I think most of us had long since figured out that if the Giants were going to sign Corbin Burnes RHP it would have happened already but it's still a shock to the system to see the headline that he signed with another team, the D'Back no less! The reported deal is 6 yr/$210 M with an opt-out after 2 years. Several sources are saying the Giants and Blue Jays offered more guaranteed money but difference in state taxes was likely a big factor in his decision as well as the fact he has a home in Scottsdale. It is also not known if the other offers included an opt-out or if they were for more seasons making the AAV less.
This news comes as a triple blow to the Giants as not only do they not get the pitcher they wanted and needed, he goes to a division rival and the starting pitcher free agent market thinned out considerably while they were waiting. They still need at least one reliable veteran SP who can get deep into games to take pressure off Logan Webb RHP but the market is down to Jack Flaherty RHP and the "Brebbia Aisle." There is Roki Sasaki RHP who would be a dream come true but the chances of signing him are likely much less than 1/30. There may still be some opportunities on the trade market and I'm waiting to see Buster Posey impress me with a really savvy trade.
*************************************************************************************
In other Hot Stove League news, Teoscar Hernandez OF re-signed with the Dodgers for 3 yrs/$66 M with a $23 M signing bonus and $23 M in deferred money. Hernandez is coming off the best season of his career but hit 116 HR's over his last 4 seasons so is a reliable HR and RBI man, especially in a stacked lineup like the Dodgers.
*************************************************************************************
And finally, Gleyber Torres 2B signed a 1 yr/ $15 M contract with the Tigers. Am I crazy to think that would not have been a bad contract for the Giants to sign?
Doc, just curious why you believe the Giants' chances on Sasaki are that low. (I haven't really heard anything tying Sasaki to the Giants...but then again I hadn't heard anything tying Burnes to the Snakes either...) It's always kind of dismayed me that the Giants have almost never been in on Japanese Stars given, at the very least, SF's location on the coast.
ReplyDeleteI'm not even sure how much International Bonus money the Giants have available now. But, do you believe it's the lack of Japanese players here, the state of the team, or something else that has the Giants at such a disadvantage?
The 1/30 comes from the fact there are 30 teams in MLB all with approximately the same amount of international bonus money available. I would put the chances at less due to the Dodgers being heavy favorites and the Padres and Mariners having better track records at signing Japanese players. As for why the Giants have not been involved heavily in the Japanese market, this is purely speculation on my part but the NBP players seem to be a tight knit community. It appears to me that there is something either in the organization or the city that has landed on their fecal roster aka s*** list and they just don't want to come here and it goes way back to the days of the Sabean regime. Buster and his crew have to figure out what that deal is and work on changing the narrative, whatever it is.
DeleteThe Giants might be on the Asian s*** list because they have ignored their Asian fanbase for decades. If they want some pointers on how to capture the Asian fanbase, they need look no further than one mile south to see how the Warriors have done it. The Warriors have produced special uniforms and caps for Chinese and Filipino fans and have major Asian food presence at the Chase Center. The Giants barely have any Asian food available inside Oracle and they have the occasional "Heritage NIght" that feels more like pandering than sincere outreach. In Asia, the Warriors are a recognized brand with players such as Klay Thompson actually touring Asia. If the Giants want to sign Asian players, they would need to promote their brand in Asia (like the Dodgers and Warriors do) and recognize their local Asian fanbase. The Giants have ignored this for so long that they probably do not even realize it is a problem. The only thing the Giants have done is feed the Japanese stars a sushi dinner during negotiations. The players were unimpressed but were too polite to tell the Giants that they were way off the mark.
DeleteI don't have enough information to confirm or refute Anon's assertions about sushi dinners but if true I can see why the Asian players might see that as tone deaf.
DeleteThe restaurant was Akari and the Giants took Ohtani and Yamamoto. Supposedly this is a favorite restaurant of visiting ballplayers and a favorite of Zaidi. It is a nice restaurant but one nice sushi dinner does not make up for years of benign neglect toward Asians and Asian players, which is noticed by players, wives, and agents.
DeleteWe took trips to Hong Kong and Japan recently and a big thing over there is the MLB Store. The MLB Store is status in Asia much like Nike or Coach. The problem with the MLB Store is that 95% of the hats and gear are Dodgers, Yankees, and Angels. The Giants could have jumped on this cash cow ten years ago but they didn't. The Dodgers and Warriors were definitely paying attention to this market. Now, the Giants should not be surprised if Sasaki signs with the team that comes with the blue hats that say LA on them. The Giants brand almost does not exist overseas and they only have themselves to blame.
Doc, disappointing, but not surprising as you said.
ReplyDeleteSo if I am Buster > regroup > refocus on getting first base help for Wade.
Meet with your entire org pitching brian trust and determine your 7 best starters and look closely at your core of relievers and go into spring and keep yours eyes and ears open for a potential trade partner for whateveer need you have determined. If Flaherty or the young fellow from Japan fall into your lap > wonderful > as otherwise go with what you got and hope the upper end prospects are ready sooner then later.
Fyi I have a strong feeling the boys can play and baseball gods will be done.
Richard in Winnipeg
I just believe they can't go into the the season depending solely on Logan Webb to get to the 7'th inning. I think Flaherty is now going to be overpriced. I would try to sign two out of a pool of Gibson, Heaney, Lorenzen and Quantrill.
Deleteopt out after two years for Burnes with a six year 210 Mill contract...That is a whopper of a contract....
ReplyDeleteDoc, you summed it up perfectly though. The Giants needed Burnes desperately because as of now they have WEBB and about 11 question marks for the rotation.... Still it wasn't looking likely....Part of me understands the reason for not going crazy to sign him but the other part of me can't handle another 2-3 years (at a minimum thinking of this years Top 50) of irrelevance and mediocrity especially in their own division
Is there any way to avoid that? I am not optimistic..T.he Giants should go to the Wall for SASAKI but highly doubtful the Giants will win that one.....Still, they need to try...But they need to proceed like he is not coming....so....To not be one of the worst and more inconsequential teams in the game the coming years,they have to find, as a start, a reliable SP...Not sure that is even available...Do they overpay for the decent FLAHERTY or QUANTRIL?????...Do they sign 1 or 2 of the older high risk starters for high money at 1-2 years??? (one as a mentor to the youngsters might not be a bad idea)????......
And that is only the SP part of the equation, they still desperately need an OFer plus a 1B for one or two years. Do they sign ALONSO which would free up a lot of assets to be traded for SP???
Even with the ADAMES signing, which was good, the Giants are in a very, very bad situations in terms of being a compettive ball club...So much work to do for the Posey regime after being left in such a horrible, horrible place by FZ..I have a hard time seeing light at the end of the tunnel...but am hoping BUSTER knows how to see it and reach it...
SteveVA
Congratulations to Burnes for doing what he wanted, maybe not the best deal for him, but playing "at home" for a team that won 89 games last year and only lost a playoff spot by a tie breaker has to have merit.
ReplyDeleteAlthough AZ lost Walker they did sign Naylor which is a relatively small net loss, and Pederson is gone, but they now have more than credible pitching.
Are they good enough to beat LA? Most probably not, but they did go 6-7 against them last year, so head-to-head they were at least comparable.
AZ was also 6-7 against SD, finishing 4 games back of the Padres. There will be a 3-way race in the NL West, and it will not include SF.
The three teams clustered in the southwest corner of the US will dominate the NL West, the NL, and probably baseball.
Could FZ had done better this off season? No, he most likely couldn't have signed Burnes or Adames, given the apparent financial restraint imposed by Ownership.
The Giants might as well go into rebuild, get what prospects they can for Forever Giant YtY, Wade, the Rogers twins, and whoever doesn't fit into 2026 and beyond.
The Posey era will not begin well.
Funny how Giants ownership didnt want to go over the luxery tax just to finish in 4th again but by not signing Burnes and letting him go to a division rival they have pretty much guarenteed themselves 4th place! Also pretty dissapointing that they still dont realize the impact of state taxes on these massive contracts. You will have to significantly overpay to get someone to accept an offer here over a similar offer somewhere else!
ReplyDeleteI love you Buster but unless you have a Santander, Alonso, or Roki up your sleeve then you arent really interested in fixing this team this year. If it is going to take 3-4 years to be competitive again you may want to tell your fans and probably tank at least this next season and maybe the following. Otherwise you are going to be looked at the same as the last regime who was just trying to break even for the owners.
Burnes is clearly about the money. Opt out after 2yrs (to try to get more money) and saving money via no AZ state income tax. At what point is it enough money, enough money? It's obvious he wasn't too interested in coming to SF. If he was, the income tax issue wouldn't have been an issue. SF (and Toronto) even offered more money. So, screw him and move on. You need guys who want to be here. Snell obviously didn't care either. Better off without him. To change things, we need guys who are dedicated to the city and team.
ReplyDeleteTo beat AZ's $35,000,000/year contract for Burnes the Giants would have exceeded the first luxury tax threshold, according to Fangraphs/Roster Resource: $207,517,143 + $35,000,000 = $242,517,143, which is about a million and a half over $241M.
ReplyDeleteWith the league minimum $760,000 salary, trading a couple minimum wage players or anyone making more than $1½M (which is just about everyone) would have ducked under the threshold.
Perhaps, as many are saying, Burnes didn't want to come to San Francisco. Or California's state taxes are just too high. Or even with Burnes the Giants are a couple players short of a championship. Or Phoenix is home.
Not even a future-Hall of Famer could coax him.
It just wasn't to be.
Corbin Burnes and his wife just had twins and wanted to stay home in Arizona. It sounds like the Dbacks stepped up and made the deal happen but this now puts their payroll in uncharted territory. Gotta give the dbacks a liot of credit, can't blame Burnes for taking Arizona deal, things didn't line up quite right for the Giants, I would think Buster has a plan B to pivot too. Agree that they need to acquire 1 or 2 SP either by FA or trade. Hope that they can upgrade right field. I'd be surprised if a 1st baseman decides to sign with Giants, knowing they have Bryce Eldridge probably in 2026.
ReplyDeleteHaving a succesful offseason is a lot like skinning a cat. There is more than one way to do it and there is still a path for the Giants to have one if they are so inclined. At this point it is going to take Roki and a big bat or two to give them any kind of a chance. If they don’t do any more significant moves then I think we can honestly say that nothing has changed with this team and the owners just pulled the wool over our eyes once again by replacing FZ with Buster. The fans have put up with over 6 years of this crap and not even Buster is going to be able to make this team watchable with out spending more money or pulling of a few miracle trades.
ReplyDeleteOne sportswriter claims Buster texted him that he has faith in the Giants young pitching and will continue to try to upgrade the lineup. I agree they need at least one more bat in the lineup but am doubtful there are enough innings in the young starting pitching.
DeleteI hope thats true! I am actually more bullish than you on our pitching options. We have 5 starters returning with another 4-5 options to sprinkle in or fall back on. I really want to find out if any of these kids are the real deal and it makes sense in several ways to ride with them. Cost of replacements and our ballpark to name a few. Our offense is and always has been our weakness and it is correctable right now if they are willing to spend on bats.
DeleteRoki is the other wild card and I would like to know what other incentives they could get away with including to entice him to come here. Lines may need to be crossed and a little outside the box thinking could give him everything he needs to be as comfortable as a $300 million dollar player wink wink. Make him the king of SF and then give him an offense.
I don't think there is any limit on endorsement deals so they could maybe get creative with Sasaki on those. Of course I am sure other teams are very aware of that too.
DeleteCan they implement a Roki tax on a few of their sponsors that redirects the money into his pocket? Can they give him an apartment across the street from the stadium and a private jet? Stock options? Part ownership? Seriously though its the wild west out there and we need to start taking a few shots
DeleteMost of those ideas would probably be rightly seen by MLB as cheating but I do think they could help facilitate endorsements and sponsorships.
DeleteThe Giants were played by Boris to get the most out of Arizona. Burnes has always relied on a cutter as his trademark pitch, just like Madbum. Now, he's trying to reinvent himself with a slurve. He was successful with it last season ... can it carry him for six more years? And at a price-tag of $35 million per year? Bring on the kids, let's see whether they can grow into big league pitchers. That's what is fun to watch ... I feel like I'm invested in the Giants' younger players and want to root for them to become solid contributors. It really does feel like they've finally got a core of good young talent ... they just need to keep the pipeline flowing. I think that's what Buster was really brought in to accomplish.
ReplyDeleteI also am excited by "the kids" and want to see them get opportunities to become the next generation of "homegrown" stars, but you also have to get through the season. I am doubtful there are 1500 innings in those arms coming into the season. Cainer, Timmy and MadBum had Barry Zito eating innings for them. The current team has Logan Webb eating innings but do we really want to continue to pile on the miles on his arm? IMO, the Giants need at least one more veteran SP who can grind out Quality Starts and get the game to at least the 7'th inning.
DeleteDoc > Early in my bamking career > one of my clients made a horrible financial decision going against the advice he asked me to provide. > I was profoundly frustrated and sad for my client and his family. > I went into my Managers office and told him my clients story etc >Then asked my Manager "why did he (my client) do that ?" > My Manager replied very dryly "Richard why do peopple do anything?" > At first I did not understand, but over time realized that my Manager was so profoundly correct. > Why do people do anything?
ReplyDeletePeople moaning that if Buster does not sign anyone they feel is a significant add > is no better than Farhan.
Give me a break > people will do what they thing is right for them at the time > Time will bare out whether it was the right thing to do
Buster will do everything he can to do what is right for the Giants.
I say give Buster time!!
Richard in Winnipeg
My profession consisted entirely of providing advice to people who often chose to not follow it. While on some level being good at giving advice involves being persuasive, you can't convince everybody. In building a MLB roster, there are a limited number of sources of players: Farm system, free agents and trades. Right now it seems there are more available roster spots than good players so it's a seller's market and competition is fierce. POBO's and GM's are working with the same or similar information all the others have and to some extent the information you and I have. It's a tough, tough job! Out of 30 teams, only one wins the World Series in any given year so if that is your one singular goal you are in for a whole lot of failure. Not saying you shouldn't try to win the World Series but a more reasonable goal might be to build a team that contends on a yearly basis to increase your chances rather than building a team for one big run. Not sure what all that has to do with Buster Posey and his approach to roster building but I found in the various lower level administrative jobs I held, It helped immensely to define your mission, goals and objectives and do it in real, practical terms rather than the usual administrative language you see in those statements.
DeleteAlonso played in all 162 Mets' games last year with a 2.9 oWAR (Baseball-Reference). A RHB, his splits against RHP are almost as good as against lefties.
ReplyDeleteWith Alonso, Eldridge can be brought along naturally, and ultimately one can be used as a DH, which may fit the defensively challenged Alonso. If he wants it, an FZ opt-out after a couple years (Alonso is 30 yo) could be good for both sides.
Even signing him, the Giants can still look for a #5 starter to eat innings.
I would welcome an Alonso signing if Buster and his team think he fits in their payroll structure both short and longterm.
DeleteI would prefer Santander but so far not much news has come out regarding his market. He is a little better of an all around hitter than Alonso, switch hitter, and can play a little OF as well. If he is asking for over $200 mil then I can understand why we haven’t heard much but henisna lot like Adames in that he has proven himself over the last few years without being a “superstar”. Is it more risky throwing a ton of money at guys like these or the big name FA’s who everyone knows since they were rookies? Gotta admit our lineup would look really good with him in the middle…
DeleteI like your idea, Doc -- Giants can still salvage their offseason by signing two pitchers from the remaining field of Gibson, Heaney, Lorenzen and Quantrill ... plus a bat. Three more signings wouldn't totally bust their budget. Buster still has some moves left.
ReplyDeleteI’m not sold on spending money for mediocre SP’s that aren’t going to do much more than eat innings and block our young arms. We have potentially one of the best bullpens in baseball in a pitchers ballpark with more SP depth than most teams. Over half that depth is unproven but they are also a year older and the more back end rotation free agent starters they sign the less of a chance we can see what Winn, Black, Beck, Hjelle, Seymour, and Whisenhunt can do. Thats assuming our rotation consists of Webb, Ray, Hicks, Harrison, and Birdsong which isn’t terrible. Sign another big bat or two and lets ride with these arms at least for a few months and make a trade at that point if needed. If we all of a sudden have an offense that puts up 5-6 runs a game we don’t need these kids to be perfect.
DeleteA veteran SP who eats innings is not going to block young arms it will help develop them.
DeletePlaying around with a 1 in 30 chance of getting Roki Sasaki when you already have Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez hooked up and ready to land seems foolish and greedy to me.
ReplyDeleteI will not be a happy Giants fan if they end up failing to sign both Gonzalez and Sasaki.
DeleteAssuming nothing will happen today or tomorrow, 2024 ends with these moves by SF :
DeleteAAA+: signed free agent SS Willy Adames!
And the rest of the signings this offseason:
free agent RHP Nien-Hsi Yang to a minor league contract
free agent RHP Mario Gonzalez to a minor league contract
free agent RHP Carlos Toro to a minor league contract
free agent LHP Antonio Jimenez to a minor league contract
free agent LHP Raymond Burgos to a minor league contract
free agent RHP Kai-Wei Teng to a minor league contract
free agent LHP Ethan Small to a minor league contract
free agent SS Sergio Alcántara to a minor league contract
free agent C Max Stassi to a minor league contract
free agent RHP Juan Mercedes to a minor league contract
free agent RHP Joel Peguero to a minor league contract
free agent C Logan Porter to a minor league contract
As AZ found out, 89 wins don't guarantee a spot in the post season. And giving up more runs than you score isn't going to get a team in the playoffs either.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants have a lot of improving to do to even get to 89 wins: Adames will help but he doesn't cover the combined WAR of the Free Agents who left.
Webb with help from the Baseball Gods will get his 33 starts, but Harrison, Hicks, Birdsong, and Ray combined for just 67: leaving 62 to cover in 2025. Burnes might have made a dent in that but even with him, the Giants wouldn't win 9 more games without some comebacks from the rest. It could have happened, but the way to get there now isn't apparent.
Well, getting over .500 could be the first goal.
2021 proved you can't just add up projected WARs and know how many games you are going to win. Good players can make other players around them better. Say Burnes and Webb combine for 66 starts and Harrison, Birdsong, Hicks and Ray add 4 starts each to last year's total. That leaves just 13 starts which can easily be covered by Winn, Black, Beck, Roupp, etc.
DeleteEssentially Sports ran a piece that hinted that the Burnes non-signing was caused by the downturn in the real estate market. Too much money tied up in the Giants' Mission Rock project while the price of mid-tier condos has dropped and flooded the market. Mission Rock was potentially a $3 billion project but it might have become a millstone around the Giants' necks.
ReplyDeleteThe ownership group's business model from the day Peter Magowan et all purchased the team was to run it at an operating profit except possibly in rare occasons. I am not aware that model has ever changed. I am not going to criticized that model. They won 3 World Series with it and they can again. They need to make better baseball decisions and have chosen Buster Posey to be the man to do it.
DeleteEven Susan Slusser reports they made an offer to Burnes at the Winter Meetings. National reporters say they offered more guaranteed money than the D'Backs. What we don't know is if the offer included deferred money to try to stay under the cap or if it included opt-outs. I am guessing yes and no respectively. Also reading between lines, I think Buster and ownership feel the opt-out contracts FZ signed did not serve the Giants well and they are now just saying no.
DeleteSusan Slusser later reported that she was told the Giants offer was lower then Dbacks offer refuting national reporters. Dont like how the reports were all over the place on Burnes. I remember Flem saying a couple weeks ago on KNBR not to discount that Buster and not the owners may have been against a long term deal for a pitcher. A poster mentioned earlier that owners hired Buster to make good short and long term baseball decisions. Who knows not signing Burnes may turn out to be a good long term decision I agree Giants could use 1 more veteran starting pitcher on a cheaper 1 year deal to go with Webb, Ray, Hicks, + Harrison. There are options Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney, and what about a Max Scherzer or justin Verlander. Actually Baggs mentioned those 2 in an earlier article.
DeleteWith the Burnes negotiation, I'm betting it was Mrs. Burnes that cast the deciding vote. Get the money close enough and then get our family to a place where we don't have to move it again until the kids are mostly on their own. The Giants could have offered the moon and the stars and it wouldn't have been enough. The Burnes already have a house in AZ and it's tremendously disruptive to have dad gone almost all the time or to be living out of a suitcase when you are trying to get kids off to school or bought-in to a community. All that burden is on Mom when dad is away and as such, I'm betting mom gets a very large vote. As someone above mentioned, at some point a contract for generational wealth is enough, irrespective of the state taxes or anything else.
ReplyDelete