The travel day gives us a chance to reflect and revel in the great pitching duel from last night. In thinking about Matt Cain's last 2 starts, I became convinced that he might have broken a record, or at least come very close to breaking one for fewest baserunners in 2 consecutive 9 inning starts. I asked the question several times in various websites. Finally got a response from another commenter on Fangraphs: Cain missed the record by 1 baserunner. Cain allowed 4 baserunners in 2 consecutive 9 inning starts. There are 3 record holders with 3 baserunners allowed and they were pretty good pitchers and not at all recent: Billy Pierce, Howard Ehmke and the Big Train himself, Walter Johnson! Matt Cain's last 2 starts are right there with the two consecutive best in the entire history of baseball and we all got to witness it in one way or another! How great is that?
Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece for Fangraphs on the pitching duel, Cliff Lee and Matt Cain Pitch Into History. Sure enough, some idiot(not Dave) had to post a comment about how he thought Cain's xFIP went UP in last night's game. Just like I predicted. At least it wasn't a Fangraphs writer! I actually think the guy who wrote might have meant it as satire, but when I played along with the gag by saying "He's gonna regress any game now," someone else jumped down my throat acting like I was a stupid idiot who didn't understand the Cain is not going to continue pitching shutouts every game.
Eno Sarris wrote a post on Fangraphs, Brandon Belt Singles Past Straw Men, in which he erects a forest of straw men to theorize that Belt's one AB last night, that's right, one AB, is a microcosm of why the FreeBelt crowd is right and Giants management is wrong. A popular sentiment out there is that the Giants have to play Belt every day, either in the majors or in Fresno. I have subscribed to that theory myself at times, but have come to believe the Giants may be handling him just right. Belt is not going to develop by playing every day mired in a deep slump, becoming more frustrated with every game. He also is not going to develop by hitting .400 against vastly inferior pitching in Fresno. Baseball is full of players who started their careers in reserve roles and played their way into starting gigs. Bochy is good at putting players into positions where they are more likely to succeed. Give Belt his chances. When he does good, reinforce it. When he messes up, use it as a teaching moment, but let him continue to soak up the MLB atmosphere and rub shoulders with and learn from other MLB players and coaches. Just calm down everybody! Brandon Belt is going to be fine and so are the Giants.
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I think this comment is the most intelligent thing I have read anywhere this year: "...have come to believe the Giants may be handling him just right. Belt is not going to develop by playing every day mired in a deep slump, becoming more frustrated with every game. He also is not going to develop by hitting .400 against vastly inferior pitching in Fresno. Baseball is full of players who started their careers in reserve roles and played their way into starting gigs. Bochy is good at putting players into positions where they are more likely to succeed. Give Belt his chances. When he does good, reinforce it. When he messes up, use it as a teaching moment, but let him continue to soak up the MLB atmosphere and rub shoulders with and learn from other MLB players and coaches." Why is it so difficult for people to accept we are all rank amatuers, with absolutely no personal contact with any of the real participants. Thanks Doc. Your site is one of the best.
ReplyDeleteMatt Cain is the only pitcher in the live ball era (since 1918) to have two starts with 9 or more innings pitched, allowing 2 or fewer hits and 1 or fewer walks in his team's first 27 games of the season. With his next starts scheduled against the mediocre Reds and the sad Padres, he's got a shot at having the best April any pitcher has ever had by some interpretations of the numbers.
ReplyDelete-S.F.Giangst
I have to agree with allfrank. I've been reading this website every day the past few years since the 8th post only commenting a few times recently. And I must say, this is the best website for a Giants fan. Thanks for all the effort you put in.
ReplyDelete-Jake
Allfrank and Jake,
ReplyDeleteThank you for the kind words. Like I say in the statement of purpose, the purpose of this blog is to chronicle my thoughts on San Francisco Giants baseball. I'm glad there are people like you who find that worth reading.
S.F.Giangst,
Matt Cain's last two starts are definitely some of the most remarkable pitching I've ever witnessed and I go all the way back to the Marichal/Koufax/Gibson days. I remember listening to a game last year where he dominated the Nationals in a very similar way. Cain has been patiently working on making himself a better pitcher every year for over 6 years now. He's just now entering what are often the prime years of a player's career. As long as he stays healthy, we may be about to witness one of the great peak runs any pitcher has ever had. The stuff leading up to it hasn't been at all bad either.
This site is great. I check it every morning. Lots of good, insightful stuff. And, like any blog of any quality, I appreciate it when there is healthy debate on a topic or two. It is in that spirit that I respectfully disagree with your view on Belt.
ReplyDeleteFirst, we have had nearly 700 plate appearances from Huff to confirm (ad nauseum) that he will likely never again deliver even average production for the first base position. In fact, by some measures I believe he has provided the weakest 1B production of ANY player in baseball over the last season +.
Easing Belt in is fine, but it appears from where I sit there is no plan. Bochy is flying by the seat of his pants on this one. Some bad ABs to open the season, then Bochy goes directly against his own stated intentions and gives Belt no starts in one of the best hitters parks in baseball. He gets one start in the Pirate series and then Bochy (you know, the guy who is bring Belt along) gives him one start against the Phillies - facing Halladay. Huff starts against Blanton. Belt does deliver a big hit in the series final, while facing a very tough lefty.
While Belt is getting too few ABs, Huff is just not doing much - and from this fans perspective there is very little upside. The Huff of 2010 is a memory only, that ship has sailed. Huff is a very average defender and base runner, two areas where Belt is clearly superior.
Belt has gone three for his last eight and has a .444 OBP over that stretch.
We will see what happens in N.Y.
Scott - you make some very good points. I don't think we know if Huff's ship has sailed yet. I think the Giants need to make sure of that before they can make any moves.
DeleteThe way Bochy handles Belt, especially the choices of pitchers faced can be strange. The prime example for me is last August - he wins the Dodger game single handedly, the next day K's twice against Kershaw (no great shakes - Kershaw buzzsawed the whole lineup), and then hits the bench.
I do think Belt shouldn't buy into the twitter crowd. He should keep his powder dry, keep Will Clark's words close. "Get you a pitch to hit..."
Scott, I suspect we won't know they are 'handling him just right,' until it's over and maybe not even then.
DeleteWe fans want to be supportive of the team, which is both management and players.
Proximity to the situation and baseball knowledge give the benefit of the doubt to management, but there is something not quite right about the 'chi' from this. You sat a guy, the only guy, down 5 games after 3 tough losses to open the season against the team you need to beat for the division, well, it makes one wonder... What do you, the decision maker, think it would be perceived by the public?
It doesn't have to be everyday full time job - part time playing is understandable. Just one start in Colorado would have been nice, though not necessarily 'right,' since no one, not us fans nor management, really knows.
I think it is quite possible that Huff may be skating on thinner and thinner ice with Bochy as we speak. Whenever he crashes through, we'll see Belt getting another opportunity which he will need to grab by the throat.
DeleteThe Giants have now their last 3 series. Why is it so essential that they have to have a plan for Belt that's different from the obvious plan to win enough games to get back in the playoffs and maybe win another WS?
Don't know what happened, maybe something funky with blogger. Here it is again:
ReplyDeleteThis was framed up on MCC well: "It’s one those things were you can argue that the Giants didn’t make a mistake. If Belt crashes, well it’s because he always going to crash. If he succeeds, the Giants did the right thing!" On the flip side: "It’s one those things were you can argue that the Giants did made a mistake. If Belt crashes, well it’s because the Giants screwed him up. If he succeeds, he did so in spite of the Giants trying to screw him up!" (Chris Quick from Bay City Ball pointing out a stereotypical "apologist" view and Goofus countering with the FreeBelt line. Both comments were a nice broad outline of the battle lines, in my viewpoint, and were pointing out the absurdity of the situation. Goofus called himself "Belt Neutral", a new term I've seen a couple times now.
DrB - I have to take issue with your description of Eno Sarris' article. He was using the 1 AB as a tongue in cheek lead in to the article. You are being very obtuse about that fact. He made 4 main points: Platoon Issue, Batting Stance Issue, Patience, and Experience. The first 3 issues he cited recent articles with quotes from Giants management or their message on Belt. It has been painfully inconsistent, that message. Not their strongpoint for sure.
I enjoyed the article, and didn't think it was the usual fangraphs hackjob on the Giants. I also think you and OGC were both putting the FreeBelt arguments onto Sarris, which was unfair. He made very specific points with media references, and I agree with those points. I am not sure about his overall conclusion that Belt should play every day or that he is better than Huff right now. I don't think anybody can comment on that with true authority.
You and OGC were sharpening your knives, I stepped in very deliberately to your thread, because it was getting ugly. Schierholz may indeed be a key to this, his shaky spring training opened the door. Bochy has to juggle 3 lefty hitters (along with 2 switch hitters who trend lefty and a 4th OF who is also lefty) for 2-3 positions. I think fans need to back off of him, and give it some time. Belt may not be up for 500 ABs. Huff may not be up for 400 ABs. Schierholtz has never played more than 362 PAs (last year). As I pointed out there, the Greybeards and injuries have both cut PT with Nate the Great.
Fair or not, Belt does have to hit when given the opportunity. He's only had 23 PAs so far, with those 7 Ks really magnifying. Let's let that breath a bit. You were getting into some serious bash Belt stuff at the end of those comments. Huff getting subbed out in the 6th is one way to deal with this. The Giants need the first 2 months to see what they've got. Huff deserves just as much time as Belt does. I hope somebody can step in and manage fans expectations better though. Not the Giants strong point. If Bochy isn't going to play Belt, he needs to not say "he'll be in there". What are fans supposed to do but be pissed off if he says one thing and then does another? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt right now, its a damn long season.
Sarris did, in fact, write a hack job on the Giants. There were clearly extenuating circumstances surrounding Belt's AB Wednesday night that make his "4 main points" all straw men. His point was that in that one AB, the Giants proved that all the concerns they've expressed about Belt are basically lies. Sorry, but I take issue with that. One AB in a very unusual game and situation does not prove that the Giants are inconsistent with Belt or that they have no plan any more than getting a hit in that one AB proves Belt is a geat hitter.
Deletei dont like belt and i dont care what the team does with him
ReplyDeleteplay pill
thank you
I hope Pill, Belt and Huff all be successful.
DeleteThank you.
As Scott says above, the Giants have no plan when it comes to Belt.
ReplyDeleteAnd Doc, c'mon, do you really think the Giants handling of Belt even vaguely suggest they have a plan? Really? You seem to just be rationalizing what is happening after the fact.
The Giants are concerned with winning today. Players like Belt (or Nate) are given small/medium windows of opportunity to perform. And, as has been repeated, neither has performed consistently enough during those windows. Bochy, quickly enough, moves on to the next thing. The hot hand. And what Belt proponents are saying is give the guy a low-pressure (batting 7th in the order) opportunity without having to think an 0-5 with 3 Ks is going to land you on the bench. Opportunity, for more than 3 games.
The criticism of the Giants is not about players getting chances. It's about what kind of chances they are provided. And, for me, I'll take it a step further and say that the Giants have almost no ability to tailor the program to individual players, and consider a player's mental makeup. And that's important.
The Pierzynski trade. Yeah, it was a questionable trade on talent. Acceptable at the time. But, for me, the problem was that the Giants did not take into account who Pierzynski is and how he would fit in with the Giants. That's the problem. Pierzinski is solid backstop. Who is also kind of a d!ck. His personality works just fine in an Ozzie Guillen kind of a zoo. Not here. The mistake is the Giants didn't consider the player.
You get a guy like Belt, 5th round choice with a chance to be a solid MLB starter, and you're playing with house money. And the Giants are doing their best to squander it.
I would certainly hope the Giants are concerned about winning today. They have a legitimate chance to win another WS. Bochy's job is to put the team on the field that he thinks has the best chance of winning that game. When you lose the first 3 games of the season and your two strongest competitors are breaking out of the gate, you really can't afford to let guys work it out. It's a long season, but history has shown that if you fall too far behind in the first couple of weeks, it can be very tough to come back from. The way the season started added urgency to Bochy's mandate to to put the best team on the field each night and Belt was one guy who wasn't getting it done.
DeleteThe Giants world does not revolve around having a plan for Belt. It revolves around getting back to the playoffs and thus a chance to win it all. While you don't kill off your future to do that, it is still the priority. Be patient! Belt sitting for 5 games isn't really all that long. Bochy has shown time and again that his doghouse isn't very big and after you've sat in it a few games, he'll bring you back for another try.
You're right they don't and shouldn't make their world revolve around having a plan for Belt.
DeleteBut Belt wasn't the only guy not getting it done after those 3 games.
Doc, I'm sorry, but I just think you are wrong on this one. Bochy's intentions are good, but I believe he often falls short when it comes to handling young position players.
DeleteAs for Bochy's job, I disagree there too. In a 162 game season the manager MUST, if he wants to be successful, weight short term interests against long term gain. Bochy's job is to get the Giants into the playoffs, that's his job. He will handle the bench and the line-up,and the bullpen according to circumstances he encounters. If it's a blowout he will handle substitutions and pitching changes differently from a one-run game.
We have had over 700 plate appearances from Huff to tell us what we can expect. Yes, Huff has had down years before, but never when he was 35. And, he is trending down. He is a sub par base runner and defender.
There is reason to believe Belt can provide more. It's no sure thing, but from where I sit it seems Belt is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to provide less than Huff.
im sorry, but belt was the only one who k'd 5x out of 10 plate appearances
Deletesee...the book is out on him and he still hasnt figured it out
i usually root for the kids, but he is like linden
and in 5 years...he will be in the indy leagues
the scouts are wrong...hes a stiff...PLAY PILL
That would be five out of his first 11 plate appearances.
DeleteBy that reasoning he should certainly be playing, as he is 3 for his last 8 with two walks. And I misspoke in an earlier post, Belt has a .500 OBP over that stretch.
BTW, I feel Pill should be getting more ABs as well.
Pill is in the line-up tonight
DeleteBelt wasn't the only one not getting it done, but he was the most glaring hole in the lineup, by far. The other ones not getting it done were the pitchers.
DeleteYes, it is a 162 game schedule and the manager does have to pace himself. That was something Alou never seemed to be able do and Bochy has been much better at. When you lose the first 3 out of the gate to the D'Backs, though, and the Dodgers win their first 4, you better start winning and winning soon or the season will be over before it's 2 weeks old. I'm pretty sure that urgency played a big part in Bochy's thinking, and appropriately so.
OK team. Time to settle down on this one. Belt is going to get his chances. I think he has a bright future and is going to play a big part in the Giants future. He's going to be fine and so are the Giants!
Over before its 2 weeks old??? Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my.
ReplyDeleteThis is the NL West, 2012. Not the American League circa 1927. Dodgers & D-Backs have holes. We do not have a 100-win team in this division.
(As I've said many times, thank you for the outstanding site. I'm not trying to provoke you. But I can not agree with such an amazingly quick course change, one that tells a young player with such potential that "We don't trust you.")
I'm with DrB and allfrank. The same bloggers who scorn small sample size, yet assume that managerial moves in the team's first dozen games set a pattern to fume about. Those who don't know the players at all have full confidence in how well they grasp those players' psyches, as opposed to a whole managerial/coaching staff who know the players, know who said what to whom, watch batting practice with experienced eyes, and deal daily with competitive young(ish)real or aspiring millionaires. Bochy, Wotus, Meulens--if they differ with these bloggers, mustn't they ipso facto be stupid, mired in a personal vendetta or rigid habit, or ignorant of statistical measures so public that even the bloggers know them. The guy whose lineup includes Crawford, Hector Sanchez, Sandoval, and Posey, not to mention young pitchers, has an inveterate bromance with veterans. And so on. What fans can most sensibly do, I think is try to figure out, as best they can, why management might rationally act as they are; and this, I believe, DrB does above. Rushed into the lineup too early last year, Belt is being eased along this year, with the assumption that next year, minus Huff, he will be the starter. How many deplore the treatment of Posey in 2009-10, with almost all bench in late 2009, some needed Fresno time in 2010, followed by time at 1B during which he got confidence at the plate and learned about NL batters, followed then by becoming the Giants' full-time catcher! That easing-in worked extremely well with Posey, however, and one may hope to see the same success, this season or next, with Belt.
ReplyDeleteDrb, thanks for the great work on your site.. Since you mention it in your post, my question is do the Giants seem unconventional to you in that they don't seem to believe in giving their good hitting prospects a lot of ABS in AAA? I kinda chuckle remembering the time when Sabean called AAA pitching inferior referring to Buster's AAA sucess.. I see other young hitters from other teams like Dustin Ackly for example getting over 500 abs in AAA..
ReplyDeleteThe season is too early to draw any conclusions, and I think the Belt situation will work itself out..
LG
I think Brian Sabean said it himself, "if Belt goes down to Fresno and hits .400, what does that prove?" or something to that effect.
ReplyDelete