Sabes, Barr, Evan and Tidrow, so this is more an academic question for me than anything else.
ReplyDeleteOver at McC, there is a fanpost tracking the signing by the Giants (based on rumors). Apparently, Ian Gardeck has already signed. I think that the number of HS/JC players signing contracts will be far higher than expected.
Anon #1
The Giants have always drafted a few HS players at the end of the draft. A few sign, most don't. I question whether there is a higher rate of success for signable HS players after round 4 or 5 than college players. The overall success rate below round 15 is so low, I highly doubt it.
DeleteI would like someone to point out 1 HS player from Day 3 who signs that they can say, "there, that would have been a better pick than the Giants made."
#Royals have signed 21st-round pick and LHP Matt Strahm for $100K. Strahm was a #Nebraska signee.
DeleteOK, tell us what Strahm has that makes him a better pick than Delfino in round 20.
DeleteSignability Guys (Either HS or JC players with leverage)
ReplyDeleteI count McCall, Tella, Hollick, Leonaro Rojas, Daniel Grazzini, Clint Terry, Drew Jackson, Nolan Long, Kevin Fagan, and Tyler Ferguson.
Of those ten guys, five of them are Bay Area guys. So the Giants could be trying to leverage being the hometown team into a certain value? It has to be worth something right? When you have an unmovable budget you have to look at other sources of value.
I read that SS Matt Duffy hit .346 in the Cape Cod League last year and even made the All Star team which the coaches pick.. Maybe that might have sparked the Giants interest.. OF Andrew Cain was an unsigned 12th round pick in 2011, he sounds athletic with + speed... I agree very intriging if his hitting catches up to his athetic ability... Thanks for posting this, I'm usually not interested much in the 3rd day picks unless a Hawaii player is selected!
ReplyDeleteI may be in the minority, but I like this draft overall.. I won't assign a grade at this point..
LG
Good to know about Duffy. That certainly casts that pick in a different light. The Giants scout the Cape Cod League heavily and have always put a great deal of stock in it. LBSU plays in a notoriously pitcher friendly league and ballpark. It's kind of the Eastern League and Norwich of college baseball. What looks like a terrible batting line for a college hitter there may actually be pretty good.
DeletePeople who are writing Day 3 off just because they see a bunch of Sr. next to the names are not drilling down far enough to see that there is reason for optimism with a lot of these picks. Most of them, of course, will not amount to much as that is the cold hard reality of the numbers for late round draft picks, but most of these guys have something in their resume that stands out. If that can be harnessed or refined a bit, you have yourself a real gem.