Madison Bumgarner made it look easy against the Pathetic Padres popgun offense and the Giants RH hitting lineup came through with the run support. Key Lines:
Pablo Sandoval- 1 for 4, HR(4). BA= .311. Whether it's the Lasik procedure or a healed shoulder or both, Pablo is clearly seeing the ball better and getting better swings from the right side this year. This HR was his first XBH from the right side this year though.
Buster Posey- 1 for 3, 2B, BB. BA= .353. Buster plays 1B in the RH lineup configuration. The double was smoked up the alley in left-center. Buster was stranded after that, but started the insurance rally with a walk.
Brett Pill- 2 for 3, 2B. BA= .320. Not sure why some people think Belt or Nate are better options against LHP's than Brett Pill. He was smoking the ball today!
Joaquin Arias- 1 for 3, 3B. BA= .364. Arias might not be quite as surehanded at SS as Crawford, but he's a huge upgrade on Theriot, Burriss or Tejada/OCab from last year. Love the bat. He's still young enough and athletic enough to have a starting career ahead of him too. I'm thinking Arias is building some serious trade value here if not challenging Crawford's starting job.
Madison Bumgarner- 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 2.53. Just an afternoon at the office for Bumgarner who was in complete command the whole way.
Santiago Casilla- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's, Save(4). ERA= 1.04. Casilla always has a moment in his inning where he looks like he's about to come apart at the seems. The last two outings, he's managed to pull it together. Today, Hector Sanchez had to come out and talk him down a couple of times. Gotta be impressed by the way the rookie catcher came out and took charge of the situation and how Casilla responded.
The Merc writers over on Extra Giants are trying to stoke the discontent over Bochy's extreme platooning against LHP's. I have to say I think the angst and anger are way overblown here. Look team, Buster is not going to play 150 games behind the plate. When he's not catching, he's going to either have to play 1B or sit. Why not use the days they face LHP's to give him a blow from catching duties while taking advantage of his RH bat? I see absolutely no reason not to play Arias and The Riot in the MI against LHP's. That leaves the OF where Pagan and Melky are clearly going to play every day. That leaves 1 OF spot between Nate, Belt and Pill. With the way Pill is swinging the bat, I see no reason not to give him the nod in LF with Melky moving to RF. Sorry of that steps on the toes of your personal favorite player, but it makes a lot of sense, especially in light of how the Giants have struggled against LHP's through the spring, and even going back to last year.
The Dodgers blanked the Nats 2-0 to stay 4 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West. The Giants upped their record to 12-10 two games over .500 for the second time this season. The D'Backs topped the Marlins 8-4 to remain 5 games back of the Dodgers. The Rockies lost to the Mets 6-5 to slide 5.5 games off the pace. Of course the Pathetic Padres lost to the Giants and are now mired 9.5 games behind and in last place.
The Giants get tomorrow off then start a 3 games series against the Miami Marlins who will bring some bad memories for the Giants with them into the series. Matt Cain starts it off Tuesday night against Ricky Nolasco.
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Arias looks like he may be good enough to stick around and possibly give Craw a run for his money as the starter against both lefties and righties! I wonder if this means I have won my bet with Shankbone or if we need to let it ride a while longer before determining that Craw has lost the job as the clear cut starter...
ReplyDeletePill is a manbeast, someone else said it so I won't claim to be the first but he does look an awful lot like Pat the Bat in the batters box. If that kid had 400 AB's this year my guess is he would have around 60-70 RBI which is pretty solid.
We still haven't seen the leadoff approach from Pagan, part of it is that when he makes contact he usually hits the ball fair so he isn't able to see enough pitches to get walks which just reinforces the thought that maybe we need to try Blanco for a week or two at leadoff and see what happens.
2 out of 3 all year long and we will be in the playoffs. If we end up a wild card then I got no problem going up against any other team in the league in a one game playoff except LA and Kershaw which shouldn't be a problem because if we win the wild card then that probably means they won the division. Still very difficult for me to wrap my mind around how this team has gotten so good so fast. Their staff can't keep this up all year can they?
I think the Dodgers will come down to Earth, but they ain't going away. I think this is going to be typical NL West dogfight all the way.
DeleteA couple of factors why LA has been so good so fast. First off, strong helping of poor teams to play against to start the season. Still, good for them that they took care of business and won against them. But I would note that since that fast start, around .500 once they play actually good teams.
DeleteSecond of all, any team that gets 11 HRs from any hitter in their first 22 games are going to have a fast start, that is a lot of offense to get, above and beyond what they get from rest of lineup. But that's an 81 HR pace, I would not bet on Kemp keeping that up. He's also getting help from AJ Ellis' good hitting, where he wasn't that good before. This appears to be his first season starting, he walks a lot, but he should not be that good because he strikes out way too much, and there is no way a catcher is going to maintain a .389 BABIP if even Ichiro can't maintain that (.350 career), though he did have a couple of seasons in that range.
Third, Lilly and Capuano appear to be pitching over their heads right now. Lilly just doesn't strike out enough to maintain such a great ERA, and Capuano has extreme splits between home and road, and while he looks good enough to be a good guy in their rotation, he should not be able to maintain his current ERA pace given how poorly he has pitched on the road so far.
Hard for me to say whether they are here to stay or going away. They had Kemp and Kershaw last season and didn't do anything either. If Kemp raises a notch or two up, then they could be here to stay, but they really need Lilly and Capuano to continue doing well, to continue doing well themselves. Just look at how bad their lineup is outside of Kemp and Ethier, doing pretty poorly, bad as Giants last season.
The Dodgers came on pretty strong in the second half last year, no?
DeleteWow, did not realize that they were 40-28 in the second half of last season. Perhaps I wrote them off too much, I'll have to admit I was basing it on their season record, but that's a damn good second half, did not realize that.
DeleteStill, I think my points still stand for the most part. Kemp isn't going to continue to hit that well all season, nearly 1.400 OPS, that puts him in Bonds and Babe territory, at an 81 homer pace. And if Ellis does fall back to the back - his BABIP is too high - that's only two above average hitters with 6 average or worse hitters, the offense could start to sputter and die, even with Kemp and Ethier.
And Lilly and Capuano hasn't pitched this great in a while, and capuano's been extremely good in LA, horrible on the road.
Looking at the second half of 2011, Kemp had a number of hitters complementing him in the lineup, hitting mid 700 OPS and above: Loney, Gordon, Sands, Ellis, Riviera, Barajas. He's down to two right now, and Ellis probably will be knocked down by the BABIP gods any day soon.
Pitching, they had one great (Kershaw), two very good (Lilly and Kuroda), and a bunch OK (5th starters) and one bad (Billingsley). That seems doable in 2012, with Kershaw, then Billingsley and Lilly, then Capuano and Harang bringing up the rear.
So it seems down to hitting. I can see Riviera maybe rebounding to make up for the loss of Ellis' hot start, and he does have very nice peripherals, but the other starters don't look to me like they are going to be able to raise their batting lines up that significantly, and they are all struggling.
I think I'll take my chances on that, when they hit that bad patch of games in later May, they will fall back to the pack at that point, and see whether Kemp, Lilly and Capuano can continue playing over their heads like that.
Why aren't we talking about Arias as a starter at 2nd, instead of short?
ReplyDeleteI think for the time being we are going to see a straight platoon up the middle with Arias and The Riot going against LHP's and Crawford and Burriss against RHP's. That means that Crawford/Burriss will get about 75% of the starts.
DeleteI agree, Kelly. If Arias has some pop in his bat, let's get the weak-hitting Burriss out of there and put Joaquin at 2B.
DeleteGreat point Kelly. Arias as the 2B would be my first experiment if I was running things. The ability to clear the bases is kind of nice, as opposed to hoping for the single to squeeze through. The Vegas Odds on which slash line would be highest for Manny Burriss would be a pretty close call.
ReplyDeletePato - Nice point. Here's what I have on the bet: we have an injury bailout clause, and between the early problems with the sprained finger and now the falling on the elbow, even though the Giants said he was OK, I think Bochy is thankful for an excuse to rest him. Arias has impressed so far, he should get a shot at both spots. Don't think for a minute that Crawford isn't the superior SS though, that was a pretty generous infield single today instead of the Arias error. That bet is for 40 games, we have a little more to go. But I gave you the platoon odds, as long as it wasn't clearly a lefty/righty split. So it'll amp up for us the next 3 weeks.
Speaking of platoon splits - at some point Bochy needs to expose Belt to lefties and see what's what. He has a very nice slash line against lefties, but its only a 50 odd AB sample. Although I try to stay out of the pitchfork mob, I was upset Belt didn't get a quick nod in LF for his game winning ways. He has 9 starts so far this year, and he's hit safely in every game since the AZ series. 5Ks and 3BBs, 7 for 20. They need to get him in there, I hope Bochy isn't getting too stubborn about this.
I just don't get this notion that Belt has to play, whether it is to the detriment of winning that particular game or not. Hey, let's see what Belt can do in LF and against lefties, nevermind that Pill is mashing lefties. Belt needs to play, because he needs to play!!
DeleteThat's not entirely fair though. Belt has cut down on the strikeouts after the first series, he is driving the ball, and by stats metrics and scouts metrics he is the best man for the job. That has to be played out on the field of course. I don't think it would hurt the Giants chances to have one lefty in the lineup while the RHH shift is on with the other players. Bochy loves to "play the hot hand". All I can say to that is... Belt is a hot hand right now.
DeleteAnd Brett Pill is hitting .320. That's not a "hot hand?" Do you put put Posey on the bench when you want to rest his legs from the rigors of catching, or do you solve two problems at once by putting him at first base against LHP's? If Buster plays 1B, who catches besides Hector? That leaves just one place for Belt to play against LHP's, LF. Do you really think he's a better option in LF against LHP's than Brett Pill? And if Pill isn't playing LF and it comes down to a choice of LH hitting OF's, would you put Belt out there instead of Nate?
DeleteI do think the configuration Bochy put out there today has the best chance of winning while also give Buster a rest from squatting the whole game. The key to why all this falls into place is the fact that Buster is not going to catch every game and playing him at 1B against LHP's is going to get him the most AB's while giving his legs the rest they need.
Yes, Belt is a "hot hand", but there are other hot hands out there that also deserve PT. If Belt is sitting Tuesday night against a RHP, then the pitchfork mob will have something to complain about, but I don't think that's going to happen.
DeleteCome on DrB. Pill did not enter the game hitting 320, he was hitting .273. And he was coming off a 0 for 4 start 2 nights ago, despite the 2 errors where he reached base.
DeleteMy honest opinion on the LF Versus LHP? Yes, I think Belt is the better option. As I said above, you have to get the players you will depend on ABs against all sorts of pitchers.
Then you and I disagree. I think Pill is the better option in LF against LHP's. If not Pill, I would just go with the Melky in LF and Nate in RF to get the better defense.
DeleteI'm fine with the disagreement. I will point out you wanted Belt to get more PT a few days ago. Winning games is nice, but it does smooth over some bumps. How big those bumps are, we'll find out later. And its your blog, your rules, but you glossed over the fact Pill wasn't hitting 320, he was hitting 273 coming off an 0 for 4. Belt hasn't had an 0 for anything since opening weekend when starting.
DeleteBelt is getting more PT and will continue to get more.
DeleteAs for Pill's 0 for 4, I believe that I pointed out in my Game Wrap that even though his two on-base episodes were counted as errors, they were really forced errors because he hit the ball so hard. No, I'm not arguing that they should not have been scored as errors but I do believe those fielders would have made the plays had they not been hit so solidly. Yes, he was 0 for 4 but he had good AB's and hit the ball hard.
DrB - its always good to look inside the stats. As hardcore Giants fans we can do that easily. The hard hit balls by Pill is a good example of this. We also don't know what goes on in BP in the underground cages, who has a stiff back, etc. These things filter out sometimes but not all. The good point Dave Flemming makes is he is privy to all sorts of team information he has to sit on a lot of the time.
DeleteI do want to make the point a platoon isn't the most ideal situation. You want your best hitters facing all pitchers. These guys are both young, the season is long, and Bochy should be given some slack. The Giants do need to find out how much impact Belt's bat can have though, and 9 starts in 21 games isn't making the grade on that front.
Yes, you want your best hitters facing all pitchers. I would count Buster, Pablo and Melky in the group, not Belt yet.
DeleteOh, and for some reason, now that Huff is at least temporarily out of the picture, the pitchfork mob over at MCC is trying to bang down poor Hector's door!
ReplyDeleteI dive into gamethreads on occasion. Today I was reminded why its on occasion. I respect frustration with lineups to a degree. When you actively root for Brett Pill and Hector Sanchez to go 0 for 8 though, you've lost me. I spoke up today, and to my point about MCC - mixed crowd. Got some gruff about it, support as well. Apparently because Hector Sanchez didn't put up good numbers in AAA as a 21 year old last year he's the wrong man for the job. Bypassing my point about the bad form to root against your team. Cutting off your nose to spite your face. MCC - stick to the prospect hounds and the established stat heads. My ongoing odyssey with the joint is the best posters just don't bother enough. But my bad for expecting rational in a game thread.
DeleteHector has 30 odd ABs. The fear is Bochy is going to play him full time and move Buster to first, or playing on Bochy's silly comments today, play Hector himself at 1B. My point with Bochy is he'll say whatever he wants to get through the press junket. Watch his actions. Its a mixed bag, all managers are. More good than bad, but sure there are frustrations. I stand by my point every fan has a right to bitch about their GM and manager from time to time. Why the Giants fans get so worked up though...
So, Hector took some groundballs at first base? Anybody who has followed the Giants in the Sabean era and moreso in the Sabean/Bochy era knows the Giants are absolutely obsessed with versatility. I guarantee after Saturday night's game, Belt will get his chances.
DeleteThe Giants, and especially Bochy, will say a lot of things to get through an interview. That, and his predilection to attach "IE" to everything, will result in Sanchie (which one?, wait only one Sanchez on the damn roster?) taking ground balls at 1st.
DeleteI do think he is being stubborn about playing Belt though. He's getting a lot of grief from the Beat reporters and the twitter crowd, and the casual fans have picked up on it to some degree. I don't know if he cares much. You have to have a thick skin to manage. I appreciate that. I also think he's wrong in this instance.
If Belt sits on Tuesday with a RHP starting, then I will be forced to agree with you that Bochy must have some issue with playing Belt. Until that happens, then I don't agree. Belt has goten his chances to play and will continue to get them, IMO.
DeleteSince the AZ series it breaks down like this: sits the entire CO series. Plays 1 of 3 PIT (1 for 3, BB, 2B; Corriea starting). Plays 1 of 3 PHI (1 for 3, BB, 2K; Doc H starting); also goes 1-2 pinch hitting, scores winning run in 3rd game of series. Plays 1 of 4 NYM (1 for 4, 2B; Batista starting); 1 for 3 in late inning/PH role, that fluke "2B" in the game we lost when Buster threw the ball away. Plays 2 of 3 CIN (3 for 7, BB, 3K; Latos & Bailey starting). Plays 1 of 3 SD (1 for 3, 2 RBI 2b; Bass starting).
DeleteAces (Doc H/Latos), scrubs (Batista/Correia maybe) and in between. 9 starts in 22 games. 278/366/389. No huge SLG numbers yet, 4 doubles (1 not very well earned but these things balance out), 5 BB and 11K (5 in the first series along with 1 BB).
I'm not taking Ricky Nolasco as a barometer for whether Bochy has an issue. We have 3 straight righties coming: Nolasco/Zambrano/Sanchez. With a pattern of ditching Belt for 2 of the 3 games so far, if Belt is in the lineup for 2 of the 3 games against righties, I'll agree with you he's getting his chances to play. 3 and I'll even be happy. 1 out of 3, and we'll see, maybe there will be mitigating circumstances.
I predict Belt will be the starting 1B for at least 2 and possibly all 3 games of the Marlins' series. The only thing that might change it is if he looks horrible at the plate in game 1.
DeleteI don't think it's so much that he's on a short leash or that Bochy does not have confidence in Belt. I think it's more that Bochy is very(maybe overly) sensitive to not letting Belt look bad at the plate for an extended period. I believe Bochy thinks, rightly or wrongly, that an extended period of being overwhelmed at the plate is more detrimental to Belt's psyche than inconsistent playing time.
Fair enough. I try to give Boch the benefit. Part of managing is to explore your options, and put players in the best situations to succeed. 9 of 21 games started, with a six game hitting streak after the terrible start though...
DeleteSo, after the terrible start, Bochy has been good at finding situations where Belt can and has succeeded. Not sure what the gripe is here.
Deletegetting upset with one kid getting a start over another kid means you should never put your kids in little league....you will be one of those evil parents that i feel the need to curb stomp
ReplyDeletehector has the makings of a star....pill is a solid backup, role player an rt handed power bat off the bench
one month in and the team is about where i expected...although i expected them to be trailing the snakes, not the frickin bums
things they need to work on...
defense....young team, defensive lapses are to be expected
hitting with risp...kinda tired of this one
pen issue...with casilla stepping up, this should improve
overall, i have nothing serious to rant about
only pissed about one thing....rowand not on the fish so that the belle crowd can boo his ass back to the duggout
AVENGERS ASSEMBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I guess the thing that bothers me the most is there are sites where some sort of groupthink has taken over on certain players and on Bochy's managing to the point where they actually root for Bochy's lineups to fail because they would rather have the Giants lose than Bochy succeed. They have somehow convinced themselves that the only way for the Giants to succeed in the future is to lose now so Bochy will get fired, nevermind they've already won the only WS since the team moved to SF with Bochy managing.
DeleteThe corollary to all that is they groupthink about some particular player that they think should be in the lineup or another one who shouldn't be in the lineup and the lineup construction becomes an end in itself rather than a means to the end of winning the damn game. The result is that even if the Giants win, the groupthinkers are unhappy because they didn't win with the lineup they wanted.
This is a valid point. And it gets insane. Instead of focusing on Posey, Huff and Torres the 2010 offense is all about Jose Guillen's 40 odd games. Instead of the trade of Bowker for Javy Lopez its all about Bowker not getting his shot. Instead of the amazing pitching - entirely home grown starting 4 in the postseason - its about Cody Ross being a lucky waiver claim. I've said it before - I lived in New York through the Yankee run. Great teams, great games, and the odd roll players that stepped up to help that core... And yes, the bumbling idiot Brian Sabean built that core.
DeleteSome people just won't be happy. I've done a draft analysis on the Sabean years recently, you were nice enough to rec it. The problem with all of the Giants AAAA position players who didn't turn out is this: they were starting with 1 or 2 strikes against them from the beginning. The bell curve of successful major leaguers favors first rounders so heavily its not even funny. I'm going to hit you with the overall draft number, starting with a legit bust, Tony Torcato, in 1998 (19th overall). And Arturo McDaniel at 29. 2000: Lance Neikro (61). 2001: Todd Linden (41). 2002: Fred Lewis (66), Daniel Ortmeir (97). Nate Schierholtz is still rocking in the free world, 2003 (63). John Bowker was the Tucker punt year, (100). Frandsen was 370 the same year, 2004.
My point? Fans had unreasonable expectations on all these players. The odds were severely against them to begin with, and while the Giants might not be the sharpest tools in the hitting development shed, they aren't the worst either. Blue chip talent rocks the house. And money sweeps through the nation to clear out most of it pretty damn easily. Teams should always try to develop talent at all sources. However, the blue chip talent wins most the battles. The Pujols story will be told for the next century. The other 90% were right in front of everybody's faces.
i just wanna see the kids play
Deleteive been waiting for this team since 2005
dont really care how bochy makes the lineup
and they might as well stop moaning....neither bochy or sabean are going anywhere until they retire and get bumped up the ladder
Shankbone,
DeleteThe bell curve does not just favor first rounders. It favors HIGH first rounders even more. Late first rounders don't fare a whole lot better than supplemental or second rounders.
If either Brown or Panik become above average MLB starters, the Giants will have gotten excellent return on those draft picks. If BOTH of them become above average MLB starters, the Giants should be considered geniuses at scouting and drafting.
Even high first rounders are no sure things. The Giants success with a string of high first rounders starting with Tim LIncecum is nothing short of phenomenal. There were several other teams that drafted as high or higher during those years who did not have anything close to the success the Giants had with those drafts. You could even go as far back as Matt Cain to point to an extraordinary track record of first round draft picks by the Giants.
Absolutely favors the high first rounders. Now we may or may not have something with Belt. And fans need to understand that. But they don't. The Giants are a very interesting bunch of amazingly talented marketing schemes and bizarre stunted PR with their outreach on players. This Belt thing is reaching new heights every day, and a few choice words at the right moments might have changed the dialogue so they wouldn't have an angry mob on their hands. And its mainstream now, its not just the 3000 interwebz fans yapping.
DeleteIt's a pleasure to read these comments.
ReplyDeleteAbout the hostile, never happy internet chorus that Shank and Doc are talking about, it's kind of the nature of the beast. (And I do my share of moaning.) The internet gives wide scope to what used to be bar talk. Read stuff at the Cove or at Bagg's old Merc site and you'd think the sky was falling for the G-Men. But my take is that it is such a small portion of fans. Even among hardcore fans, those who bitch on the internet represent such a small portion.
It's hard not to think, reading these sites daily, that that's how all Giants fans feel. Because we keep hearing that negative tone. It's endless. The internet never sleeps and all that.
And everyone thinks they know better, and looky here, now we can tell the world.
Anyway, that's why I prefer it over here at Doc's. Participants at WTGCTT (and I'm definitely not in the same league as the regular posters) are ultra-knowledgeable, and make pretty decent points and come at the Giants issues with a little thought and intelligence.
AND with the prospect focus, there's always that optimistic, future full of promise right on the horizon.
Well, let's just say that there is no way that any of the fans involved in that Wave in the 9'th inning out at the ballpark so much as even know about MCC let alone this site or Giants Extra or any of that stuff. They definitely don't read Fangraphs either. I don't think the Giants care much about the angry mobs on these websites let alone make decisions or public pronouncements for the purpose of mollifying them.
DeleteHaving said that, I do think there are people in the Giants organization who read these sites and I think a lot of players do to. They do have their impact, but not at the level of the Giants thinking they have any PR responsibilities to the internet denizens.
BTW, keep on commenting, Kelly. You do as well or better than any "regular posters."
Shank, just read your comment above, after I'd written my post and we must have been thinking along the same lines, noting the limited-in-quantity, though boisterous, discontented internet crowd...
ReplyDeleteYeah, its hard sometimes to balance. I support fans right to bitch, just like on the barstool. But it gets a bit much sometimes.
DeleteOne thing is clear. Barring some major downturn by Nate, Belt, Pill, Posey or Sanchez, there is simply no room on this team for Huff. Unless he comes back as pinch hitter only, Huff coming back only creates problems. I hope he gets well, and it would be great if there was a long term role for Huff somewhere in the Giants organization, but put him in one of the 25 spots on the team and the team is weakened.
ReplyDeleteBTW, here is why you find a place for Belt - he is the one of the few guys on the Giants that could turn into an elite (or near elite) offensive player. There is some consensus on that around baseball from what I read. If it's true, you have to find out. When he has a breakthrough, or gets on a role you HAVE to ride it a little. I think Nate is an awesome RF, and I think Pill could put up good offensive numbers given an opportunity. But, Belt could (I stress 'could' as we don't know) put up big numbers. The Giants need to find out what they have, and Bochy's handling of the situation is just plain poor.
Sorry Doc, I just don't agree with you on this one.
Wow, three different threads on Belt, with DrB and Shankbone going toe to toe in two.
DeleteScott, if the Giants didn't have a place for Belt, they wouldn't be bringing him up continuously and giving him shots. He just hasn't brung it yet.
Shankbone, you mentioned his hitting streak while starting but I think the more important question is whether he can continue it or not. His BABIP is .450 in that timespan and his contact rate is still in the mid-70's, where hitters usually hit closer to .246 and not the .346 he's hitting since his benching. Even the best hitters can't maintain .350 BABIP (Pablo has in his good years, Ichiro in his MLB career), but even at that, Belt's .933 OPS right now since then would drop at least 200 points (conservatively, as his SLG should fall by more than 100 due to his XHB power), which drops his OPS close to 700 OPS.
I think we all agree that he can be elite, we just disagree about how best for him to get there. But I think we all can agree that until he figures out how not to strike out so much, he'll probably never be elite.
He's so bad right now that he can't even avoid the strikeout in AAA. The Giants think that coaching up here will help him figure it out, and maybe it will. But if AAA pitchers are easily striking him out, obviously MLB pitchers should have an easier time with him.
The only difference is that the mistakes that he sees in the majors (remember, Barry Bonds said he often waited for the pitcher's one mistake in the game) that he can pounce on is much less than the ones he saw in AAA, where his OPS is great (and his contact rate is very poor still). That's not going to change in the majors, and clearly he's getting frustrated and losing confidence facing these better pitchers and failing constantly, hence why he got benched, because he was pressing.
Physical things can get fixed by emphasizing mechanics, but mental things are a much harder nut to crack still. I worry that Belt will reach the point of no return where his mental and emotional issues will overwhelm his abilities.
That is why I prefer him - he of crying on making majors and admitted over pressure, both last season and this - playing in AAA and just working on fixing whatever it is that allows AAA pitchers to strike him out so easily, out of the glare of MLB lights. Build up to what he needs to do to stay in the majors, and not pressurize him in the majors, particularly now that Huff is out.
I think at this point, we need to put him into situations where he can be successful, and a platoon with Pill at 1B would accomplish that, if we must have him in the majors. I know I can't have everything I want. Earl Weaver felt that making the majors is such a big deal that he preferred to bring up his stud starting pitching prospects as a reliever who he would play in situations in order to maximize his chance for success and to build up his confidence, while he adjusted to MLB lifestyle. Maybe Belt might benefit from that.
Let's see, since the Giants' 0-3 start and Belt's 0 or 1 for 12 or whatever wretched number he put up in that first series, they are 12-7 and Belt is hitting well north of .300. Not sure where you get Bochy handling it poorly out of that.
DeleteTried to reply direct, blogger wonky.
ReplyDeleteOGC - I assume you are quoting the 2 week BABIP and OPS. SSS, it's 20 PAs. His BABIP on the season is .400, that is not sustainable for sure. His OPS is 755, and that is the number we want to slide up above the 800 line. You make good points. My answer is terrible, we don't know what we have because he only has 41 PAs on the season.
I think your contact rates points are excellent. The only issue for me is he has just over 1K professional ABs, across all levels including the majors. The sample size for the AAA and MLB are just over 200 PAs. This number is small enough, 10Ks skew his contact rate 5 percentage points. He is around 70% ballpark, he K's 10 less and he's at 75%. Between being told to be more aggressive and being a rook the umps won't do any favors to, I'm not sure what to believe on the contact rates. And that goes for this hole in his swing as well. Now MLB pitchers can pound inside with incredible accuracy in a way AAA pitchers cannot.
Earl Weaver is one of my favorites. If Bochy would give any hint that is his plan, to bring along a kid gently, I would be OK with that. But Bochy has not. And I really don't want to harp on this, but Bochy's quotes from March 2011 were night and day different about Belt, compared to what is going on now. Salivating, the next Posey. So there are some strange things afoot here.
Not sure why we have to parse every word that comes out of Bochy's mouth or winnow out every perceived inconistency. The Giants are 12-7 since the disastrous opening series, disastrous for both them and Belt. Bochy is finding spots for Belt and Belt is having some success. Let's see here, The Giants are winning and Belt is playing well. Not sure I see where the problem is in all that.
DeleteRelax and enjoy the ride. Got it.
DeleteI agree with DrB on this, he took the words out of my mouth. The way you are parsing his words, it is almost like a political campaign where you are seeking to denigrate the opponent (not saying you are, but it is like it).
DeleteSituations change, circumstances change, the prospect changes, the team's needs change. If you can at least give me the context of what you have against what Bochy is saying, then I may or may not agree with you, but in March, he's hitting well, he did well in 2010, why not pump up the kid to the media, show your top prospect that you know what he did and know that he's good. But once the season started, he wasn't quite that good any more, in fact, he's struggling.
About the stats, it is exactly after the 3 games in AZ, whatever that works out to be. The point is not SSS, the point is that for him to continue to hit as well as you are talking about, which is SSS but I didn't point that out as I thought it would be obvious to you (and it was), by noting his getting a hit in every start, he would have to keep up an impossible BABIP, which suggests that it is impossible for him to continue hitting this well without some major change in the way he is hitting. That is, expect a crash barring any new discovery on his part of how to hit.
It is not like I don't want him to hit. It is not like I wouldn't love to give him all the PA's. It is just that our offense isn't good enough to keep scoring if one of the main people we are hoping to hit well isn't hitting well, and Belt, while hitting well in terms of batting line, isn't hitting well enough that he could sustain that batting line except under extreme circumstances. It's that simple to me.
But at this point, with Huff out and we have no idea when or if he'll return, and even if he does, whether we get any useful production out of him, Belt is the risk mitigation that I've been harping on the past few years, hopefully he can start hitting and pick up the team in Huff's absence (not that Huff was doing anything before, though, he just had better peripherals than Belt). Another viable risk mitigation is Hanchez catching while Posey plays 1B, and that seems to be getting more popular. And Arias and Pill has been nice in limited play so far as well. So we seem to have a lot of options beside Belt right now.
I'm surprised that MCC isn't putting up head lines like "I told you to get Smoak instead of Posey, he could be our starting 1Bman". :^)
Yup, relax and enjoy the ride!
DeletePolitical campaign. Got it.
ReplyDeleteI think Belt will play at least 2 games against the Marlins, possibly all 3. The only possible exception would be game 2 where The Hector will catch Zito which might mean Posey moves to 1B. Let's see what happens.
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