The Trade Deadline is fast approaching and the heat is on Giants GM Farhan Zaidi. "Buy" vs "Sell" debates are reaching a crescendo. A month ago, it all seemed settled. Farhan was, at minimum, going to trade off all players who are pending free agents and hopefully a bad contract or two in the process. He was going to get back prospects in these trades that would transform a moribund farm system into the envy of MLB. Then a funny thing happened. Farhan's roster churning turned up a some hot hitters. Rookies started pitching well. Jaded veteran players started acting like they wanted to be out there playing again. Bruce Bochy resurrected his almost magical ability to manage a pitching staff. The Giants won game after game and reeled in the pack in the Wild Card race. Suddenly it wasn't crazy to think the Giants might have one more improbable championship run in them in the 2010's.
And so the debates began. Remember the Belt Wars? Maybe in a few years we'll look back on this moment in time as the Trade Wars! Our debates are playing out on websites and social media and maybe some sports talk shows. It is also quite possible that the same debates are going on behind closed doors among ownership, upper management and field management. Players are taking notice and reportedly passing threats of mutiny in the clubhouse to beat reporters. The arguments break down along 3 lines: Buy, Sell, Hold.
Pro Buy: The Giants have closed the gap in the Wild Card race. With a little help from a trade deadline acquisition or two, they can keep the momentum going, take a wild card spot and repeat the run of 2012.
Con Buy: This hot stretch is a mirage. It's still a bad team at it's core. Trading prospects for veteran help will only weaken an already weak farm system with close to zero chance for a payoff.
Pro Sell: Giants are still a distant long shot at best. They have to take advantage of this unique opportunity to re-stock the farm system by trading pending free agents who won't be here next season anyway.
Con Sell: Trading away an icon like Madison Bumgarner midseason will crater clubhouse and fan morale. August and September will be a bloodbath much like September was last year. Attendance will plummet cutting into revenue the team needs to remain competitive into the future.
Pro Hold: The farm system is much improved and the need to restock no longer critical. Besides, they can make Qualifying Offers to Bumgarner and possibly Will Smith and replenish the farm system through the compensation draft picks. Meanwhile, the Giants will remain just competitive enough to keep the fans coming out without additional cost in payroll or prospects. And hey! Anything can happen. They might just keep the magic going and win with this latest Band of Misfits.
Con Hold: This team is doomed without at least 1 or 2 significant upgrades. It's the worst of all worlds in which they both lose out on postseason play and fail to upgrade the farm system.
Each of those is a rational argument. Farhan Zaidi and Giants ownership have to make their choice which also depends on the choices and values of potential trading partners. As Kris Kristofferson put it, "we take our own chances and pay our own dues...."
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I don’t think it would cost much to upgrade at a few key spots. Jonathan Villar would be a good target (could lead off and play 3B or 2B) or maybe the Brewers would dump Travis Shaw for Samardjiza. Dee Gordon is another who may not cost much but could improve 2B or OF and be better than Belt at leadoff.
ReplyDeleteDee Gordon: .280/.306/.367 dWAR -0.5
DeleteBrandon Belt: .240/.359/.401
No one plays 1B better than Belt
What the Giants don't have is a valuable 2Bman, power, and starting pitching. Trading Shark is throwing in the towel -- there is not another #2.
If you could get a playable RHH 2Bman upgrade for Smith (or Dyson 2 year control + stats are arguably as good as Smith except for Saves) and an OFer with some POP for another reliever, you won't fix broken.
Mejia DFA'd -- Giants got Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos for Mejia (via Nunez).
ReplyDeleteWho made those trades?
Saddle up for Bochy's Last Ride!
ReplyDeleteMight not be the smartest long term plan, but it's fun for the fans and he's earned it.
(I'm an oldster who's been a fan since '64. Didn't see a single championship 'til Bochy.)
They need their Scutaro. When he came in 12, he was the key to the offense. Was a cheap acquisition, too. I'm willing to give up on Panik for an adequate replacement. It might be the key. It might also be Solano.
ReplyDeleteIs Sogard the 2019 Scutaro? A lot of rumors mentioning him with the Giants.. Personally, I don't want anything to do with him and have a bad feeling on the guy..but will leave it up to the Soggy Botttom Boy Braintrust.
DeleteA very, very hard decision for Farhan. These guys are playing great baseball and are a lot of fun to watch. Who doesn't want that to continue and maybe ensure it with a little tweek? OTOH, the glass half empty part of me thinks it's doubtful this can go on and that there are too many other teams involved to have a happy ending..So why not do what you can for next year and the years after?
Maybe a lot depends on the offers? No sense making a trade just to make a trade..But if you really want to pony up for a SMith, Madbum, Dyson..The gaints need to listen..
A funny thing, I hear all (OK, not all) these baseball experts (and maybe the analytic driven GMNs) out there saying that Madbum;s value is lower than quite a few other pitchers who are better options...Statistically, analytically, in the regular season? yeah.probably..But if you really want to WIN the WOrld Series and need a starter to do so, to excelll in the POs? you would be idiotic to not make MADBUM your #1 target and pay the price necessary...And that's the only offer the Giants should take for him...
SteveVA