The Hot Stove is sizzling today. No sooner had Christian Walker signed with the Astros and Paul Goldschmidt with the Yankees than the D'Backs moved aggressively to fill their hole at 1B with Josh Naylor in a trade with the Guardians. The DBacks send Slade Cecconi RHP and Competitive Balance Round B draft pick to the Guardians.
D'Backs get:
Josh Naylor 1B.
2024: .243/.320/.456, 31 HR, 6 SB, 9.2 BB%, 16.6 K%, 633 PA, 2.3 fWAR.
Good hitter, bad body. Negative defensive metrics drag down his WAR value. Free Agent next offseason.
Guardians get:
Slade Cecconi RHP.
2024: (AAA): 4-2, 3.06, 47 IP, 10.34 K/9, 2.68 BB/9.
2024(MLB): 2-7, 6.66, 77 IP, 7.48 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.
Former #33 overall draft pick in 2020. I liked him from my predraft research. Excellent control but is command within the zone a problem? He gave up 16 HR in 77 IP. Maybe was too afraid of walking batters? Back of rotation pitching option for the Guardians.
Summary: D'Backs win the trade in the short term but downgrade their defense at 1B and only control Naylor's contract for 1 season. Cecconi's numbers could well improve with experience. Naylor would have been an interesting bridge to Bryce Eldridge but I get the feeling Buster Posey is not that into bridge contracts and 1 year rentals.
Then, no sooner had the news sprung on the Naylor trade but the Guardians reunited with Carlos Santana on a 1 yr/$12 M contract.
Carlos Santana 1B/DH:
2024: .238/.328/.420, 23 HR, 10.9 BB%, 16.7 K%, 594 PA, 3.0 fWAR.
Santana had a solid season for the Twins in 2024 and actually had positive defensive WAR value at age 39. How much longer can he keep it up?
Summary: Assuming Josh Naylor was going to leave in free agency, the Guardians may have actually upgraded 1B for 2025 by trading him and signing Santana. Again the question is how much longer can Santana keep up this level of play? Santana has also been discussed in blogs as a possible bridge option at 1B for the Giants. I think Buster has other priorities and is likely to stick with LMWJ and a RH platoon bat for 1B until Bryce Eldridge is ready.
Seems like the Dbacks gave Cleveland a small pile of peanuts for Naylor. For that price I am a little upset we didn’t get him. Would have been a big offensive upgrade over LMJ or any of the other borderline major leaguers they have to fill one of the biggest holes in our lineup.
ReplyDeleteWell, the draft pick is not nothing and the Giants don't hold any tradeable draft picks.
DeleteDon't forget, the pick comes with about $1- 1.5 M in slot bonus money.
DeleteI’m not sure what the equivalent value would have been in prospects or proven major leaguers but I bet Doval would have gotten it done and maybe a lot less? It isn’t just Naylor its Bellinger and Tucker as well. They all seem to have been acquired for players who the Giants could have easily matched.
DeleteRight now our offense is missing production from 2 very important postions in 1B and DH. There are several options left in free agency and probably a few in trades but the options have decreased significantly. Maybe the plan isn’t to try to fix this team all in one year.
If Buster does want to do everything he can this offseason then he has work to do. He has already shown his competence in free agency with Adames and it would be nice to see an impact trade. This team is close to being interesting with a few more moves but if the plan is to hold tight for Eldridge in 2026 then I will try to wait patiently!
I am pretty sure Doval by himself would not have gotten Naylor. The draft pick is hard to compare with a player due to the slot bonus issue and teams value that added flexibility in the draft a lot. I can understand why Buster did not want any part of Bellinger's contract and I suspect there may be other reasons which I would rather not comment on he might not have put in a bid on him. The Astros got a nice haul for Tucker. Parades can start at 3B or 1B and Cam Smith is a darn good prospect who might rival Bryce Eldridge in value. Don't think the Giants wanted to try to top that package even if they could.
DeleteI like Rizzo. Feels like could be had for like 2yr $12MM with that 2nd year team option. People say he's breaking down, but it's all been from 3 '23-4 collisions, 2 with people & 1 with a ball, the first one was concussion with some persistence that's now hopefully in rearview and last one a broken hand from which he rushed to return for playoffs, and Yankees had him bat 6th, in LCS &WS and he did OK (although entirely singles & walks). Guy's won platinum glove, lefty bat, seems great potential Eldridge mentor. Will walk more & strike out less than most of Giants lineup (although not to Wade degree), and hopefully returns to reasonable 1B power hitting
ReplyDeleteIDK, right now LMWJ looks like a better player, at least on paper, and he's in the $4-5 M range for salary.
DeleteI'm all for the Rizzo idea, and there's an added reason that the OP's nice original post didn't yet mention, and which is oft overlooked: Rizzo is NEW BLOOD to the organization. Teams can't keep throwing out onto the field the same moderately good product they showed last year...
DeleteI think it's important to the team chemistry, to the feeling of positive action and forward motion, for new meaningful players to be brought into the club regularly. If you're not getting better, you're getting worse, and I think Rizzo as a player and as an adjustment to the on field product would be an easy net positive. Especially if OP's contact estimate is anywhere near accurate.
He's a gritty dude who adds both defensively and offensively. It would be a clever move. Never know, might catch lightning in a bottle.
(rolls eyes): Anthony Rizzo 1B, Age 35. 2023: .244/.328/.378, 12 HR, -1.6 Def, 0.8 fWAR. 2024: .228/.301/.335, 8 HR, -5.3 def, -0.2 fWAR. Note he played the last 3 seasons in Yankee Stadium which is probably the easiest yard for lefty hitters while Oracle Park is definitely the hardest. The last time he put up a fWAR of 3 or more was 2019 with the Cubs. I just don't see an upgrade over a LMWJ platoon here.
DeleteAside from the lack of consistent power > LMWJ > I am comfortable hm as a holding place for this coming year
ReplyDeleteThat said I predict a good year from him.
He has earned the roster spot .
Buster just get another 180 innings eater starter.
Richard in Winnipeg
Richard in Winnipeg
IMO, priority has to be starting pitching. We can't start the season with just one reliable starter who can go deep into games after at least 2 seasons of watching the bullpen get trashed by too many bullpen games and too many early exits by SP's. Hopefully that will be Burnes if Buster and ownership feel they can afford him. If not, pivot to less expensive pitchers but they must have a track record of pitching deep into games. Gotta protect the bullpen and the young unproven SP's.
DeleteThe self-named Smart Guys are saying Burnes (aka Borass) is holding out until 2025.
DeleteSuch cheek. Take the money and run, there are Others trying to get a deal while the elephant in the room won't settle for just ivory.
The whining about FZ was understandable, after all he did have 6 years.
ReplyDeleteBeating up on Buster after 2 months is a bit hasty — maybe wait to see his Plan? He's obviously in the fray for Burnes, adding a Stud to the Offense (and Defense) and a top of the Rotation (he will get Burnes if Ownership lets him), is not a bad Start.
Selling out on LMWJ, YtY, and Gung-ho Lee (and maybe Flores, too), is Dumbthink.
Many on various media are lamenting the Giants not signing some lessor player that might make SF incrementally better.
ReplyDeleteTwo things somewhat contra are possible that explain it:
Ownership wants to reset the Luxury Tax and Management wants to sign Corbin Burnes.
To accomplish both, Posey is willing to settle for Wade, Flores, YtY, Schmitt, Encarnacion, Murphy, McCray, Wisely, Meckler, Villar, Luciano, Matos, and even Sabol to have enough payroll to sign Burnes and reset their tax.
They might even have enough left over to pick a few pitching and hitting bargains to lengthen the roster or even make a trade.
Winning 2 of the MLBTR Top 5 Free Agents is a Victory, especially when they didn't want two of them (Snell and Bregman) and couldn't be competitive on their goal had they tried for the the best (Soto) and thankfully failed.
Patience is difficult: keep your eye of the Goal!