The Hot Stove League has not seen many old-fashioned "blockbuster" trades the past few seasons because teams became severely averse to giving up top prospects for "rentals" of star players about to hit free agency. Yesterday we saw the second blockbuster of this season when the Astros traded Kyle Tucker OF to the Cubs for two players with MLB experience and one of their top prospects. Let's break it down:
Going to Cubs:
Kyle Tucker OF: DOB: 1/17/1997. B-L, T-R. 6' 4", 212 lbs. Drafted 2018 Round 1, 5'th overall. 3'rd year arb eligible. Free agent 2025/2026.
2024: .289/.408/.585, 23 HR, 11 SB, 16.5 BB%, 15.9 K%, 339 PA, 4.2 fWAR.
Tucker missed significant time last season with a fractured tibia but did come back in September to hit .365 so appears free of injury worries next season. He is obviously an excellent, consistent player putting up fWAR's of 5.0, 4.9 and 5.0 in the years 2021-2023. He likely would have gotten close to 8 fWAR in 2024 without the injury. The problem is he only has one more season of team control of his contract. As a Scott Boras client he will almost certainly resist efforts to extend his contract and will one of the most sought after free agents next Hot Stove League season.
Going to Astros:
Isaac Paredes IF: DOB: 2/18/1999. B-R, T-R. 5' 11", 213 lbs. First year arb eligble. Free Agent 2027/2028.
2024(2 teams): .238/.346/.393, 19 HR, 11.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, 641 PA, 3.4 fWAR.
Originally signed by the Cubs in 2015, Paredes has already been involved in 4 major trades: Cubs to Tigers with Jeimer Candelario for Alex Avila C and Justin Wilson LHP, Tiger to Rays for Austin Meadows OF and Rays to Cubs for Ty Johnson RHP, Hunter Bigge RHP and Chris Morel IF/OF/DH. Per MLBTR, Sarah Langs did a spray chart for Paredes and found he would have hit 26 HR's in 2024 if he played his home games in Houston. Now Cubs to Astros.
Hayden Wesneski RHP. DOB: 12/5/1997. 6'3", 210 lbs. Pre-arb. Arb eligible 2026. FA 2030.
2024: 3-6, 3.86, 67.2 IP, 8.91 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.2 fWAR.
Wesneski was an effective swingman for the Cubs starting 7 of his 28 appearances(Opener?). He comes with many years of team control.
Cam Smith 3B. DOB: 2/22/2003. B-R, T-R. Drafted 2024 Round 1, #14 overall.
2024(A): .313/.404/.771, 6 HR, 14.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 57 PA.
2024(A+): .333/.421/.500, HR, 10.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, 57 PA.
2024(AA): .263/.300/.474, 5.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 20 PA.
Already a very fast riser, Smith probably needs to start 2025 in AA but could see the majors by mid-late season depending on how he responds in his first full pro season.
Summary:
Probably a good trade for both teams. Cubs get the best current player, by far, but only for one season. This move likely signals that the Astros are entering another tear-down/rebuild phase after several tumultuous years of contention including a cheating scandal for prohibited use of electronic equipment to steal signs. They get 3 players who can all be solid parts to that rebuild. Does the acquisition of Tucker by the Cubs make a trade of Cody Bellinger OF and/or Seiya Suzuki OF more or less likely?
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Cubs also signed Carson Kelly C to a 2 yr/$11.5 M contract. Kelly was once a top catching prospect but has had a disappointing MLB career so far. He hit .238/.313/.374 last season for two teams. Kelly was someone I was hoping the Giants would sign as a back up or co-catcher to Patrick Bailey. He will likely share catching duties with Miguel Amaya in Chicago.
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The Yankees acquired Devin Williams RHP in a trade with the Brewers for Nestor Cortes LHP and Caleb Durbin IF. Let's break this one down:
Yankees get:
Devin Williams RHP. DOB: 9/21/1994. 6' 2", 193 lbs. 3'rd yr arb eligible. Free Agent 2025/2026.
2024: 1-0, 1.25, 21.2 IP, 15.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 14 Saves, 0.8 fWAR
Williams is an elite Closer when healthy. He missed time with injuries in 2024. Yanks bullpen came just a bit short in the postseason so that's what his acquisition is all about.
Brewers get:
Nestor Cortes LHP. DOB: 12/10/1994. 5'11", 210 lbs. 3'rd yr arb eligible. Free Agent 2025/2026.
2024: 9-10, 3.77, 174.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.1 fWAR.
Caleb Durbin IF. DOB: 2/22/2000. B-R, T-R. 5' 6", 185 lbs. Drafted by Braves 14'th round in 2021.
2024(AAA): .287/.396/.471, 10 HR, 29 SB, 12.5 BB%, 9.9 K%.
Yankees also send $2 M to the Brewers.
Summary: In terms of WAR value, a mid-rotation SP who racks up 170 IP is more valuable than even an elite Closer but Blown Saves can have an extremely pernicious impact on an entire team and that is amplified in the postseason as the Yankees found out the hard way in 2024. Both of the main players in this trade will be free agents after one more season so that part is even. The Brewers also get a MLB-ready IF whose small stature may work to his advantage in terms of strike zone control. I give the Brewers a narrow win in this trade.
As a baseball fans these are exciting trades, as a fan of the CUbs and Yanks you have to apprecite and applaud their team doing what it takes to win now rather then build for a future 3 years down the line..Yanks are also tied to Bellinger right now
ReplyDeleteLoved Posey's move for ADAMES and hope he has one more in him for BURRES..then he can trade some young pitchers/players for help at 1B and OF....Sucks to have to wait!!! :)
steveVA
Yup, the good part of the Adames signing is it popped out of nowhere so its a pleasant surprise.. The Burnes pursuit is starting to drag, which takes away part of the excitement if it happens. As for the outfield, maybe sign Austin Hays as a FA. Right handed hitter, scouting report says above average power and defender. He can play all three OF positions. I think he had a major injury last season though
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