Friday, April 21, 2017

Scouting the 2017 Draft: BA's Mock Draft 2.0

BA has a new mock draft up with a complete first round prognostication.  Let's review them and I will offer some comments.  Overall, I would characterize this draft as terrible at the top but reasonably deep with interesting players looking like they will fall into the 2'nd round.  Here's BA's mock:

1.  Twins:  Brendan McKay, LHP, College, Louisville-  McKay is a great 2-way college player, but strikes me as being not great on either side of the ball.  I actually like him a bit better as a hitter, but he's limited to 1B on offense.  Pitchers who can hit and play some in the field seem to be the wave of the future, but not sure how that helps an AL team.  If I am the Twins GM, I have Hunter Greene and JB Bakauskas ahead of McKay on my board with Adam Hasely sneaking into the mix.

2.  Reds:  Hunter Greene, RHP, HS- Reds reportedly desperately want McKay.  Twins will be doing them a favor if they take him at #1.  If you are not scared off by hard throwing HS pitchers, Greene is the real deal.  He reaches triple digits with the FB and looks a lot like Bob Gibson when he delivers the ball.  Greene reportedly wants to fall to the Padres which is why he has scaled back his pitching and is showcasing at SS lately.  He's going to be drafted as a pitcher.  Reds could also consider Bakauskas, Jeren Kendall or Hasely here.

3.  Padres:  Royce Lewis, SS/OF, HS- If Greene is off the board, the Padres could look to the toolsiest player in the draft.  Personally I have questions about the hit tool which makes Lewis a high risk/high reward pick.  If they want tools and a questionable bat, Kendall would be a safer pick here and I like Adam Hasely a bit better than Kendall.

4.  Rays:  Kyle Wright, RHP, College, Vanderbilt- The scouts seem to love his stuff, but it hasn't translated to dominant starts in the college season.  BA has Bakauskas falling to #6.  I take him over Wright and again, I love me some Adam Hasely.

5.  Braves:  Austin Beck, OF, HS- Beck has caught helium during the HS season.  Braves aren't afraid to gamble on high upside HS talent.  This seems like a good spot for both Beck and the Braves.

6.  A's:  JB Bakauskas, RHP, College, North Carolina- I think Bakauskas should be a top 3 pick, but if he is still on the board, the A's get a steal.

7.  D'Backs:  Mackenzie Gore, LHP, HS- Gore seems to be shooting up draft boards with scouts raving about his stuff.  Unless his velocity has taken a big jump, I'm not seeing it.  Shane Baz, for one, would be higher on my board.  They could also consider one of several HS SS's and here comes the broken record…..Adam Hasely seems like a D'Backs type of pick.  Have I said how much I like Adam Hasely?

8.  Phillies:  Pavin Smith, 1B, College, Virginia- The Phils are known for drafting toolsy HS players, but they are under new management.  Pavin is stuck at 1B, but he's a good hitter.  If they want a college hitter, they would be better off taking Hasely if he's on the board.

9.  Brewers:  Jeren Kendall, OF, College, Vanderbilt- IDK if Kendall will fall this far, but his college K rate give saber oriented analysts the jitters.  Brewers seem to like toolsy OF's and don't seem to care about K rates, so this would be a nice fit if Kendall is on the board.  Brewers should consider pitching here and Shane Baz would be a nice fit.

10.  Angels:  Alex Faedo, RHP, College, Florida- I see Faedo as being more of an innings eater than an ace.  Angels seem to like that kind of pitcher.  The Angels might swing for the fences and try for another Mike Trout with any number of HS OF's or SS's.

11.  White Sox:  Jordan Adell, OF, HS- Highes ceiling/highest risk player in the draft IMO.  If he can hit, he'll be a superstar.  That's a big question though.  Sox are known for taking toolsy HS players.  They have a new guy in the GM chair, though.

12.  Pirates:  Adam Hasely, OF, College, Virginia- Here's my guy!  If Hasely is still on the board, the Pirates have the steal of the draft.

13.  Marlins:  Seth Romero, LHP, College, Houston- Romero has talent but also has 2 suspensions by his college coach on his record and a history of conditioning issues.  I would have him on my draft board at all.

14.  Royals:  Shane Baz, RHP, HS- Dayton Moore loves him some HS talent and Baz would be a great choice here if he's on the board.  Again there is a nice stable of HS SS's and OF's that should be available here too.

15.  Astros:  Clarke Schmidt, RHP, College, South Carolina- High floor/low ceiling college pitcher.

16.  Yankees:  Nick Pratto, 1B/OF, HS.  Pratto has a sweet swing, but he looks like a 1B to me and I don't see the power although he is a LH batter and there's that short porch in Yankee Stadium.  He also pitches but will be drafted as a hitter.

17.  Mariners:  Alex Lange, RHP, College, LSU- Throws hard, but limited repertoire and inconsistent college performance.  Keith Law thinks he's a reliever in the pros.

18.  Tigers:  Griffin Canning, RHP, College, UCLA- pitchability guy.  I just don't see him as having first round stuff.

19.  Giants:  DL Hall, LHP, HS-  Hard throwing HS lefty.  I personally like Trevor Rogers' projectability more, but Hall seems to be higher ranked by most scouts.  If the Giants are not dead set on pitching with this pick, Logan Warmoth, SS for North Carolina seems like a perfect Giantsy pick.

20.  Mets:  Keston Hiura, 2B, College, UC Irvine- Hiura his hitting up a storm for UC Irvine but has a weak arm and a bum elbow and is going to be limited to 2B or 1B going forward.  You have to really love the bat to make him a first rounder.

21.  Orioles:  Logan Warmoth, SS, College, North Carolina- I haven't profiled him yet, but he rising on draft boards.  Think a switch-hitting Joe Panik with a lot more speed.  Giants need more pitching in the organization but Warmoth seems like the perfect Giants pick at #19.

22.  Blue Jays:  Jake Burger, 3B, College, Missouri St.- Good hitter, bad body.  OK pick for an AL team.

23.  Dodgers:  Heliot Ramos, OF, HS(PR)- Dodgers can afford to take a risk with the pick and Ramos has as high a ceiling as anyone in the draft.

24.  Red Sox:  Hagen Danner, C/SS/RHP, HS- Danner seems like a tweener to me, but the scouts seem to really like him, more as a pitcher than position player.

25.  Nationals:  Brady McConnell, SS, HS- McConnell's stock seems to have slipped, but he reminds me of a young Tulo.  He would be a steal at #25, IMO.

26.  Rangers:  David Peterson, LHP, College, Oregon St.-  Peterson has emerged as the second best performing college LHP in the draft.  Not sure about his stuff.

27.  Cubs:  Tanner Houck, RHP, College, Missouri- Houck's velocity has tailed off and so has his performance.  Not sure the Cubs would take him even at #27.  I guess it depends on whether they think he can regain velocity and if they can fix his mechanics.

28.  Blue Jays:  Wil Crowe, RHP, College, South Carolina- I actually like Crowe more than Clarke Schmidt who BA has much higher in this mock draft.

29.  Rangers:  Mark Vientos, SS, HS- Vientos has great size which will probably move him off SS in the future, but I really like his power upside and this would be a great pick for the Rangers.

30.  Cubs- Nate Pearson, RHP, JC- Pearson would likely be a project but has been hitting triple digits with some regularity.

Players I like who are not in this mock draft:  Ricardo De La Torre SS HS, Trevor Rogers LHP HS, Conor Uselton OF HS, Calvin Mitchell OF HS, Garrett Mitchell OF HS, Alex Scherff RHP HS, Brendon Little LHP JC.

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