It was a busy day at MLB's Winter Meetings starting off with the Rangers re-signing Nate Eovaldi RHP to a 3 yr/$75 M contract. After being plagued by injuries and inconsistency early in his career, Eovaldi has been on of MLB's most consistent pitchers over the past 5 seasons with ERA's ranging from 3.63 to 3.80 while averaging 152 IP/season over his last 4 seasons. He enters his age 35 season. MLBTR predicted a 2 yr/$44 M contract for him, so we once again see contracts for SP's outstripping predictions by a significant amount, both in years and in AAV.
The Blockbuster deal of the day went to Max Fried LHP who agreed to terms with the Yankees for a whopping 8 years/$218 M. Fried is a durable, consistent performer accumulating a career 3.07 ERA in 884.1 IP. His deal tops MLBTR's prediction of 6 yr/$156 M.... by a lot! His K rate is not outstanding but he has elite walk and groundball rates. He has missed some time with forearm strains the past 2 seasons so that is something to watch going forward, especially in a pitcher who just got an 8 year contract to take him through his age 38 season.
The Guardians traded their gold-glove second baseman, Andres Gimenez, to the Blue Jays along with Nick Sandlin RHP for Spencer Horwitz IF and Nick Mitchell OF. Gimenez' offensive production tailed off the last two seasons and this trade gets the last 5 years of his $106.5 M contract off their books while getting a potential 2B replacement in return along with a promising prospect.
The last big news of the day was the Rangers acquiring Jake Burger 3B/1B from the Marlins for three prospects. The Rangers run-scoring faltered last season and Burger hit 29 HR's. He is a defensive liability who could end up DH'ing for most of his PA's.
In Giants news, they are rumored to still be in on Corbin Burnes RHP who is not expected to command a deal well north of his MLBTR prediction of 6 yr/$200 M. Buster Posey gushed about Roki Sasaki RHP who will wait until a short window after the next international signing window opens on Jan 15. Sasaki is widely expected to sign with the Dodgers his agent is pushing back on that notion. Sasaki is rumored to be unhappy with aggressive sports media and San Francisco's sports media is believed to be more athlete-friendly than LA. It is also emerging that being the second Japanese player in a given market hurts merch sales. We'll see. All this seems vaguely familiar.
With the addition of Willy Adames SS, the Giants 40-man roster is full so they will not be selecting in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft this AM. They could still select someone in the minor league phase.
And is it just me or have the Giants been the victims of vaguely bad luck for awhile now? They came out of the draft lottery dropping 4 slots from #9 to #13 as 4 teams improved their draft position including the Nationals at #1 overall, the Angels at #2, the Mariners at #3 and the Cardinals at #5. The two teams with the worse records, the Rockies and Marlins dropped to #4 and #7 respectively. Dropping from #9 to #13 may not seem like a big deal but we have seen drafts where a difference of just 1 or 2 slots makes a huge difference in available talent depending on where tiers break.
I think the Giants should go for Roki. Roll the dice on the 23 year old. Generational talent, good for the pitching staff and good for merch sales. Build an international team with Korea, Japan, the DR and Puerto Rico. Would love Corbin Burnes, but with the way the market is going. LA, SD and others will bid on Roki and Burnes though, but honor the faithful and bring out the big $s.
ReplyDeleteSasaki's market depends almost entirely on where he wants to go. Because of his age, he is classified as an international prospect rather than an established veteran so he is subject to the limits of the bonus pool caps. The maximum bonus he can get is around $7 M. He and his agent have made it pretty clear his choice will be mostly determined by non-monetary factors although his ability to access endorsement money will almost certainly be a big factor.
DeleteThe Giants have to decide whether to pivot away from Josuar Gonzalez, the #1 rated international prospect before Sasaki hit the market, to free up bonus pool money to go after Sasaki.
DeleteIf Gonzalez is #1 international prospect 2025 and Giants favored to sign him, and Sasaki rated #2, not sure if I want them to do anything that would jeopardize the Gonzalez signing.
DeleteOh, I am sure Sasaki is #1 now.
DeletePavs had a good interview with Buster posey on his Giants Talk podcast which touched on several topics. I like how Buster gives straight forward answers. Pavs said before the interview that the Giants are confident they will sign Gonzalez and have enough $ to bid on Sasaki, but won't be the highest bidder. Posey was smart not to get involved in Soto bidding and concentrate on signing Adames. We will see what happens next! I'm excited!
DeleteGiven our division > I would advise Buster to pay for the known talent versus the unknown when pitcher shopping >Burnes is likely going to get more than Max Fried money > Also Mr Snell is going to be righ p'od that he jumped in early this year.
ReplyDeleteMho foor what its worth
Richard in Winnipeg
Glad we passed on Snell, the antithesis of the "grit mentality" Posey spoke with Andy Baggerly about: "“That type of stuff matters,” said Posey, noting that Adames played in 161 games last season while leading the Milwaukee Brewers to the NL Central title. “Obviously, he’s a very talented player, but I think (it’s also) his willingness to buy into the grit mentality that we want to be. We want to be a team full of guys like Matt Chapman: a guy that’s going to be on the field and he’s going to give it everything he’s got. Willy is another guy. When you have leaders like that, when you have veterans like that, it’s much easier for the younger players that walk into the clubhouse..."
ReplyDeleteSnell is very good, but he puts a lot of stress on his team's bullpen which, in the case of the Giants, was overworked last year. Of course, so was the Hated Ones' BP, but they seemed to handle it pretty well, most probably better than SF did.
DeleteWhen he declined to pitch in last year's final games, that may well have been the difference between the Giants finishing at .500 and not. Does that matter in the cosmic sense? It doesn't show much in the way of loyalty to his team. Good riddance! Sign Burnes!
If they really want Roki they need to think outside the box and cross any lines they can to sweeten the deal. Private jet on call for him and his family at all times. Suite in the ballpark and a penthouse apartment next door. Posey needs to hook him up with his Toyota people and line up a few commercials right away. Company cars and company boat. Free meals everywhere. Do whatever it takes to impress the hell out of this kid including signing more bats to support him. Santander and Walker should suffice
ReplyDeleteWhile I'd be OK with signing Sasaki, the market for starting pitching really has gone crazy. Huge contracts for mediocre mid rotation pitchers. I keep coming back to our stockpile of young potential starters, and thinking 'there's our future rotation'. Let's see who we can develop into a quality starter. Give the kids a chance, and a lot of coaching. Could yield big rewards.
ReplyDeleteRealistically, the Giants need an Ace to be a Bonafide Contender and Burnes is the last ace in the deck.
ReplyDeleteThere is room below the first $241M luxury tax threshold for 2025, but is if Buster willing to outbid Toronto (Yankees are probably out after signing Max Fried) and Boston and ?
It will be overspending.
Giants will have to go with Wade/Flores at first which isn't B-A-D and YtY/youths in RF, plus Ramos & Fitzgerald and Lee to fill an adequate defense — and pray someone steps up to DH, but they will have a solid rotation/pen/closer.
It's a stretch, but with Burnes the Giants could be good for 9 more wins than 2024 and that's all 2 of the NL WC's had last year.
Weren't we positive going into the season last year? This is a better team.
With the Red Sox acquiring stud pitcher Garrett Crochet for three top prospects, MLBTR writes today that Boston may not be in the serious running for Burnes although they did extend an offer to him, details unknown. Toronto is considered (by MLBTR) to be the front runner for him, partially because SF announced some time ago they would trim spending which signing Burnes would not do.
DeleteAs said in Forrest Gump "Stupid is as stupid does," which is stupid: over paying for Burnes or passing on him and not filling Snell's shoes?
3 more cheers for Buster: he played the amateur draft well with the Giants not losing a player, but did they miss on anyone?
ReplyDeleteProbably not: there were 5 players selected after SF's "slot" (if they had had one), but were any better than the guys they did protect, such as the Carsons (Seymour and Ragsdale)? Four were pitchers and one an infielder which aren't priorities for the Giants. Is the jury still out on Sabol?
Personally, I am all for BURNES, high contract be damned..but think TOR will take the contract too high..Then the Giants will have to look elsewhere for a consistent, dependable starter. And I am not holding my breath on the new japanese kid, he will be a Dodger....All i know is, right now, the Giants, like last year at this time, have WEBBB and 57 question marks for starting P....Can you count on RAY to find what he once was? Can HICKs be a SP for more than a 1/3 rd of a season? Can HARRISON finally take a real step up? WIll BIRDSONG adjust to adjustments in a tough sophmore year? ANd then you have still unproven guys like ROUP, WINN (also hurt) and new guys like Whisenhint, McDOnald, etcc....I like a lot of them but am unwilling to count on them..One more dependable starter to go with WEBB is mandatory and can make a whale of a difference...........The you have 1B and a solid OFer to get!
ReplyDeletesteveVA
Agree with all of that.
DeleteAny signing after Burnes will make the Giants a repeat offender on the luxury tax without shedding some salary, most likely YtY and Taylor Rogers and maybe Wade and Doval, too.
DeleteThat's rolling the dice!
Great comment on "yardbayardbarker.com":
ReplyDeleteBob Nightengale called the Giants “heavy favorites” to sign Corbin Burnes. But he’s wrong so frequently, this probably means Burnes is going to be a Blue Jay.
In Nightengale's favor: reports say Burnes wants to return to the West Coast, but doesn't everyone go to the biggest, longest, bestest offer?