I said I hoped the Giants would sign Matt Cain to a contract extension. I said I believed they would sign him to a contract extension. I'm a happy guy. Having said that, it is a very big contract for more years than any team should sign any pitcher, but that's the current market. If anybody is capable of meeting the value of their contract, or at least coming close, it's Matt Cain.
Thanks to a remarkably productive farm system and a solid financial situation, the Giants are in a better position to take this risk than most teams. They have prospects poised to take the place of veteran contracts coming off the books over the next 2 years. Cain is the only really big commitment they have past 2014. Timmy will be a FA after 2013, but they bought some time to further evaluate whether they want to go all out to prevent him from hitting the open market then. Sandoval is controlled until after 2014. After that, Posey and Bumgarner don't hit FA until after 2016. They have Belt, Crawford, Brown and Panik contract controlled until well after Cain's contract is done. Like I have said many times, the Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball and this contract extension is one of the very nice results.
After this contract signing, can we finally put to rest the talk about Giants ownership being cheap, skinflinty, clueless and not caring about winning? Come on! Does anyone really believe that fielding a winning team is not part of the Giants business plan and that they don't realize they have to pay for players capable of winning? I really, really hope we've heard the last of that nonsense!
Of course, there's the other side of the coin. Sabes was in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation where if he didn't get Cain signed he'd be accused of shortsightedness and ownership would be accused of being cheap. Now that the deal is done, the other side of the fringe is already starting to yell about overpayment and needless risk taking. Nope, Sabes and the Giants can't win for losing on these deals, at least in the eyes of the internet oriented fandom.
I'll conclude by saying it's a great contract for Matt Cain. He's set for life. I'm happy for him. He's worked hard for it and deserves it if anyone on Earth does. It's a reasonable deal for the Giants. Everyone should be relieved and happy.
Now, can we please get this season started?
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I'm glad there are level headed Giants fans like you Dr. B! I think everyone will hold off on calling ownership cheap until after next year when they don't resign Timmy. That will be the hot topic of conversation over the next 2 years just like they talked about the Holliday signing in St. Louis. Either way, whether we keep Timmy or not I think this deal was not only necessary but instills a huge amount of confidence in fans that this team is doing what it preaches.
ReplyDeleteRegarding whether Cain is worth the money, I think in 2-3 years his contract won't look as bad after guys like Hamels, Romero, and Shields sign deals just as big. His durability shouldn't be that big of an issue either considering he is only 27 or 28.
A couple of people including you Dr. B have mentioned his WAR isn't worth the 22 mil a year but he brings value beyond the field and everywhere where it doesn't show up on the box score. He anchors this team relieving pressure from the offense and from the rest of the rotation carrying enough weight to warrant getting paid above his WAR. Also consider the negative WAR that the Giants would endure without Cain in the rotation suffering through whoever his replacement would be. Those are some big shoes to fill and Cainer wears them as good as any pitcher I have ever seen in a Giants Uniform!
Well, Cain has continued to show improvement in his stats right up through last season, so he could very well put up 5 WAR/season for the next 3 or 4 seasons. He does that and is almost doesn't matter what he does on the back end of the contract. That would be a remarkable career right there.
DeletePato - great point about the potential replacement. The whole idea you can go grab a scrapheap pitcher and some bats for this "Cain money" is losing site of the negative value that spot is taking. Dave Cameron allows his dislike of Cain to color his opinion - any old pitcher will do in the Giants factory/park/pitching coach is his thesis. Don't agree with that at all. The Giants used their first round picks to grab top of the line starters. That is what Cain is, what the Giants have and what the rest of the league wants.
DeleteWhen the story broke, my first reaction was that all the boo birds would be chirping on overpayment, especially considering the Jeff Weaver and CJ Wilson deals that everyone thought fit Cain...
ReplyDeleteTHEN. The Reds did us the favor of overpaying like crazy over 10 years on Joey Votto. Welcome to the forefront of overpayment criticism, Mr. Votto.
I personally like the Cain deal. He is is the 21st century definition of a horse.
My 1st reaction was it's a fair deal for both sides. I like how they covered the 6th year with a vesting option.. I honestly don't think a 5 year contract is too long in Cain's case based on his age 27 years old, and his past performance. This is great way to start off the 2012 season! The thought of Timmy, Cain, and Madbum anchoring the rotation for at least the next 2 years is a very exciting thought..
ReplyDeleteShankbone, I totally understood your frustration with the negotiating process the other day.. I remember being upset with the organization back in 1994 when they let Will Clark walk away.. Glad they got Cain signed!
LG
Thanks LG. I keep my Lunatic Fringe cards for special big time occasions. Clark, Kent and Vlad. All 3 names are hot button topics with me, and I really, really didn't want to see Cain walk away. Very glad they got him signed.
DeleteGreat day to be a Giants fan. They just tied down the bridge to the next wave of pitching talent. I'm too happy to have any issues. Congrats to Matt Cain, he's earned it. Congrats to the RDF crew for cutting the check. Congrats to Brian Sabean for sticking to his guns.
ReplyDeleteLike you said, Sabean has a blank slate. It's great the first piece secured long term is Cain. Of course there is risk involved, and I'm glad Baer & Co realized that they needed to step up to keep the pitching strong, keep the fans happy and show their commitment to long term excellence.
Sabermetric value: I'll use B/R #s because I might get banned from F/G after rattling Dave Cameron's cage over his lame article about Cain. In 6 years and change, Cain has put up 25.0 WAR, at 5MM rough estimate that everybody seems to use, 125MM value and paid a tad under 17MM. I expect him to continue to elevate his game as he goes into his pitching prime, hitting around 4-5 WAR with a couple exceptional seasons that will spike the overall 7 year deal to between 30-35 WAR, 150MM-175MM value. And Cain is a pitcher who gets underrepresented by run support as well as sabermetric stats such as xFip and traditional stats such as strikeouts. He can still hump up his fastball when he needs that K though.
Franchise Values: he is worth more to the Giants than to any other club. They would not have been able to meet his price on the open market. This is a win win. The fan good will it brings is immense, and it was very obvious that was unraveling before our eyes. If you could go on the market and grab a pitcher, you would want the youngest and most durable guy you can find. (I'll concede you would want as little mileage on his arm as possible as well for you DrB but then he wouldn't have proven durability, its a chicken/egg argument). That would be Matt Cain. Getting his age 28-33 years is a straight up win.
Historic value: #18 now has a shot at pitching for the same team his entire career. That is a true honor in this day and age. I expect him to elevate his game further and put up some numbers that will be truly special. And I think he is just the horse of a pitcher to go do it.
Shankbone, you really laid the lumber to Dave Cameron. Good for you! He deserves it. l
DeleteI think he was a bit shocked and taken aback by the Votto contract. He'd never admit to it, but that announcement pretty much blew his Cain article out of the water. Well, I think he actually did admit it by saying the Votto contract is a game changer.
I've got a new definition for torture, listening to A's announcers do games at AT&T. Either my cable sucks or this is the only channel the game is on but this is unbearable. The guys they are interviewing on the A's bench are real gems as well. I guess Melvin ducked the on camera interview and made his bench coach babble his way through a 15 minute inning. He can't stop fidgeting and Melvin is just standing next to him making stupid faces.
ReplyDeleteAs Anonymous notes, the Votto contract is the big news of the day.
ReplyDeleteIt just feels more and more like the financial landscape is evolving rapidly right now in baseball. Some of that is an immediate reaction (and in all likelihood, OVER-reaction) to the Dodgers' price.
But more and more I think that the local TV money is getting crazy. My theory on that is that if you want to make money with television commercials, you have to use live sports. Commercials are just too easy to skip otherwise. Could be wrong. But, if correct, we may have to soon adjust things like the value of 1 WAR. Might now be more than $5 million.
To piggy-back my comment above (and i'll make a profile soon), the Votto contract is laughable in my opinion, especially considering Matt Kemp's 160mil (8/160) deal or Adrian Gonzalez (7/156).
ReplyDeleteI guess it could be an argument, but I don't think Joey Votto is quite the game changer Matt Kemp is. Not only did the Reds hump up more money per year on him, but they also assumed the risk of 3 extra years isn't just approaching ludicrous, it is ridiculous. Considering their history with the injuries that plagued Ken Griffey Jr., I can't believe the Reds did this. For a club that definitely sits more in the middle of the pack as far as spending goes in this league, even if Joey Votto plays a mediocre few seasons (even uninjured), the Reds will be weighed down.
On a positive note, this makes the future prospects of the Pirates actually making the playoffs more realistic.
When agents look for comps, this will be on the top of the list.
DeleteAnd the guy is a 28-year old 1B. I can't believe it.
DeleteThe Kemp deal includes 2012 and his last Arb year at $10M. Gonzalez's deal includes 2011-14which were his final arb years, and he 'only' gets $1, 5, 7.5 and 10 million in those years.
Delete2012 and 2013 are Votto arb years, but his contract last year had that at $9.5 and $17. His extension doesn't include those years. He's really signed at 252/12. The contract is crazy enough on its own - but hard to compare with contracts that buy out arb years.