Thursday, December 12, 2024

Hot Stove League Update: Red Sox Sell Farm For Garrett Crochet; Giants Play Rule 5 Musical Chairs

While rumors of Corbin Burnes RHP possibly signing with the Giants heated up, the Red Sox traded half their farm system for Garrett Crochet sending 4 prospects including their last two first round draft picks to the White Sox.  Let's break it down:

Garrett Crochet LHP:  DOB:  6/21/1999.  6' 6", 245 lbs.  Service Time:  4 years.  Options:  3.  Arbitration Eligible:  Now.  Free Agent:  2027(2 years of team control remaining).

2024:  6-12, 3.58, 146 IP, 12.88 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.25 GB/FB, 14.4 HR/FB%, 2.69 FIP, 97.2 vFA, 4.7 fWAR.

Crochet had a breakout season in 2024 after missing all of 2022 and much of 2023 with Tommy John surgery.  The Red Sox gain control of his contract for 2 seasons through arbitration eligibility.  The ceiling is obvious but without a track record of sustained health and success.  Comps to Chris Sale are obvious but Sale had a much longer record of success before the Red Sox acquired him.  

Kyle Teel C:  DOB:  2/15/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 190 lbs.  Drafted first round #14 in 2023.

2024(AA):  .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 9 SB, 12.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 382 PA.
2024(AAA):  .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 23.6 K%, 123 PA.

Athletic for a catcher with elite plate discipline, more gap power than HR power.  Should make his MLB debut in 2024, possibly as early as Opening Day.  Candidate for ROY.

Braden Montgomery OF:  DOB:  4/16/2003.  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 220 lbs.  Drafted first round #12 overall in 2024.

2024(College):  .322/.454/.733, 27 HR, 5 SB, 53 BB, 59 K, 295 PA.

2-way college player who transferred from Stanford to Texas A&M for his junior season.  Drafted as an OF.  Had surgery to repair a fractured ankle suffered during the college playoffs so did not appear in any pro games.  One of several big-time college hitters in the 2024 draft.

Chase Meidroth IF.  DOB:  7/23/2001.  B-R, T-R.  5' 10", 170 lbs.  Drafted 2022 round 4.  

2024(AAA):  .293/.437/.401, 7 HR, 13 SB, 18.8 BB%, 12.7 K%, 558 PA.

Played most innings at SS and second most at 3B so apparently has the arm for the left side of IF.  Elite plate discipline.  Coming off a full season of AAA experience, should be able to start at some position on Opening Day.

Wikelman Gonzalez RHP.  DOB:  3/15/2002.  6' 0", 167 lbs.  

2024(AA):  4-3, 4.73, 83.2 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.95 BB/9.

High walk rate suggests reliever risk or need for further development.  No scouting report but seems to be a hard thrower.

Summary:  The Red Sox get 2 years of control of an elite LHP with a limited track record of success.  It's unclear that the BoSox are at a place where one elite pitcher makes them contenders.  The White Sox are coming off one of the worse seasons in MLB history and are in desperate need of rebuilding. They get a huge haul of prospects which we rarely see in trades anymore.

***********************************************************************************

Yesterday the Rule 5 Draft was held.  Most of you know I am not a fan of the Rule 5 Draft which I believe to be more disruptive than benificial to both players and teams although there occasional success stories.  The Giants did not make a selection and did not lose any players in the major league phase.  There was a lot more action in the minor league phase but with questionable impact.  The Giants lose 6 players who probably did not figure to ever make their 40-man MLB roster and they gained 2 players who now have one season to prove they deserve to be added to the 40-man before next year's Rule 5 Draft. Note that unlike the major league phase, in the minor league phase the drafted players do not have to stay on the AAA roster and do not have to be offered back to their previous team so these transactions are final.

Players Lost:  

Wil Jensen RHP(AA)
Cesar Quintas OF(A+)
Julio Rodriguez RHP(AA)
Will Wilson SS(AA)
Andy Thomas C(AA)
Nick Swiney LHP(AA)

The most notable development here is probably the end of the Will Wilson saga.  If you recall one of the first big moves FZ made as POBO, was to essentially buy a second first round draft prospect for the cost of Zach Cozart's $12 M contract which was immediately dumped as a sunk cost.  Wilson just never found any traction on his pro career despite a lot of patience from the Giants.

Players Gained:  

C. J. Widger LHP:  DOB: 5/25/1999.  6'6", 170 lbs.  

2024(A):  3-4, 4.60, 29.1 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, 3 Saves.
2024(A+): 2-1, 6.30, 10 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.40 BB/9.

Son of former MLB catcher Chris Widger.  Love the height Very good K rates but walk rates too high.  Could be a MLB lefty reliever if he can find a way to cut those down just a bit.

Sadrac Franco RHP:  DOB:  6/4/2000.  6' 0", 155 lbs.

2024(ACL):  2-0, 2.61, 10.1 IP, 7.84 K/9, 5.23 BB/9.
2024(A):  0-1, 1.08, 8.1 IP, 17.28 K/9, 3.24 BB/9.

Has never pitched above A ball.

Summary:  Don't hold your breath until any of these players make it to the major leagues.

7 comments:

  1. Ben Kaspick of Locked on Giants mentioned that Pavs tweeted some juicy stuff about the Giants and Corbin Burnes on Wednesday.. Some bullet points: Burnes told some Giants players that he wants to play for the Giants before free agency started. Giants officials as of Wednesday night are "cautiously optimistic " about the Giants chances of landing Burnes. I take what pavs says more seriously then the national writers. Burnes would be a great signing but that's a lot of $ and years for any pitching contract to give out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Should the Giants roll the dice and overpay for Burnes — by a lot?
      The contract likely will look pretty bad by beaucoup millions per year after, what, 4? 5? 6? years.
      "Two executives" predict that the right-hander could receive more than $240 million over eight years!
      Fangraphs (Roster Resource) projects the Giants are about $33M below the luxury tax at this moment. Should they use it up and carry it into 2030's?

      Delete
  2. Would like to add that the new regime has convinced I ownership to spend more then they had planned to spebd.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Wilson is going to a winner which probably won't help him much. Too bad the Angels didn't take him (back).

    ReplyDelete
  4. I still want back Frankie Tostado, whom they lost last year. Best name in the system.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Good article on Posey's roll in signing Adames:
    https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/buster-posey-willy-adames-analysis-contract/1812890/
    No pay wall either!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Let's Go Thairo! Well he is gone to Colorado. One of my favorite Giants over the past few years. He declined steadily and was often injured which led to numbers going downhill. For his career, Estrada has slashed .348./.406/.565 at altitude, which is impressive even for Coors Field. I wish him well and look forward to watching him play at Coors.

    ReplyDelete