Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets and a man with very deep pockets, put all that money to use by agreeing to sign Juan Soto OF to a record-breaking contract for 15 yrs/$765 M with escalators to an ultimate potential value of over $800 M. This tops the absolute dollar amount of Shohei Ohtani's contract by $65 M in guaranteed money but most of Ohtani's contract is deferred which in MLB accounting makes it worth only about $470 M. Since none of Soto's money is deferred, he now has the richest contract in baseball history and by $ several hundred million. The contract does have an opt-out after 2029 season. Does anybody care?
As I have said before, I don't think there is any point in clucking about whether Soto or any ballplayer is worth this much money or whether his contract will place limits on future team spending. It's obvious at least some MLB owners have, for all practical purposes, unlimited amounts of money to spend and they are going to spend it.
The other side of that coin though is the Dodgers apparently do have a limit after all. Though they already spent a lot of money this offseason and may well spend more, another team ended up with Juan Freaking Soto and the Dodgers so far have two injury prone Giants castoffs. Which brings us to Michael Conforto. Their is something satisfyingly symbolic that immediately after the Soto deal went down, we learned the Dodgers will sign Michael Conforto to a 1 yr/$17 M contract, which is not $51 M/yr but it's not nothing either. I'll have to get back to you about why the Dodgers would want Michael Conforto, a player who was incredibly disappointing in his two years with the Giants.
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The more I think about the Giants signing Willy Adames, the more I am impressed by how Buster Posey got that deal done. Don't forget that not only does Buster have personal knowledge of how players think about free agency, he also hired his own agent as an advisor to add an even stronger player/agent perspective to the process. The comparison to FZ's completely tone-deaf and apparently off-putting approach is so striking.
No matter how good a player is or what their market value is, players are human and human's need to feel wanted when they form relationships. Nobody wants to be someone else's second choice. This is all speculation, of course, but it looks like Buster's approach worked on two levels: 1. He let Adames know Adames was his first choice from Day 1 of free agency and Juan Soto was not a factor in Buster's priorities. 2. Buster knew that as soon as the Soto shoe dropped, several other teams would immediately pivot to Adames, including the Dodgers who were also an obvious fit, possibly driving his price out of the Giants comfort zone. Buster did not want to climb down the same ladder FZ did so many times. In making Adames feel wanted Buster was able to get ahead of the market and get the deal he had to make done. Very impressive work there but the Giants new President of Baseball Operations!
Conforto WAS a disappointment, but weren't 7 of his 20 HRs on the road? I would think a lot of teams would look at that.
ReplyDeleteYes, Conforto's home/road splits were quite dramatic and 17 of his 20 HR's were on the road.
DeleteWoohaa!!! What baseball news to wake up to. Agree with you on the praise for the Giants getting Adames on all counts. I prefer to have Soto on the Mets as the Yankees rank only behind my disdain for the Dodgers. I am looking forward to analysis of why LA would sign Conforto. Teoscar Hernandez must be cashing in elsewhere for more money or something we don't know about.. Conforto's OPS of under .718 and .759 while never getting over 500 PAs did not enamor the fanbase. Now go out and get a SP.
ReplyDeleteDoc, no clucking here > but since you have shown success with foretelling the future > this contract as nasty as it is > will be so so nasty within 2 years > Soto ain't no Baby Bull > watching him at bat and running down to first > attitude attitude > he is not a leader > Good luck Steve!
ReplyDeleteLove your review on Buster V Farhan's approach!
Richard in Winnipeg
Very hypothetical question: with Soto's contract more than 2x what Judge got only 2 years ago (and Ohtani last year got almost 2x), what if SF had stayed in the bidding for Arson until Johnson ran out of money?
ReplyDeleteSoto is only 26 years old. But what is a 15-year contract? It is a form of deferred money (and I am afraid it assumes high inflation). There should be a limit on the window of payment.
ReplyDeleteHi Doc,
ReplyDeleteI know I am late to the Adames discussion. But I will go on record as being a skeptic for the move. The Giants overpaid on a $ to WAR figure of 13m per WAR where the going rate has around 10m.
The team probably thought they would have to overpay a hitter to come to SF and maybe that was true. But given the $ difference I probably would have gone for Kim -- whose skillset I think will age better and will require a shorter term deal.
Furthermore, this team is not an Adames away from competing. Especially when Willy will deliver his premium value in the next couple of years when the Giants are unlikely to be contenders. I suspect the Giants might be entering 2018 territory where they are signing a few contracts to open/extend a window that is shut. Especially if it is the case that they are shedding payroll this year.
TL;DR I suspect we are in for another mediocre year while at the same time the team is reducing its future payroll flexibility in the process.
Best,
Fan
I would agree on Kim EXCEPT, he's got a bad shoulder with no guarantees it will ever by good enough to play SS again. Buster had to upgrade SS and Adames was the only viable upgrade on the market.
DeleteI also don't agree with your value calculations. Adames averaged 4.2 fWAR over his last 3 seasons. $26 M AAV/4.2= $6.2 M/fWAR.
I agree that Adames all by himself does not make the Giants an automatic postseason team but you have to start somewhere and he is a worthy building block.
...and if you prefer bWAR, Adames has earned 3.0 and 3.1 bWAR over the last 2 seasons. $26 M AAV/3.1 bWAR= $8.4 M/bWAR. So I am not sure where you get your $13 M/WAR from.
DeleteI used the total projected WAR Adames is projected for over the life of the contract.
DeleteTo quote the Fangraphs article on the signing:
"The dollar figure is intriguing; as much as we here at FanGraphs like Adames, Ben predicted a five-year, $145 million payday for the former Brewer. Our median crowdsource estimate came in at six years and $150 million — a higher overall dollar figure but a lower AAV. Seven years and $182 million is $26 million per year, or Ben’s number plus two years at $13.5 million each, if you want to think of it that way."
If you are going to use projected WAR, nobody gets full value out of a long term contract. If you want full value we should bring back FZ and keep shopping in the "Brebbia aisle." What is Juan Soto's projected $/WAR?
DeleteTotally understand Doc! When I wrote this comment thread I also realized I sounded a lot like Farhan. I think the area where Farhan and I differ is he thought he could thread the needle and contend while developing. I actually think the Giants should just be a 500ish or sub 500ish team and determine if they have a position player core worth investing in. I don't know if its worth adding Adames to likely be the 4th best team in the NL West all over again.
DeleteTo answer your question I believe the Juan Soto deal is more like a projected 11m per WAR so actually more efficient. Though obviously at a much higher downside risk.
Again, I am not sure what you are using for projections but per Fangraphs, Soto has only outearned his AAV in 2 seasons. Maybe at age 26 he is still on an upward trajectory in yearly WAR value but he appears to be already regressing defensively and on the basepaths. Then there are his age 36-40 seasons....
DeleteAs for developing. You can't develop at team solely from within or from free agency. You need both. You hope to get surplus value from your homegrown players and anticipate negative value from your free agents, especially if they are signed long term.
It was shocking 20 years ago when ARod signed for 10 and 252 but at least he was a 5 tool player. Soto is not even close to that and getting 3 times that amount is stupid and irresponsible even for one of the richest idiots in the world. Glad we aren’t stuck with that and really happy with Adames no matter how it turns out
ReplyDeleteIf the season started today, the Giants are already better than the start of last season, on the field, at bat, and on the mound (SPs, RPs, and closer).
ReplyDeleteMaybe not for DH: wasn't Soler more promising than Encarnación?
DeleteOr Flores, McCray, Schmitt, Luciano, Matos, Meckler, Wisely, Sabol, Villar, ?