Let's roll out the preliminary Top 50 prospect list and see what I missed or messed up on. A couple of notes before we get to the list:
I know several commenters expressed support for Carson Whisenhunt LHP. Although I like him as a prospect I don't think he quite has the ceiling of some of the younger guys and so rank him just a bit lower but still in the top 10. Yes, I am aware of Josuar Gonzalez SS. He will slot in at #2 when/if he signs which I will believe when I see it. Finally, there is a fairly long list of players drafted in 2024 who did not make an appearance in a pro game yet. I feel like at this point I just don't have enough information to rank them. I expect some of them to make next year's list. I just don't know which ones.
1. Bryce Eldridge 1B
2. Grant McCray OF
3. Trevor McDonald RHP
4. James Tibbs III
5. Jhonny Level SS
6. Rayner Arias OF
7. Carson Whisenhunt LHP
8. Mason Black RHP
9. Diego Velasquez SS/2B
10. Lisbel Diaz OF
11. Wade Meckler OF
12. Joe Whitman LHP
13. Charlie Szykowny IF
14. Carter Howell OF
15. Sabin Ceballos 3B
16. Bo Davidson OF
17. Dakota Jordan OF
18. John Bertrand LHP
19. Trent Harris RHP
20. Tyler Myrick RHP
21. Juan Sanchez LHP
22. Jack Choate LHP
23. Nick Sinacola RHP
24. Justin Wishkoski 3B
25. Victor Bericoto OF/1B
26. Aeverson Arteaga SS
27. Hayden Wynja LHP
28. Manuel Mercedes RHP
29. Onil Perez C
30. Cesar Perdomo LHP
31. Jonah Cox OF
32. Quinn McDaniel 2B
33. Josh Bostick RHP
34. Scott Bandura OF
35. Cale Lansville RHP
36. Gerelmi Maldonado RHP
37. Ryan Vanderhei RHP
38. Elijah Pleasants RHP
39. Shane Rademacher RHP
40. Drew Cavanaugh C
41. Jeremiah Jenkins 1B
42. Zander Darby SS
43. Robert Hipwell 3B
44. Maui Ahuna SS
45. Jakob Christian OF
46. Jose Ortiz OF
48. Alix Hernandez RHP
49. Hunter Bishop OF
50. Will Bednar RHP
Walker Martin?
ReplyDeleteYep, will have to add him.
DeleteYa know, when you asked for our thoughts on the #2, the guys I mentioned were the ones you put at #3 to #7..I honestly totally forgot bout McCray!! I have always been a big supporter, still am, but think he might end up being a toolsy player who is less than the sum of his parts...Still I would have him in that mix for 2 to 7...Wish we had another can't miss impact player to go along with ELDRIDGE!...Also, pretty sad how poorly the FZ regime handles LUCIANNO who has kinda been devalued into a run of the mill prospect very quickly.
ReplyDeleteEven sadder is the total decay and disappearance of Vaun Brown who many used to have in the top 15 and was favorite of Will Clark.
The only guys I can see missing who MIGHT deserrve a spot if they are still SF Giant property are Carson SEYMOUR (and mybe the other guys we got from the Mets) and Jairio POMARES
I look forward to your follow up posts!!
SteveVA
Luciano is officially graduated otherwise he would still be Top 10. I think a lot of people forget about McCray because they think he graduated but I double checked his eligibility. Vaun Brown's career appears to be derailed due to injuries which is nobody's fault. Seymour must be added.
DeleteI think I missed Ragsdale too.
DeleteMaybe I can list three Carsons in a row with Rags and Seymour right after The Whiz?
DeleteWill that push B & B off the top 50?
DeleteDid they belong?
No, I am saving the last two spots for Bishop and Bednar which might mean I should rank them higher but as I have said many times, don't get too hung up on the exact rankings here. The goal of this exercise is to get to know the players on the farm better.
DeleteThanks Doc for this list, it gives me something to ruminate on during the winter. I wonder about Trevor McDonald at #3. Honestly, I don't know much about him except that he threw 3 scoreless innings the last game of the year. I would appreciate any info you may have about him.
ReplyDeleteI've seen McDonald pitch. He's got a mid-90's FB that induces a lot of groundballs. He also has a very good breaking ball and a decent changeup. Very hard to separate him from Whiz, Rags and Seymour but he's pitched those 3 innings FWIW. I'm using that as the reason to give him an edge.
DeleteIs Trevor McDonald being the highest ranked pitcher a good thing (he's the most ready) or a bad thing (HE is the BEST Giants' pitching prospect)?
ReplyDeleteOr, is it that the Giants brought up so many pitchers who are now not prospects, McDonald should have been brought up earlier than the final game of the year?
The Giants "graduated" a bunch of young pitchers last season. I would say McDonald is probably the next in line which gives him the edge on the next graduating class by a hair.
DeleteDoc,
ReplyDeleteI’ve been reflecting on this for a while: ownership is the cornerstone of any sports team. Owners shape the culture, direction, and limitations of an organization.
It’s time to ask whether Greg Johnson’s era of Giants ownership has been a failure. While Bobby Evans and Farhan Zaidi often take the blame, much of it likely stems from ownership constraints. Though Johnson doesn’t have unilateral control due to the Giants’ ownership structure, as the board’s point man, his role is to lead and persuade—key responsibilities for any organizational leader.
It’s perplexing that a team in Silicon Valley’s backyard, a global hub of innovation and economic power, can’t either:
A. Compete financially with teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets; or
B. Cannot invest in its talent. Letting a huge brain drain occur because of constraints in cutting of staff.
This reflects ownership’s approach. Under Johnson, the Giants seem to operate more like his company Franklin Templeton—focused on stability—than like a bold, risk-embracing Silicon Valley company.
Maybe it’s time to call for new ownership—someone with Silicon Valley vision and pockets to transform the Giants into a dynamic, high-risk, high-reward organization.
- Fan
As I said in response to a comment on another post, the Giants business model from the day Peter Magowan bought the team with a group of investors has been to have a small operating profit from year to year with rare exceptions so nothing has changed. I am not going to criticize that model. They won 3 World Series under it and they can again. They need to make better baseball decisions. Buster is the guy they chose to do just that. It's up to him now. Oh, and MLB needs a stronger commissioner who will call BS on a contract like Ohtani's that obviously found a loophole in the Basic Agreement and is not in the best interest of the game. I also think there has to be some natural price for the Dodgers to pay down the road like they must at least be losing draft picks and international bonus pool money which will eventually throttle their ability to produce homegrown talent???
DeleteDoc..I just don't know if that business model can bring home the ultimate winner anymore...Pretty much money and stars now...Astute scouting/prospect analysis/home grown team building can only take you so far these days..
DeleteBut all that doesn't matter to the Giants now..what matters is breaking the chains form the inept team building of FZ and his striving for mediocrity..but if you don't break from that model..end results might just be the same...Thought Adames was a start..we'll see..
SteveVA
I don't know that I agree with the notion that FZ strove for "mediocrity." He did some really good thinks like finding guys on the rebound like Gausman and Rodon. Despite some bad luck with first round picks, his drafts were noticeably better than the previous 5-6 years under the Evans/Barr regime. The international market started to be a lot more active and a lot more promising players. I think The Churn became a distraction and for a guy who was supposedly an "analytics" whiz he didn't seem to understand the concept of sample size in player evaluation. He also didn't seem to be able to judge which "rebound" players were keepers and which were just "rebound" guys. And he was a really poor communicator. Still too early to know if Buster is an improvement on all that although I am impressed by the Adames signing.
DeleteAnd I continue to believe that the CBT threshold is plenty of money to win with if you are making good baseball decisions.
DeleteI have to respectfully disagree with you, Doc, for a few reasons:
DeleteWhile the Giants’ ownership group was probably among the top five in the 2010s, ownership groups in baseball—particularly at the top end—have become stronger, especially in the NL West. The Giants’ ownership group is now likely average to slightly above average by comparison.
While I understand the owners’ desire for stable profits, I believe this approach demonstrates a failure to invest in several ways:
1. Losing as an Investment
Losing can be seen as an investment—a trade-off of current ticket sales for future ticket sales, with the expectation that draft picks and trades will eventually lead to a competitive team. While I’m not advocating for a full-scale rebuild (but that is a higher risk investment), the fact that Farhan Zaidi (FZ) didn’t make efficient baseball moves, like trading Rodón or Snell, suggests an organizational unwillingness to absorb some short-term losses in order to invest in the future.
2. Paying the Luxury Tax Consistently
Paying the luxury tax is another form of investment—essentially trading current profits for potential playoff bonuses, next season excitement, and long term fan base building. This was evident during the 2021-22 offseason when the Giants largely stood still in free agency. That offseason likely represented their best chance to add star power, but the team’s risk aversion, compounded by COVID-related uncertainty, prevented them from making significant moves. FZ even acknowledged this in an interview with Tim Kawakami.
These limitations create a narrow window for any front office to succeed. They can neither make the best baseball decisions—such as trading away talent or enduring a down year—nor do they have the flexibility to pursue mega-star signings.
In a league with increasingly smart ownership willing to do both, like Steve Cohen (a prime example of someone willing to lose in the short term also being able to go over the lux tax), makes me fear the Giants are being left behind.
— Fan
I have let you say your peace but I will never advocate for ownership to operate at a loss and I believe with good baseball decisions you can win championships with a payroll that stays at or a little under the CBT threshold. I do agree that FZ made poor baseball decisions at the trade deadlines when he needed to either be a significant buyer or seller. Instead he always stood pat or even "half sold" like last year when he dumped Soler but held onto Snell.
DeleteThe only thing Steve Cohen is a prime example of is someone who should not own a MLB team. Look up The New Yorker Oct 6, 2015 article Inside the Biggest-Ever Hedge-Fund Scandal.
DeleteThanks for letting me say my peace doc. Yes Steve cohen is a total slime ball agreed.
Delete- Fan
The Giants tried to push through the Mission Rock Project about eight years ago and hinted that Mission Rock was going to help funding for the Giants. The ballot measure involved tax breaks and infrastructure so the city had a lot invested in it. After they got ballot approval, Greg Johnson said "maybe it will buy us a second baseman" and at that point, it was clear that Mission Rock was not intended to be a cash cow for the baseball club. With the middle-tier condo market crashing, it may actually be a money pit for the Giants. We probably need to distinguish between the Giants Baseball Operations and ballpark and the Giants as real estate moguls. The real estate side seems to affect the baseball side and there was definitely a change in attitude once they got the ballot approval. I'm not advocating that the baseball teams operate and lose money but they will lose more money long term if the product on the field is mediocre and boring.
DeleteBaseball clubs are not just the team and ballpark anymore. The Dodgers and Yankees are now media conglomerates and sell their brands heavily overseas. The teams associated with the Diamond Media crash are hurting. As you pointed out, the Mets are actually a hedge fund group.
IDK enough about the details of the Giants finances or the ownership group's non-baseball business interests to really comment one way or another. I just reject the general notion that ownership is obligated to operate at a loss or are obligated to spend more on payroll than the CBT threshold. That's my rough measuring stick. If the Giants payroll was $100 M under the CBT threshold then yes, they are definitely underspending on the team and have other priorities than winning. But as far as I can tell they consistendly operate at or near the CBT threshold. So the problem in my mind is not ownership spending but baseball decisionmaking. I am willing to give Buster Posey some time to prove he is better making baseball decisions than FZ.
DeleteLast season, they did not spend wisely because they went over the CBT and had a record under .500. The Giants are not obligated to operate at a loss but the competition is tapping other non-baseball sources of money even if the baseball team loses money. How the Giants spend the money is their business and $200+ million should be enough but they should not be surprised if attendance is down from pre-Covid levels. I have faith in Buster to do what is right more so than with Zaidi. I’m not advocating for the Giants to spend like the Kardashians but the Dodgers and Mets are doing it and using the deferral cheat code. It is difficult when one of the crazy spenders is in your own division.
DeleteIf the competitive balance tax spending is the yardstick, then the Giants underachieved in 2024 because they finished under .500. The problem is that two of their competitors, one of which is in their own division, are spending heavily and the Dodgers are using a deferral loophole to their advantage. Even with deferrals, the Dodgers CBT hit was over $100 million but I've read from Jack Harris in the LA Times that the Dodgers can make $50 million from Ohtani endorsements (not part of Ohtani's own endorsements) and the deferred money might net them a $800 million to $1 billion dollars over ten years if invested in Guggenheim funds.
DeleteI understand if the Giants prefer not to go that route and I'm not advocating for them to spend foolishly. However, if Harris' numbers are correct, the Dodgers could spend like Kardashians and laugh at the luxury tax. I'm not sure what the rules are regarding the deferred money or how a new CBA would affect it but it is clear that Buster has his work cut out for him and his most important advisor may well be Jeff Barry.
I don't think you can judge wise spending on the W-L record of a single season. I agree FZ did not spend wisely because he spent a lot of money with little or no longterm gain not because of the W-L record in a vacuum. Maybe you can count Matt Chapman but they ended up signing him for market price when they probably could have gotten a better deal if they signed him to a multi-year contract up front. We all know what happened with Snell. Also probably could have had him for more seasons at a lower price with a multi-year contract. The Giants have been burned badly by opt-outs and I am happy to see Buster appears to be saying no to those even if it means not signing a very good player.
DeleteI understand what Fan was saying about losing as an investment. After the 2014 championship, the Giants strategy was to "run it back" trying to squeeze every last bit out of the championship era players and trying to put together a rebuild on the fly. The competitor teams of that era were Philadelphia, Texas, Washington, Kansas City, and Detroit. Those teams did the "tank and draft" strategy while the Giants were going "two timelines" which ended up usually around .500 each year and the true rebuild can kept getting kicked down the road. Meanwhile, all of those teams seem to have recovered from their 2010's championship run more swiftly than the Giants have, two of them have gone to the World Series, the rest are up and coming. Its not clear if the two timelines strategy was mandated by Giants' front office or the ownership group but it feels more like treading water and wasted time more than anything else.
Delete"Tanking" has never been part of the Giants business plan from the day Peter Magowan headed the group that bought the team in 1993 which marked the beginning of the current ownership dynasty.
DeleteGood comments on this thread. Agree that CBT threshold is manageable if you make good baseball decisions by acquiring winning players who fit their plan on what kind of team they.want to build. Buster wants a team built on pitching/defense and signing Chapman and adames is a good start. Burnes would have been hard to sign due to CBT. According to cots the Giants CBT payroll is $205 mil while the CBT threshold is $241 mil. Differece of $36 mil. Susan slusser report probably correct that Dbacks offer was higher then Giants. CBT complicated to figure out, knowing the amount they're under CBT who would you like to see the Giants sign or trade for?
DeleteWhen Neukom was CEO, there was heavy emphasis on player development and the strategy was to use players like Buster, Timmy, Brandons as the foundation pieces and supplement sparingly using free agency. Somewhere along the line, the development piece got neglected. Luciano never made it as a shortstop even though he was anointed as the starter last season. To be frank, I’m not sure if FZ even saw Luciano play because many scouts at the time said he was not a SS. It is not just Luciano. Fitz has bad technique and Matos took bad routes. It was to the point where the Giants were doing throwing drills in September and that should have been done in spring training or in the minors. I think player development has declined because these kids are hard workers and not bad learners.
DeleteWell, this narrative ignores the fact that Gabe Kapler's prior job was director of player development for the Dodgers, no less and one of FZ's selling points was instituting an analytics-based player development regime through the entire organization or that Pete Putila's experience with the Astros, no less, was in player development. What I remember is the Giants had a hard time retaining their player development gurus because other organizations looked at their success and hired them away by offering promotions to higher positions. As for Neukom, he took over as managing partner in 2008. Brian Sabean remained the GM. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum were already in the organization. Buster and Crawford were drafted in 2008. Neukom resigned after the 2011 season after getting into a fight with the rest of the ownership group over allocation of the windfall profits from winning the World Series in 2010.
DeleteIt is hard to say what is going on but the championship core were more polished than the current youngsters. I realize a lot of fans are asking for kids to play but last year, a lot were not ready and got shuffled back and forth to Sacramento. Zaidi blamed a lot of minor league problems on Covid but that excuse doesn’t fly because 29 other teams had the same problem. That also applies to the inner city and crime excuses.
DeleteCain, Lincecum, Bum, Posey, Crawford, Belt and Pabs were a special group and it was quite a run. It may have been just random chance more than anything. Look at the Sabean era before and after. It's not like he was a genius at drafting and development his entire tenure.
Delete
DeleteHas everybody forgotten AFW, Ainsworth, Foppert, Williams? They all crashed and burned within a 2 year period. The hue and cry was that Sabean couldn't develop a prospect to save his life. Turns out it was just an incredible run of bad luck which was then followed by a run of spectacularly good luck with Cainer, Lincecum et al.
I was a big jerome Williams fan being drafted by the Giants #1. Looked up his stats for fun and had a nice career as a journey men mlb pitcher 52 wins 66 losses. Giants traded him + David Aarsdma for a good mlb reliver Latroy Hawkins. Marco Luciano if he can put it together as an outfielder could he be a game changer? I wondered last season if the Giants messed up on Lucianos development? What took them so long to move him off of shortstop. His scouting report from his early days is he should move off of SS to OF. He didn't dominate AAA as a hitter and yet he was called up. His struggles at SS were painful. Let's hope that he can be good development story like Heliot Ramos and not a Joey Bart who they gave up on. Happy New Year!
Deletewho is AFW?
DeleteAinsworth, Foppert, Williams. Three highly ranked pitching prospects from the early 2000's whose careers were derailed by injuries and underperformance within a short time span.
DeleteAlso Grilli and Soderstrom
DeleteAnd who can forget Forever Giant Boof Bonser? I don't think Grilli, Soderstrom or Bonser were ever regarded as highly as any of the AFW boys.
DeleteHas Landon Roup graduated? He may not be.
ReplyDeleteLandon Roupp had 50.1 IP so yes, he "graduated."
DeleteWe should not forget Reggie Crawford, even with his history of injuries, he is still a top prospect. APGIantsfan
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure he is. Will he ever pitch again? If he doesn't is he a hitting prospect?
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