For those of you, like me, who thought the Giants might be better off spending their available payroll on a couple of "innings eating" pitchers instead of a frontline starter, the Hot Stove League delivered a jolting dose of reality with the reported signings of two "bargain bin" pitchers to shockingly large contracts. These two pitchers were Frankie Montas RHP and Matthew Boyd LHP and let's break it down:
The first shoe to drop was Frankie Montas to the Mets for a reported 2 yrs/$34 M divided evenly into $17 M each season, but with an opt-out after the 2025 season. Montas missed much of 2022 and all of 2023 with injuries and underwent shoulder labrum surgery in Feb 2023. The Reds signed him to a "pillow" contract for 1 yr/$14 M with a mutual option for 2024 and a $2 M buyout giving him a total of $16 M for the one season. He was traded to the Brewers at the trade deadline.
2024(2 teams): 7-11, 4.84, 150.2 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 0.6 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR.
His K rate took a jump after the trade and his ERA improved from 5.01 with the Reds to 4.55 but his bWAR value with the Brewers was 0.0. So, he did eat innings last year but overall they were not great innings. Granted, both of his home ballparks are very hitter-friendly and maybe that's what the Mets are counting on? They are paying him considerably more the MLBTR projection of 2 yr/$22 M.
Matthew Boyd signed a 2 yr/29 M contract with an additional $1 M in performance bonuses. Boyd was sort of a league-average pitcher for the Tigers before his career was derailed by injuries. He underwent surgery for a torn flexor tendon in 2021. He was actually signed as a free agent by the Giants in March 2022 as one of FZ's reclamation projects. He was then traded to the Mariners along with Curt Casali C for Michael Stryfeller RHP and Andy Thomas C/1B on 8/2/2022 before he even pitches in a rehab assignment. Memba that? He made 10 relief appearances for the Mariners and then signed a free agent contract with the Tigers in 2023 but underwent Tommy John surgery around mid-season. He the signed a free agent contract with the Guardians for 2024 and made 8 starts late last season with a fine 2.72 ERA. Boyd and the Cubs now hope his injury siege is over and he will continue pitching like he did last season.
The common denominator for free agent pitchers signed so far is they all are not attached to a Qualifying Offer. Per MLBTR, there are now just 4 pitchers without QO's projected to get multi-year contracts left on the market: Jack Flaherty RHP, Nathan Eovaldi RHP, Andrew Heaney LHP and Jose Quintana LHP and one has to wonder what kinds of a huge contract Flaherty is going to get after seeing these numbers for Montas and Boyd. And all those young pitchers on the Giants 40-man roster who may or may not be ready to break out in 2025? Buster Posey must be looking at them through much rosier colored glasses today.
MLB "excitement" last 10 days (from MLBTR):
ReplyDeleteRed Sox To Sign Aroldis Chapman To 1-Year Deal
Rangers Sign Kyle Higashioka To 2-Year Deal
Cubs To Sign Matthew Boyd To 2-Year Deal
Mets To Sign Frankie Montas To 2-Year Deal
Dodgers Sign Blake Snell To 5-Year Deal
Dodgers Extend Tommy Edman For 5 Years
Brandon Crawford Announces Retirement
Angels Sign Yusei Kikuchi To 3-Year Deal
Posting Window For Hyeseong Kim Likely To Begin Next Week
Teams Expected To Make Offers To Juan Soto This Week
Rockies Sign Kyle Farmer To 1-Year Deal
Reds, Royals Finalize Trade Involving Brady Singer, Jonathan India
Grant Brisbee commented yesterday that the Giants "let Blake Snell leave to sign with the Dodgers."
Yeah Grant, Buster didn't beat a five-year, $182 million deal, or he did and Snell decided to sign with a winner, "the reigning World Series champs, who are -- to borrow a phrase -- light years ahead of their longtime rival." (Quote from https://www.nbcsportsbayarea.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/blake-snell-los-angeles-dodgers-contract-free-agency/1808093/).
The Giants have avoided long-term deals for older starters, being very right with Carlos Rodón and mostly wrong with Kevin Gausman.
My thought's been 1 year of Buehler during which figure out if it looks like a good '26 rotation may already be in hand among Webb, Ray, Harrison, Hicks, Birdsong, Wisenhunt, Roupp, Black, McDonald, other Carsons etc. and if not, back to FA market next year. Was expecting that Buehler year to cost $15MM, but now with these signings I guess more like 20, still works towards payroll reduction by being well under Snell pay '24
ReplyDeleteI agree. Even though I am not a big fan of Beuhler I am bullish on his performance for next season and would be willing to risk an overpay on him.
DeleteAccording to RosterResource, the Giants have a million or so less than $60M to spend and stay under the first luxury tax threshold for 2025, $241M.
ReplyDeleteAccording to MLBTR: "Buehler is perhaps the top reclamation project in this year’s rotation class."
He might accept a 1-year prove-it and where better to do that than Oracle? Sounds like something FZ would do. Would he influence his new team which may well be LAD!
Can the Giants do $20M there and still address a good middle IFer and a RH RFer?
I hope this is a good sign for the trade values for our young pitchers.
ReplyDeleteFor those who thought that maybe the Giants could have signed Snell: He wanted to play in LA and the Dodgers gave him far more money than he was going to get from the Giants, or, as it turned out, anyone else, beating MLBTR's predicted contracts by $22M, nearly 15%.
ReplyDeleteRead "Blake Snell says decision to join Dodgers":
"It was really easy, just because me and [partner] Haeley wanted to live here," Snell said of his decision to join the Dodgers. "It's something we've been talking about for a while. And when you look at the team, you look at what they've built, what they're doing, it's just something you want to be a part of. Look at the first three hitters in the lineup. It's tough to go against. So to be on the other side and know they're going to be hitting for me, it's pretty exciting."
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42764654/los-angeles-dodgers-introduce-blake-snell-calls-decision-sign-really-easy
Exceeding MLB's thresholds for luxury tax hasn't worked out so well for the Giants, not in 2024 or the last time they did it in 2018.
To be relevant in 2025, the Giants would have to "buy" Burnes, Soto, Alonso, and Adames and then pray. A lot.
I’m OK with not getting a pitcher this offseason. We have enough internal options that need a chance to prove themselves that we should be able to get through the first half of the season without picking anyone significant up. Make a trade then or address it next offseason. A bat or three on the other hand is non negotiable
ReplyDeleteIMO, the Giants need at least one more veteran SP going into next season but may have to shop in the "Brebbia Aisle" as the main writer of The San Francisco Giants Blog would put it. Someone like Cal Quantrill whose ERA my have been inflated by the Coors Field effect last season. Sugano, the veteran pitcher from Japan is also interesting. I would also look into Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer.
DeleteBuehler seems like potentially the highest ceiling at the lowest price but with some injury risk.
DeleteAfter what Severino just signed for I think I’m good with who we have inhouse just sign some bats and we can find a rotation from within or trade for an arm during the season
ReplyDelete